Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

ECONOMICAL OCCUPATION OF AGRICULTURAL AREA OF PIRACICABA (SAO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL), INCLUDING RISK THROUGH LINEAR PROGRAMMING

The economic occupation of an area of 500 ha for Piracicaba was studied with the irrigated cultures of maize, tomato, sugarcane and beans, having used models of deterministic linear programming and linear programming including risk for the Target-Motad model, where two situations had been analyzed. In the deterministic model the area was the restrictive factor and the water was not restrictive for none of the tested situations. For the first situation the gotten maximum income was of R$ 1,883,372.87 and for the second situation it was of R$ 1,821,772.40. In the model including risk a producer that accepts risk can in the first situation get the maximum income of R$ 1,883,372. 87 with a minimum risk of R$ 350 year(-1), and in the second situation R$ 1,821,772.40 with a minimum risk of R$ 40 year(-1). Already a producer averse to the risk can get in the first situation a maximum income of R$ 1,775,974.81 with null risk and for the second situation R$ 1.707.706, 26 with null risk, both without water restriction. These results stand out the importance of the inclusion of the risk in supplying alternative occupations to the producer, allowing to a producer taking of decision considered the risk aversion and the pretension of income.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Biochemical responses of the ethylene-insensitive Never ripe tomato mutant subjected to cadmium and sodium stresses

In order to further address the known interaction between ethylene and components of the oxidative system, we have used the ethylene-insensitive Never ripe (Nr) tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L) mutant, which blocks ethylene responses. The mutant was compared to the control Micro-Tom (MT) cultivar subjected to two stressful situations: 100 mM NaCl and 0.5 mM CdCl(2). Leaf chlorophyll, lipid peroxidation and antioxidant enzyme activities in roots, leaves and fruits, and Na and Cd accumulation in tissues were determined. Although we verified a similar growth pattern and Na and Cd accumulation for MT and Nr, the mutant exhibited reduced leaf chlorophyll degradation following stress. In roots and leaves, the patterns of catalase (CAT), glutathione reductase (GR), ascorbate peroxidase (APX), guaiacol peroxidase (GPOX), superoxide dismutase (SOD) enzyme activity as well as malondialdehyde (MDA) and hydrogen peroxide (H(2)O(2)) production under the stressful conditions tested were very similar between MT and Nr mutant. However, Nr fruits showed increased H(2)O(2) production, reduced and enhanced APX activity in NaCl and CdCl(2), respectively, and enhanced GPOX in NaCl. Moreover, through non-denaturing PAGE, a similar reduction of SOD I band intensity in both, control MT and Nr mutant, treated with NaCl was observed. In leaves and fruits, a similar SOD activity pattern was observed for all periods, genotypes and treatments. Overall the results indicate that the ethylene signaling associated with NR receptor can modulate the biochemical pathways of oxidative stress in a tissue dependent manner, and that this signaling may be different following Na and Cd exposure. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390. This work aims to characterize the water use of maize hybrid DKB 390 under suitable conditions of irrigation for both sufficient and below-optimal situations of nitrogen supply. Crop coefficient values for different stages are also presented as a result, in order to provide the basis for crop water budget and management throughout the cycle. A field experiment was carried Out during the main season, in which biomass, soil moisture, leaf area, climate data and light transmittance were evaluated. These have allowed deriving water balance, use and efficiency. The mentioned genotype requires around 600 nun for high yield targets, being less efficient when led under below-optimal nitrogen fertilization.

Characterization of the electrocardiographic pattern of individuals with cerebral palsy

Background: Dentists of Lar Sao Francisco observed during dental treatment that children with cerebral palsy (CP) had increased heart rate (HR) and lower production of saliva. Despite the high prevalence of CP found in the literature (2.08-3.6/1000 individuals), little is known about the electrocardiographic (ECG) characteristics, especially HR, of individuals with CP. Objective: This study aimed to investigate the hypothesis that individuals with CP have a higher HR and to define other ECG characteristics of this population. Methods: Ninety children with CP underwent clinical examination and 12-lead rest ECG. Electrocardiographic data on rhythm, HR, PR interval, QRS duration, P/QRS/T axis, and QT, QTc and T(peak-end) intervals (minimum, mean, maximum, and dispersion) were measured and analyzed then compared with data from a control group with 35 normal children. Fisher and Mann-Whitney U tests were used, respectively, to compare categorical and continuous data. Results: Groups cerebral palsy and control did not significantly differ in age (9 +/- 3 x 9 +/- 4 years) and male gender (65% x 49%). Children with CP had a higher HR (104.0 +/- 20.6 x 84.2 +/- 13.3 beats per minute; P < .0001), shorter PR interval (128.8 +/- 15.0 x 138.1 +/- 15.1 milliseconds; P = .0018), shorter QRS duration (77.4 +/- 8.6 x 82.0 +/- 8.7 milliseconds; P = .0180), QRS axis (46.0 degrees +/- 26.3 degrees x 59.7 degrees +/- 24.8 degrees; P = .0024) and T-wave axis (34.3 degrees +/- 28.9 degrees x 42.9 degrees +/- 17.1 degrees; P = .034) more horizontally positioned, and greater mean QTc (418.1 +/- 18.4 x 408.5 +/- 19.4 milliseconds; P = .0110). All the electrocardiogram variables were within the reference range for the age group including those with significant differences. Conclusion: Children with CP showed increased HR and other abnormal ECG findings in the setting of this investigation. Further studies are needed to explain our findings and to correlate the increased HR with situations such as dehydration, stress, and autonomic nervous disorders. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A correct enthalpy relationship as thermal comfort index for livestock

Researchers working with thermal comfort have been using enthalpy to measure thermal energy inside rural facilities, establishing indicator values for many situations of thermal comfort and heat stress. This variable turned out to be helpful in analyzing thermal exchange in livestock systems. The animals are exposed to an environment which is decisive for the thermoregulatory process, and, consequently, the reactions reflect states of thermal comfort or heat stress, the last being responsable for problems of sanity, behavior and productivity. There are researchers using enthalpy as a qualitative indicator of thermal environment of livestock such as poultry, cattle and hogs in tropical regions. This preliminary work intends to check different enthalpy equations using information from classical thermodynamics, and proposes a direct equation as thermal comfort index for livestock systems.

An alternative method for purifying and detoxifying diphtheria toxin

Infections caused by Corynebacterium diphtheriae frequently induce situations in which very small doses of antigens injected intradermally can cause strong inflammatory reactions. This bacterium secretes the diphtheria toxin (DT), a virulence factor that can be lethal to the human organism at doses below 0.1 mu g/kg of body weight. The present work proposes alternative methods of DT purification using affinity chromatography and of DT detoxification through conjugating with the polymer methoxypolyethylene glycol activated (mPEG). Tests were performed to evaluate: the formation of edemas and the presence of dermonecrotic activity, in vitro cytotoxicity to Vero cells, the neutralizing activity of serum from guinea pigs immunized with the diphtheria toxoid inactivated with mPEG, and the immunogenic activity of the purified and modified toxin. The results indicated that purification with Blue Sepharose was an efficient method, yielding antigen purity equivalent to 2600 Lf/mg of protein nitrogen. The modification of the Purified Toxin with mPEG did not result in the formation of edema or necrosis although it was immunogenic and stimulated the formation of antibodies that could neutralize the Purified Toxin. The toxoid obtained from the purified toxin maintained its immunogenic characteristics, inducing antibodies with neutralizing activity; edema and necrosis were still observed, however. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

In vitro Fluoride Release and Tensile Bond Strength of a Polymeric Intra-Buccal Bioadhesive

The intra-buccal polymeric bioadhesive systems that can stay adhered to the oral soft tissues for drug programmed release, with the preventive and/or therapeutic purpose has been employed for large clinical situations. A system based on hydroxypropyl methyl cellulose/Carbopol 934`/magnesium stearate (HPMC/Cp/StMg) was developed having the sodium fluoride as active principle. This kind of system was evaluated according to its resistance to the removal by means of physical test of tensile strength. Swine buccal mucosa extracted immediately after animals` sacrifice was employed as substrate for the physical trials, to obtain 16 test bodies. Artificial saliva with or without mucin was used to involve the substrate/bioadhesive system sets during the trials. Artificial salivas viscosity was determined by means of Brookfield viscometer, showing the artificial saliva with mucin 10.0 cP, and the artificial saliva without mucin 7.5 cP. The tensile strength assays showed the following averages: for the group ""artificial saliva with mucin"" - 12.89 Pa, and for the group ""without mucin"" - 12.35 Pa. Statistical analysis showed no significant difference between the assays for both artificial salivas, and it was possible to conclude that the variable mucin did not interfered with the bioadhesion process for the polymeric devices. The device was able to release fluoride in a safe, efficient and constant way up to 8 hours.

Early Effects on T lymphocyte Response to Iron Deficiency in Mice. Short Communication

Iron deficiency is a common nutritional disorder, affecting about 30% of the world population. Deficits in iron functional compartments have suppressive effects on the immune system. Environmental problems, age, and other nutrient deficiencies are some of the situations which make human studies difficult and warrant the use of animal models. This study aimed to investigate alterations in the immune system by inducing iron deficiency and promoting recuperation in a mouse model. Hemoglobin concentration, hematocrit, liver iron store, and flow cytometry analyses of cell-surface transferrin receptor (CD71) on peripheral blood and spleen CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocyte were performed in the control (C) and the iron-deficient (ID) groups of animals at the beginning and end of the experiment. Hematological indices of C and ID mice were not different but the iron stores of ID mice were significantly reduced. Although T cell subsets were not altered, the percentage of T cells expressing CD71 was significantly increased by ID. The results suggest that iron deficiency induced by our experimental model would mimic the early events in the onset of anemia, where thymus atrophy is not enough to influence subset composition of T cells, which can still respond to iron deficiency by upregulating the expression of transferrin receptor.

The game to play: expanding the co-opetition proposal through the strategic games matrix

Purpose - Using Brandenburger and Nalebuff`s 1995 co-opetition model as a reference, the purpose of this paper is to seek to develop a tool that, based on the tenets of classical game theory, would enable scholars and managers to identify which games may be played in response to the different conflict of interest situations faced by companies in their business environments. Design/methodology/approach - The literature on game theory and business strategy are reviewed and a conceptual model, the strategic games matrix (SGM), is developed. Two novel games are described and modeled. Findings - The co-opetition model is not sufficient to realistically represent most of the conflict of interest situations faced by companies. It seeks to address this problem through development of the SGM, which expands upon Brandenburger and Nalebuff`s model by providing a broader perspective, through incorporation of an additional dimension (power ratio between players) and three novel, respectively, (rival, individualistic, and associative). Practical implications - This proposed model, based on the concepts of game theory, should be used to train decision- and policy-makers to better understand, interpret and formulate conflict management strategies. Originality/value - A practical and original tool to use game models in conflict of interest situations is generated. Basic classical games, such as Nash, Stackelberg, Pareto, and Minimax, are mapped on the SGM to suggest in which situations they Could be useful. Two innovative games are described to fit four different types of conflict situations that so far have no corresponding game in the literature. A test application of the SGM to a classic Intel Corporation strategic management case, in the complex personal computer industry, shows that the proposed method is able to describe, to interpret, to analyze, and to prescribe optimal competitive and/or cooperative strategies for each conflict of interest situation.

Calcium Carbonate Particle Growth Depending on Coupling among Adjacent Layers in Hybrid LB/LbL Films

There are practical and academic situations that justify the study of calcium carbonate crystallization and especially of systems that are associated with organic matrices and a confined medium. Despite the fact that many different matrices have been studied, the use of well-behaved, thin organic films may provide new knowledge about this system. In this work, we have studied the growth of calcium carbonate particles on well-defined organic matrices that were formed by layer-by-layer (LbL) polyelectrolyte films deposited on phospholipid Langmuir-Blodgett films (LB). We were able to change the surface electrical charge density of the LB films by changing the proportions of a negatively charged lipid, the sodium salt of dimyristoyl-sn-glycero-phosphatidyl acid (DMPA), and a zwitterionic lipid. dimyristoyl-sn-glycero-phosphatidylethanolamine (DMPE). This affects the subsequent polyelectrolyte LbL film deposition, which also changes the the nature of the bonding (electrostatic interaction or hydrogen bonding). This approach allowed for the formation of calcium carbonate particles of different final shapes, roughnesses, and sizes. The masses of deposited lipids, polyelectrolytes, and calcium cabonate were quantified by the quartz crystal microbalance technique. The structures of obtained particles were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy.

THE ANTERIOR CINGULATE CORTEX IS A TARGET STRUCTURE FOR THE ANXIOLYTIC-LIKE EFFECTS OF BENZODIAZEPINES ASSESSED BY REPEATED EXPOSURE TO THE ELEVATED PLUS MAZE AND FOS IMMUNOREACTIVITY

Prior experience with the elevated plus maze (EPM) increases the avoidance of rodents to the open arms and impairs the anxiolytic-like effects of benzodiazepines on the traditional behaviors evaluated upon re-exposure to the maze, a phenomenon known as one-trial tolerance. Risk assessment behaviors are also sensitive to benzodiazepines. During re-exposure to the maze, these behaviors reinstate the information-processing initiated during the first experience, and the detection of danger generates stronger open-arm avoidance. The present study investigated whether the benzodiazepine midazolam alters risk assessment behaviors and Fos protein distribution associated with test and retest sessions in the EPM. Naive or maze-experienced Wistar rats received either saline or midazolam (0.5 mg/kg i.p.) and were subjected to the EPM. Midazolam caused the usual effects on exploratory behavior, increasing exploratory activity of naive rats in the open arms and producing no effects on these conventional measures in rats re-exposed to the maze. Risk assessment behaviors, however, were sensitive to the benzodiazepine during both sessions, indicating anxiolytic-like effects of the drug in both conditions. Fos immunohistochemistry showed that midazolam injections were associated with a distinct pattern of action when administered before the test or retest session, and the anterior cingulate cortex, area 1 (Cg1), was the only structure targeted by the benzodiazepine in both situations. Bilateral infusions of midazolam into the Cg1 replicated the behavioral effects of the drug injected systemically, suggesting that this area is critically involved in the anxiolytic-like effects of benzodiazepines, although the behavioral strategy adopted by the animals appears to depend on the previous knowledge of the threatening environment. (C) 2009 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Novel Treatment Immediately after Myelomeningocele Repair Applying Low-Level Laser Therapy in Newborns: A Pilot Study

Background/Aims: The use of low-level laser therapy (LLLT) in neurosurgery is still hardly disseminated and there are situations in which the effects of this therapeutic tool would be extremely relevant in this medical field. The aim of the present study is to analyze the effect of LLLT on tissue repair after the corrective surgical incision in neonates with myelomeningocele, in an attempt to diminish the incidence of postoperative dehiscences following surgical repair performed immediately after birth. Materials and Methods: Prospective pilot study with 13 patients submitted to surgery at birth who received adjuvant treatment with LLLT (group A). A diode laser CW, lambda = 685 nm, p = 21 mW, was applied punctually along the surgical incision, with 0.19 J delivered per point, accounting for a total of 4-10 J delivered energy per patient, according to the surgical wound area and then compared with the results obtained in 23 patients who underwent surgery without laser therapy (group B). Results: This pilot study disclosed a significant decline in dehiscences of the surgical wounds in neonates who were submitted to LLLT (7.69 vs. 17.39%). Conclusion: This new adjuvant therapeutic modality with LLLT aided the healing of surgical wounds, preventing morbidities, as well as shortening the period of hospital stay, which implies a reduction of costs for patients and for the institution. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel

Age and Method-dependent Variability of Predicted Oxygen Consumption in Congenital Heart Disease

Background and Purpose. There has been a lot of debate about the use of predicted oxygen consumption to calculate pulmonary vascular resistance using the Fick principle. We therefore comparatively analyzed predicted oxygen consumption in infants and children in specific age groups, using different methods (formulas), as an attempt to better understand the usefulness and limitations of predictions. Methods and Results. Four models (LaFarge & Miettinen, Bergstra et al., Lindahl, and Lundell et al.) were used to predict oxygen consumption in 200 acyanotic patients with congenital cardiac defects aged 0-2.0, > 2.0-4.0, > 4.0-6.0, and > 6.0-8.75 years (median 2.04 years). Significant differences were observed between the age groups (P < .001) and between the methods (P < .001), not related to diagnoses. Differences between methods were more impressive in the first age group (P < .01). In patients aged 0-2.0 years, the lowest values of oxygen consumption (corresponding to the highest estimates of pulmonary vascular resistance) were obtained with the method of Lindahl; above this age, any method except that of Lundell et al. Conclusions. Although measuring oxygen consumption is always preferable, a rational use of predictions, using different methods, may be of help in situations where measurements are definitely not possible.