211 resultados para best-response dynamics
Resumo:
Benthic marine invertebrates may form metapopulations connected via propagule dispersal. Conservation efforts often target potential source coastlines to indirectly benefit areas depending on allochthonous offspring production. Besides population density, adult size structure, sex ratio, brooding frequency and the proportion of breeding individuals may significantly influence the reproductive output of benthic populations, but these effects have seldom been tested. We used rocky shore crabs to assess the spatial variability of such parameters at relevant scales for conservation purposes and to test their consistency over 2 consecutive years; we then used the data to address whether bottom-up processes or biological interactions might explain the patterns observed. We decomposed egg production rates into their components for the 2 most abundant brachyuran species inhabiting the intertidal rocky habitat. Adult density and brooding frequency varied consistently among shores for both species and largely explained the overall spatial trends of egg production. Temporally consistent patterns also included among-shore differences in the size of ovigerous females of the grapsid Pachygrapsus transversus and between-bay differences in the fecundity of the spider crab Epialtus brasiliensis. Sex ratio was remarkably constant in both. We found no positive or negative correlations between adult density and brooding frequency to support either the existence of a component Allee effect (lack of mate encounters) or an effect of intra-specific competition. Likewise, shore-specific potential growth in P. transversus does not negatively correlate with frequency of ovigerous individuals, as would be expected under a critical balance between these 2 processes. The patterns observed suggest that bottom-up drivers may best explain spatial trends in the reproductive output of these species.
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We considered whether ecological restoration using high diversity of native tree species serves to restore nitrogen dynamics in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We measured delta(15)N and N content in green foliage and soil; vegetation N:P ratio; and soil N mineralization in a preserved natural forest and restored forests of ages 21 and 52 years. Green foliage delta(15)N values, N content, N:P ratio, inorganic N and net mineralization and nitrification rates were all higher, the older the forest. Our findings indicate that the recuperation of N cycling has not been achieved yet in the restored forests even after 52 years, but show that they are following a trajectory of development that is characterized by their N cycling intensity becoming similar to a natural mature forest of the same original forest formation. This study demonstrated that some young restored forests are more limited by N compared to mature natural forests. We document that the recuperation of N cycling in tropical forests can be achieved through ecological restoration actions. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Large-scale soy agriculture in the southern Brazilian Amazon now rivals deforestation for pasture as the region`s predominant form of land use change. Such landscape-level change can have substantial consequences for local and regional hydrology, but these effects remain relatively unstudied in this ecologically and economically important region. We examined how the conversion to soy agriculture influences water balances and stormflows using stream discharge (water yields) and the timing of discharge (stream hydrographs) in small (2.5-13.5 km2) forested and soy headwater watersheds in the Upper Xingu Watershed in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. We monitored water yield for 1 year in three forested and four soy watersheds. Mean daily water yields were approximately four times higher in soy than forested watersheds, and soy watersheds showed greater seasonal variability in discharge. The contribution of stormflows to annual streamflow in all streams was low (< 13% of annual streamflow), and the contribution of stormflow to streamflow did not differ between land uses. If the increases in water yield observed in this study are typical, landscape-scale conversion to soy substantially alters water-balance, potentially altering the regional hydrology over large areas of the southern Amazon.
Resumo:
Tropical ecosystems play a large and complex role in the global carbon cycle. Clearing of natural ecosystems for agriculture leads to large pulses of CO(2) to the atmosphere from terrestrial biomass. Concurrently, the remaining intact ecosystems, especially tropical forests, may be sequestering a large amount of carbon from the atmosphere in response to global environmental changes including climate changes and an increase in atmospheric CO(2). Here we use an approach that integrates census-based historical land use reconstructions, remote-sensing-based contemporary land use change analyses, and simulation modeling of terrestrial biogeochemistry to estimate the net carbon balance over the period 1901-2006 for the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, which is one of the most rapidly changing agricultural frontiers in the world. By the end of this period, we estimate that of the state`s 925 225 km(2), 221 092 km(2) have been converted to pastures and 89 533 km(2) have been converted to croplands, with forest-to-pasture conversions being the dominant land use trajectory but with recent transitions to croplands increasing rapidly in the last decade. These conversions have led to a cumulative release of 4.8 Pg C to the atmosphere, with similar to 80% from forest clearing and 20% from the clearing of cerrado. Over the same period, we estimate that the residual undisturbed ecosystems accumulated 0.3 Pg C in response to CO2 fertilization. Therefore, the net emissions of carbon from Mato Grosso over this period were 4.5 Pg C. Net carbon emissions from Mato Grosso since 2000 averaged 146 Tg C/yr, on the order of Brazil`s fossil fuel emissions during this period. These emissions were associated with the expansion of croplands to grow soybeans. While alternative management regimes in croplands, including tillage, fertilization, and cropping patterns promote carbon storage in ecosystems, they remain a small portion of the net carbon balance for the region. This detailed accounting of a region`s carbon balance is the type of foundation analysis needed by the new United Nations Collaborative Programmme for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).
Resumo:
The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006-2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane (CH(4)), and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO(2)-equivalents (CO(2)-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24-49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2-0.4 Pg CO(2)-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use management play important roles in the net greenhouse gas emissions of this frontier, suggesting that both should be considered in emissions policies. We find that avoided deforestation remains the best strategy for minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions from Mato Grosso.
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The biogeochemical processes affecting the transport and cycling of terrestrial organic carbon in coastal and transition areas are still not fully understood One means of distinguishing between the sources of organic materials contributing to particulate organic matter (POM) in Babitonga Bay waters and sediments is by the direct measurement of delta(13)C of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and delta(13)C and delta(15)N in the organic constituents. An isotopic survey was taken from samples collected in the Bay in late spring of 2004. The results indicate that the delta(13)C and delta(15)N compositions of OM varied from -21.7 parts per thousand to -26 2 parts per thousand. and from + 9 2 parts per thousand. to -0 1 parts per thousand, respectively. delta(13)C from DIC ranges from +0.04 parts per thousand to -12.7 parts per thousand The difference in the isotope compositions enables the determination of three distinct end-members terrestrial, marine and urban Moreover, the evaluation of source contribution to the particulate organic matter (POM) in the Bay, enables assessment of the anthropogenic impact. Comparing the depleted values of delta(13)C(DIC) and delta(13)C(POC) it is possible to further understand the carbon dynamic within Babitonga Bay (C) 2010 Elsevier BV All rights reserved
Resumo:
Currently there is a trend for the expansion of the area cropped with sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.), driven by an increase in the world demand for biofuels, due to economical, environmental, and geopolitical issues. Although sugarcane is traditionally harvested by burning dried leaves and tops, the unburned, mechanized harvest has been progressively adopted. The use of process based models is useful in understanding the effects of plant litter in soil C dynamics. The objective of this work was to use the CENTURY model in evaluating the effect of sugarcane residue management in the temporal dynamics of soil C. The approach taken in this work was to parameterize the CENTURY model for the sugarcane crop, to simulate the temporal dynamics of soil C, validating the model through field experiment data, and finally to make predictions in the long term regarding soil C. The main focus of this work was the comparison of soil C stocks between the burned and unburned litter management systems, but the effect of mineral fertilizer and organic residue applications were also evaluated. The simulations were performed with data from experiments with different durations, from 1 to 60 yr, in Goiana and Timbauba, Pernambuco, and Pradopolis, Sao Paulo, all in Brazil; and Mount Edgecombe, Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa. It was possible to simulate the temporal dynamics of soil C (R(2) = 0.89). The predictions made with the model revealed that there is, in the long term, a trend for higher soil C stocks with the unburned management. This increase is conditioned by factors such as climate, soil texture, time of adoption of the unburned system, and N fertilizer management.
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Amazon forests are potentially globally significant sources or sinks for atmospheric carbon dioxide. In this study, we characterize the spatial trends in carbon storage and fluxes in both live and dead biomass (necromass) in two Amazonian forests, the Biological Dynamic of Forest Fragments Project (BDFFP), near Manaus, Amazonas, and the Tapajos National Forest (TNF) near Santarem, Para. We assessed coarse woody debris (CWD) stocks, tree growth, mortality, and recruitment in ground-based plots distributed across the terra firme forest at both sites. Carbon dynamics were similar within each site, but differed significantly between the sites. The BDFFP and the TNF held comparable live biomass (167 +/- 7.6 MgC.ha(-1) versus 149 +/- 6.0 MgC.ha(-1), respectively), but stocks of CWD were 2.5 times larger at TNF (16.2 +/- 1.5 MgC.ha(-1) at BDFFP, versus 40.1 +/- 3.9 MgC.ha(-1) at TNF). A model of current forest dynamics suggests that the BDFFP was close to carbon balance, and its size class structure approximated a steady state. The TNF, by contrast, showed rapid carbon accrual to live biomass (3.24 +/- 0.22 MgC.ha(-1).a(-1) in TNF, 2.59 +/- 0.16 MgC.ha(-1).a(-1) in BDFFP), which was more than offset by losses from large stocks of CWD, as well as ongoing shifts of biomass among size classes. This pattern in the TNF suggests recovery from a significant disturbance. The net loss of carbon from the TNF will likely last 10 - 15 years after the initial disturbance (controlled by the rate of decay of coarse woody debris), followed by uptake of carbon as the forest size class structure and composition continue to shift. The frequency and longevity of forests showing such disequilibruim dynamics within the larger matrix of the Amazon remains an essential question to understanding Amazonian carbon balance.
Resumo:
As insects increase in radiotolerance as they develop and usually several developmental stages of the pest may be present in the fresh shipped commodity, it is important to know the radiation susceptibility of the stages of the target insect before the establishment of ionizing radiation quarantine treatments. This study was performed to determine the radiotolerance of eggs of the oriental fruit moth, Grapholita molesta (Busck) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), to gamma radiation. This species is considered as one of the most serious worldwide pests for temperate fruits, especially peaches. Eggs (12 h old) were exposed to 0 (control), 25, 35, 50, 75, 100, 125 and 150 Gy of gamma radiation. Surviving larvae were allowed to feed on an artificial diet. Three days after irradiation, it was verified that larvae`s cephalic capsules were significantly affected by gamma radiation, and the estimated mean LD(90) and LD(99) were 66.3 Gy and 125.8 Gy, respectively. Oriental fruit moth eggs revealed to be quite radiosensitive and very low doses as 50 Gy were sufficient to disrupt G. molesta embryogenesis. At 25 Gy, only male adults originated from the surviving larvae and, after mating with untreated fertile females, shown to be sterile. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
In vitro organogenesis of Citrus volkameriana and C. aurantium was studied considering three explant types: epicotyl segment, internodal segment, and hypocotyl segment with attached cotyledon fragment. The explants were cultured in medium according to Grosser and Gmitter (EME) supplemented with 0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, and 2.0 mg dm(- 3) 6-benzyl-aminopurine (BAP), incubated firstly in darkness for 4 weeks, and then transferred to 16-h photoperiod for 2 weeks. Comparing epicotyl and internodal segments, a higher percentage of responsive explants and a higher number of shoots per explant were obtained with epicotyl segments, regardless of the BAP concentration. For C. volkameriana the highest percentage of responsive epicotyl segments (42 %) was obtained in EME with 1.0 mg dm(-3) BAP, while for C. aurantium (59 %) in EME with 0.5 mg dm(-3) BAP. The organogenesis efficiency was the best with the use of the hypocotyl segment with attached cotyledon fragment (77 % for C. volkameriana and to 75 % for C. aurantium). With this explant the morphogenesis occurred only in the hypocotyl region. The in vitro organogenesis was characterized by histological analyses showing that the morphogenic process started in the cambium region near the explant cut end.
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The inorganic chemical characterization of suspended sediments is of utmost relevance for the knowledge of the dynamics and movement of chemical elements in the aquatic and wet ecosystems. Despite the complexity of the effective design for studying this ecological compartment, this work has tested a procedure for analyzing suspended sediments by instrumental neutron activation analysis, k(0) method (k(0)-INAA). The chemical elements As, Ba, Br, Ca, Ce, Co, Cr, Cs, Eu, Fe, Hf, Fig, K, La, Mo, Na, Ni, Rb, Sb, Sc, Se, Sm, Sr, Ta, Tb, Th, Yb and Zn were quantified in the suspended sediment compartment by means of k(0)-INAA. When compared with World Average for rivers, high mass fractions of Fe (222,900 mg/kg), Ba (4990 mg/kg), Zn (1350 mg/kg), Cr (646 mg/kg), Co (74.5 mg/kg), Br (113 mg/kg) and Mo (31.9 mg/kg) were quantified in suspended sediments from the Piracicaba River, the Piracicamirim Stream and the Marins Stream. Results of the principal component analysis for standardized chemical element mass fractions indicated an intricate correlation among chemical elements evaluated, as a response of the contribution of natural and anthropogenic sources of chemical elements for ecosystems. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
We study the dynamics of the adoption of new products by agents with continuous opinions and discrete actions (CODA). The model is such that the refusal in adopting a new idea or product is increasingly weighted by neighbor agents as evidence against the product. Under these rules, we study the distribution of adoption times and the final proportion of adopters in the population. We compare the cases where initial adopters are clustered to the case where they are randomly scattered around the social network and investigate small world effects on the final proportion of adopters. The model predicts a fat tailed distribution for late adopters which is verified by empirical data. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Here, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling how social agents change their minds in the case of continuous opinion models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable, we will see that interesting dynamics emerge when an agent assigns a likelihood to that value that is a mixture of a Gaussian and a uniform distribution. This represents the idea that the other agent might have no idea about what is being talked about. The effect of updating only the first moments of the distribution will be studied, and we will see that this generates results similar to those of the bounded confidence models. On also updating the second moment, several different opinions always survive in the long run, as agents become more stubborn with time. However, depending on the probability of error and initial uncertainty, those opinions might be clustered around a central value.
Resumo:
A model where agents show discrete behavior regarding their actions, but have continuous opinions that are updated by interacting with other agents is presented. This new updating rule is applied to both the voter and Sznajd models for interaction between neighbors, and its consequences are discussed. The appearance of extremists is naturally observed and it seems to be a characteristic of this model.
Resumo:
There are controversies about the use of local anesthetics during balloon compression for trigeminal neuralgia (TN) as a protective factor for cardiovascular events. The objective of this study was to investigate cardiovascular parameters (blood pressure and heart rate [HR]) of patients that underwent trigeminal balloon compression with local anesthetics compared to a control group (placebo). This is a randomized controlled study; 55 patients were randomized into two groups: study (deep sedation and trigeminal block with 0.8-mL lidocaine 2%) and control group (deep sedation and trigeminal injection of 0.8-mL saline). Blood pressure and HR were measured in five distinct moments: preoperative, during puncture for local anesthesia/placebo, during puncture with the catheter, during balloon compression, and final evaluation. Statistical analysis was performed with Pearson`s chi (2) and McNemar tests and the analysis of variance for repetitive measures. The means of systolic and diastolic blood pressures (SBP and DBP, respectively) were higher in the control group when compared to the study group at the evaluation during puncture with the catheter (p < 0.001) and balloon compression (p < 0.001 and p = 0.018 for DBP and SBP, respectively). There was an increase in the HR in the control group during the procedure (p = 0.017). The use of local anesthetics during the trigeminal balloon compression for TN can have a preventive role for the risk of cardiovascular events.