A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

S/MIMO MC-CDMA Heuristic Multiuser Detectors Based on Single-Objective Optimization

This paper analyzes the complexity-performance trade-off of several heuristic near-optimum multiuser detection (MuD) approaches applied to the uplink of synchronous single/multiple-input multiple-output multicarrier code division multiple access (S/MIMO MC-CDMA) systems. Genetic algorithm (GA), short term tabu search (STTS) and reactive tabu search (RTS), simulated annealing (SA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and 1-opt local search (1-LS) heuristic multiuser detection algorithms (Heur-MuDs) are analyzed in details, using a single-objective antenna-diversity-aided optimization approach. Monte- Carlo simulations show that, after convergence, the performances reached by all near-optimum Heur-MuDs are similar. However, the computational complexities may differ substantially, depending on the system operation conditions. Their complexities are carefully analyzed in order to obtain a general complexity-performance framework comparison and to show that unitary Hamming distance search MuD (uH-ds) approaches (1-LS, SA, RTS and STTS) reach the best convergence rates, and among them, the 1-LS-MuD provides the best trade-off between implementation complexity and bit error rate (BER) performance.

Anisotropic Etching and Nanoribbon Formation in Single-Layer Graphene

We demonstrate anisotropic etching of single-layer graphene by thermally activated nickel nanoparticles. Using this technique, we obtain sub-10-nm nanoribbons and other graphene nanostructures with edges aligned along a single crystallographic direction. We observe a new catalytic channeling behavior, whereby etched cuts do not intersect, resulting in continuously connected geometries. Raman spectroscopy and electronic measurements show that the quality of the graphene is resilient under the etching conditions, indicating that this method may serve as a powerful technique to produce graphene nanocircuits with well-defined crystallographic edges.

Adsorbent new materials and composites produced in a single step

The aim of this work is the production and preliminary characterization of adsorbent new materials useful for sensor development. A new plasma chamber was simulated and designed in order to obtain multiple layers and/or composites in a single step. Plasma deposited organic fluorocompound and hexamethyldisilazane (HMDS) thin films were produced and tested as adsorbent layers. Chemical characterization used ellipsometry, Raman. infrared and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. Hydrophobic and oleophobic character were determined by contact angle measurements. Adsorption characteristics were evaluated using quartz crystal microbalance. Not only HMDS but also the fluorocompound can polymerize but intermixing and a double layer are only obtained in very narrow conditions. The films are adsorbent and mildly hydrophobic. Films deposited on a microchromatographic column can be used on sample pretreatment to remove and/or preconcentrate volatile organic Compounds. Therefore, with this approach it is possible to obtain films with different monomers on double layer or composites, with organic/inorganic materials or particles and use them on sample pretreatment for chemical analysis. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Factors affecting fertilisation and early embryo quality in single- and superovulated dairy cattle

Data on fertilisation and embryo quality in dairy cattle are presented and the main factors responsible for the low fertility of single-ovulating lactating cows and embryo yield in superovulated dairy cattle are highlighted. During the past 50 years, the fertility in high-producing lactating dairy cattle has decreased as milk production increased. Recent data show conception rates to first service to be approximately 32% in lactating cows, whereas in heifers it has remained above 50%. Fertilisation does not seem to be the principal factor responsible for the low fertility in single-ovulating cows, because it has remained above 80%. Conversely, early embryonic development is impaired in high-producing dairy cows, as observed by most embryonic losses occurring during the first week after fertilisation. However, in superovulated dairy cattle, although fertilisation failure is more pronounced, averaging approximately 45%, the percentage of fertilised embryos viable at 1 week is quite high (>70%). Among the multifactorial causes of low fertility in lactating dairy cows, high feed intake associated with low concentrations of circulating steroids may contribute substantially to reduced embryo quality. Fertilisation failure in superovulated cattle may be a consequence of inappropriate gamete transport due to hormonal imbalances.

Evaluation of the genetic variability of orchid fleck virus by single-strand conformational polymorphism analysis and nucleotide sequencing of a fragment from the nucleocapsid gene

The variability of a fragment of the nucleocapsid gene of orchid fleck virus (OFV) was investigated by single-strand conformational polymorphism (SSCP) analysis and nucleotide sequencing. Forty-eight samples of 18 genera of orchids were collected from Brazil, Costa Rica and Australia. The SSCP analysis yielded six different band patterns, and phylogenetic analysis based on the nucleotide fragment sequence obtained in this work and six available in GenBank showed two different groups, one with isolates 023Germany and So-Japan, and other with the rest of the isolates. None of the analyses showed geographic correlation among the Brazilian strains. The data obtained in this study showed a low genetic variation in this region of the genome; the d(N)/d(S) ratio of 0.251-0.405 demonstrated a negative selective pressure that maintains the stability of the analyzed fragments.

Bioequivalence Evaluation of Single Doses of Two Tramadol Formulations: A Randomized, Open-Label, Two-Period Crossover Study in Healthy Brazilian Volunteers

Background: Tramadol is a well tolerated and effective analgesic used to treat moderate to severe pain. Several generic formulations of tramadol are available in Brazil; however, published information regarding their bioequivalence in the Brazilian population is not available. A study was designed for Brazilian regulatory authorities to allow marketing of a generic formulation. Objective: The purpose of this study was to compare the bioequivalence of 2 commercial tablet preparations containing tramadol 100 mg marketed for use in Brazil. Methods: A randomized, open-label, 2 x 2 crossover study was performed in healthy Brazilian volunteers under fasting conditions with a washout period of 12 days. Two tablet formulations of tramadol 100 mg (test and reference formulations) were administered as a single oral dose, and blood samples were collected over 24 hours. Tramadol plasma concentrations were quantified using a validated HPLC method. A plasma concentration time profile was generated for each volunteer and then mean values were determined, from which C(max), T(max), AUC(0-t), AUC(0-infinity), k(e), and t(1/2) were calculated using a noncompartmental model. Bioequivalence between the products was determined by calculating 90% CIs for the ratios of C(max), AUC(0-t), and AUC(0-infinity) values for the test and reference products using log-transformed data. Tolerability was assessed by monitoring vital signs (temperature, blood pressure, heart rate), laboratory tests (hematology, blood biochemistry, hepatic function, urinalysis), and interviews with the volunteers before medication administration and every 2 hours during the study. Results: Twenty-six healthy volunteers (13 men, 13 women) were enrolled in and completed the study. Mean (SD) age was 30 (6.8) years (range, 21-44 years), mean weight was 64 (8.3) kg (range, 53-79 kg), and mean height was 166 (6.4) cm (range, 155-178 cm). The 90% CIs for the ratios of C(max) (1.01-1.17), AUC(0-t) (1.00-1.13), and AUC(0-infinity) (1.00-1.14) values for the test and reference products fell within the interval of 0.80 to 1.25 proposed by most regulatory agencies, including the Brazilian regulatory body. No clinically important adverse effects were reported; only mild somnolence was reported by 4 volunteers and mild headaches by 5 volunteers, and there was no need to use medication to treat these symptoms. Conclusion: Pharmacokinetic analysis in these healthy Brazilian volunteers suggested that the test and reference formulations of tramadol 100-mg tablets met the regulatory requirements to assume bio-equivalence based on the Brazilian regulatory definition. (Clin Ther 2010;32:758-765) (C) 2010 Excerpta Medica Inc.

Adsorption of Ni(2+), Zn(2+) and Pb(2+) onto dry biomass of Arthrospira (Spirulina) platensis and Chlorella vulgaris. I. Single metal systems

Adsorption of Ni(2+), Zn(2+) or Pb(2+) by dry biomass of Arthrospira (Spirulina) platensis and Chlorella vulgaris was studied as a function of contact time and initial metal concentration. The zero point of charge calculated for these biosorbents (pH(zpc) 4.0 and 3.4, respectively) and additional pH tests suggested the use of pH in the range 5.0-5.5 for the experiments. The equilibrium isotherms were evaluated in terms of maximum sorption capacity and sorption affinity. The pseudo first and second order kinetic models were considered to interpret the experimental data, and the latter best described the adsorption system. Both the Freundlich and Langmuir models were shown to well describe the sorption isotherms, thus suggesting an intermediate mono/multilayer sorption mechanism. Compared to A. platensis (q(e) = 0.354, 0.495 and 0.508 mmol g(-1) for Ni(2+), Pb(2)+ and Zn(2+), respectively), C. vulgaris behaved as a better biosorbent because of higher equilibrium sorption capacity (q(e) = 0.499, 0.634 and 0.664 mmol g(-1), respectively). The removal efficiency decreased with increasing metal concentration, pointing out a passive adsorption process involving the active sites on the surface of the biomasses. The FT-IR spectroscopy evidenced that ions removal occurred mainly by interaction between metal and carboxylate groups present on both the cell walls. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pharmacokinetics of tetracycline in plasma, synovial fluid and milk using single intravenous and single intravenous regional doses in dairy cattle with papillomatous digital dermatitis

The purpose of this study was to compare the pharmacokinetics of tetracycline in plasma, synovial fluid, and milk following either a single systemic intravenous (i.v.) injection or a single i.v. regional antibiosis (IVRA) administration of tetracycline hydrochloride to dairy cattle with papillomatous digital dermatitis (PDD). To this end, plasma and synovial fluid tetracycline concentrations were compared with the minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) values of the major bacteria, which are known to cause digital diseases and thus assess its efficacy in PDD. Residual tetracycline concentrations in milk from cows treated by both methods were also determined. Twelve Holstein cows with various stages of PDD were randomly assigned to two groups of six animals. Group 1 received a single systemic i.v. injection of 10 mg/kg of tetracycline hydrochloride. Group 2 received 1000 mg of tetracycline hydrochloride by IVRA of the affected limb. Blood, synovial fluid and milk samples were taken prior to tetracycline administration (time 0 control), and then at 22, 45 and 82 min, and 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 12, 24, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h following drug administration. Tetracycline concentrations were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography. Mean tetracycline plasma and milk concentrations in Group 1 were higher than Group 2. The opposite was observed for synovial fluid concentrations. Group 2 synovial fluid concentrations were higher than the MIC value over 24 h for the bacteria most frequently responsible for claw disease. Compared with i.v. administration, IVRA administration of tetracycline produced very high synovial fluid and low plasma and milk concentrations.

Bioequivalence and pharmacokinetics of two zidovudine formulations in healthy Brazilian volunteers: An open-label, randomized, single-dose, two-way crossover study

Background: Zidovudine is a thymidine nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor with activity against HIV type 1. Some (similar to 8) generic formulations of zidovudine are available in Brazil; however, based on a literature search, information concerning their bioavailability and pharmacokinetic properties in the Brazilian population has not been reported. Objective: The aim of this study was to compare the bioavailability and pharmacokinetic properties of 2 capsule formulations of zidovudine 100 mg in healthy Brazilian volunteers. Methods: This open-label, randomized, 2-way crossover study utilized a 1-week washout period between doses. Blood samples were collected for 8 hours after a single dose of zidovudine 100-mg test (Zidovudina, Fundaqdo para o Remedio Popular, Sao Paulo, Brazil) or reference formulation (Retrovir (R), GlaxoSmithKline, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania). Plasma zidovudine concentrations were determined using a validated high-performance liquid chromatography method with ultraviolet detection at 265 nm. C-max, T-max, AUC(0-t), AUC(0-infinity), t(1/2), and the elimination constant (k(e)) were determined using noncompartmental analysis. The formulations were considered bioequivalent if the 90% CIS for C-max, AUC(0-t), and AUC(0-infinity) fell within the interval of 80 % to 125 %, the regulatory definition set by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Results: Twenty-four healthy volunteers (12 males, 12 females; mean age, 27 years; weight, 60 kg; height, 167 cm) were enrolled and completed the study. The 90% CIs of the treatment ratios for the logarithmic-transformed values of C-max, AUC(0-t), and AUC(0-infinity) were 80.0% to 113.6%, 93.9% to 109.7%, and 93.6% to 110.1 %, respectively. The values for the test and reference formulations were within the FDA bioequivalence definition intervals of 80% to 125%. Conclusions: In this small study in healthy subjects, no statistically significant differences in C-max, AUC(0-t), and AUC(0-)infinity were found between the test and reference formulations of zidovudine 100-mg capsules. The 90% CIs for the mean ratio values for the test and reference formulations of AUC(0-t), AUC(0-infinity), and C-max indicated that the reported data were entirely within the bioequivalence acceptance range proposed by the FDA of 80% to 125% (using log-transformed data).

Improved cure of bacterial vaginosis with single dose of tinidazole (2 g), Lactobacillus rhamnosus GR-1, and Lactobacillus reuteri RC-14: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Bacterial vaginosis (BV) is the most prevalent vaginal infection worldwide and is characterized by depletion of the indigenous lactobacilli. Antimicrobial therapy is often ineffective. We hypothesized that probiotic Lactobacillus rhamnosus GR-1 and Lactobacillus reuteri RC-14 might provide an adjunct to antimicrobial treatment and improve cure rates. Sixty-four Brazilian women diagnosed with BV were randomly assigned to receive a single dose of tinidazole (2 g) supplemented with either 2 placebo capsules or 2 capsules containing L. rhamnosus GR-1 and L. reuteri RC-14 every morning for the following 4 weeks. At the end of treatment (day 28), the probiotic group had a significantly higher cure rate of BV (87.5%) than the placebo group (50.0%) (p = 0.001). In addition, according to the Gram-stain Nugent score, more women were assessed with ""normal`` vaginal microbiota in the probiotic group (75.0% vs. 34.4% in the placebo group; p = 0.011). This study shows that probiotic lactobacilli can provide benefits to women being treated with antibiotics for an infectious condition.

Diagnosis of Organizational Soft Problems in a Peruvian Financial Institution by Systemic Thinking

Managing financial institutions in an underdeveloped economic context has become a real challenge nowadays. In order to reach the organization`s planned goals, they have to deal with structural, behavioral and informational problems. From the systemic point of view, this situation gets even worse when the company does not present organizational boundaries and a cohesive identification for their stakeholders. Thus, European countries have some special financial lines in order to help the development of micro credit in Latin communities in an attempt to help the local economy. However, institutions like Caixa dos Andes in Peru present management problems when dealing with this complexity. Based on this, how can the systemic eye help in the diagnosis of soft problems of a Peruvian financial company? This study aims to diagnose soft problems of a Peruvian financial company based on soft variables like identity, communication and autonomy and also intends to identify possible ways to redesign its basic framework. The (VSM--Viable System Model) method from Beer (1967), applied in this diagnostic study, was used in a practical way as a management tool for organizations` analysis and planning. By describing the VSM`s five systems, the creation of a systemic vision or a total vision is possible, showing the organization`s complexity from the inside. Some company`s soft problems like double control, inefficient use of physical and human resources, low information flows, slowness, etc. The VSM presented an organizational diagnosis indicating effective solutions that do integrate its five systems.

Study of acetylcholinesterase activity in rectal suction biopsy for diagnosis of intestinal dysganglionoses: 17-year experience of a single center

Although the utility of the acetylcholinesterase (AChE) histochemistry on rectal suction biopsy in diagnosing Hirschsprung`s disease (HD) has been documented, few reports address a great number of biopsies and patients. Our aim is to present a 17-year experience on the method of rectal suction biopsy and AChE histochemical staining for diagnosis of intestinal dysganglionoses. Between August 1989 and July 2006, 297 children suspected of having HD were submitted to rectal suction biopsies that were evaluated by the same two surgeons. There were 18 complications (6.0%), namely one self-limited rectal bleeding and 17 (5.7%) inadequate procedures that were repeated. A total of 157 patients (52.8%) showed no increased AChE activity and the remaining patients (140-47.2.0%) presented patterns of increased AChE activity confirming the diagnosis of HD or neuronal intestinal dysplasia. Among the 140 cases suspected as having HD, in 131 children the diagnosis of HD was confirmed and they were operated on. The histological studies showed that 111 children presented the classic form of HD or a long spastic segment. Sixteen children presented total colonic aganglionosis and four children proved to have intestinal neuronal dysplasia, according to histological and radiological criteria. Nine (6.6%) newborns were identified as false-positives and no false-negative results were verified. The rectal suction biopsy combined with AChE staining is advantageous for the differentiation between normal bowel and intestinal dysganglionoses. The rectal suction method is simple and can easily be performed by experienced surgeons. The histological evaluation is very objective and can be performed by a non-pathologist.

Prevalence of Alcohol-Related Problems in an Elderly Population and Their Association With Cognitive Impairment and Dementia

Background: Studies investigating the association between alcohol use and cognitive disorders in the elderly population have produced divergent results. Moreover, the role of alcohol in cognitive dysfunction is not clear. The aims of this study were to estimate the prevalence of alcohol-related problems in an elderly population from Brazil and to investigate their association with cognitive and functional impairment (CFI) and dementia. Methods: A community-based cross-sectional study was performed. A sample of 1,145 elderly people was examined in 2 phases. Several instruments were utilized in the first phase: the CAGE questionnaire was used to identify potential cases of alcohol-related problems, and a screening test for dementia was used to estimate CFI. The CAMDEX interview (Cambridge Examination) and DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition) criteria were used for the clinical diagnosis of dementia in the second phase. Results: ""Heavy alcohol use"" (CAGE >= 2) was found in 92 subjects (prevalence: 8.2%). It was associated with gender (males, p < 0.001), low education (only in females, p = 0.002), and low socioeconomic level (p = 0.001, in females; p = 0.002, in males). The Mini Mental State Examination exhibited a nonlinear relationship with alcohol-related problems in females; ""mild-moderate alcohol use"" (CAGE < 2) presented the highest score. A significant association between alcohol-related problems and cognitive dysfunction was found only in females. ""Heavy alcohol use"" was associated with higher CFI and dementia rates compared to ""mild-moderate alcohol use"" (p = 0.003 and p < 0.001, respectively). ""Mild-moderate alcohol use"" had a tendency of association with lower CFI and dementia rates when compared to ""no alcohol use"" (p = 0.063 and 0.050, respectively). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that alcohol use does not have a linear relationship with cognitive decline.

Effectiveness of the CAGE questionnaire, gamma-glutamyltransferase and mean corpuscular volume of red blood cells as markers for alcohol-related problems in the workplace

Objective: To evaluate the usefulness of gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) and mean corpuscular volume (MCV), as well as that of the CAGE questionnaire, in workplace screening for alcohol abuse/dependence. Methods: A total of 183 male employees were submitted to structured interviews (Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV 2.0 and CAGE questionnaire). Blood samples were collected. Diagnostic accuracy and odds ratio were determined for the CAGE, GGT and MCV. Results: The CAGE questionnaire presented the best sensitivity for alcohol dependence (91%; specificity, 87.8%) and for alcohol abuse (87.5%, specificity, 80.9%), which increased when the questionnaire was used in combination with GGT (sensitivity, 100% and 87.5%, respectively; specificity, 68% and 61.5, respectively). CAGE positive results and/or alterations in GGT were less likely to occur among employees not presenting alcohol abuse/ dependence than among those presenting such abuse (OR for CAGE = 13, p < 0.05; OR for CAGE-GGT = 11, p < 0.05) or dependence (OR for CAGE = 76, p < 0.0 1; OR for GGT = 5, p < 0.0 1). Employees not presenting alcohol abuse/dependence were also several times more likely to present negative CAGE or GGT results. Conclusions: The use short, simple questionnaires, combined with that of low-cost biochemical markers, such as GGT, can serve as an initial screening for alcohol-related problems, especially for employees in hazardous occupations. The data provided can serve to corroborate clinical findings. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.