Assessing influence in survival data with a cure fraction and covariates

Diagnostic methods have been an important tool in regression analysis to detect anomalies, such as departures from error assumptions and the presence of outliers and influential observations with the fitted models. Assuming censored data, we considered a classical analysis and Bayesian analysis assuming no informative priors for the parameters of the model with a cure fraction. A Bayesian approach was considered by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods with Metropolis-Hasting algorithms steps to obtain the posterior summaries of interest. Some influence methods, such as the local influence, total local influence of an individual, local influence on predictions and generalized leverage were derived, analyzed and discussed in survival data with a cure fraction and covariates. The relevance of the approach was illustrated with a real data set, where it is shown that, by removing the most influential observations, the decision about which model best fits the data is changed.

Generalized log-gamma regression models with cure fraction

In this paper, the generalized log-gamma regression model is modified to allow the possibility that long-term survivors may be present in the data. This modification leads to a generalized log-gamma regression model with a cure rate, encompassing, as special cases, the log-exponential, log-Weibull and log-normal regression models with a cure rate typically used to model such data. The models attempt to simultaneously estimate the effects of explanatory variables on the timing acceleration/deceleration of a given event and the surviving fraction, that is, the proportion of the population for which the event never occurs. The normal curvatures of local influence are derived under some usual perturbation schemes and two martingale-type residuals are proposed to assess departures from the generalized log-gamma error assumption as well as to detect outlying observations. Finally, a data set from the medical area is analyzed.

A Bayesian Long-term Survival Model Parametrized in the Cured Fraction

The main goal of this paper is to investigate a cure rate model that comprehends some well-known proposals found in the literature. In our work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. The model is conveniently reparametrized through the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates by means of the logistic link. We explore the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in the proposed model. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example.

A general hazard model for lifetime data in the presence of cure rate

Historically, the cure rate model has been used for modeling time-to-event data within which a significant proportion of patients are assumed to be cured of illnesses, including breast cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, leukemia, prostate cancer, melanoma, and head and neck cancer. Perhaps the most popular type of cure rate model is the mixture model introduced by Berkson and Gage [1]. In this model, it is assumed that a certain proportion of the patients are cured, in the sense that they do not present the event of interest during a long period of time and can found to be immune to the cause of failure under study. In this paper, we propose a general hazard model which accommodates comprehensive families of cure rate models as particular cases, including the model proposed by Berkson and Gage. The maximum-likelihood-estimation procedure is discussed. A simulation study analyzes the coverage probabilities of the asymptotic confidence intervals for the parameters. A real data set on children exposed to HIV by vertical transmission illustrates the methodology.

A flexible model for survival data with a cure rate: a Bayesian approach

In this paper we deal with a Bayesian analysis for right-censored survival data suitable for populations with a cure rate. We consider a cure rate model based on the negative binomial distribution, encompassing as a special case the promotion time cure model. Bayesian analysis is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We also present some discussion on model selection and an illustration with a real dataset.

Regression models for grouped survival data: Estimation and sensitivity analysis

In this study, regression models are evaluated for grouped survival data when the effect of censoring time is considered in the model and the regression structure is modeled through four link functions. The methodology for grouped survival data is based on life tables, and the times are grouped in k intervals so that ties are eliminated. Thus, the data modeling is performed by considering the discrete models of lifetime regression. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood and jackknife methods. To detect influential observations in the proposed models, diagnostic measures based on case deletion, which are denominated global influence, and influence measures based on small perturbations in the data or in the model, referred to as local influence, are used. In addition to those measures, the local influence and the total influential estimate are also employed. Various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the four link functions of the regression models for grouped survival data for different parameter settings, sample sizes and numbers of intervals. Finally, a data set is analyzed by using the proposed regression models. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

TRAVELLING THROUGH PITCH SPACE SPEEDS UP MUSICAL TIME

SEVERAL MODELS OF TIME ESTIMATION HAVE BEEN developed in psychology; a few have been applied to music. In the present study, we assess the influence of the distances travelled through pitch space on retrospective time estimation. Participants listened to an isochronous chord sequence of 20-s duration. They were unexpectedly asked to reproduce the time interval of the sequence. The harmonic structure of the stimulus was manipulated so that the sequence either remained in the same key (CC) or travelled through a closely related key (CFC) or distant key (CGbC). Estimated times were shortened when the sequence modulated to a very distant key. This finding is discussed in light of Lerdahl's Tonal Pitch Space Theory (2001), Firmino and Bueno's Expected Development Fraction Model (in press), and models of time estimation.

The generalized log-gamma mixture model with covariates: local influence and residual analysis

In a sample of censored survival times, the presence of an immune proportion of individuals who are not subject to death, failure or relapse, may be indicated by a relatively high number of individuals with large censored survival times. In this paper the generalized log-gamma model is modified for the possibility that long-term survivors may be present in the data. The model attempts to separately estimate the effects of covariates on the surviving fraction, that is, the proportion of the population for which the event never occurs. The logistic function is used for the regression model of the surviving fraction. Inference for the model parameters is considered via maximum likelihood. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. Finally, a data set from the medical area is analyzed under the log-gamma generalized mixture model. A residual analysis is performed in order to select an appropriate model.

Rabbit Retinal Neovascularization Induced by Latex Angiogenic-Derived Fraction: An Experimental Model

Purpose: To create a retinal neovascularization experimental model using intravitreal injection of microspheres loaded with latex-derived angiogenic fraction. Methods: Thirty-two albino New Zealand rabbits, divided in 4 groups of 8 animals, were enrolled in this study. Rabbits in groups I, II, and III received one intravitreal injection of PLGA (L-lactide-co-glycolide) microspheres with 10, 30, and 50 mu g of latex-derived angiogenic fraction into their right eyes, respectively, and group IV received 0.1 ml of microspheres without the angiogenic fraction. Weekly follow-up with ophthalmoscopy and fluorescein angiography was performed; the rabbits were sacrificed in the 4th week and their eyes processed for light microscopy. Results: All eyes from group I demonstrated increased retinal vascular tortuosity, observed from 14 days after injection and maintained for 28 days, otherwise without new vessels detection. All group II eyes showed vascular changes similar to group I. Fifty percent of the eyes from group II rabbits developed retinal neovascularization 21 days after injection. All eyes from group III demonstrated significant vascular tortuosity and retinal new vessels 2 weeks after injection, progressing to fibrovascular proliferation and tractional retinal detachment. No vascular changes or retinal new vessels were observed in group IV eyes. Light microscopy confirmed the existence of new vessels previously seen on fluorescein angiography, in retinal sections adjacent to the optic disc, not observed in sections at the same area in the control group. Conclusion: Thirty- and 50-mu g microspheres containing latex-derived angiogenic fraction injected into the vitreous cavity induced retinal neovascularization in rabbits.

Relatedness and HLA-DRB1 typing may discriminate the magnitude of the genetic susceptibility to tuberculosis using a household contact model

Background Tuberculosis clusters in families may be due to increased household exposure, shared genetic factors, or both. Household contact studies are useful to control exposure because socioeconomic and environmental conditions are similar to all subjects, allowing the evaluation of the contribution of relatedness to disease development. Methods In this study, the familial aggregation of tuberculosis using relatedness and a specific inherited marker (HLA-DRB1) was evaluated. Fifty families, which had at least two cases of tuberculosis diagnosed within the past 5 years, were selected from a cohort of tuberculosis carried out in Recife, Brazil. The first case diagnosed was considered to be a primary case. The secondary attack rate of tuberculosis in household contacts was estimated according to the degree of relatedness. The relative risk of having tuberculosis based on the degree of relatedness household and the population attributable fraction to relatedness were also estimated. HLA-DRB1 typing and attributable etiologic/preventive fractions were calculated among sick and healthy household contacts. Results Compared to unrelated contacts, the relative risk for tuberculosis adjusted for age was 1.38 (95% CI 0.86 to 2.21). Relatedness contributed 23% to the development of tuberculosis at the population levels. The HLA-DRB1*04 allele group (OR = 2.44; p =0.0324; etiologic fraction =0.15) was overrepresented and the DRB1*15 allele group (OR=0.48; p=0.0488; protective fraction=0.19) was underrepresented among household contacts exhibiting tuberculosis. The presence of DRB1 shared alleles between primary cases and their contacts was a risk factor for tuberculosis (p=0.0281). Conclusion This household contact model together with the utilisation of two genetic variables permitted the evaluation of genetic factors contributing towards tuberculosis development.

Phase transitions and spatially ordered counterion association in ionic-lipid membranes: A statistical model

We propose a statistical model to account for the gel-fluid anomalous phase transitions in charged bilayer- or lamellae-forming ionic lipids. The model Hamiltonian comprises effective attractive interactions to describe neutral-lipid membranes as well as the effect of electrostatic repulsions of the discrete ionic charges on the lipid headgroups. The latter can be counterion dissociated (charged) or counterion associated (neutral), while the lipid acyl chains may be in gel (low-temperature or high-lateral-pressure) or fluid (high-temperature or low-lateral-pressure) states. The system is modeled as a lattice gas with two distinct particle types-each one associated, respectively, with the polar-headgroup and the acyl-chain states-which can be mapped onto an Ashkin-Teller model with the inclusion of cubic terms. The model displays a rich thermodynamic behavior in terms of the chemical potential of counterions (related to added salt concentration) and lateral pressure. In particular, we show the existence of semidissociated thermodynamic phases related to the onset of charge order in the system. This type of order stems from spatially ordered counterion association to the lipid headgroups, in which charged and neutral lipids alternate in a checkerboard-like order. Within the mean-field approximation, we predict that the acyl-chain order-disorder transition is discontinuous, with the first-order line ending at a critical point, as in the neutral case. Moreover, the charge order gives rise to continuous transitions, with the associated second-order lines joining the aforementioned first-order line at critical end points. We explore the thermodynamic behavior of some physical quantities, like the specific heat at constant lateral pressure and the degree of ionization, associated with the fraction of charged lipid headgroups.

Phase fraction distribution measurement of oil-water flow using a capacitance wire-mesh sensor

In this paper, a novel wire-mesh sensor based on permittivity (capacitance) measurements is applied to generate images of the phase fraction distribution and investigate the flow of viscous oil and water in a horizontal pipe. Phase fraction values were calculated from the raw data delivered by the wire-mesh sensor using different mixture permittivity models. Furthermore, these data were validated against quick-closing valve measurements. Investigated flow patterns were dispersion of oil in water (Do/w) and dispersion of oil in water and water in oil (Do/w&w/o). The Maxwell-Garnett mixing model is better suited for Dw/o and the logarithmic model for Do/w&w/o flow pattern. Images of the time-averaged cross-sectional oil fraction distribution along with axial slice images were used to visualize and disclose some details of the flow.

In vitro characterization of rosiglitazone metabolites and determination of the kinetic parameters employing rat liver microsomal fraction

Rosiglitazone (RSG), a thiazolidinedione antidiabetic drug, is metabolized by CYP450 enzymes into two main metabolites: N-desmethyl rosiglitazone (N-Dm-R) and rho-hydroxy rosiglitazone (rho-OH-R). In humans, CYP2C8 appears to have a major role in RSG metabolism. On the other hand, the in vitro metabolism of RSG in animals has not been described in literature yet. Based on these concerns, the kinetic metabolism study of RSG using rat liver microsomal fraction is described for the first time. Maximum velocity (V (max)) values of 87.29 and 51.09 nmol/min/mg protein were observed for N-Dm-R and rho-OH-R, respectively. Michaelis-Menten constant (K (m)) values were of 58.12 and 78.52 mu M for N-Dm-R and rho-OH-R, respectively. Therefore, these results demonstrated that this in vitro metabolism model presents the capacity of forming higher levels of N-Dm-R than of rho-OH-R, which also happens in humans. Three other metabolites were identified employing mass spectrometry detection under positive electrospray ionization: ortho-hydroxy-rosiglitazone (omicron-OH-R) and two isomers of N-desmethyl hydroxy-rosiglitazone. These metabolites have also been observed in humans. The results observed in this study indicate that rats could be a satisfactory model for RSG metabolism.

Influence of Estrogen Deficiency on Bone Around Osseointegrated Dental Implants: An Experimental Study in the Rat Jaw Model

Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of estrogen deficiency on bone around osseointegrated dental implants in a rat jaw model. Materials and Methods: This study used 16 female rats that had the first molars bilaterally extracted and were allowed to heal for 30 days before implant placement. Sixty days after implant placement, the animals were randomly subjected to sham surgery or ovariectomy (OVX). The animals were euthanized 90 days after OVX. Bone-to-implant contact, bone area fraction occupancy between implant threads, mineral density, turnover markers, and cells positive for tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase were assessed for the 2 groups. Results: The results showed that OVX group presented a decrease of systemic bone density, alterations in bone turnover markers, and an increase of cells positive for tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase compared with the sham-surgery group. However, no difference relative to bone-to-implant contact and bone area fraction occupancy was observed between groups. Conclusions: The findings of this study demonstrate that estrogen deficiency may not be considered a risk factor for osseointegrated implant failure in jaw bone. (C) 2011 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons J Oral Maxillofac Surg 69:1911-1918, 2011

Systemic chemotherapy-induced microsatellite instability in the mononuclear cell fraction of women with breast cancer can be reproduced in vitro and abrogated by amifostine

Objectives Microsatellite instability (MSI) induction by alkylating agent-based chemotherapy (ACHT) may underlie both tumor resistance to chemotherapy and secondary leukaemias in cancer patients. We investigated if ACHT could induce MSI in tumor-derived plasma-circulating DNA (pfDNA) and in normal peripheral blood mononuclear (PBMN) cells. We also evaluated if amifostine could interfere with this process in an in-vitro model. Methods MSI was determined in pfDNA, PBMN cells and urine cell-free DNA (ufDNA) of 33 breast cancer patients before and after ACHT. MCF-7 cells and PBMN from normal donors were exposed in vitro to melphalan, with or without amifostine. Results We observed at least one MSI event in PBMN cells, pfDNA or ufDNA of 87, 80 and 80% of patients, respectively. In vitro, melphalan induced MSI in both MCF-7 and normal PBMN cells. In PBMN cells, ACHT-induced MSI occurred together with a significant decrease in the expression of the DNA mismatch repair gene hMSH2. Amifostine decreased hMSH2 expression and also prevented MSI induction only in normal PBMN cells. Conclusions ACHT induced MSI in PBMN cells and in tumour-derived pfDNA. Because of its protective effect against ACHT induction of MSI in normal PBMN cells in vitro, amifostine may be a potential agent for preventing secondary leukaemias in patients exposed to ACHT.