Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Dosage-dependent shift in the spore community of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi following application of tannery sludge

The controlled disposal of tannery sludge in agricultural soils is a viable alternative for recycling such waste; however, the impact of this practice on the arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) communities is not well understood. We studied the effects of low-chromium tannery sludge amendment in soils on AMF spore density, species richness and diversity, and root colonization levels. Sludge was applied at four doses to an agricultural field in Rolandia, Parana state, Brazil. The sludge was left undisturbed on the soil surface and then the area was harrowed and planted with corn. The soil was sampled at four intervals and corn roots once within a year (2007/2008). AMF spore density was low (1 to 49 spores per 50 cm(3) of soil) and decreased as doses of tannery sludge increased. AMF root colonization was high (64%) and unaffected by tannery sludge. Eighteen AMF species belonging to six genera (Acaulospora, Glomus, Gigaspora, Scutellospora, Paraglomus, and Ambispora) were recorded. At the sludge doses of 9.0 and 22.6 Mg ha(-1), we observed a decrease in AMF species richness and diversity, and changes in their relative frequencies. Hierarchical grouping analysis showed that adding tannery waste to the soil altered AMF spore community in relation to the control, modifying the mycorrhizal status of soil and selectively favoring the sporulation of certain species.

Effect of water renewal on dominance hierarchy of juvenile Nile tilapia

Nile tilapia social position (Oreochromis niloticus) can be mediated by multiple channels, including chemical communication. Absence of chemical cues in the environment prevents hierarchical settlement among pairs, and enhances time spent in confrontations. The aim of this study was to test the effect of continuously renewed water flow on the establishment of hierarchical dominance in Nile tilapia juveniles. In this condition, a high frequency of attacks and disruption on hierarchical stability were expected because chemical cues for hierarchy maintenance could be washed out. After 3 days in isolation, the fish were paired by standard size but not by sex, and submitted to two conditions: continuously renewed water flow (RENEWED, n = 7) and non-renewed water flow (NONRENEWED n = 8). The paired fish were placed in an aquarium (40 cm x 30 cm x 40 cm) for 3 h; four 10-min sessions were video-recorded: the first, immediately after the fish were paired and the others 1, 2, and 3 h after pairing. Hierarchy was identified by a dominance index (DI = given attacks/received + given attacks) For each fish. The hierarchical stability was achieved by analyzing the difference between dominant DI and subordinate DI (DI-D). Hierarchy was established in both groups after second session because the DI was significantly higher for one fish of the pair. The frequency of attacks of the dominant fish in RENEWED and NONRENEWED conditions was similar in all observation sessions. The attack frequency by subordinate fish was also similar during the first three sessions (2-h pairing). However, the frequency of attacks by subordinate fish in the RENEWED condition was higher than in the NONRENEWED situation at the fourth observation session (means +/- S.E.: RENEWED = 2.83 +/- 0.94 x 10 min(-1) and NONRENEWED = 0.25 +/- 0.16 x 10 min(-1); Mann-Whitney, p = 0.04). At this point, a significant reduction of the DI-D was observed (means +/- S.E.: RENEWED = 0.70 +/- 0.11 and NONRENEWED = 1,00 +/- 0.002; Mann-Whitney, p = 0.04). The changes in DI-D were related to more frequent attacks by the subordinated fish in renewed water flow. According to our results, the unsteady agonistic interaction under renewed water flow leads to social instability. Thus, continuous water renewing can wash out relevant chemical substances and therefore disturb the dominance recognition by subordinate fish. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the association between phenolic compounds and the antioxidant activity of Brazilian red wines using chemometrics

The objective of this study was to evaluate the association among chemical parameters, the commercial value, and the antioxidant activity of Brazilian red wines using chemometric techniques. Twenty-nine samples from five different varieties were assessed. Samples were separated into three groups using hierarchical cluster analysis: cluster 1 presented the highest antioxidant activity towards DPPH (68.51% of inhibition) and ORAC (30,918.64 mu mol Trolox Equivalents/L), followed by cluster 3 (DPPH = 59.36% of inhibition: ORAC = 25,255.02 mu mol Trolox Equivalents/L) and then cluster 2 (DPPH = 46.67% of inhibition; ORAC = 19,395.74 gmol Trolox Equivalents/L). Although the correlation between the commercial value and the antioxidant activity on DPPH and ORAC was not statistically significant (P = 0.13 and P = 0.06, respectively), cluster 1 grouped the samples with higher commercial values. Cluster analysis applied to the variables suggested that non-anthocyanin flavonoids were the main phenolic class exerting antioxidant activity on Brazilian red wines. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Novel benzofuroxan derivatives against multidrug-resistant Staphylococcus aureus strains: Design using Topliss` decision tree, synthesis and biological assay

The aim of this study was the design of a set of benzofuroxan derivatives as antimicrobial agents exploring the physicochemical properties of the related substituents. Topliss` decision tree approach was applied to select the substituent groups. Hierarchical cluster analysis was also performed to emphasize natural clusters and patterns. The compounds were obtained using two synthetic approaches for reducing the synthetic steps as well as improving the yield. The minimal inhibitory concentration method was employed to evaluate the activity against multidrug-resistant Staphylococcus aureus strains. The most active compound was 4-nitro-3-(trifluoromethyl)[N`-(benzofuroxan-5-yl) methylene] benzhydrazide (MIC range 12.7-11.4 mu g/mL), pointing out that the antimicrobial activity was indeed influenced by the hydrophobic and electron-withdrawing property of the substituent groups 3-CF(3) and 4-NO(2), respectively. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monitoring the authenticity of Brazilian UHT milk: A chemometric approach

In this work, chemometric methods are reported as potential tools for monitoring the authenticity of Brazilian ultra-high temperature (UHT) milk processed in industrial plants located in different regions of the country. A total of 100 samples were submitted to the qualitative analysis of adulterants such as starch, chlorine, formal. hydrogen peroxide and urine. Except for starch, all the samples reported, at least, the presence of one adulterant. The use of chemometric methodologies such as the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) enabled the verification of the occurrence of certain adulterations in specific regions. The proposed multivariate approaches may allow the sanitary agency authorities to optimise materials, human and financial resources, as they associate the occurrence of adulterations to the geographical location of the industrial plants. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A chemometric study on the analgesic activity of cannabinoid compounds using SDA, KNN and SIMCA methods

The supervised pattern recognition methods K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), stepwise discriminant analysis (SDA), and soft independent modelling of class analogy (SIMCA) were employed in this work with the aim to investigate the relationship between the molecular structure of 27 cannabinoid compounds and their analgesic activity. Previous analyses using two unsupervised pattern recognition methods (PCA-principal component analysis and HCA-hierarchical cluster analysis) were performed and five descriptors were selected as the most relevants for the analgesic activity of the compounds studied: R (3) (charge density on substituent at position C(3)), Q (1) (charge on atom C(1)), A (surface area), log P (logarithm of the partition coefficient) and MR (molecular refractivity). The supervised pattern recognition methods (SDA, KNN, and SIMCA) were employed in order to construct a reliable model that can be able to predict the analgesic activity of new cannabinoid compounds and to validate our previous study. The results obtained using the SDA, KNN, and SIMCA methods agree perfectly with our previous model. Comparing the SDA, KNN, and SIMCA results with the PCA and HCA ones we could notice that all multivariate statistical methods classified the cannabinoid compounds studied in three groups exactly in the same way: active, moderately active, and inactive.

Ethical preferences for influencing superiors: A 41-society study

With a 41-society sample of 9990 managers and professionals, we used hierarchical linear modeling to investigate the impact of both macro-level and micro-level predictors on subordinate influence ethics. While we found that both macro-level and micro-level predictors contributed to the model definition, we also found global agreement for a subordinate influence ethics hierarchy. Thus our findings provide evidence that developing a global model of subordinate ethics is possible, and should be based upon multiple criteria and multilevel variables. Journal of International Business Studies (2009) 40, 1022-1045. doi:10.1057/jibs.2008.109

The look of royalty: visual and odour signals of reproductive status in a paper wasp

Reproductive conflicts within animal societies occur when all females can potentially reproduce. In social insects, these conflicts are regulated largely by behaviour and chemical signalling. There is evidence that presence of signals, which provide direct information about the quality of the reproductive females would increase the fitness of all parties. In this study, we present an association between visual and chemical signals in the paper wasp Polistes satan. Our results showed that in nest-founding phase colonies, variation of visual signals is linked to relative fertility, while chemical signals are related to dominance status. In addition, experiments revealed that higher hierarchical positions were occupied by subordinates with distinct proportions of cuticular hydrocarbons and distinct visual marks. Therefore, these wasps present cues that convey reliable information of their reproductive status.

Gene expression profile of residual breast cancer after doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide neoadjuvant chemotherapy

In breast cancer patients, primary chemotherapy is associated with the same survival benefits as adjuvant chemotherapy. Residual tumors represent a clinical challenge, Lis they may be resistant to additional cycles of the same drugs. Our aim was to identify differential transcripts expressed in residual tumors, after neoadjuvant chemotherapy, that might be related with tumor resistance. Hence, 16 patients with paired tumor samples, collected before and after treatment (4 cycles doxorubicin/cyclophosphamide, AC) had their gene expression evaluated on cDNA microarray slides containing 4,608 genes. Three hundred and eighty-nine genes were differentially expressed (paired Student`s t-test, pFDR<0.01) between pre- and post-chemotherapy samples and among the regulated functions were the JNK cascade and cell death. Unsupervised hierarchical clustering identified one branch comprising exclusively, eight pre-chemotherapy samples and another branch, including the former correspondent eight post-chemotherapy samples and other 16 paired pre/post-chemotherapy samples. No differences in clinical and tumor parameters could explain this clustering. Another group of I I patients with paired samples had expression of selected genes determined by real-time RT-PCR and CTGF and DUSP1 were confirmed more expressed in post- as compared to pre-chemotherapy samples. After neoadjuvant chemotherapy some residual samples may retain their molecular signature while others present significant changes in their gene expression, probably induced by the treatment. CTGF and DUSP1 overexpression in residual samples may be a reflection of resistance to further administration of AC regimen.

Hypoactive sexual desire disorder in a population-based study of Brazilian women: associated factors classified according to their importance

Objective: The etiology of hypoactive sexual desire disorder (HSDD) is known to be multifactorial, involving biological, psychosexual, and context-related factors. The objective of the present study was to analyze the factors associated with female HSDD and to stratify these factors according to their importance. Methods: This was a population-based, hierarchical study conducted in Brazil, based on data from previous research on the Brazilian Sexual Life Study, conducted between November 2002 and February 2003 in various Brazilian cities. The primary study consisted of a self-administered and anonymous questionnaire, addressing sociodemographic parameters, general health, life habits, behavior, and complaints related to sexual function. The association between HSDD and various other factors was assessed. The data were evaluated by hierarchical multiple regression analysis. Results: The prevalence of HSDD in this sample was 9.5%. Associations were found with cardiovascular disease, breast cancer, posttraumatic stress, poorer education level, being older, being married, a lack of information on sexuality in childhood/adolescence, and a limited sexual repertoire. Women who consumed moderate amounts of alcohol were found to be less likely to have HSDD. Conclusions: Analysis of the associated factors classified in order of importance and analysis of the characteristics of the sexual relationships provide additional information to currently available data on the traditional concepts of HSDD.

Interferon and Alternative Activation of Monocyte/Macrophages in Systemic Sclerosis-Associated Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

Objective. To explore the relationship between biomarkers of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), interferon (IFN)-regulated gene expression, and the alternative activation pathway in systemic sclerosis (SSc). Methods. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were purified from healthy controls, patients with idiopathic PAH, and SSc patients (classified as having diffuse cutaneous SSc, limited cutaneous SSc [lcSSc] without PAH, and lcSSc with PAH). IFN-regulated and ""PAH biomarker"" genes were compared after supervised hierarchical clustering. Messenger RNA levels of selected IFN-regulated genes (Siglec1 and MX1), biomarker genes (IL13RA1, CCR1, and JAK2), and the alternative activation marker gene (MRC1) were analyzed on PBMCs and on CD14- and CD14+ cell populations. Interleukin-13 (IL-13) and IL-4 concentrations were measured in plasma by immunoassay. CD14, MRC1, and IL13RA1 surface expression was analyzed by flow cytometry. Results. Increased PBMC expression of both IFN-regulated and biomarker genes distinguished SSc patients from healthy controls. Expression of genes in the biomarker cluster, but not in the IFN-regulated cluster, distinguished lcSSc with PAH from lcSSc without PAH. The genes CCR1 (P < 0.001) and JAK2 (P < 0.001) were expressed more highly in lcSSc patients with PAH compared with controls and mainly by CD14+ cells. MRC1 expression was increased exclusively in lcSSc patients with PAH (P < 0.001) and correlated strongly with pulmonary artery pressure (r = 0.52, P = 0.03) and higher mortality (P = 0.02). MRC1 expression was higher in CD14+ cells and was greatly increased by stimulation with IL-13. IL-13 concentrations in plasma were most highly increased in lcSSc patients with PAH (P < 0.001). Conclusion. IFN-regulated and biomarker genes represent distinct, although related, clusters in lcSSc patients with PAH. MRC1, a marker for the effect of IL-13 on alternative monocyte/macrophage activation, is associated with this severe complication and is related to mortality.

Evidence for a network transcriptional control of promiscuous gene expression in medullary thymic epithelial cells

The expression of peripheral tissue antigens (PTAs) in the thymus by medullary thymic epithelial cells (mTECs) is essential for the central self-tolerance in the generation of the T cell repertoire. Due to heterogeneity of autoantigen representation, this phenomenon has been termed promiscuous gene expression (PGE), in which the autoimmune regulator (Aire) gene plays a key role as a transcription factor in part of these genes. Here we used a microarray strategy to access PGE in cultured murine CD80(+) 3.10 mTEC line. Hierarchical clustering of the data allowed observation that PTA genes were differentially expressed being possible to found their respective induced or repressed mRNAs. To further investigate the control of PGE, we tested the hypothesis that genes involved in this phenomenon might also be modulated by transcriptional network. We then reconstructed such network based on the microarray expression data, featuring the guanylate cyclase 2d (Gucy2d) gene as a main node. In such condition, we established 167 positive and negative interactions with downstream PTA genes. Silencing Aire by RNA interference, Gucy2d while down regulated established a larger number (355) of interactions with PTA genes. T- and G-boxes corresponding to AIRE protein binding sites located upstream to ATG codon of Gucy2d supports this effect. These findings provide evidence that Aire plays a role in association with Gucy2d, which is connected to Several PTA genes and establishes a cascade-like transcriptional control of promiscuous gene expression in mTEC cells. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of different nonlinear functions to describe Nelore cattle growth

This work aims to compare different nonlinear functions for describing the growth curves of Nelore females. The growth curve parameters, their (co) variance components, and environmental and genetic effects were estimated jointly through a Bayesian hierarchical model. In the first stage of the hierarchy, 4 nonlinear functions were compared: Brody, Von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, and logistic. The analyses were carried out using 3 different data sets to check goodness of fit while having animals with few records. Three different assumptions about SD of fitting errors were considered: constancy throughout the trajectory, linear increasing until 3 yr of age and constancy thereafter, and variation following the nonlinear function applied in the first stage of the hierarchy. Comparisons of the overall goodness of fit were based on Akaike information criterion, the Bayesian information criterion, and the deviance information criterion. Goodness of fit at different points of the growth curve was compared applying the Gelfand`s check function. The posterior means of adult BW ranged from 531.78 to 586.89 kg. Greater estimates of adult BW were observed when the fitting error variance was considered constant along the trajectory. The models were not suitable to describe the SD of fitting errors at the beginning of the growth curve. All functions provided less accurate predictions at the beginning of growth, and predictions were more accurate after 48 mo of age. The prediction of adult BW using nonlinear functions can be accurate when growth curve parameters and their (co) variance components are estimated jointly. The hierarchical model used in the present study can be applied to the prediction of mature BW in herds in which a portion of the animals are culled before adult age. Gompertz, Von Bertalanffy, and Brody functions were adequate to establish mean growth patterns and to predict the adult BW of Nelore females. The Brody model was more accurate in predicting the birth weight of these animals and presented the best overall goodness of fit.