83 resultados para wind power forecast error
Resumo:
Reconciliation can be divided into stages, each stage representing the performance of a mining operation, such as: long-term estimation, short-term estimation, planning, mining and mineral processing. The gold industry includes another stage which is the budget, when the company informs the financial market of its annual production forecast. The division of reconciliation into stages increases the reliability of the annual budget informed by the mining companies, while also detecting and correcting the critical steps responsible for the overall estimation error by the optimization of sampling protocols and equipment. This paper develops and validates a new reconciliation model for the gold industry, which is based on correct sampling practices and the subdivision of reconciliation into stages, aiming for better grade estimates and more efficient control of the mining industry`s processes, from resource estimation to final production.
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This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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It is well known that structures subjected to dynamic loads do not follow the usual similarity laws when the material is strain rate sensitive. As a consequence, it is not possible to use a scaled model to predict the prototype behaviour. In the present study, this problem is overcome by changing the impact velocity so that the model behaves exactly as the prototype. This exact solution is generated thanks to the use of an exponential constitutive law to infer the dynamic flow stress. Furthermore, it is shown that the adopted procedure does not rely on any previous knowledge of the structure response. Three analytical models are used to analyze the performance of the technique. It is shown that perfect similarity is achieved, regardless of the magnitude of the scaling factor. For the class of material used, the solution outlined has long been sought, inasmuch as it allows perfect similarity for strain rate sensitive structures subject to impact loads. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The combined-cycle gas and steam turbine power plant presents three main pieces of equipment: gas turbines, steam turbines and heat recovery steam generator (HRSG). In case of HRSG failure the steam cycle is shut down, reducing the power plant output. Considering that the technology for design, construction and operation of high capacity HRSGs is quite recent its availability should be carefully evaluated in order to foresee the performance of the power plant. This study presents a method for reliability and availability evaluation of HRSGs installed in combined-cycle power plant. The method`s first step consists in the elaboration of the steam generator functional tree and development of failure mode and effects analysis. The next step involves a reliability and availability analysis based on the time to failure and time to repair data recorded during the steam generator operation. The third step, aiming at availability improvement, recommends the fault-tree analysis development to identify components the failure (or combination of failures) of which can cause the HRSG shutdown. Those components maintenance policy can be improved through the use of reliability centered maintenance (RCM) concepts. The method is applied on the analysis of two HRSGs installed in a 500 MW combined-cycle power plant. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The purpose of this article is to present a quantitative analysis of the human failure contribution in the collision and/or grounding of oil tankers, considering the recommendation of the ""Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment"" of the International Maritime Organization. Initially, the employed methodology is presented, emphasizing the use of the technique for human error prediction to reach the desired objective. Later, this methodology is applied to a ship operating on the Brazilian coast and, thereafter, the procedure to isolate the human actions with the greatest potential to reduce the risk of an accident is described. Finally, the management and organizational factors presented in the ""International Safety Management Code"" are associated with these selected actions. Therefore, an operator will be able to decide where to work in order to obtain an effective reduction in the probability of accidents. Even though this study does not present a new methodology, it can be considered as a reference in the human reliability analysis for the maritime industry, which, in spite of having some guides for risk analysis, has few studies related to human reliability effectively applied to the sector.
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The study of non-Newtonian flow in plate heat exchangers (PHEs) is of great importance for the food industry. The objective of this work was to study the pressure drop of pineapple juice in a PHE with 50 degrees chevron plates. Density and flow properties of pineapple juice were determined and correlated with temperature (17.4 <= T <= 85.8 degrees C) and soluble solids content (11.0 <= X(s) <= 52.4 degrees Brix). The Ostwald-de Waele (power law) model described well the rheological behavior. The friction factor for non-isothermal flow of pineapple juice in the PHE was obtained for diagonal and parallel/side flow. Experimental results were well correlated with the generalized Reynolds number (20 <= Re(g) <= 1230) and were compared with predictions from equations from the literature. The mean absolute error for pressure drop prediction was 4% for the diagonal plate and 10% for the parallel plate.
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In this work SiOxNy films are produced and characterized. Series of samples were deposited by the plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) technique at low temperatures from silane (SiH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and helium (He) precursor gaseous mixtures, at different deposition power in order to analyze the effect of this parameter on the films structural properties, on the SiOxNy/Si interface quality and on the SiOxNy effective charge density. In order to compare the film structural properties with the interface (SiOxNy/Si) quality and effective charge density, MOS capacitors were fabricated using these films as dielectric layer. X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy (XANES), at the Si-K edge, was utilized to investigate the structure of the films and the material bonding characteristics were analyzed through Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). The MOS capacitors were characterized by low and high frequency capacitance (C-V) measurements, in order to obtain the interface state density (D-it) and the effective charge density (N-ss). An effective charge density linear reduction for decreasing deposition power was observed, result that is attributed to the smaller amount of ions present in the plasma for low RF power. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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A thermodynamic information system for diagnosis and prognosis of an existing power plant was developed. The system is based on an analytic approach that informs the current thermodynamic condition of all cycle components, as well as the improvement that can be obtained in the cycle performance by the elimination of the discovered anomalies. The effects induced by components anomalies and repairs in other components efficiency, which have proven to be one of the main drawbacks in the diagnosis and prognosis analyses, are taken into consideration owing to the use of performance curves and corrected performance curves together with the thermodynamic data collected from the distributed control system. The approach used to develop the system is explained, the system implementation in a real gas turbine cogeneration combined cycle is described and the results are discussed. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Estimation of Taylor`s power law for species abundance data may be performed by linear regression of the log empirical variances on the log means, but this method suffers from a problem of bias for sparse data. We show that the bias may be reduced by using a bias-corrected Pearson estimating function. Furthermore, we investigate a more general regression model allowing for site-specific covariates. This method may be efficiently implemented using a Newton scoring algorithm, with standard errors calculated from the inverse Godambe information matrix. The method is applied to a set of biomass data for benthic macrofauna from two Danish estuaries. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Capybaras were monitored weekly from 1998 to 2006 by counting individuals in three anthropogenic environments (mixed agricultural fields, forest and open areas) of southeastern Brazil in order to examine the possible influence of environmental variables (temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation and global radiation) on the detectability of this species. There was consistent seasonality in the number of capybaras in the study area, with a specific seasonal pattern in each area. Log-linear models were fitted to the sample counts of adult capybaras separately for each sampled area, with an allowance for monthly effects, time trends and the effects of environmental variables. Log-linear models containing effects for the months of the year and a quartic time trend were highly significant. The effects of environmental variables on sample counts were different in each type of environment. As environmental variables affect capybara detectability, they should be considered in future species survey/monitoring programs.
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Leaf wetness duration (LWD) models based on empirical approaches offer practical advantages over physically based models in agricultural applications, but their spatial portability is questionable because they may be biased to the climatic conditions under which they were developed. In our study, spatial portability of three LWD models with empirical characteristics - a RH threshold model, a decision tree model with wind speed correction, and a fuzzy logic model - was evaluated using weather data collected in Brazil, Canada, Costa Rica, Italy and the USA. The fuzzy logic model was more accurate than the other models in estimating LWD measured by painted leaf wetness sensors. The fraction of correct estimates for the fuzzy logic model was greater (0.87) than for the other models (0.85-0.86) across 28 sites where painted sensors were installed, and the degree of agreement k statistic between the model and painted sensors was greater for the fuzzy logic model (0.71) than that for the other models (0.64-0.66). Values of the k statistic for the fuzzy logic model were also less variable across sites than those of the other models. When model estimates were compared with measurements from unpainted leaf wetness sensors, the fuzzy logic model had less mean absolute error (2.5 h day(-1)) than other models (2.6-2.7 h day(-1)) after the model was calibrated for the unpainted sensors. The results suggest that the fuzzy logic model has greater spatial portability than the other models evaluated and merits further validation in comparison with physical models under a wider range of climate conditions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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This article explores human rights and education based on an intervention experience conducted in three schools located in Sao Paulo City, which had as its main goal a substantial reduction in violence (2004-2005). The guideline was that education should be considered a basic human right, taking into consideration the power and authority relations that exist within this institution. What are the problems that we face, nowadays, to consider education as a human right, in the difficult Brazilian history? Is it possible to think about some kind of democratic authority within the school, when our vision of authority is linked to despotic leaders, or even when there is no space for any authority? How does this discussion associate with the violence in our daily life in school? These are some of the questions included in the debate proposed by this article.
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Purpose: To study the oculometric parameters of hyperopia in children with esotropic amblyopia, comparing amblyopic eyes with fellow eyes. Methods: Thirty-seven patients (5-8 years old) with bilateral hyperopia and esotropic amblyopia underwent a comprehensive ophthalmic examination, including cycloplegic refraction, keratometry and A-scan ultrasonography. Anterior chamber depth, lens thickness, vitreous chamber depth and total axial length were recorded. The refractive power of the crystalline lens was calculated using Bennett`s equations. Paired Student`s t-tests were used to compare ocular biometric measurements between amblyopic eyes and their fellow eyes. The associations of biometric parameters with refractive errors were assessed using Pearson correlation coefficients and linear regression. Multivariable models including axial length, corneal power and lens power were also constructed. Results: Amblyopic eyes were found to have significantly more hyperopic refraction, less corneal power, greater lens power, shorter vitreous chamber depth and shorter axial length, despite similar anterior chamber depth and lens thickness. The strongest correlation with refractive error was observed for the axial length/corneal radius ratio (r(36) = -0.92, p < 0.001 for amblyopic and r(36) = 0.87, p < 0.001 for fellow eyes). Axial length accounted for 39.2% (R(2)) of the refractive error variance in amblyopic eyes and 35.5% in fellow eyes. Adding corneal power to the model increased R(2) to 85.7% and 79.6%, respectively. A statistically significant correlation was found between axial length and corneal power, indicating decreasing corneal power with increasing axial length, and they were similar for amblyopic eyes (r(36) = 0.53,p < 0.001) and fellow eyes (r(36) = -0.57, p < 0.001). A statistically significant correlation was also found between axial length and lens power, indicating decreasing lens power with increasing axial length (r(36) = -0.72, p < 0.001 for amblyopic eyes and r(36) = -0.69, p < 0.001 for fellow eyes). Conclusions: We observed that the correlation among the major oculometric parameters and their individual contribution to hyperopia in esotropic children were similar in amblyopic and non-amblyopic eyes. This finding suggests that the counterbalancing effect of greater corneal and lens power associated with shorter axial length is similar in both eyes of patients with esotropic amblyopia.
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Anemia screening before blood donation requires an accurate, quick, practical, and easy method with minimal discomfort for the donors. The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of two quantitative methods of anemia screening: the HemoCue 201(+) (Aktiebolaget Leo Diagnostics) hemoglobin (Hb) and microhematocrit (micro-Hct) tests. Two blood samples of a single fingerstick were obtained from 969 unselected potential female donors to determine the Hb by HemoCue 201(+) and micro-Hct using HemataSTAT II (Separation Technology, Inc.), in alternating order. From each participant, a venous blood sample was drawn and run in an automatic hematology analyzer (ABX Pentra 60, ABX Diagnostics). Considering results of ABX Pentra 60 as true values, the sensitivity and specificity of HemoCue 201(+) and micro-Hct as screening methods were compared, using a venous Hb level of 12.0 g per dL as cutoff for anemia. The sensitivities of the HemoCue 201(+) and HemataSTAT II in detecting anemia were 56 percent (95% confidence interval [CI], 46.1%-65.5%) and 39.5 percent (95% CI, 30.2%-49.3%), respectively (p < 0.001). Analyzing only candidates with a venous Hb level lower than 11.0 g per dL, the deferral rate was 100 percent by HemoCue 201(+) and 77 percent by HemataSTAT II. The specificities of the methods were 93.5 and 93.2 percent, respectively. The HemoCue 201(+) showed greater discriminating power for detecting anemia in prospective blood donors than the micro-Hct method. Both presented equivalent deferral error rates of nonanemic potential donors. Compared to the micro-Hct, HemoCue 201(+) reduces the risk of anemic female donors giving blood, specially for those with lower Hb levels, without increasing the deferral of nonanemic potential donors.
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Background Meta-analysis is increasingly being employed as a screening procedure in large-scale association studies to select promising variants for follow-up studies. However, standard methods for meta-analysis require the assumption of an underlying genetic model, which is typically unknown a priori. This drawback can introduce model misspecifications, causing power to be suboptimal, or the evaluation of multiple genetic models, which augments the number of false-positive associations, ultimately leading to waste of resources with fruitless replication studies. We used simulated meta-analyses of large genetic association studies to investigate naive strategies of genetic model specification to optimize screenings of genome-wide meta-analysis signals for further replication. Methods Different methods, meta-analytical models and strategies were compared in terms of power and type-I error. Simulations were carried out for a binary trait in a wide range of true genetic models, genome-wide thresholds, minor allele frequencies (MAFs), odds ratios and between-study heterogeneity (tau(2)). Results Among the investigated strategies, a simple Bonferroni-corrected approach that fits both multiplicative and recessive models was found to be optimal in most examined scenarios, reducing the likelihood of false discoveries and enhancing power in scenarios with small MAFs either in the presence or in absence of heterogeneity. Nonetheless, this strategy is sensitive to tau(2) whenever the susceptibility allele is common (MAF epsilon 30%), resulting in an increased number of false-positive associations compared with an analysis that considers only the multiplicative model. Conclusion Invoking a simple Bonferroni adjustment and testing for both multiplicative and recessive models is fast and an optimal strategy in large meta-analysis-based screenings. However, care must be taken when examined variants are common, where specification of a multiplicative model alone may be preferable.