Numerical modeling of ductile crack extension in high pressure pipelines with longitudinal flaws

This study examines the applicability of a micromechanics approach based upon the computational cell methodology incorporating the Gurson-Tvergaard (GT) model and the CTOA criterion to describe ductile crack extension of longitudinal crack-like defects in high pressure pipeline steels. A central focus is to gain additional insight into the effectiveness and limitations of both approaches to describe crack growth response and to predict the burst pressure for the tested cracked pipes. A verification study conducted on burst testing of large-diameter, precracked pipe specimens with varying crack depth to thickness ratio (a/t) shows the potential predictive capability of the cell approach even though both the CT model and the CTOA criterion appear to depend on defect geometry. Overall, the results presented here lend additional support for further developments in the cell methodology as a valid engineering tool for integrity assessments of pipelines with axial defects. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved,

Stable MPC for tracking with maximal domain of attraction

In this work, a stable MPC that maximizes the domain of attraction of the closed-loop system is proposed. The proposed approach is suitable to real applications in the sense that it accounts for the case of output tracking, it is offset free if the output target is reachable and minimizes the offset if some of the constraints are active at steady state. The new approach is based on the definition of a Minkowski functional related to the input and terminal constraints of the stable infinite horizon MPC. It is also shown that the domain of attraction is defined by the system model and the constraints, and it does not depend on the controller tuning parameters. The proposed controller is illustrated with small order examples of the control literature. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phase Equilibrium and Optimization Tools: Application for Enhanced Structured Lipids for Foods

Solid-liquid phase equilibrium modeling of triacylglycerol mixtures is essential for lipids design. Considering the alpha polymorphism and liquid phase as ideal, the Margules 2-suffix excess Gibbs energy model with predictive binary parameter correlations describes the non ideal beta and beta` solid polymorphs. Solving by direct optimization of the Gibbs free energy enables one to predict from a bulk mixture composition the phases composition at a given temperature and thus the SFC curve, the melting profile and the Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) curve that are related to end-user lipid properties. Phase diagram, SFC and DSC curve experimental data are qualitatively and quantitatively well predicted for the binary mixture 1,3-dipalmitoyl-2-oleoyl-sn-glycerol (POP) and 1,2,3-tripalmitoyl-sn-glycerol (PPP), the ternary mixture 1,3-dimyristoyl-2-palmitoyl-sn-glycerol (MPM), 1,2-distearoyl-3-oleoyl-sn-glycerol (SSO) and 1,2,3-trioleoyl-sn-glycerol (OOO), for palm oil and cocoa butter. Then, addition to palm oil of Medium-Long-Medium type structured lipids is evaluated, using caprylic acid as medium chain and long chain fatty acids (EPA-eicosapentaenoic acid, DHA-docosahexaenoic acid, gamma-linolenic-octadecatrienoic acid and AA-arachidonic acid), as sn-2 substitutes. EPA, DHA and AA increase the melting range on both the fusion and crystallization side. gamma-linolenic shifts the melting range upwards. This predictive tool is useful for the pre-screening of lipids matching desired properties set a priori.

Experimental data and modeling of the thermodynamic properties of bread dough at refrigeration and freezing temperatures

Thermodynamic properties of bread dough (fusion enthalpy, apparent specific heat, initial freezing point and unfreezable water) were measured at temperatures from -40 degrees C to 35 degrees C using differential scanning calorimetry. The initial freezing point was also calculated based on the water activity of dough. The apparent specific heat varied as a function of temperature: specific heat in the freezing region varied from (1.7-23.1) J g(-1) degrees C(-1), and was constant at temperatures above freezing (2.7 J g(-1) degrees C(-1)). Unfreezable water content varied from (0.174-0.182) g/g of total product. Values of heat capacity as a function of temperature were correlated using thermodynamic models. A modification for low-moisture foodstuffs (such as bread dough) was successfully applied to the experimental data. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MPC for tracking zone regions

This paper deals with the problem of tracking target sets using a model predictive control (MPC) law. Some MPC applications require a control strategy in which some system outputs are controlled within specified ranges or zones (zone control), while some other variables - possibly including input variables - are steered to fixed target or set-point. In real applications, this problem is often overcome by including and excluding an appropriate penalization for the output errors in the control cost function. In this way, throughout the continuous operation of the process, the control system keeps switching from one controller to another, and even if a stabilizing control law is developed for each of the control configurations, switching among stable controllers not necessarily produces a stable closed loop system. From a theoretical point of view, the control objective of this kind of problem can be seen as a target set (in the output space) instead of a target point, since inside the zones there are no preferences between one point or another. In this work, a stable MPC formulation for constrained linear systems, with several practical properties is developed for this scenario. The concept of distance from a point to a set is exploited to propose an additional cost term, which ensures both, recursive feasibility and local optimality. The performance of the proposed strategy is illustrated by simulation of an ill-conditioned distillation column. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

WATER ACTIVITY OF AQUEOUS SOLUTIONS OF ETHYLENE OXIDE-PROPYLENE OXIDE BLOCK COPOLYMERS AND MALTODEXTRINS

The water activity of aqueous solutions of EO-PO block copolymers of six different molar masses and EO/PO ratios and of maltodextrins of three different molar masses was determined at 298.15 K. The results showed that these aqueous solutions present a negative deviation from Raoult`s law. The Flory-Huggins and UNIFAC excess Gibbs energy models were employed to model the experimental data. While a good agreement was obtained with the Flory-Huggins equation, discrepancies were observed when predicting the experimental behavior with the UNIFAC model. The water activities of ternary systems formed by a synthetic polymer, maltodextrin and water were also measured and used to test the predictive capability of both models.

Enlarging the domain of attraction of stable MPC controllers, maintaining the output performance

This work presents an alternative way to formulate the stable Model Predictive Control (MPC) optimization problem that allows the enlargement of the domain of attraction, while preserving the controller performance. Based on the dual MPC that uses the null local controller, it proposed the inclusion of an appropriate set of slacked terminal constraints into the control problem. As a result, the domain of attraction is unlimited for the stable modes of the system, and the largest possible for the non-stable modes. Although this controller does not achieve local optimality, simulations show that the input and output performances may be comparable to the ones obtained with the dual MPC that uses the LQR as a local controller. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Infinite horizon MPC with non-minimal state space feedback

In the MPC literature, stability is usually assured under the assumption that the state is measured. Since the closed-loop system may be nonlinear because of the constraints, it is not possible to apply the separation principle to prove global stability for the Output feedback case. It is well known that, a nonlinear closed-loop system with the state estimated via an exponentially converging observer combined with a state feedback controller can be unstable even when the controller is stable. One alternative to overcome the state estimation problem is to adopt a non-minimal state space model, in which the states are represented by measured past inputs and outputs [P.C. Young, M.A. Behzadi, C.L. Wang, A. Chotai, Direct digital and adaptative control by input-output, state variable feedback pole assignment, International journal of Control 46 (1987) 1867-1881; C. Wang, P.C. Young, Direct digital control by input-output, state variable feedback: theoretical background, International journal of Control 47 (1988) 97-109]. In this case, no observer is needed since the state variables can be directly measured. However, an important disadvantage of this approach is that the realigned model is not of minimal order, which makes the infinite horizon approach to obtain nominal stability difficult to apply. Here, we propose a method to properly formulate an infinite horizon MPC based on the output-realigned model, which avoids the use of an observer and guarantees the closed loop stability. The simulation results show that, besides providing closed-loop stability for systems with integrating and stable modes, the proposed controller may have a better performance than those MPC controllers that make use of an observer to estimate the current states. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A stable MPC with zone control

Several MPC applications implement a control strategy in which some of the system outputs are controlled within specified ranges or zones, rather than at fixed set points [J.M. Maciejowski, Predictive Control with Constraints, Prentice Hall, New Jersey, 2002]. This means that these outputs will be treated as controlled variables only when the predicted future values lie outside the boundary of their corresponding zones. The zone control is usually implemented by selecting an appropriate weighting matrix for the output error in the control cost function. When an output prediction is inside its zone, the corresponding weight is zeroed, so that the controller ignores this output. When the output prediction lies outside the zone, the error weight is made equal to a specified value and the distance between the output prediction and the boundary of the zone is minimized. The main problem of this approach, as long as stability of the closed loop is concerned, is that each time an output is switched from the status of non-controlled to the status of controlled, or vice versa, a different linear controller is activated. Thus, throughout the continuous operation of the process, the control system keeps switching from one controller to another. Even if a stabilizing control law is developed for each of the control configurations, switching among stable controllers not necessarily produces a stable closed loop system. Here, a stable M PC is developed for the zone control of open-loop stable systems. Focusing on the practical application of the proposed controller, it is assumed that in the control structure of the process system there is an upper optimization layer that defines optimal targets to the system inputs. The performance of the proposed strategy is illustrated by simulation of a subsystem of an industrial FCC system. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Resource use pattern analysis for predicting resource availability in opportunistic grids

This work presents a method for predicting resource availability in opportunistic grids by means of use pattern analysis (UPA), a technique based on non-supervised learning methods. This prediction method is based on the assumption of the existence of several classes of computational resource use patterns, which can be used to predict the resource availability. Trace-driven simulations validate this basic assumptions, which also provide the parameter settings for the accurate learning of resource use patterns. Experiments made with an implementation of the UPA method show the feasibility of its use in the scheduling of grid tasks with very little overhead. The experiments also demonstrate the method`s superiority over other predictive and non-predictive methods. An adaptative prediction method is suggested to deal with the lack of training data at initialization. Further adaptative behaviour is motivated by experiments which show that, in some special environments, reliable resource use patterns may not always be detected. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Closed-loop model re-identification of processes under MPC with zone control

This work deals with a procedure for model re-identification of a process in closed loop with ail already existing commercial MPC. The controller considered here has a two-layer structure where the upper layer performs a target calculation based on a simplified steady-state optimization of the process. Here, it is proposed a methodology where a test signal is introduced in a tuning parameter of the target calculation layer. When the outputs are controlled by zones instead of at fixed set points, the approach allows the continuous operation of the process without an excessive disruption of the operating objectives as process constraints and product specifications remain satisfied during the identification test. The application of the method is illustrated through the simulation of two processes of the oil refining industry. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MULTIVARIATE STATISTICAL METHOD IN OPTIMIZATION OF PROTEIN EXTRACTION FROM SOYBEAN FLOUR WITH DAIRY WHEY

The aim objective of this project was to evaluate the protein extraction of soybean flour in dairy whey, by the multivariate statistical method with 2(3) experiments. Influence of three variables were considered: temperature, pH and percentage of sodium chloride against the process specific variable ( percentage of protein extraction). It was observed that, during the protein extraction against time and temperature, the treatments at 80 degrees C for 2h presented great values of total protein (5.99%). The increasing for the percentage of protein extraction was major according to the heating time. Therefore, the maximum point from the function that represents the protein extraction was analysed by factorial experiment 2(3). By the results, it was noted that all the variables were important to extraction. After the statistical analyses, was observed that the parameters as pH, temperature, and percentage of sodium chloride, did not sufficient for the extraction process, since did not possible to obtain the inflection point from mathematical function, however, by the other hand, the mathematical model was significant, as well as, predictive.

Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Adaptation of an apple sooty blotch and flyspeck warning system for the Upper Midwest United States

A warning system for sooty blotch and flyspeck (SBFS) of apple, developed in the southeastern United States, uses cumulative hours of leaf wetness duration (LWD) to predict the timing of the first appearance of signs. In the Upper Midwest United States, however, this warning system has resulted in sporadic disease control failures. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether the warning system`s algorithm could be modified to provide more reliable assessment of SBFS risk. Hourly LWD, rainfall, relative humidity (RH), and temperature data were collected from orchards in Iowa, North Carolina, and Wisconsin in 2005 and 2006. Timing of the first appearance of SBFS signs was determined by weekly scouting. Preliminary analysis using scatterplots and boxplots suggested that Cumulative hours of RH >= 97% could be a useful predictor of SBFS appearance. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to compare the predictive performance of cumulative LWD and cumulative hours of RH >= 97%. Cumulative hours of RH >= 97% was a more conservative and accurate predictor than cumulative LWD for 15 site years in the Upper Midwest, but not for four site years in North Carolina. Performance of the SBFS warning system in the Upper Midwest and climatically similar regions may be improved if cumulative hours of RH >= 97% were substituted for cumulative LWD to predict the first appearance of SBFS.