A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

KI effects on the reversible electrodeposition of silver on poly(ethylene oxide) for application in electrochromic devices

A new approach to electrochromics, based on the reversible coating-dissolution of an oxide from an inorganic electrochromic electrolyte consisting of a silver-amine complex in a polymer electrolyte (PEO), has proven successful. The reversible electrodeposition of silver onto indium-tin oxide coated glass (ITO) was investigated and the influence of HClO(4) and KI was evaluated. Several characteristics of the electrolyte Ag-PEO make it suitable for use in electrochromic reversible silver electrodeposition devices, such as visible absorption spectrum with an absorbance variation of 60%, an electrochromic efficiency of 5.2 cm(2) C(-1) and an ionic conductivity 4.4 x 10(-4) S cm(-1). The addition of perchloric acid improved the transparency of Ag-PEO, and potassium iodide (KI) was fundamental in setting up the process of reversible silver electrodeposition in the PEO polymeric matrix. A description of the electrochemical processes implied is presented. A number of approaches focusing on the improvement of system performance are tested. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Particle size and concentration of poly(epsilon-caprolactone) and adipate modified starch blend on mineralization in soils with differing textures

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of particle size and concentration of poly(F.-caprolactone) and adipate modified starch blend on mineralization in soils with differing textures, comparing it with polyethylene under the same experimental conditions. Two soil types were used: a Kandiudalfic Eutrudox with a clayey texture and an Arenic Hapludult with a sandy texture. The two different plastic specimens were incorporated in the form of plastic films with three increasing particle sizes and six doses, from 0 to 2.5 mg C g(-1) soil. Each plastic dose was incorporated into 200 g of soil placed in a hermetically closed jar at 28 degrees C, and incubated for a 120-day period to determine CO(2) evolution. Once again it was confirmed that polyethylene is almost non-biodegradable, in contrast to PCL/S, which can be defined as a biodegradable material. Soil texture affected the mineralization kinetics of the plastic specimens, with higher values for the clayey soil. No changes in soil microbial biomass-C or -N were observed by adding polyethylene and PCL/S to the soil. Also, no significant differences were observed on seed emergence and development of rice seedlings (Oryza sativa L.) in plastic modified soil. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhanced fibroblast adhesion and proliferation on electrospun fibers obtained from poly(isosorbide succinate-b-L-lactide) block copolymers

Block copolymers containing isosorbide succinate and L-lactic acid repeating units with different mass compositions were synthesized in two steps: bulk ring-opening copolymerization from L-lactide and poli(isosorbide succinate) (PIS) preoligomer, in the presence of tin(II) 2-ethylhexanoate as catalyst. followed by chain extension in solution by using hexamethylene diisocyanate. Poly(L-lactide) (PLLA) and a chain extension product from PIS were also obtained, for comparison. SEC, (1)H and (13)C NMR, MALDI-TOFMS, WAXD, DSC, TG, and contact angle measurements were used in their characterization. The incorporation of isosorbide succinate into PLLA main backbone had minor effect on the thermal stability and the T(g) of the products. However, it reduced the crystallinity and increased the surface energy in relation to PLLA. Nonwoven mats of the block copolymers and PLLA obtained by electrospinning technique were submitted to fibroblasts 3T3-L1 cell culture. The copolymers presented enhanced cell adhesion and proliferation rate as revealed by MTT assay and SEM images. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Separation and partitioning of Green Fluorescent Protein from Escherichia coli homogenate in poly(ethylene glycol)/sodium-poly(acrylate) aqueous two-phase systems

The partitioning of Green Fluorescent Protein (GFP) in poly(ethylene glycol)/Na-poly(acrylate) aqueous two-phase systems (PEG/NaPA-ATPS) has been investigated. The aqueous two-phase systems are formed by mixing the polymers with a salt and a protein solution. The protein partitioning in the two-phase system was investigated at 25 degrees C. The concentration of the GFP was measured by fluorimetry. It was found that the partitioning of GFP depends on the salt type, pH and concentration of PEG. The data indicates that GFP partitions more strongly to the PEG phase in presence of Na2SO4 relative to NaCl. Furthermore, the GFP partitions more to the PEG phase at higher pH. The partition to the PEG phase is strongly favoured in systems with larger tie-line lengths (i.e. systems with higher polymer concentrations). The molecular weight of PEG is important since the partition coefficient (K) of GFP gradually decreases with increasing PEG size, from K ca. 300-400 for PEG 400 to K equal to 1.19 for PEG 8000. A separation process was developed where GFP was separated from a homogenate in two extraction steps: the GFP is first partitioned to the PEG phase in a PEG 3000/NaPA 8000 system containing 3 wt% Na2SO4, where the K value of GFP was 8. The GFP is then re-extracted to a salt phase formed by mixing the previous top-phase with a Na2SO4 solution. The K-value of GFP in this back-extraction was 0.22. The total recovery based on the start material was 74%. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Protein partitioning in poly(ethylene glycol)/sodium polyacrylate aqueous two-phase systems

The partition of hemoglobin, lysozyme and glucose-6-phospate dehydrogenase (G6PDH) in a novel inexpensive aqueous two-phase system (ATPS) composed by poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) and sodium polyacrylate (NaPA) has been studied. The effect of NaCl and Na2SO4, pH and PEG molecular size on the partitioning has been studied. At high pH (above 9), hemoglobin partitions strongly to the PEG-phase. Although some precipitation of hemoglobin occurs, high recovery values are obtained particularly for lysozyme and G6PDH. The partitioning forces are dominated by the hydrophobic and electrochemical (salt) effects, since the positively charged lysozyme and negatively charged G6PDH partitions to the non-charged PEG and the strongly negatively charged polyacrylate enriched phase, respectively. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

(-)-Hinokinin-loaded poly(d,l-lactide-co-glycolide) microparticles for Chagas disease

The (-)-hinokinin display high activity against Trypanosoma cruzi in vitro and in vivo. (-)-Hinokinin-loaded poly(d,l-lactide-co-glycolide) microparticles were prepared and characterized in order to protect (-)-hinokinin of biological interactions and promote its sustained release for treatment of Chagas disease. The microparticles contain (-)-hinokinin were prepared by the classical method of the emulsion/solvent evaporation. The scanning electron microscopy, light-scattering analyzer were used to study the morphology and particle size, respectively. The encapsulation efficiency was determined, drug release studies were kinetically evaluated, and the trypanocidal effect was evaluated in vivo. (-)-Hinokinin-loaded microparticles obtained showed a mean diameter of 0.862 A mu m with smooth surface and spherical shape. The encapsulation efficiency was 72.46 A +/- 2.92% and developed system maintained drug release with Higuchi kinetics. The preparation method showed to be suitable, since the morphological characteristics, encapsulation efficiency, and in vitro release profile were satisfactory. In vivo assays showed significant reduction of mice parasitaemia after administration of (-)-hinokinin-loaded microparticles. Thus, the developed microparticles seem to be a promising system for sustained release of (-)-hinokinin for treatment of Chagas disease.

Amphotericin B in poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) (PLGA) and dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA) nanoparticles against paracoccidioidomycosis

The present study reports on the preparation and testing of a desoxycholate amphotericin B (D-AMB) sustained delivery system based on poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) (PLGA) and dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA) polymeric blends (Nano-D-AMB) aimed at reducing the number of AMB administrations required to treat mycosis. BALB/c mice were infected with the yeast Paracoccidioides brasiliensis intravenously to mimic the chronic form of paracoccidioidomycosis. At 30 days post-infection, the animals were treated with Nano-D-AMB [6 mg/kg of encapsulated D-AMB, intraperitoneally (ip), interval of 72 h] or D-AMB (2 mg/kg, ip, interval of 24 h). Drug efficacy was investigated by the fungal burden recovery from tissues. Toxicity was assessed by renal and hepatic biochemical parameters, physical appearance of the animals and haematological investigation. The control groups used were non-infected and the infected mice mock treated with PBS. Nano-D-AMB presented results comparable to free D-AMB, with a marked antifungal efficacy. The Nano-D-AMB-treated group presented lower loss of body weight and absence of stress sign (piloerection and hypotrichosis) observed after D-AMB treatment. No renal [blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine] or hepatic (pyruvic and oxalacetic glutamic transaminases) biochemical abnormalities were found. The micronucleus assay showed no significant differences in both the micronucleus frequency and percentage of polychromatic erythrocytes for Nano-D-AMB, indicating the absence of genotoxicity and cytotoxic effects. The D-AMB-coated PLGA-DMSA nanoparticle showed antifungal efficacy, fewer undesirable effects and a favourable extended dosing interval. Nano-D-AMB comprises an AMB formulation able to lessen the number of drug administrations. Further studies would elucidate whether Nano-D-AMB would be useful to treat systemic fungal infections such as paracoccidioidomycosis, candidiasis, aspergillosis and cryptococcosis.

Flex cars and the alcohol price

We build a model that incorporates the effect of the innovative ""flex"" car, an automobile that is able to run with either gasoline or alcohol, on the dynamics of fuel prices in Brazil. Our model shows that differences regarding fuel prices will now depend on the proportions of alcohol, gasoline and flex cars in the total stock. Conversely, the demand for each type of car will also depend on the expected future prices of alcohol and gasoline (in addition to the car prices). The model reflects our findings that energy prices are tied in the long run and that causality runs stronger from gasoline to alcohol. The estimated error correction parameter is stable, implying that the speed of adjustment towards equilibrium remains unchanged. The latter result is probably due to a still small fraction of flex cars in the total stock (approx. 5%), despite the fact that its sales nearly reached 100% in 2006. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Synthesis and characterization of ternary hybrid material based on poly-o-methoxyaniline and poly(ethylene oxide) in mesostructured V(2)O(5)

New hybrid composites based on mesostructured V(2)O(5) containing intercalated poly(ethylene oxide), poly-o-methoxyaniline and poly(ethylene oxide)/poly-o-methoxyaniline were prepared. The results suggest that the polymers were intercalated into the layers of the mesostructured V(2)O(5). Electrochemical studies showed that the presence of both polymers in the mesostructured V(2)O(5) (ternary hybrid) leads to an increase in total charge and stability after several cycles compared with binary hybrid composites. This fact makes this material a potential component as cathode for lithium ion intercalation and further, a promising candidate for applications in batteries.

Solid-phase microextraction using poly(pyrrole) film and liquid chromatography with UV detection for analysis of antidepressants in plasma samples

Poly(pyrrole) (PPY) coating was prepared on a stainless-steel (SS) wire for solid-phase microextraction (SPME) by electrochemical deposition (cyclic voltammetric). The PPY was evaluated by analyzing new-generation antidepressants (mirtazapine, citalopram, paroxetine, duloxetine, fluoxetine, and sertraline) in plasma sample by SPME and liquid chromatography with UV detection (LC-UV). The effect of electrolyte Solution (lithium perchlorate or tetrabutylammonium perchlorate) and the number of cycles (50, 100 or 200) applied during the polymerization process on the SPME performance was evaluated. Important factors in the optimization of SPME efficiency such as extraction time, temperature, pH, influence of plasma proteins on sorption mechanisms, and desorption conditions are discussed. The SPME-PPY/LC method showed to be linear in concentrations ranging from the limit of quantification (LOQ) to 1200 ng mL(-1). The LOQ values range from 16 to 25 ng mL-1. The inter-day precision of the SPME-PPY/LC method presented coefficient of variation (CV) lower than 15%. Based on analytical validation results, the SPME-PPY/LC methodology showed to be adequate for antidepressant analysis, from therapeutic to toxic levels. In order to evaluate the proposed method for clinical use, the SPME-PPY/LC method was applied to the analysis of plasma samples from elderly depressed patients. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved,

Spectroelectrochemistry and investigation of charge transport mechanisms of iron poly(pyridyl) redox polymers

In this work, we describe the characterization of the complex [Fe(tpy-NH2)(2)](PF6)(2) (tpy-NH2 = bis[4`-(3-aminophenyl)-2, 2`:6`,2 ``-terpyridine]. The complex was oxidatively electropolymerized on glassy.-carbon electrodes in CH3CN/0.1 M tetraethylammonium perchlorate (TEAP) to generate polymer films that exhibit reversible oxidative electrochemical behavior in a wide potential range (0.0-1.6 V), as well as high conductivity and stability/durability. In situ spectrocyclic voltammetry of this modified electrode was carried out on a photodiode array spectrophotometer attached to a potentiostat, which provided UV-Vis absorption spectra of the redox species during the potential sweep. We determined charge transport parameters as a function of time and thickness of the modified electrode, and the results showed that poly-[[Fe(tpy-NH2)(2)](2+)](n) can be made to exhibit three regimes of charge transport behavior by manipulation of the film thickness and the experimental time-scale. Morphological characterization of the film was provided by atomic force microscopy. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Niobium to alcohol mol ratio control of the concurring esterification and etherification reactions promoted by NbCl5 and Al2O3 catalysts under microwave irradiation

Alcohols and acids can be switched to produce ethers or esters by varying the alcohol to catalyst mol ratio, in a new etherification and esterification method using NbCl5/Al2O3 catalyst under ""solvent free"" conditions and promoted by MW (microwave) irradiation. A ""two sites"" mechanism for the reaction is proposed, in an attempt to clarify the tendency of the catalyst to be dependent on the alcohol alone during the esterification process. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydroalumination of Thioacetylenes: A Versatile Generation and Reactions of -Aluminate Sulfides Intermediates

Hydroalumination of thioacetylenes using DIBAL-H and lithium di-(isobutyl)-n-(butyl)-aluminate hydride (Zweifel`s reagent), followed by addition of water, furnished exclusively the (Z)- and (E)-vinyl sulfides, respectively. The regio- and stereochemistry of the intermediates generated, (Z)- and (E)-phenylthio vinyl alanates, were determined by capture with iodine, which afforded the corresponding (E)- and (Z)-1-iodo-1-phenylthio-2-organoyl ethenes. Reactions of the (E)-iodo(thio)ketene acetals with n-BuLi followed by addition of hexanal afforded the (Z)-phenylthio allylic alcohol, while the (Z)-iodo(thio)ketene acetals under similar reactions conditions gave the (E)-phenylthio allylic alcohol exclusively.

Prevalence of Alcohol-Related Problems in an Elderly Population and Their Association With Cognitive Impairment and Dementia

Background: Studies investigating the association between alcohol use and cognitive disorders in the elderly population have produced divergent results. Moreover, the role of alcohol in cognitive dysfunction is not clear. The aims of this study were to estimate the prevalence of alcohol-related problems in an elderly population from Brazil and to investigate their association with cognitive and functional impairment (CFI) and dementia. Methods: A community-based cross-sectional study was performed. A sample of 1,145 elderly people was examined in 2 phases. Several instruments were utilized in the first phase: the CAGE questionnaire was used to identify potential cases of alcohol-related problems, and a screening test for dementia was used to estimate CFI. The CAMDEX interview (Cambridge Examination) and DSM-IV (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition) criteria were used for the clinical diagnosis of dementia in the second phase. Results: ""Heavy alcohol use"" (CAGE >= 2) was found in 92 subjects (prevalence: 8.2%). It was associated with gender (males, p < 0.001), low education (only in females, p = 0.002), and low socioeconomic level (p = 0.001, in females; p = 0.002, in males). The Mini Mental State Examination exhibited a nonlinear relationship with alcohol-related problems in females; ""mild-moderate alcohol use"" (CAGE < 2) presented the highest score. A significant association between alcohol-related problems and cognitive dysfunction was found only in females. ""Heavy alcohol use"" was associated with higher CFI and dementia rates compared to ""mild-moderate alcohol use"" (p = 0.003 and p < 0.001, respectively). ""Mild-moderate alcohol use"" had a tendency of association with lower CFI and dementia rates when compared to ""no alcohol use"" (p = 0.063 and 0.050, respectively). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that alcohol use does not have a linear relationship with cognitive decline.