Risk-based decision making method for maintenance policy selection of thermal power plant equipment

This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The electrochemical behaviour of Ti-13Nb-13Zr alloy in various solutions

The electrochemical behaviour of a near-beta Ti-13Nb-13Zr alloy for the application as implants was investigated in various solutions. The electrolytes used were 0.9 wt% NaCl solution, Hanks` solution and a culture medium known as minimum essential medium (MEM) composed of salts, vitamins and amino acids, all at 37 degrees C. The electrochemical behaviour was investigated by the following electrochemical techniques: open circuit potential measurements as a function of time, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and determination of polarisation curves. The obtained results showed that the Ti alloy was passive in all electrolytes. The EIS results were analysed using an equivalent electrical circuit representing a duplex structure oxide layer, composed of an inner barrier layer, mainly responsible for the alloy corrosion resistance, and an outer and porous layer that has been associated to osteointegration ability. The properties of both layers were dependent on the electrolyte used. The results suggested that the thickest porous layer is formed in the MEM solution whereas the impedance of the barrier layer formed in this solution was the lowest among the electrolytes used. The polarisation curves showed a current increase at potentials around 1300 mV versus saturated calomel electrode (SCE), and this increase was also dependent on the electrolyte used. The highest increase in current density was also associated to the MEM solution suggesting that this is the most aggressive electrolyte to the Ti alloy among the three tested solutions.

Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy investigation of the electrochemical behaviour of copper coated with artificial patina layers and submitted to wet and dry cycles

Due to rain events historical monuments exposed to the atmosphere are frequently submitted to wet and dry cycles. During drying periods wetness is maintained in some confined regions and the corrosion product layer, generally denominated patinas, builds up and gets thicker. The aim of this study is to use electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) to investigate the electrochemical behaviour of pure copper coated with two artificial patina layers and submitted either to continuous or to intermittent immersion tests, this latter aiming to simulate wet and dry cycles. The experiments were performed in 0.1 mol dm(-3) NaCl solution and in artificial rainwater containing the most significant pollutants of the city of Sao Paulo. The results of the continuous immersion tests in the NaCl solution have shown that the coated samples behave like a porous electrode with finite pore length. On the other hand, in the intermittent tests a porous electrode response with semi-infinite pore length can be developed. The results were interpreted based on the model of de Levie and a critical comparison with previous interpretations reported in the literature for similar systems is presented. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigation of the corrosion behaviour of AA 2024-T3 in low concentrated chloride media

Aluminium alloy (AA) 2024-T3 is an important engineering material due to its widespread use in the aerospace industry. However, it is very prone to localized corrosion attack in chloride containing media, which has been mainly associated to the presence of coarse intermetallics (IMs) in its microstructure. In this work the corrosion behaviour of AA 2024-T3 in low concentrated chloride media was investigated using microscopy and electrochemical methods. TEM/EDS observations on non-corroded samples evidenced the heterogeneous composition within the IMs. In addition, SEM observations showed that intermetallics with the same nominal composition present different reactivity, and that both types of coarse IMs normally found in the alloy microstructure are prone to corrosion. Moreover, EDS analyses showed important compositional changes in corroded IMs, evidencing a selective dissolution of their more active constituents, and the onset of an intense oxygen peak, irrespective to the IM nature, indicating the formation of corrosion products. On the other hand, the results of the electrochemical investigations, in accordance with the SEM/EDS observations, evidenced that IMs corrosion dominates the electrochemical response of the alloy during the first hours of immersion in the test electrolyte. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Social behaviour of collared peccaries (Pecari tajacu) under three space allowances

Captive breeding of peccaries is on the increase in neotropical countries. Few studies, however, have reported behavioural responses of wild animals under farmed conditions. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of space allowance on the occurrence of social behaviour patterns on farmed collared peccary (Pecan tajacu). We observed three herds of collared peccaries each containing eight acquainted individuals. Using a 3 x 3 Latin square design, herds were allocated, in a random order, to one of the three experimental enclosures, each with a different size. 375, 750 and 1,500 m(2) of total available area, each with three wooden shelters. We recorded all the occurrences of selected positive and agonistic behavioural patterns that occurred 90 min before and during feeding Enclosure size had a significant effect on agonistic patterns of peccaries during feeding, in that more agonistic behaviour was observed in smaller spaces We also found that shelter usage increased as space decreased Differing space allowances, however, did not have an effect on the occurrence of positive interactions that were more frequent before compared to during feeding. We concluded that enclosure size had an effect on the expression of agonistic be and the use of shelters by collared peccaries Thus, animal welfare can be improved by adopting at least 187 5 m(2) per peccary. In addition, our study also confirmed the importance of shelter areas in collared peccary husbandry.

Optimal irrigation depth for bean crops considering water constraints and farmer`s risk aversion level

Nowadays, the rising competition for the use of water and environmental resources with consequent restrictions for farmers should change the paradigm in terms of irrigation concepts, or rather, in order to attain economical efficiency other than to supply water requirement for the crop. Therefore, taking into account the social and economical role of bean activity in Brazil, as well as the risk inherent to crop due to its high sensibility to both deficit and excessive water, the optimization methods regarding to irrigation management have become more interesting and essential. This study intends to present a way to determine the optimal water supply, considering different combinations between desired bean yield and level of risk, bringing as a result a graph with the former associated with the latter, depending on different water depths.

ECONOMICAL OCCUPATION OF AGRICULTURAL AREA OF PIRACICABA (SAO PAULO STATE, BRAZIL), INCLUDING RISK THROUGH LINEAR PROGRAMMING

The economic occupation of an area of 500 ha for Piracicaba was studied with the irrigated cultures of maize, tomato, sugarcane and beans, having used models of deterministic linear programming and linear programming including risk for the Target-Motad model, where two situations had been analyzed. In the deterministic model the area was the restrictive factor and the water was not restrictive for none of the tested situations. For the first situation the gotten maximum income was of R$ 1,883,372.87 and for the second situation it was of R$ 1,821,772.40. In the model including risk a producer that accepts risk can in the first situation get the maximum income of R$ 1,883,372. 87 with a minimum risk of R$ 350 year(-1), and in the second situation R$ 1,821,772.40 with a minimum risk of R$ 40 year(-1). Already a producer averse to the risk can get in the first situation a maximum income of R$ 1,775,974.81 with null risk and for the second situation R$ 1.707.706, 26 with null risk, both without water restriction. These results stand out the importance of the inclusion of the risk in supplying alternative occupations to the producer, allowing to a producer taking of decision considered the risk aversion and the pretension of income.

Enterobacter sakazakii in Dried Infant Formulas and Milk Kitchens of Maternity Wards in Sao Paulo, Brazil

This study was the first conducted in Brazil to evaluate the presence of Enterobacter sakazakii in milk-based powdered infant formula manufactured for infants 0 to 6 months of age and to examine the conditions of formula preparation and service in three hospitals in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. Samples of dried and rehydrated infant formula, environments of milk kitchens, water, bottles and nipples, utensils, and hands of personnel were analyzed, and E. sakazakii and Enterobacteriaceae populations were determined. All samples of powdered infant formula purchased at retail contained E. sakazakii at <0.03 most probable number (MPN)/100 g. In hospital samples, E. sakazakii was found in one unopened formula can (0.3 MPN/100 g) and in the residue from one nursing bottle from hospital A. All other cans of formula from the same lot bought at a retail store contained E. sakazakii at <0.03 MPN/100 g. The pathogen also was found in one cleaning sponge from hospital B. Enterobacteriaceae populations ranged from 10(1) to 10(5) CFU/g in cleaning aids and <5 CFU/g in all formula types (dry or rehydrated), except for the sample that contained E. sakazakii, which also was contaminated with Enterobacteriaceae at 5 CFU/g. E. sakazakii isolates were not genetically related. In an experiment in which rehydrated formula was used as the growth medium, the temperature was that of the neonatal intensive care unit (25 C), and the incubation time was the average time that formula is left at room temperature while feeding the babies (up to 4 h), a 2-log increase in levels of E. sakazakii was found in the formula. Visual inspection of the facilities revealed that the hygienic conditions in the milk kitchens needed improvement. The length of time that formula is left at room temperature in the different hospitals while the babies in the neonatal intensive care unit are being fed (up to 4 h) may allow for the multiplication of E. sakazakii and thus may lead to an increased health risk for infants.

Evaluation of the role of environmental factors in the human gastrointestinal tract on the behaviour of probiotic cultures of Lactobacillus casei Shirota and Lactobacillus casei LC01 by the use of a semi-dynamic in vitro model

This study evaluated the influence of gastrointestinal environmental factors (pH, digestive enzymes, food components, medicaments) on the survival of Lactobacillus casei Shirota and Lactobacillus casei LC01, using a semi-dynamic in vitro model that simulates the transit of microorganisms through the human GIT. The strains were first exposed to different simulated gastric juices for different periods of time (0, 30, 60 and 120 min), and then to simulated intestinal fluids for zero, 120, 180 and 240 min, in a step-wise format. The number of viable cells was determined after each step. The influence of food residues (skim milk) in the fluids and resistance to medicaments commonly used for varied therapeutic purposes (analgesics, antiarrhythmics, antibiotics, antihistaminics, proton pump inhibitors, etc.) were also evaluated. Results indicated that survival of both cultures was pH and time dependent, and digestive enzymes had little influence. Milk components presented a protective effect, and medicaments, especially anti-inflammatory drugs, influenced markedly the viability of the probiotic cultures, indicating that the beneficial effects of the two probiotic cultures to health are dependent of environmental factors encountered in the human gastrointestinal tract.

Influence of a probiotic soy product on fecal microbiota and its association with cardiovascular risk factors in an animal model

Background: Previous work showed that daily ingestion of an aqueous soy extract fermented with Enterococcus faecium CRL 183 and Lactobacillus helveticus 416, supplemented or not with isoflavones, reduced the total cholesterol and non-HDL-cholesterol levels, increased the high-density lipoprotein (HDL) concentration and inhibited the raising of autoantibody against oxidized low-density lipoprotein (ox-LDL Ab) and the development of atherosclerotic lesions. Objective: The aim of this study was to characterize the fecal microbiota in order to investigate the possible correlation between fecal microbiota, serum lipid parameters and atherosclerotic lesion development in rabbits with induced hypercholesterolemia, that ingested the aqueous soy extract fermented with Enterococcus faecium CRL 183 and Lactobacillus helveticus 416. Methods: The rabbits were randomly allocated to five experimental groups (n = 6): control (C), hypercholesterolemic (H), hypercholesterolemic plus unfermented soy product (HUF), hypercholesterolemic plus fermented soy product (HF) and hypercholesterolemic plus isoflavone-supplemented fermented soy product (HIF). Lipid parameters and microbiota composition were analyzed on days 0 and 60 of the treatment and the atherosclerotic lesions were quantified at the end of the experiment. The fecal microbiota was characterized by enumerating the Lactobacillus spp., Bifidobacterium spp., Enterococcus spp., Enterobacteria and Clostridium spp. populations. Results: After 60 days of the experiment, intake of the probiotic soy product was correlated with significant increases (P < 0.05) on Lactobacillus spp., Bifidobacterium spp. and Enterococcus spp. and a decrease in the Enterobacteria population. A strong correlation was observed between microbiota composition and lipid profile. Populations of Enterococcus spp., Lactobacillus spp. and Bifidobacterium spp. were negatively correlated with total cholesterol, non-HDL-cholesterol, autoantibodies against oxidized LDL (ox-LDL Ab) and lesion size. HDL-C levels were positively correlated with Lactobacillus spp., Bifidobacterium spp., and Enterococcus spp. populations. Conclusion: In conclusion, daily ingestion of the probiotic soy product, supplemented or not with isoflavones, may contribute to a beneficial balance of the fecal microbiota and this modulation is associated with an improved cholesterol profile and inhibition of atherosclerotic lesion development.

Impact of the Subprime Crisis in the Provision of Credit Risk of Major National Banks

Financial institutions are directly exposed to the credit risk, that is, the risk of the borrower not fulfill with their obligations, paying their debts in its stated periods established previously. The bank predict this type of risk, including them in their balance-sheets. In 2006/2007 there was the impact of a new financial crisis that spread around the world, known as the crisis of subprime. The objective of this study is to analyze if the provisions for credit risk or liquidation increased the sprouting of the crisis of subprime in ten major national banks, chosen accordant to their total assets. To answer this question, the balance-sheets of each one of these banks in the period of 2005 to 2007 were analyzed. This research is characterized, as for its objectives, as descriptive and as for the procedures as documentary research. It is also characterized as having a qualitative approach. The results show that the crisis of subprime has caused little impact in the credit risk provision of the analyzed institutions. It was noticed a slight increase in the provision indicators at the peak of the crisis in 2006. These percentages were reduced in, 2007, probably reflecting the economic stability of Brazil and the stagnation of the crisis Of subprime in that year, at least in relation to in our country.

Country risk, national cultural differences between partners and survival of international joint ventures in Brazil

This article aims to identify the main and interaction effects of two country-level variables, namely national distance and country risk, on the survival of international joint ventures in emerging markets. Research hypotheses predicting the negative impact of national distance and country risk on survival of international joint ventures are formulated in this article. These research hypotheses are examined in a sample of 234 international joint ventures formed in Brazil between 1973 and 2004. These international joint ventures were subjected to an event history analysis over a period of time ranging from 1973 to 2006. The empirical results show that large national cultural differences between local and foreign partners increase the instability of international joint ventures, whereas the survival of these alliances does not seem to be affected either by the economic and political uncertainty of Brazil. Furthermore, the national distance between local and foreign partners has effects on survival that are variable according to the life cycle of international joint ventures. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigating the gap between citizens` sustainability attitudes and food purchasing behaviour: empirical evidence from Brazilian pork consumers

Consumers worldwide are increasingly concerned with sustainable production and consumption. Recently, a comprehensive study ranked 17 countries in regard to their environmentally friendly behaviour among consumers. Brazil was one of the top countries in the list. Yet, several studies highlight significant differences between consumers` intentions to consume ethically, and their actual purchase behaviour: the so-called `Attitude-Behaviour Gap`. In developing countries, few studies have been conducted on this issue. The objective of this study is therefore to investigate the gap between citizens` sustainability-related attitudes and food purchasing behaviour using empirical data from Brazil. To this end, Brazilian citizens` attitudes towards pig production systems were mapped through conjoint analysis and their coexistence with relevant pork product-related purchasing behaviour of consumers was investigated through cluster analysis. The conjoint experiment was carried Out with empirical data collected from 475 respondents surveyed in the South and Center-West regions of Brazil. The results of the conjoint analysis were used for a subsequent cluster analysis in order to identify clusters of Brazilian citizens with diversified attitudes towards pig production systems, using socio-demographics, attitudes towards sustainability-related themes that are expected to influence the way they evaluate pig production systems, and consumption frequency of various pork products as clusters` background information. Three clusters were identified as `indifferent`, `environmental conscious` and `sustainability-oriented` citizens. Although attitudes towards environment and nature had indeed an influence on citizens` specific attitudes towards pig farming at the cluster level, the relationship between `citizenship` and consumption behaviour was found to be weak. This finding is similar to previous research conducted with European consumers: what people (in their role of citizens) think about pig production systems does not appear to significantly influence their pork consumption choices. Improvements in the integrated management of this chain would better meet consumers` sustainability-related expectations towards pig production systems.

Revisiting the interest rate puzzle

This article makes a connection between Lucas` (1978) asset pricing model and the macroeconomic dynamics for some selected countries. Both the relative risk aversion and the impatience for postponing consumption by synthesizing the investor behaviour can help to understand some key macroeconomic issues across countries, such as the savings decision and the real interest rate. I find that the government consumption makes worse the so-called `equity premium-interest rate puzzle`. The first root of the quadratic function for explaining the real interest rate can produce this puzzle, but not the second root. Thus, Mehra and Prescott (1985) identified only one possible solution.

Hierarchical risk scale of agribusiness activities

This study aims to elaborate a hierarchical risk scale (HRS) of agricultural and cattle breeding activities and to classify the main agricultural crops and cattle breeding activities according to their risk levels. The research is characterized as exploratory and quantitative and was based on previous risk assessment (MARKOWITZ, 1952) and capital cost calculation (SHARPE, 1964) work for other business segments. The calculations on agricultural and cattle breeding data were processed for the period from 2000 to 2006. The used methods considers simplifications and adaptations needed to achieve the proposed objective. The final result, pioneering and embryonic, provides support to improve the management of these activities that are so essential to produce food for society.