175 resultados para Likelihood principle


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Background: Severe outcomes have been described for both Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax infections. The identification of sensitive and reliable markers of disease severity is fundamental to improving patient care. An intense pro-inflammatory response with oxidative stress and production of reactive oxygen species is present in malaria. Inflammatory cytokines such as tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) and antioxidant agents such as superoxide dismutase-1 (SOD-1) are likely candidate biomarkers for disease severity. Here we tested whether plasma levels of SOD-1 could serve as a biomarker of severe vivax malaria. Methodology/Principal Findings: Plasma samples were obtained from residents of the Brazilian Amazon with a high risk for P. vivax transmission. Malaria diagnosis was made by both microscopy and nested PCR. A total of 219 individuals were enrolled: non-infected volunteers (n = 90) and individuals with vivax malaria: asymptomatic (n = 60), mild (n = 50) and severe infection (n = 19). SOD-1 was directly associated with parasitaemia, plasma creatinine and alanine amino-transaminase levels, while TNF-alpha correlated only with the later enzyme. The predictive power of SOD-1 and TNF-alpha levels was compared. SOD-1 protein levels were more effective at predicting vivax malaria severity than TNF-alpha. For discrimination of mild infection, elevated SOD-1 levels showed greater sensitivity than TNF-alpha (76% vs. 30% respectively; p < 0.0001), with higher specificity (100% vs. 97%; p < 0.0001). In predicting severe vivax malaria, SOD-1 levels exhibited higher sensitivity than TNF-alpha (80% vs. 56%, respectively; p < 0.0001; likelihood ratio: 7.45 vs. 3.14; p, 0.0001). Neither SOD-1 nor TNF-alpha could discriminate P. vivax infections from those caused by P. falciparum. Conclusion: SOD-1 is a powerful predictor of disease severity in individuals with different clinical presentations of vivax malaria.

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Background: Despite governmental and private efforts on providing malaria control, this disease continues to be a major health threat. Thus, innovative strategies are needed to reduce disease burden. The malaria vectors, through the injection of saliva into the host skin, play important role on disease transmission and may influence malaria morbidity. This study describes the humoral immune response against Anopheles (An.) darlingi saliva in volunteers from the Brazilian Amazon and addresses the association between levels of specific antibodies and clinical presentation of Plasmodium (P.) vivax infection. Methods: Adult volunteers from communities in the Rondonia State, Brazil, were screened in order to assess the presence of P. vivax infection by light microscopy and nested PCR. Non-infected volunteers and individuals with symptomatic or symptomless infection were randomly selected and plasma collected. An. darlingi salivary gland sonicates (SGS) were prepared and used to measure anti-saliva antibody levels. Plasma interleukin (IL)-10 and interferon (IFN)-gamma levels were also estimated and correlated to anti-SGS levels. Results: Individuals infected with P. vivax presented higher levels of anti-SGS than non-infected individuals and antibody levels could discriminate infection. Furthermore, anti-saliva antibody measurement was also useful to distinguish asymptomatic infection from non-infection, with a high likelihood ratio. Interestingly, individuals with asymptomatic parasitaemia presented higher titers of anti-SGS and lower IFN-gamma/IL-10 ratio than symptomatic ones. In P. vivax-infected asymptomatic individuals, the IFN-gamma/IL-10 ratio was inversely correlated to anti-SGS titers, although not for while in symptomatic volunteers. Conclusion: The estimation of anti-An. darlingi antibody levels can indicate the probable P. vivax infection status and also could serve as a marker of disease severity in this region of Brazilian Amazon.

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A combined and sequential use of Monte Carlo simulations and quantum mechanical calculations is made to analyze the spectral shift of the lowest pi-pi* transition of phenol in water. The solute polarization is included using electrostatic embedded calculations at the MP2/aug-cc-pVDZ level giving a dipole moment of 2.25 D, corresponding to an increase of 76% compared to the calculated gas-phase value. Using statistically uncorrelated configurations sampled from the MC simulation,first-principle size-extensive calculations are performed to obtain the solvatochromic shift. Analysis is then made of the origin of the blue shift. Results both at the optimized geometry and in room-temperature liquid water show that hydrogen bonds of water with phenol promote a red shift when phenol is the proton-donor and a blue shift when phenol is the proton-acceptor. In the case of the optimized clusters the calculated shifts are in very good agreement with results obtained from mass-selected free jet expansion experiments. In the liquid case the contribution of the solute-solvent hydrogen bonds partially cancels and the total shift obtained is dominated by the contribution of the outer solvent water molecules. Our best result, including both inner and outer water molecules, is 570 +/- 35 cm(-1), in very good agreement with the small experimental shift of 460 cm(-1) for the absorption maximum.

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We investigate the effect of an interaction between dark energy and dark matter upon the dynamics of galaxy clusters. This effect is computed through the Layser-Irvine equation, which describes how an astrophysical system reaches virial equilibrium and was modified to include the dark interactions. Using observational data from almost 100 purportedly relaxed galaxy clusters we put constraints on the strength of the couplings in the dark sector. We compare our results with those from other observations and find that a positive (in the sense of energy flow from dark energy to dark matter) nonvanishing interaction is consistent with the data within several standard deviations.

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We propose a field theory model for dark energy and dark matter in interaction. Comparing the classical solutions of the field equations with the observations of the CMB shift parameter, baryonic acoustic oscillations, lookback time, and the Gold supernovae sample, we observe a possible interaction between dark sectors with energy decay from dark energy into dark matter. The observed interaction provides an alleviation to the coincidence problem.

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We evaluate the coincidence spectra in the nonmesonic weak decay (NMWD) Lambda N -> nN of Lambda hypernuclei (4)(Lambda)He, (5)(Lambda)He, (12)(Lambda)C, (16)(Lambda)O, and (28)(Lambda)Si, as a function of the sum of kinetic energies E(nN)=E(n)+E(N) for N=n,p. The strangeness-changing transition potential is described by the one-meson-exchange model, with commonly used parametrization. Two versions of the independent-particle shell model (IPSM) are employed to account for the nuclear structure of the final residual nuclei. They are as follows: (a) IPSM-a, where no correlation, except for the Pauli principle, is taken into account and (b) IPSM-b, where the highly excited hole states are considered to be quasistationary and are described by Breit-Wigner distributions, whose widths are estimated from the experimental data. All np and nn spectra exhibit a series of peaks in the energy interval 110 MeV < E(nN)< 170 MeV, one for each occupied shell-model state. Within the IPSM-a, and because of the recoil effect, each peak covers an energy interval proportional to A(-1) , going from congruent to 4 MeV for (28)(Lambda)Si to congruent to 40 MeV for (4)(Lambda)He. Such a description could be pretty fair for the light (4)(Lambda)He and (5)(Lambda)He hypernuclei. For the remaining, heavier, hypernuclei it is very important, however, to consider as well the spreading in strength of the deep-hole states and bring into play the IPSM-b approach. Notwithstanding the nuclear model that is employed the results depend only very weakly on the details of the dynamics involved in the decay process proper. We propose that the IPSM is the appropriate lowest-order approximation for the theoretical calculations of the of kinetic energy sum spectra in the NMWD. It is in comparison to this picture that one should appraise the effects of the final-state interactions and of the two-nucleon-induced decay mode.

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In a 4D chiral Thirring model we analyze the possibility that radiative corrections may produce spontaneous breaking of Lorentz and CPT symmetry. By studying the effective potential, we verified that the chiral current (psi) over bar gamma(mu)gamma(5)psi may assume a nonzero vacuum expectation value which triggers Lorentz and CPT violations. Furthermore, by making fluctuations on the minimum of the potential we dynamically induce a bumblebee-like model containing a Chem-Simons term.

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This work reports on the crystallization of amorphous silicon (a-Si) films doped with 1 at. % of nickel. The films, with thicknesses ranging from 10 to 3000 nm, were deposited using the cosputtering method onto crystalline quartz substrates. In order to investigate the crystallization mechanism in detail, a series of undoped a-Si films prepared under the same deposition conditions were also studied. After deposition, all a-Si films were submitted to isochronal thermal annealing treatments up to 1000 degrees C and analyzed by Raman scattering spectroscopy. Based on the present experimental results, it is possible to state that (a) when compared to the undoped a-Si films, those containing 1 at. % of Ni crystallize at temperatures similar to 100 degrees C lower, and that (b) the film thickness influences the temperature of crystallization that, in principle, tends to be lower in films thinner than 1000 nm. The possible reasons associated to these experimental observations are presented and discussed in view of some experimental and thermodynamic aspects involved in the formation of ordered Si-Si bonds and in the development of Ni-silicide phases. (c) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

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We study the free-fall of a quantum particle in the context of noncommutative quantum mechanics (NCQM). Assuming noncommutativity of the canonical type between the coordinates of a two-dimensional configuration space, we consider a neutral particle trapped in a gravitational well and exactly solve the energy eigenvalue problem. By resorting to experimental data from the GRANIT experiment, in which the first energy levels of freely falling quantum ultracold neutrons were determined, we impose an upper-bound on the noncommutativity parameter. We also investigate the time of flight of a quantum particle moving in a uniform gravitational field in NCQM. This is related to the weak equivalence principle. As we consider stationary, energy eigenstates, i.e., delocalized states, the time of flight must be measured by a quantum clock, suitably coupled to the particle. By considering the clock as a small perturbation, we solve the (stationary) scattering problem associated and show that the time of flight is equal to the classical result, when the measurement is made far from the turning point. This result is interpreted as an extension of the equivalence principle to the realm of NCQM. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3466812]

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This article presents maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) and log-likelihood ratio (LLR) tests for the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of Gaussian random symmetric matrices of arbitrary dimension, where the observations are independent repeated samples from one or two populations. These inference problems are relevant in the analysis of diffusion tensor imaging data and polarized cosmic background radiation data, where the observations are, respectively, 3 x 3 and 2 x 2 symmetric positive definite matrices. The parameter sets involved in the inference problems for eigenvalues and eigenvectors are subsets of Euclidean space that are either affine subspaces, embedded submanifolds that are invariant under orthogonal transformations or polyhedral convex cones. We show that for a class of sets that includes the ones considered in this paper, the MLEs of the mean parameter do not depend on the covariance parameters if and only if the covariance structure is orthogonally invariant. Closed-form expressions for the MLEs and the associated LLRs are derived for this covariance structure.

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Context tree models have been introduced by Rissanen in [25] as a parsimonious generalization of Markov models. Since then, they have been widely used in applied probability and statistics. The present paper investigates non-asymptotic properties of two popular procedures of context tree estimation: Rissanen's algorithm Context and penalized maximum likelihood. First showing how they are related, we prove finite horizon bounds for the probability of over- and under-estimation. Concerning overestimation, no boundedness or loss-of-memory conditions are required: the proof relies on new deviation inequalities for empirical probabilities of independent interest. The under-estimation properties rely on classical hypotheses for processes of infinite memory. These results improve on and generalize the bounds obtained in Duarte et al. (2006) [12], Galves et al. (2008) [18], Galves and Leonardi (2008) [17], Leonardi (2010) [22], refining asymptotic results of Buhlmann and Wyner (1999) [4] and Csiszar and Talata (2006) [9]. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Efficient automatic protein classification is of central importance in genomic annotation. As an independent way to check the reliability of the classification, we propose a statistical approach to test if two sets of protein domain sequences coming from two families of the Pfam database are significantly different. We model protein sequences as realizations of Variable Length Markov Chains (VLMC) and we use the context trees as a signature of each protein family. Our approach is based on a Kolmogorov-Smirnov-type goodness-of-fit test proposed by Balding et at. [Limit theorems for sequences of random trees (2008), DOI: 10.1007/s11749-008-0092-z]. The test statistic is a supremum over the space of trees of a function of the two samples; its computation grows, in principle, exponentially fast with the maximal number of nodes of the potential trees. We show how to transform this problem into a max-flow over a related graph which can be solved using a Ford-Fulkerson algorithm in polynomial time on that number. We apply the test to 10 randomly chosen protein domain families from the seed of Pfam-A database (high quality, manually curated families). The test shows that the distributions of context trees coming from different families are significantly different. We emphasize that this is a novel mathematical approach to validate the automatic clustering of sequences in any context. We also study the performance of the test via simulations on Galton-Watson related processes.

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The generator-coordinate method is a flexible and powerful reformulation of the variational principle. Here we show that by introducing a generator coordinate in the Kohn-Sham equation of density-functional theory, excitation energies can be obtained from ground-state density functionals. As a viability test, the method is applied to ground-state energies and various types of excited-state energies of atoms and ions from the He and the Li isoelectronic series. Results are compared to a variety of alternative DFT-based approaches to excited states, in particular time-dependent density-functional theory with exact and approximate potentials.

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Here, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling how social agents change their minds in the case of continuous opinion models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable, we will see that interesting dynamics emerge when an agent assigns a likelihood to that value that is a mixture of a Gaussian and a uniform distribution. This represents the idea that the other agent might have no idea about what is being talked about. The effect of updating only the first moments of the distribution will be studied, and we will see that this generates results similar to those of the bounded confidence models. On also updating the second moment, several different opinions always survive in the long run, as agents become more stubborn with time. However, depending on the probability of error and initial uncertainty, those opinions might be clustered around a central value.

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METHODS: A total of 4210 students attending public high schools in Pernambuco (northeast of Brazil) were selected using random 2-stage cluster sampling. Data were collected by using the Global School-based Student Health Survey. The independent variable was the frequency of participation in PE classes, whereas physical activity, television viewing, smoking, and alcohol, fruit, vegetables and soda consumption were dependent variables. Logistic regressions were carried out to perform crude and adjusted analysis of the association between enrollment in PE classes and health-related behaviors. RESULTS: Sixty-five percent of students do not take part in PE classes, with a significantly higher proportion among females (67.8%). It was observed that enrollment in PE classes was positively associated with physical activity, TV viewing, and fruit consumption, but was negatively associated with soda drinking. The likelihood of reporting being active and eating fruit on a daily basis was 27% and 45% higher, respectively, among those who participate in at least 2 classes per week in comparison with those who do not. Students who participate in PE classes had 28-30% higher likelihood of reporting lower TV viewing during week days. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that higher levels of enrollment in PE classes could play a role in the promotion of health-related behaviors among high school students.