The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

NEAR INFRARED SPECTROSCOPY FOR ESTIMATING SUGARCANE BAGASSE CONTENT IN MEDIUM DENSITY FIBERBOARD

Medium density fiberboard (MDF) is an engineered wood product formed by breaking down selected lignin-cellulosic material residuals into fibers, combining it with wax and a resin binder, and then forming panels by applying high temperature and pressure. Because the raw material in the industrial process is ever-changing, the panel industry requires methods for monitoring the composition of their products. The aim of this study was to estimate the ratio of sugarcane (SC) bagasse to Eucalyptus wood in MDF panels using near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy. Principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least square (PLS) regressions were performed. MDF panels having different bagasse contents were easily distinguished from each other by the PCA of their NIR spectra with clearly different patterns of response. The PLS-R models for SC content of these MDF samples presented a strong coefficient of determination (0.96) between the NIR-predicted and Lab-determined values and a low standard error of prediction (similar to 1.5%) in the cross-validations. A key role of resins (adhesives), cellulose, and lignin for such PLS-R calibrations was shown. PLS-DA model correctly classified ninety-four percent of MDF samples by cross-validations and ninety-eight percent of the panels by independent test set. These NIR-based models can be useful to quickly estimate sugarcane bagasse vs. Eucalyptus wood content ratio in unknown MDF samples and to verify the quality of these engineered wood products in an online process.

Kinematic parameters and membership probabilities of open clusters in the Bordeaux PM2000 catalogue

Aims. We derive lists of proper-motions and kinematic membership probabilities for 49 open clusters and possible open clusters in the zone of the Bordeaux PM2000 proper motion catalogue (+ 11 degrees <= delta <= + 18 degrees). We test different parametrisations of the proper motion and position distribution functions and select the most successful one. In the light of those results, we analyse some objects individually. Methods. We differenciate between cluster and field member stars, and assign membership probabilities, by applying a new and fully automated method based on both parametrisations of the proper motion and position distribution functions, and genetic algorithm optimization heuristics associated with a derivative-based hill climbing algorithm for the likelihood optimization. Results. We present a catalogue comprising kinematic parameters and associated membership probability lists for 49 open clusters and possible open clusters in the Bordeaux PM2000 catalogue region. We note that this is the first determination of proper motions for five open clusters. We confirm the non-existence of two kinematic populations in the region of 15 previously suspected non-existent objects.

The B0.5 IVe CoRoT target HD 49330 II. Spectroscopic ground-based observations

Context. We present spectroscopic ground-based observations of the early Be star HD 49330 obtained simultaneously with the CoRoT-LRA1 run just before the burst observed in the CoRoT data. Aims. Ground-based spectroscopic observations of the early Be star HD 49330 obtained during the precursor phase and just before the start of an outburst allow us to disantangle stellar and circumstellar contributions and identify modes of stellar pulsations in this rapidly rotating star. Methods. Time series analysis (TSA) is performed on photospheric line profiles of He I and Si III by means of the least squares method. Results. We find two main frequencies f1 = 11.86 c d(-1) and f2 = 16.89 c d(-1) which can be associated with high order p-mode pulsations. We also detect a frequency f3 = 1.51 c d(-1) which can be associated with a low order g-mode. Moreover we show that the stellar line profile variability changed over the spectroscopic run. These results are in agreement with the results of the CoRoT data analysis, as shown in Huat et al. (2009). Conclusions. Our study of mid-and short-term spectroscopic variability allows the identification of p-and g-modes in HD 49330. It also allows us to display changes in the line profile variability before the start of an outburst. This brings new constraints for the seimic modelling of this star.

Pulsations in the late-type Be star HD 50 209 detected by CoRoT

Context. The presence of pulsations in late-type Be stars is still a matter of controversy. It constitutes an important issue to establish the relationship between non-radial pulsations and the mass-loss mechanism in Be stars. Aims. To contribute to this discussion, we analyse the photometric time series of the B8IVe star HD 50 209 observed by the CoRoT mission in the seismology field. Methods. We use standard Fourier techniques and linear and non-linear least squares fitting methods to analyse the CoRoT light curve. In addition, we applied detailed modelling of high-resolution spectra to obtain the fundamental physical parameters of the star. Results. We have found four frequencies which correspond to gravity modes with azimuthal order m = 0,-1,-2,-3 with the same pulsational frequency in the co-rotating frame. We also found a rotational period with a frequency of 0.679 cd(-1) (7.754 mu Hz). Conclusions. HD 50 209 is a pulsating Be star as expected from its position in the HR diagram, close to the SPB instability strip.

Avaliação de modelos geoidais gravimétricos determinados com funções covariâncias planas e esféricas (Estudo de Caso: Estado de São Paulo e adjacências)

The least squares collocation is a mathematical technique which is used in Geodesy for representation of the Earth's anomalous gravity field from heterogeneous data in type and precision. The use of this technique in the representation of the gravity field requires the statistical characteristics of data through covariance function. The covariances reflect the behavior of the gravity field, in magnitude and roughness. From the statistical point of view, the covariance function represents the statistical dependence among quantities of the gravity field at distinct points or, in other words, shows the tendency to have the same magnitude and the same sign. The determination of the covariance functions is necessary either to describe the behavior of the gravity field or to evaluate its functionals. This paper aims at presenting the results of a study on the plane and spherical covariance functions in determining gravimetric geoid models.

2-Benzoylpyridine semicarbazone

The title compound, C13H12N4O, crystallizes with two independent molecules in the asymmetric unit. The compound crystallizes as the ZE isomer, where Z and E refer to the configuration around the C=N and N-C bonds, respectively, with an N-H center dot center dot center dot N-py (py is pyridine) intramolecular hydrogen bond. The dihedral angles between the least-squares planes through the semicarbazone group and the pyridyl ring are 22.70 (9) and 27.26 (9)degrees for the two molecules. There are intermolecular N-H center dot center dot center dot O hydrogen bonds.

Design of 1D and 2D molecule-based magnets with the ligand 4,5-dimethyl-1,2-phenylenebis(oxamato)

Three new bimetallic oxamato-based magnets with the proligand 4,5-dimethyl-1,2-phenylenebis-(oxamato) (dmopba) were synthesized using water or dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) as solvents. Single crystal X-ray diffraction provided structures for two of them: [MnCu(dmopba)(H(2)O)(3)]n center dot 4nH(2)O (1) and [MnCu(dmopba)(DMSO)(3)](n center dot)nDMSO (2). The crystalline structures for both 1 and 2 consist of linearly ordered oxamato-bridged Mn(II)Cu(II) bimetallic chains. The magnetic characterization revealed a typical behaviour of ferrimagnetic chains for 1 and 2. Least-squares fits of the experimental magnetic data performed in the 300-20 K temperature range led to J(MnCu) = -27.9 cm(-1), g(Cu) = 2.09 and g(Mn) = 1.98 for 1 and J(MnCu) = -30.5 cm(-1), g(Cu) = 2.09 and g(Mn) = 2.02 for 2 (H = -J(MnCu)Sigma S(Mn, i)(S(Cu, i) + S(Cu, i-1))). The two-dimensional ferrimagnetic system [Me(4)N](2n){Co(2)[Cu(dmopba)](3)}center dot 4nDMSO center dot nH(2)O (3) was prepared by reaction of Co(II) ions and an excess of [Cu(dmopba)](2-) in DMSO. The study of the temperature dependence of the magnetic susceptibility as well as the temperature and field dependences of the magnetization revealed a cluster glass-like behaviour for 3.

Definindo a arena política local: sistemas partidários municipais na federação brasileira

This article analyzes the Brazilian political system from the local perspective. Following Cox (1997), we review the problems with electoral coordination that emerge from a given institutional framework. Due to the characteristics of the Brazilian Federal system and its electoral rules, linkage between the three levels of government is not guaranteed a priori, but demands a coordinating effort by the parties' leadership. According to our hypothesis, the parties are capable of coordinating their election strategies at different levels in the party system. Regression models based on two-stage least squares (2SLS) and TOBIT, analyzing a panel of Brazilian municipalities with data from the 1994 and 2000 elections, show that the proportion of votes received by a party in a given election correlates closely with its previous votes in majoritarian elections. Despite institutional incentives, the Brazilian party system shows evidence that it is organized nationally to the extent that it links the competition for votes at the three levels of government (National, State, and Municipal).

DISTRIBUTION OF CAPYBARAS IN AN AGROECOSYSTEM, SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL, BASED ON ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING

Southeastern Brazil has seen dramatic landscape modifications in recent decades, due to expansion of agriculture and urban areas; these changes have influenced the distribution and abundance of vertebrates. We developed predictive models of ecological and spatial distributions of capybaras (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) using ecological niche modeling. Most Occurrences of capybaras were in flat areas with water bodies Surrounded by sugarcane and pasture. More than 75% of the Piracicaba River basin was estimated as potentially habitable by capybara. The models had low omission error (2.3-3.4%), but higher commission error (91.0-98.5%); these ""model failures"" seem to be more related to local habitat characteristics than to spatial ones. The potential distribution of capybaras in the basin is associated with anthropogenic habitats, particularly with intensive land use for agriculture.

Offline Detection, Identification, and Correction of Branch Parameter Errors Based on Several Measurement Snapshots

This paper proposes a three-stage offline approach to detect, identify, and correct series and shunt branch parameter errors. In Stage 1 the branches suspected of having parameter errors are identified through an Identification Index (II). The II of a branch is the ratio between the number of measurements adjacent to that branch, whose normalized residuals are higher than a specified threshold value, and the total number of measurements adjacent to that branch. Using several measurement snapshots, in Stage 2 the suspicious parameters are estimated, in a simultaneous multiple-state-and-parameter estimation, via an augmented state and parameter estimator which increases the V - theta state vector for the inclusion of suspicious parameters. Stage 3 enables the validation of the estimation obtained in Stage 2, and is performed via a conventional weighted least squares estimator. Several simulation results (with IEEE bus systems) have demonstrated the reliability of the proposed approach to deal with single and multiple parameter errors in adjacent and non-adjacent branches, as well as in parallel transmission lines with series compensation. Finally the proposed approach is confirmed on tests performed on the Hydro-Quebec TransEnergie network.

A simulation-based evolutionary multiobjective approach to manufacturing cell formation

The purpose of this paper is to propose a multiobjective optimization approach for solving the manufacturing cell formation problem, explicitly considering the performance of this said manufacturing system. Cells are formed so as to simultaneously minimize three conflicting objectives, namely, the level of the work-in-process, the intercell moves and the total machinery investment. A genetic algorithm performs a search in the design space, in order to approximate to the Pareto optimal set. The values of the objectives for each candidate solution in a population are assigned by running a discrete-event simulation, in which the model is automatically generated according to the number of machines and their distribution among cells implied by a particular solution. The potential of this approach is evaluated via its application to an illustrative example, and a case from the relevant literature. The obtained results are analyzed and reviewed. Therefore, it is concluded that this approach is capable of generating a set of alternative manufacturing cell configurations considering the optimization of multiple performance measures, greatly improving the decision making process involved in planning and designing cellular systems. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimization of modal filters based on arrays of piezoelectric sensors

Modal filters may be obtained by a properly designed weighted sum of the output signals of an array of sensors distributed on the host structure. Although several research groups have been interested in techniques for designing and implementing modal filters based on a given array of sensors, the effect of the array topology on the effectiveness of the modal filter has received much less attention. In particular, it is known that some parameters, such as size, shape and location of a sensor, are very important in determining the observability of a vibration mode. Hence, this paper presents a methodology for the topological optimization of an array of sensors in order to maximize the effectiveness of a set of selected modal filters. This is done using a genetic algorithm optimization technique for the selection of 12 piezoceramic sensors from an array of 36 piezoceramic sensors regularly distributed on an aluminum plate, which maximize the filtering performance, over a given frequency range, of a set of modal filters, each one aiming to isolate one of the first vibration modes. The vectors of the weighting coefficients for each modal filter are evaluated using QR decomposition of the complex frequency response function matrix. Results show that the array topology is not very important for lower frequencies but it greatly affects the filter effectiveness for higher frequencies. Therefore, it is possible to improve the effectiveness and frequency range of a set of modal filters by optimizing the topology of an array of sensors. Indeed, using 12 properly located piezoceramic sensors bonded on an aluminum plate it is shown that the frequency range of a set of modal filters may be enlarged by 25-50%.

Performance of the Equivalent Reservoir Modelling Technique for Multi-Reservoir Hydropower Systems

This paper investigates the validity of a simplified equivalent reservoir representation of a multi-reservoir hydroelectric system for modelling its optimal operation for power maximization. This simplification, proposed by Arvanitidis and Rosing (IEEE Trans Power Appar Syst 89(2):319-325, 1970), imputes a potential energy equivalent reservoir with energy inflows and outflows. The hydroelectric system is also modelled for power maximization considering individual reservoir characteristics without simplifications. Both optimization models employed MINOS package for solution of the non-linear programming problems. A comparison between total optimized power generation over the planning horizon by the two methods shows that the equivalent reservoir is capable of producing satisfactory power estimates with less than 6% underestimation. The generation and total reservoir storage trajectories along the planning horizon obtained by equivalent reservoir method, however, presented significant discrepancies as compared to those found in the detailed modelling. This study is motivated by the fact that Brazilian generation system operations are based on the equivalent reservoir method as part of the power dispatch procedures. The potential energy equivalent reservoir is an alternative which eliminates problems with the dimensionality of state variables in a dynamic programming model.