Role of noise in population dynamics cycles

Noise is an intrinsic feature of population dynamics and plays a crucial role in oscillations called phase-forgetting quasicycles by converting damped into sustained oscillations. This function of noise becomes evident when considering Langevin equations whose deterministic part yields only damped oscillations. We formulate here a consistent and systematic approach to population dynamics, leading to a Fokker-Planck equation and the associate Langevin equations in accordance with this conceptual framework, founded on stochastic lattice-gas models that describe spatially structured predator-prey systems. Langevin equations in the population densities and predator-prey pair density are derived in two stages. First, a birth-and-death stochastic process in the space of prey and predator numbers and predator-prey pair number is obtained by a contraction method that reduces the degrees of freedom. Second, a van Kampen expansion in the inverse of system size is then performed to get the Fokker-Planck equation. We also study the time correlation function, the asymptotic behavior of which is used to characterize the transition from the cyclic coexistence of species to the ordinary coexistence.

Time correlation function in systems with two coexisting biological species

We study a stochastic lattice model describing the dynamics of coexistence of two interacting biological species. The model comprehends the local processes of birth, death, and diffusion of individuals of each species and is grounded on interaction of the predator-prey type. The species coexistence can be of two types: With self-sustained coupled time oscillations of population densities and without oscillations. We perform numerical simulations of the model on a square lattice and analyze the temporal behavior of each species by computing the time correlation functions as well as the spectral densities. This analysis provides an appropriate characterization of the different types of coexistence. It is also used to examine linked population cycles in nature and in experiment.

Bayesian online algorithms for learning in discrete Hidden Markov Models

We propose and analyze two different Bayesian online algorithms for learning in discrete Hidden Markov Models and compare their performance with the already known Baldi-Chauvin Algorithm. Using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a measure of generalization we draw learning curves in simplified situations for these algorithms and compare their performances.

Shared information in stationary states of stochastic processes

We present four estimators of the shared information (or interdepency) in ground states given that the coefficients appearing in the wave function are all real non-negative numbers and therefore can be interpreted as probabilities of configurations. Such ground states of Hermitian and non-Hermitian Hamiltonians can be given, for example, by superpositions of valence bond states which can describe equilibrium but also stationary states of stochastic models. We consider in detail the last case, the system being a classical not a quantum one. Using analytical and numerical methods we compare the values of the estimators in the directed polymer and the raise and peel models which have massive, conformal invariant and nonconformal invariant massless phases. We show that like in the case of the quantum problem, the estimators verify the area law with logarithmic corrections when phase transitions take place.

Physical signatures of discontinuities of the time-dependent exchange-correlation potential

The exact exchange-correlation (XC) potential in time-dependent density-functional theory (TDDFT) is known to develop steps and discontinuities upon change of the particle number in spatially confined regions or isolated subsystems. We demonstrate that the self-interaction corrected adiabatic local-density approximation for the XC potential has this property, using the example of electron loss of a model quantum well system. We then study the influence of the XC potential discontinuity in a real-time simulation of a dissociation process of an asymmetric double quantum well system, and show that it dramatically affects the population of the resulting isolated single quantum wells. This indicates the importance of a proper account of the discontinuities in TDDFT descriptions of ionization, dissociation or charge transfer processes.

Context tree selection: A unifying view

Context tree models have been introduced by Rissanen in [25] as a parsimonious generalization of Markov models. Since then, they have been widely used in applied probability and statistics. The present paper investigates non-asymptotic properties of two popular procedures of context tree estimation: Rissanen's algorithm Context and penalized maximum likelihood. First showing how they are related, we prove finite horizon bounds for the probability of over- and under-estimation. Concerning overestimation, no boundedness or loss-of-memory conditions are required: the proof relies on new deviation inequalities for empirical probabilities of independent interest. The under-estimation properties rely on classical hypotheses for processes of infinite memory. These results improve on and generalize the bounds obtained in Duarte et al. (2006) [12], Galves et al. (2008) [18], Galves and Leonardi (2008) [17], Leonardi (2010) [22], refining asymptotic results of Buhlmann and Wyner (1999) [4] and Csiszar and Talata (2006) [9]. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Collision probabilities in the rarefaction fan of asymmetric exclusion processes

We consider the one-dimensional asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP) in which particles jump to the right at rate p is an element of (1/2, 1.] and to the left at rate 1 - p, interacting by exclusion. In the initial state there is a finite region such that to the left of this region all sites are occupied and to the right of it all sites are empty. Under this initial state, the hydrodynamical limit of the process converges to the rarefaction fan of the associated Burgers equation. In particular suppose that the initial state has first-class particles to the left of the origin, second-class particles at sites 0 and I, and holes to the right of site I. We show that the probability that the two second-class particles eventually collide is (1 + p)/(3p), where a collision occurs when one of the particles attempts to jump over the other. This also corresponds to the probability that two ASEP processes. started from appropriate initial states and coupled using the so-called ""basic coupling,"" eventually reach the same state. We give various other results about the behaviour of second-class particles in the ASEP. In the totally asymmetric case (p = 1) we explain a further representation in terms of a multi-type particle system, and also use the collision result to derive the probability of coexistence of both clusters in a two-type version of the corner growth model.

Prevalence of fibromyalgia in a low socioeconomic status population

Background: The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of fibromyalgia, as well as to assess the major symptoms of this syndrome in an adult, low socioeconomic status population assisted by the primary health care system in a city in Brazil. Methods: We cross-sectionally sampled individuals assisted by the public primary health care system (n = 768, 35-60 years old). Participants were interviewed by phone and screened about pain. They were then invited to be clinically assessed (304 accepted). Pain was estimated using a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). Fibromyalgia was assessed using the Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire (FIQ), as well as screening for tender points using dolorimetry. Statistical analyses included Bayesian Statistics and the Kruskal-Wallis Anova test (significance level = 5%). Results: From the phone-interview screening, we divided participants (n = 768) in three groups: No Pain (NP) (n = 185); Regional Pain (RP) (n = 388) and Widespread Pain (WP) (n = 106). Among those participating in the clinical assessments, (304 subjects), the prevalence of fibromyalgia was 4.4% (95% confidence interval [2.6%; 6.3%]). Symptoms of pain (VAS and FIQ), feeling well, job ability, fatigue, morning tiredness, stiffness, anxiety and depression were statically different among the groups. In multivariate analyses we found that individuals with FM and WP had significantly higher impairment than those with RP and NP. FM and WP were similarly disabling. Similarly, RP was no significantly different than NP. Conclusion: Fibromyalgia is prevalent in the low socioeconomic status population assisted by the public primary health care system. Prevalence was similar to other studies (4.4%) in a more diverse socioeconomic population. Individuals with FM and WP have significant impact in their well being.

TESTING STATISTICAL HYPOTHESIS ON RANDOM TREES AND APPLICATIONS TO THE PROTEIN CLASSIFICATION PROBLEM

Efficient automatic protein classification is of central importance in genomic annotation. As an independent way to check the reliability of the classification, we propose a statistical approach to test if two sets of protein domain sequences coming from two families of the Pfam database are significantly different. We model protein sequences as realizations of Variable Length Markov Chains (VLMC) and we use the context trees as a signature of each protein family. Our approach is based on a Kolmogorov-Smirnov-type goodness-of-fit test proposed by Balding et at. [Limit theorems for sequences of random trees (2008), DOI: 10.1007/s11749-008-0092-z]. The test statistic is a supremum over the space of trees of a function of the two samples; its computation grows, in principle, exponentially fast with the maximal number of nodes of the potential trees. We show how to transform this problem into a max-flow over a related graph which can be solved using a Ford-Fulkerson algorithm in polynomial time on that number. We apply the test to 10 randomly chosen protein domain families from the seed of Pfam-A database (high quality, manually curated families). The test shows that the distributions of context trees coming from different families are significantly different. We emphasize that this is a novel mathematical approach to validate the automatic clustering of sequences in any context. We also study the performance of the test via simulations on Galton-Watson related processes.

Heritability of cardiovascular risk factors in a Brazilian population: Baependi Heart Study

Background: The heritability of cardiovascular risk factors is expected to differ between populations because of the different distribution of environmental risk factors, as well as the genetic make-up of different human populations. Methods: The purpose of this analysis was to evaluate genetic and environmental influences on cardiovascular risk factor traits, using a variance component approach, by estimating the heritability of these traits in a sample of 1,666 individuals in 81 families ascertained randomly from a highly admixed population of a city in a rural area in Brazil. Results: Before adjustment for sex, age, age(2), and age x sex interaction, polygenic heritability of systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure were 15.0% and 16.4%, waist circumference 26.1%, triglycerides 25.7%, fasting glucose 32.8%, HDL-c 31.2%, total cholesterol 28.6%, LDL-c 26.3%, BMI 39.1%. Adjustment for covariates increased polygenic heritability estimates for all traits mainly systolic and diastolic blood pressure (25.9 and 26.2%, respectively), waist circumference (40.1%), and BMI (51.0%). Conclusion: Heritability estimates for cardiovascular traits in the Brazilian population are high and not significantly different from other studied worldwide populations. Mapping efforts to identify genetic loci associated with variability of these traits are warranted.

Hitting and returning to rare events for all alpha-mixing processes

We prove that for any a-mixing stationary process the hitting time of any n-string A(n) converges, when suitably normalized, to an exponential law. We identify the normalization constant lambda(A(n)). A similar statement holds also for the return time. To establish this result we prove two other results of independent interest. First, we show a relation between the rescaled hitting time and the rescaled return time, generalizing a theorem of Haydn, Lacroix and Vaienti. Second, we show that for positive entropy systems, the probability of observing any n-string in n consecutive observations goes to zero as n goes to infinity. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Gibbs random graphs on point processes

Consider a discrete locally finite subset Gamma of R(d) and the cornplete graph (Gamma, E), with vertices Gamma and edges E. We consider Gibbs measures on the set of sub-graphs with vertices Gamma and edges E` subset of E. The Gibbs interaction acts between open edges having a vertex in common. We study percolation properties of the Gibbs distribution of the graph ensemble. The main results concern percolation properties of the open edges in two cases: (a) when Gamma is sampled from a homogeneous Poisson process; and (b) for a fixed Gamma with sufficiently sparse points. (c) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3514605]

Abundance of sedentary consumers and sessile organisms along the wave exposure gradient of subtropical rocky shores of the south-west Atlantic

Sedentary consumers play an important role on populations of prey and, hence, their patterns of abundance, distribution and coexistence on shores are important to evaluate their potential influence on ecosystem dynamics. Here, we aimed to describe their spatio-temporal distribution and abundance in relation to wave exposure in the intertidal rocky shores of the south-west Atlantic to provide a basis for further understanding of ecological processes in this system. The abundance and composition of the functional groups of sessile organisms and sedentary consumers were taken by sampling the intertidal of sheltered and moderately exposed shores during a period of one year. The sublittoral fringe of sheltered areas was dominated by macroalgae, while the low midlittoral was dominated by bare rock and barnacles. In contrast, filter-feeding animals prevailed at exposed shores, probably explaining the higher abundance of the predator Stramonita haemastoma at these locations. Limpets were more abundant at the midlittoral zone of all shores while sea urchins were exclusively found at the sublittoral fringe of moderately exposed shores, therefore, adding grazing pressure on these areas. The results showed patterns of coexistence, distribution and abundance of those organisms in this subtropical area, presumably as a result of wave action, competition and prey availability. It also brought insights on the influence of top-down and bottom-up processes in this area.

Source populations in coastal crabs: parameters affecting egg production

Benthic marine invertebrates may form metapopulations connected via propagule dispersal. Conservation efforts often target potential source coastlines to indirectly benefit areas depending on allochthonous offspring production. Besides population density, adult size structure, sex ratio, brooding frequency and the proportion of breeding individuals may significantly influence the reproductive output of benthic populations, but these effects have seldom been tested. We used rocky shore crabs to assess the spatial variability of such parameters at relevant scales for conservation purposes and to test their consistency over 2 consecutive years; we then used the data to address whether bottom-up processes or biological interactions might explain the patterns observed. We decomposed egg production rates into their components for the 2 most abundant brachyuran species inhabiting the intertidal rocky habitat. Adult density and brooding frequency varied consistently among shores for both species and largely explained the overall spatial trends of egg production. Temporally consistent patterns also included among-shore differences in the size of ovigerous females of the grapsid Pachygrapsus transversus and between-bay differences in the fecundity of the spider crab Epialtus brasiliensis. Sex ratio was remarkably constant in both. We found no positive or negative correlations between adult density and brooding frequency to support either the existence of a component Allee effect (lack of mate encounters) or an effect of intra-specific competition. Likewise, shore-specific potential growth in P. transversus does not negatively correlate with frequency of ovigerous individuals, as would be expected under a critical balance between these 2 processes. The patterns observed suggest that bottom-up drivers may best explain spatial trends in the reproductive output of these species.

Effect of crab size and habitat type on the locomotory activity of juvenile shore crabs, Carcinus maenas

Post-settlement processes are a major focus in the study of the dynamics of marine populations and communities. Post-settlement movement of juveniles is an important, but often ignored, process which affects local predator-prey and competitive interactions. We used benthic suction sampling and pitfall traps to examine density and locomotory activity of Carcinus maenas juveniles in different intertidal habitat types in the Rio Mira Estuary, Portugal, to better understand intra-specific interactions in a system where density-dependent processes are known to regulate population dynamics. As expected, significantly higher densities of juvenile shore crabs were found from bare mud compared to densely vegetated habitats. At the time of sampling, small and intermediate stages together outnumbered by far the larger juveniles. Conversely, larger crabs were much more frequent than smaller ones in traps. A locomotory index (LI), i.e. the ratio between crab catch in pitfall traps and their density within their moving range, is proposed as a measure of movement. LI analyses indicated that: (1) movement is an order of magnitude higher in large than small juveniles and much higher in sparse than dense vegetation cover; (2) activity of small juveniles is mostly crepuscular, regardless of vegetation cover; and (3) movement of large juveniles is very limited in dense Zostera patches, but very high in sparsely vegetated areas, during the day and night. These results suggest that small juveniles are relatively protected under dense vegetation cover due to lower mobility of larger crabs, and provide evidence of temporal segregation of activity windows between juvenile crabs of different sizes, which may be a key mechanism to reduce cannibalism and therefore increase the carrying capacity of nursery habitats. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.