A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

A calibration approach based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy inference system for digital electronic compasses

Recently, the development of industrial processes brought on the outbreak of technologically complex systems. This development generated the necessity of research relative to the mathematical techniques that have the capacity to deal with project complexities and validation. Fuzzy models have been receiving particular attention in the area of nonlinear systems identification and analysis due to it is capacity to approximate nonlinear behavior and deal with uncertainty. A fuzzy rule-based model suitable for the approximation of many systems and functions is the Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model. IS fuzzy models are nonlinear systems described by a set of if then rules which gives local linear representations of an underlying system. Such models can approximate a wide class of nonlinear systems. In this paper a performance analysis of a system based on IS fuzzy inference system for the calibration of electronic compass devices is considered. The contribution of the evaluated IS fuzzy inference system is to reduce the error obtained in data acquisition from a digital electronic compass. For the reliable operation of the TS fuzzy inference system, adequate error measurements must be taken. The error noise must be filtered before the application of the IS fuzzy inference system. The proposed method demonstrated an effectiveness of 57% at reducing the total error based on considered tests. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear Interactions in a Piezoceramic Bar Transducer Powered by a Vacuum Tube Generated by a Nonideal Source

Interactions between the oscillations of piezoceramic transducer and the mechanism of as excitation-the generator of the electric current of limited power-supply-are analyzed in this paper In practical situations, the dynamics of the forcing function on a vibrating system cannot be considered as given a priori, and it must be taken as a consequence of the dynamics of the whole system. In other words, the forcing source has limited power as that provided by a dc motor for an example, and thus its own dynamics is influenced by that of the vibrating system being forced. This increases the number of degrees of freedom of the problem, and it is called a nonideal problem. In this work, we present certain phenomena as Sommerfeld effect, jump, saturation, and stability, through the influences of the parameters of the governing equations motion. [DOI: 10.1115/1.3007909]

Extensions of discrete triangular distributions and boundary bias in kernel estimation for discrete functions

Asymmetric discrete triangular distributions are introduced in order to extend the symmetric ones serving for discrete associated kernels in the nonparametric estimation for discrete functions. The extension from one to two orders around the mode provides a large family of discrete distributions having a finite support. Establishing a bridge between Dirac and discrete uniform distributions, some different shapes are also obtained and their properties are investigated. In particular, the mean and variance are pointed out. Applications to discrete kernel estimators are given with a solution to a boundary bias problem. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bias-corrected Pearson estimating functions for Taylor`s power law applied to benthic macrofauna data

Estimation of Taylor`s power law for species abundance data may be performed by linear regression of the log empirical variances on the log means, but this method suffers from a problem of bias for sparse data. We show that the bias may be reduced by using a bias-corrected Pearson estimating function. Furthermore, we investigate a more general regression model allowing for site-specific covariates. This method may be efficiently implemented using a Newton scoring algorithm, with standard errors calculated from the inverse Godambe information matrix. The method is applied to a set of biomass data for benthic macrofauna from two Danish estuaries. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models

The objective of the present study was to estimate milk yield genetic parameters applying random regression models and parametric correlation functions combined with a variance function to model animal permanent environmental effects. A total of 152,145 test-day milk yields from 7,317 first lactations of Holstein cows belonging to herds located in the southeastern region of Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were divided into 44 weekly classes of days in milk. Contemporary groups were defined by herd-test-day comprising a total of 2,539 classes. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental, and residual random effects. The following fixed effects were considered: contemporary group, age of cow at calving (linear and quadratic regressions), and the population average lactation curve modeled by fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. Additive genetic effects were modeled by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials of days in milk, whereas permanent environmental effects were estimated using a stationary or nonstationary parametric correlation function combined with a variance function of different orders. The structure of residual variances was modeled using a step function containing 6 variance classes. The genetic parameter estimates obtained with the model using a stationary correlation function associated with a variance function to model permanent environmental effects were similar to those obtained with models employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials for the same effect. A model using a sixth-order polynomial for additive effects and a stationary parametric correlation function associated with a seventh-order variance function to model permanent environmental effects would be sufficient for data fitting.

Novel benzofuroxan derivatives against multidrug-resistant Staphylococcus aureus strains: Design using Topliss` decision tree, synthesis and biological assay

The aim of this study was the design of a set of benzofuroxan derivatives as antimicrobial agents exploring the physicochemical properties of the related substituents. Topliss` decision tree approach was applied to select the substituent groups. Hierarchical cluster analysis was also performed to emphasize natural clusters and patterns. The compounds were obtained using two synthetic approaches for reducing the synthetic steps as well as improving the yield. The minimal inhibitory concentration method was employed to evaluate the activity against multidrug-resistant Staphylococcus aureus strains. The most active compound was 4-nitro-3-(trifluoromethyl)[N`-(benzofuroxan-5-yl) methylene] benzhydrazide (MIC range 12.7-11.4 mu g/mL), pointing out that the antimicrobial activity was indeed influenced by the hydrophobic and electron-withdrawing property of the substituent groups 3-CF(3) and 4-NO(2), respectively. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of chlorogenic acid on neutrophil locomotion functions in response to inflammatory stimulus

Aim of the study: Species of Lychnophora are used in Brazilian folk medicine as analgesic and anti-inflammatory agents. Chlorogenic acid (CGA) and their analogues are important components of polar extracts of these species, as well in several European and Asian medicinal plants. Some of these phenolic compounds display anti-inflammatory effects. In this paper we report the isolation of CGA from Lychnophora salicifolia and its effects on functions involved in neutrophils locomotion. Materials and methods: LC-MS(n) data confirmed the presence of CGA in the plant. Actions of CGA were investigated on neutrophils obtained from peritoneal cavity of Wistar rats (4h after 1% oyster glycogen solution injection; 10 ml), and incubated with vehicle or with 50, 100 or 1000 mu M CGA in presence of lipopolysaccharide from Escherichia coil (LPS, 5 mu g/ml). Nitric oxide (NO; Griess reaction); prostaglandin E(2) (PGE(2)), interleukin-1 beta (IL-1 beta) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha [TNF-alpha; enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (EIA)]; protein (flow cytometry) and gene (RT-PCR) expression of L-selectin, beta(2)integrin and platelet-endothelial cell adhesion molecule-1 (PECAM-1) were quantified. In vitro neutrophil adhesion to primary culture of microvascular endothelial cell (PMEC) and neutrophil migration in response to formyl-methionil-leucil-phenilalanine (fMLP, 10(-8)M, Boyden chamber) was determined. Results: CGA treatment did not modify the secretion of inflammatory mediators, but inhibited L-selectin cleavage and reduced beta(2) integrin, independently from its mRNA synthesis, and reduced membrane PECAM-1 expression: inhibited neutrophil adhesion and neutrophil migration induced by fMLP. Conclusions: Based on these findings, we highlight the direct inhibitory actions of CGA on adhesive and locomotion properties of neutrophils, which may contribute to its anti-inflammatory effects and help to explain the use of Lychnophora salicifolia as an anti-inflammatory agent. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of methylmercury on male reproductive functions in Wistar rats

In this study we investigated the effects of subacute exposure to methylmercury (MeHg) on male reproductive functions in rats by means of determination of alterations in structural and functional parameters. Adult male Wistar rats received 0, 0.5, 1.0 or 3.0 mg/kg/body weight/day orally, daily MeHg for 14 days. Sperm motility, the relative sperm count and transit time in the caput/corpus epididymis, were all reduced at all doses. The lowest dose increased the number of sperm head abnormalities; daily sperm production was elevated at the intermediate dose; while at the highest dose there was a decrease in serum testosterone levels and a rise in mercury (Hg) content in reproductive organs, liver and kidneys. In conclusion, MeHg exposure produced damages on male reproductive functions which may be attributed, at least in part, to the reduction in serum testosterone levels. These consequences could potentially result in infertility in rats. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Incorporating demand-side aspects into regional policy: variations in the importance of private investment decision factors across regions

Most regional programs focus on the supply side of regions, emphasizing the attraction conditions offered, such as infrastructure, labor skills, tax incentives, etc. This study analyzes one aspect of the demand side, that is, how investment decisions of private firms are made by asking the question: ""Do corporations decide the same way on investments in different parts of the territory?"" The paper analyzes the investments of 373 large Brazilian firms during 1996-2004. Based on the investment decisions of these firms, the role of sales, cash-flow, external financing, and working capital is investigated through regression analysis. The regional influence is captured by explanatory variables representing regional and firm characteristics, and by interaction dummies between the region and the main investment determinants. The results indicate significant differences across regions in the importance of investment determinants. This information is important for regional development policy, because different mechanisms should be used in different regions to foster private investments.

Stakeholders Theory and Theory of the Firm: a study on the hierarchy of objective-functions in Brazilian companies

Discussion opposing the Theory of the Firm to the Theory of Stakeholders are contemporaneous and polemical. One focal point of such debates refers to which objective-function companies, should choose, whether that of the shareholders or that of the stakeholders, and whether it is possible to opt for both simultaneously. Several empirical studies. have attempted-to test a possible correlation between both functions, and there has not been any consensus-so far. The objective of the present research is to examine a gap in such discussions: is there (or not) a subordination of the stakeholders` objective-function to that of the shareholders? The research is empirical,and analytical and employs quantitative methods. Hypotheses were tested and data analyzed by using non-parametrical (chi-square test) and parametrical procedures (frequency. correlation `coefficient). Secondary data was collected from he Economitica database and from the Brazilian Institute of Social and-Economic Analyses (IBASE) website, relative to public companies that have published their Social Balance Statements following the IBASE model from 1999 to 2006, whose sample amounted to 65 companies; In order to assess the objective-function of shareholders a proxy was created based on the following three indices: ROE (return on equity), EnterpriseValue and Tobin`s Q. In order to assess the objective-function of stakeholders a proxy was created by employing the following IBASE social balance indices: internal ones (ISI), external ones (ISE), and environmental ones (IAM). The results have shown no evidence of subordination of stakeholders` objective-function to that of the shareholders in analyzed companies, negating initial expectations and calling for deeper investigation of results. Its main conclusion, which states that the attempted subordination does not take place, is limited to the sample herein investigated and calls for ongoing research aiming at improvements which may lead to sample enlargement and, as a consequence, may make feasible the application of other statistical techniques which may yield a more thorough, analysis of the studied phenomehon.

On S-asymptotically omega-periodic functions on Banach spaces and applications

This paper is devoted to the study of the class of continuous and bounded functions f : [0, infinity] -> X for which exists omega > 0 such that lim(t ->infinity) (f (t + omega) - f (t)) = 0 (in the sequel called S-asymptotically omega-periodic functions). We discuss qualitative properties and establish some relationships between this type of functions and the class of asymptotically omega-periodic functions. We also study the existence of S-asymptotically omega-periodic mild solutions of the first-order abstract Cauchy problem in Banach spaces. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decision rules for egg recognition are related to functional roles and chemical cues in the queenless ant Dinoponera quadriceps

The capacity to distinguish colony members from strangers is a key component in social life. In social insects, this extends to the brood and involves discrimination of queen eggs. Chemical substances communicate colony affiliation for both adults and brood; thus, in theory, all colony members should be able to recognize fellow nestmates. In this study, we investigate the ability of Dinoponera quadriceps workers to discriminate nestmate and non-nestmate eggs based on cuticular hydrocarbon composition. We analyzed whether cuticular hydrocarbons present on the eggs provide cues of discrimination. The results show that egg recognition in D. quadriceps is related to both age and the functional role of workers. Brood care workers were able to distinguish nestmate from non-nestmate eggs, while callow and forager workers were unable to do so.

Existence results for abstract impulsive second-order neutral functional differential equations

We establish the existence of mild solutions for a class of impulsive second-order partial neutral functional differential equations with infinite delay in a Banach space. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd

A New Family of Distance Functions for Perceptual Similarity Retrieval of Medical Images

A long-standing challenge of content-based image retrieval (CBIR) systems is the definition of a suitable distance function to measure the similarity between images in an application context which complies with the human perception of similarity. In this paper, we present a new family of distance functions, called attribute concurrence influence distances (AID), which serve to retrieve images by similarity. These distances address an important aspect of the psychophysical notion of similarity in comparisons of images: the effect of concurrent variations in the values of different image attributes. The AID functions allow for comparisons of feature vectors by choosing one of two parameterized expressions: one targeting weak attribute concurrence influence and the other for strong concurrence influence. This paper presents the mathematical definition and implementation of the AID family for a two-dimensional feature space and its extension to any dimension. The composition of the AID family with L (p) distance family is considered to propose a procedure to determine the best distance for a specific application. Experimental results involving several sets of medical images demonstrate that, taking as reference the perception of the specialist in the field (radiologist), the AID functions perform better than the general distance functions commonly used in CBIR.