A Model for comparing reduced impact logging with conventional logging for an Eastern Amazonian Forest

Using data from a logging experiment in the eastern Brazilian Amazon region, we develop a matrix growth and yield model that captures the dynamic effects of harvest system choice on forest structure and composition. Multinomial logistic regression is used to estimate the growth transition parameters for a 10-year time step, while a Poisson regression model is used to estimate recruitment parameters. The model is designed to be easily integrated with an economic model of decisionmaking to perform tropical forest policy analysis. The model is used to compare the long-run structure and composition of a stand arising from the choice of implementing either conventional logging techniques or more carefully planned and executed reduced-impact logging (RIL) techniques, contrasted against a baseline projection of an unlogged forest. Results from log and leave scenarios show that a stand logged according to Brazilian management requirements will require well over 120 years to recover its initial commercial volume, regardless of logging technique employed. Implementing RIL, however, accelerates this recovery. Scenarios imposing a 40-year cutting cycle raise the possibility of sustainable harvest volumes, although at significantly lower levels than is implied by current regulations. Meeting current Brazilian forest policy goals may require an increase in the planned total area of permanent production forest or the widespread adoption of silvicultural practices that increase stand recovery and volume accumulation rates after RIL harvests. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Evaluation of FAO Penman-Monteith and alternative methods for estimating reference evapotranspiration with missing data in Southern Ontario, Canada

Grass reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important agrometeorological parameter for climatological and hydrological studies, as well as for irrigation planning and management. There are several methods to estimate ETo, but their performance in different environments is diverse, since all of them have some empirical background. The FAO Penman-Monteith (FAD PM) method has been considered as a universal standard to estimate ETo for more than a decade. This method considers many parameters related to the evapotranspiration process: net radiation (Rn), air temperature (7), vapor pressure deficit (Delta e), and wind speed (U); and has presented very good results when compared to data from lysimeters Populated with short grass or alfalfa. In some conditions, the use of the FAO PM method is restricted by the lack of input variables. In these cases, when data are missing, the option is to calculate ETo by the FAD PM method using estimated input variables, as recommended by FAD Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56. Based on that, the objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of the FAO PM method to estimate ETo when Rn, Delta e, and U data are missing, in Southern Ontario, Canada. Other alternative methods were also tested for the region: Priestley-Taylor, Hargreaves, and Thornthwaite. Data from 12 locations across Southern Ontario, Canada, were used to compare ETo estimated by the FAD PM method with a complete data set and with missing data. The alternative ETo equations were also tested and calibrated for each location. When relative humidity (RH) and U data were missing, the FAD PM method was still a very good option for estimating ETo for Southern Ontario, with RMSE smaller than 0.53 mm day(-1). For these cases, U data were replaced by the normal values for the region and Delta e was estimated from temperature data. The Priestley-Taylor method was also a good option for estimating ETo when U and Delta e data were missing, mainly when calibrated locally (RMSE = 0.40 mm day(-1)). When Rn was missing, the FAD PM method was not good enough for estimating ETo, with RMSE increasing to 0.79 mm day(-1). When only T data were available, adjusted Hargreaves and modified Thornthwaite methods were better options to estimate ETo than the FAO) PM method, since RMSEs from these methods, respectively 0.79 and 0.83 mm day(-1), were significantly smaller than that obtained by FAO PM (RMSE = 1.12 mm day(-1). (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models

The objective of the present study was to estimate milk yield genetic parameters applying random regression models and parametric correlation functions combined with a variance function to model animal permanent environmental effects. A total of 152,145 test-day milk yields from 7,317 first lactations of Holstein cows belonging to herds located in the southeastern region of Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were divided into 44 weekly classes of days in milk. Contemporary groups were defined by herd-test-day comprising a total of 2,539 classes. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental, and residual random effects. The following fixed effects were considered: contemporary group, age of cow at calving (linear and quadratic regressions), and the population average lactation curve modeled by fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. Additive genetic effects were modeled by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials of days in milk, whereas permanent environmental effects were estimated using a stationary or nonstationary parametric correlation function combined with a variance function of different orders. The structure of residual variances was modeled using a step function containing 6 variance classes. The genetic parameter estimates obtained with the model using a stationary correlation function associated with a variance function to model permanent environmental effects were similar to those obtained with models employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials for the same effect. A model using a sixth-order polynomial for additive effects and a stationary parametric correlation function associated with a seventh-order variance function to model permanent environmental effects would be sufficient for data fitting.

Genetic population data of 12 STR loci of the PowerPlex (R) Y system in the state of Sao Paulo population (Southeast of Brazil)

Allele frequency distributions and population data for 12 Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats (STRs) included in the PowerPlex (R) Y Systems (Promega) were obtained for a sample of 200 healthy unrelated males living in S (a) over tildeo Paulo State (Southeast of Brazil). A total of 192 haplotypes were identified, of which 184 were unique and 8 were found in 2 individuals. The average gene diversity of the 12 Y-STR was 0.6746 and the haplotype diversity was 0.9996. Pairwise analysis confirmed that our population is more similar with the Italy, North Portugal and Spain, being more distant of the Japan. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Brazilian Network of Food Data Systems and LATINFOODS Regional Technical Compilation Committee: Food composition activities (2006-2009)

The Brazilian Network of Food Data Systems (BRASILFOODS) has been keeping the Brazilian Food Composition Database-USP (TBCA-USP) (http://www.fcf.usp.br/tabela) since 1998. Besides the constant compilation, analysis and update work in the database, the network tries to innovate through the introduction of food information that may contribute to decrease the risk for non-transmissible chronic diseases, such as the profile of carbohydrates and flavonoids in foods. In 2008, data on carbohydrates, individually analyzed, of 112 foods, and 41 data related to the glycemic response produced by foods widely consumed in the country were included in the TBCA-USP. Data (773) about the different flavonoid subclasses of 197 Brazilian foods were compiled and the quality of each data was evaluated according to the USDAs data quality evaluation system. In 2007, BRASILFOODS/USP and INFOODS/FAO organized the 7th International Food Data Conference ""Food Composition and Biodiversity"". This conference was a unique opportunity for interaction between renowned researchers and participants from several countries and it allowed the discussion of aspects that may improve the food composition area. During the period, the LATINFOODS Regional Technical Compilation Committee and BRASILFOODS disseminated to Latin America the Form and Manual for Data Compilation, version 2009, ministered a Food Composition Data Compilation course and developed many activities related to data production and compilation. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?

In a recent thought-provoking paper, Ball and Sheridan [Ball, L., Sheridan, N., 2005. Does inflation targeting matter? In: Bernanke, B.S., Woodford, M. (Eds.), The Inflation-Targeting Debate, University of Chicago Press] show that the available evidence for a group of developed economies does not lend credence to the belief that adopting an inflation targeting regime (IT) was instrumental in bringing inflation and inflation volatility down. Here, we extend Ball and Sheridan`s analysis for a subset of 36 emerging market economies and find that, for them, the story is quite different. Compared to non-targeters, developing countries adopting the IT regime not only experienced greater drops in inflation, but also in growth volatility, thus corroborating the view that the regime`s ""constrained flexibility"" to deal with adverse shocks delivered concrete welfare gains. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Complete assignments of (1)H and (13)C NMR spectral data for 7,7 `-dihydroarylnaphthalene lignan lactones

In this article we present a complete (1)H and (13)C NMR spectral analysis of three 7,7`-dihydroarylnaphthalene lignan lactones using modern NMR techniques such as COSY, HSQC, HMBC and NOE experiments. Complete assignment and homonuclear hydrogen coupling constant measurements were performed. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Usefulness of Proteinuria as a Prognostic Marker of Mortality and Cardiovascular Events Among Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (Data from the Evaluation of Oral Xemilofiban in Controlling Thrombotic Events [EXCITE] Trial)

Proteinuria was associated with cardiovascular events and mortality in community-based cohorts. The association of proteinuria with mortality and cardiovascular events in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) was unknown. The association of urinary dipstick proteinuria with mortality and cardiovascular events (composite of death, myocardial infarction, or nonhemorrhagic stroke) in 5,835 subjects of the EXCITE trial was evaluated. Dipstick urinalysis was performed before PCI, and proteinuria was defined as trace or greater. Subjects were followed up for 210 days/7 months after enrollment for the occurrence of events. Multivariate Cox regression analysis evaluated the independent association of proteinuria with each outcome. Mean age was 59 years, 21% were women, 18% had diabetes mellitus, and mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was 90 ml/min/1.73 m(2). Proteinuria was present in 750 patients (13%). During follow-up, 22 subjects (2.9%) with proteinuria and 54 subjects (1.1%) without proteinuria died (adjusted hazard ratio 2.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.65 to 4.84, p <0.001). The severity of proteinuria attenuated the strength of the association with mortality after PCI (low-grade proteinuria, hazard ratio 2.67, 95% CI 1.50 to 4.75; high-grade proteinuria, hazard ratio 3.76, 95% CI 1.24 to 11.37). No significant association was present for cardiovascular events during the relatively short follow-up, but high-grade proteinuria tended toward increased risk of cardiovascular events (hazard ratio 1.45, 95% CI 0.81 to 2.61). In conclusion, proteinuria was strongly and independently associated with mortality in patients undergoing PCI. These data suggest that such a relatively simple and clinically easy to use tool as urinary dipstick may be useful to identify and treat patients at high risk of mortality at the time of PCI. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. (Am J Cardiol 2008;102:1151-1155)

Long-term safety and efficacy of percutaneous coronary intervention with stenting and coronary artery bypass surgery for multivessel coronary artery disease - A meta-analysis with 5-year patient-level data from the ARTS, ERACI-II, MASS-II, and SoS trials

Background-Randomized trials that studied clinical outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with bare metal stenting versus coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) are underpowered to properly assess safety end points like death, stroke, and myocardial infarction. Pooling data from randomized controlled trials increases the statistical power and allows better assessment of the treatment effect in high-risk subgroups. Methods and Results-We performed a pooled analysis of 3051 patients in 4 randomized trials evaluating the relative safety and efficacy of PCI with stenting and CABG at 5 years for the treatment of multivessel coronary artery disease. The primary end point was the composite end point of death, stroke, or myocardial infarction. The secondary end point was the occurrence of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular accidents, death, stroke, myocardial infarction, and repeat revascularization. We tested for heterogeneities in treatment effect in patient subgroups. At 5 years, the cumulative incidence of death, myocardial infarction, and stroke was similar in patients randomized to PCI with stenting versus CABG (16.7% versus 16.9%, respectively; hazard ratio, 1.04, 95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 1.27; P = 0.69). Repeat revascularization, however, occurred significantly more frequently after PCI than CABG (29.0% versus 7.9%, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.18 to 0.29; P<0.001). Major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events were significantly higher in the PCI than the CABG group (39.2% versus 23.0%, respectively; hazard ratio, 0.53; 95% confidence interval, 0.45 to 0.61; P<0.001). No heterogeneity of treatment effect was found in the subgroups, including diabetic patients and those presenting with 3-vessel disease. Conclusions-In this pooled analysis of 4 randomized trials, PCI with stenting was associated with a long-term safety profile similar to that of CABG. However, as a result of persistently lower repeat revascularization rates in the CABG patients, overall major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular event rates were significantly lower in the CABG group at 5 years.

Nutrition-related habits and associated factors of Brazilian adolescents

To investigate the nutrition-related habits (NRH) of Brazilian adolescents and evaluate the associations with risk factors. Cross-sectional school-based was carried out among high school adolescents aged 14-18 years (n = 1,759) from public and private schools from two cities. The NRH were investigated by the weekly consumption of vegetables, fruit, sweet food and fried food. Risk factors investigated were: city, sex, age, socioeconomic status and nutritional status. In statistics, Poisson regression was used with robust variance adjustment. Data indicated low consumption of fruits and vegetables, 70.0 and 71.0%, respectively, and high consumption of sweets and fried food, 66.7 and 63%, respectively. Boys showed risk of inadequate intake of vegetables [prevalence ratios (PR) 1.10, 95% CI 1.01-1.16] and fruit (PR 1.09, 95% CI 1.01-1.16). Furthermore, adolescents who live in Maringa had greater likelihood of consuming vegetables and fruit (20 and 25%, respectively). However, they presented risk of inadequate consumption of sweets (PR 1.19, 95% CI 1.11-1.28) for adolescents who live in Presidente Prudente. We concluded that inadequate NRH show high prevalence among adolescents and indicate the need to employ educational strategies that promote the adoption of more healthy habits and behaviors.

Biomechanical failure properties and microstructural content of ruptured and unruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms

Purpose: To test the hypothesis that ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) are globally weaker than unruptured ones. Methods: Four ruptured and seven unruptured AAA specimens were harvested whole from fresh cadavers during autopsies performed over an 18-month period. Multiple regionally distributed longitudinally oriented rectangular strips were cut from each AAA specimen for a total of 77 specimen strips. Strips were subjected to uniaxial extension until failure. Sections from approximately the strongest and weakest specimen strips were studied histologically and histochemically. From the load-extension data, failure tension, failure stress and failure strain were calculated. Rupture site characteristics such as location, arc length of rupture and orientation of rupture were also documented. Results: The failure tension, a measure of the tissue mechanical caliber was remarkably similar between ruptured and unruptured AAA (group mean +/- standard deviation of within-subject means: 11.2 +/- 2.3 versus 11.6 +/- 3.6 N/cin; p=0.866 by mixed model ANOVA). In post-hoc analysis, there was little difference between the groups in other measures of tissue mechanical caliber as well such as failure stress (95 +/- 28 versus 98 +/- 23 N/cm(2); p=0.870), failure strain (0.39 +/- 0.09 versus 0.36 +/- 0.09; p=0.705), wall thickness (1.7 +/- 0.4 versus 1.5 +/- 0.4 mm; p=0.470), and % coverage of collagen within tissue cross section (49.6 +/- 12.9% versus 60.8 +/- 9.6%; p=0.133). In the four ruptured AAA, primary rupture sites were on the lateral quadrants (two on left; one on left-posterior; one on right). Remarkably, all rupture lines had a longitudinal orientation and ranged from 1 to 6 cm in length. Conclusion: The findings are not consistent with the hypothesis that ruptured aortic aneurysms are globally weaker than unruptured ones. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Smart Alerts: Development of Software to Optimize Data Monitoring

Dherte PM, Negrao MPG, Mori Neto S, Holzhacker R, Shimada V, Taberner P, Carmona MJC - Smart Alerts: Development of a Software to Optimize Data Monitoring. Background and objectives: Monitoring is useful for vital follow-ups and prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of several events in anesthesia. Although alarms can be useful in monitoring they can cause dangerous user`s desensitization. The objective of this study was to describe the development of specific software to integrate intraoperative monitoring parameters generating ""smart alerts"" that can help decision making, besides indicating possible diagnosis and treatment. Methods: A system that allowed flexibility in the definition of alerts, combining individual alarms of the parameters monitored to generate a more elaborated alert system was designed. After investigating a set of smart alerts, considered relevant in the surgical environment, a prototype was designed and evaluated, and additional suggestions were implemented in the final product. To verify the occurrence of smart alerts, the system underwent testing with data previously obtained during intraoperative monitoring of 64 patients. The system allows continuous analysis of monitored parameters, verifying the occurrence of smart alerts defined in the user interface. Results: With this system a potential 92% reduction in alarms was observed. We observed that in most situations that did not generate alerts individual alarms did not represent risk to the patient. Conclusions: Implementation of software can allow integration of the data monitored and generate information, such as possible diagnosis or interventions. An expressive potential reduction in the amount of alarms during surgery was observed. Information displayed by the system can be oftentimes more useful than analysis of isolated parameters.

Evaluation of serum trace element, biochemical and hematological data of a healthy elderly group residing in So Paulo city, Brazil

In this study, blood serum trace elements, biochemical and hematological parameters were obtained to assess the health status of an elderly population residing in So Paulo city, SP, Brazil. Results obtained showed that more than 93% of the studied individuals presented most of the serum trace element concentrations and of the hematological and biochemical data within the reference values used in clinical laboratories. However, the percentage of elderly presenting recommended low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol concentrations was low (70%). The study indicated positive correlation between the concentrations of Zn and LDL-cholesterol (p < 0.06).

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Brazil: mortality and hospitalization trends and rates, 1996-2008

SETTING: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the third leading cause of death among adults in Brazil. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the mortality and hospitalisation trends in Brazil caused by COPD during the period 1996-2008. DESIGN: We used the health official statistics system to obtain data about mortality (1996-2008) and morbidity (1998-2008) due to COPD and all respiratory diseases (tuberculosis: codes A15-16; lung cancer: code C34, and all diseases coded from J40 to 47 in the 10th Revision of the International Classification of Diseases) as the underlying cause, in persons aged 45-74 years. We used the Joinpoint Regression Program log-linear model using Poisson regression that creates a Monte Carlo permutation test to identify points where trend lines change significantly in magnitude/direction to verify peaks and trends. RESULTS: The annual per cent change in age-adjusted death rates due to COPD declined by 2.7% in men (95%CI -3.6 to -1.8) and -2.0% (95%CI -2.9 to -1.0) in women; and due to all respiratory causes it declined by -1.7% (95%CI 2.4 to -1.0) in men and -1.1% (95%CI -1.8 to -0.3) in women. Although hospitalisation rates for COPD are declining, the hospital admission fatality rate increased in both sexes. CONCLUSION: COPD is still a leading cause of mortality in Brazil despite the observed decline in the mortality/hospitalisation rates for both sexes.