63 resultados para Probabilistic renewable power forecast


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This work presents a case study on technology assessment for power quality improvement devices. A system compatibility test protocol for power quality mitigation devices was developed in order to evaluate the functionality of three-phase voltage restoration devices. In order to validate this test protocol, the micro-DVR, a reduced power development platform for DVR (dynamic voltage restorer) devices, was tested and the results are discussed based on voltage disturbances standards. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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It is well known that structures subjected to dynamic loads do not follow the usual similarity laws when the material is strain rate sensitive. As a consequence, it is not possible to use a scaled model to predict the prototype behaviour. In the present study, this problem is overcome by changing the impact velocity so that the model behaves exactly as the prototype. This exact solution is generated thanks to the use of an exponential constitutive law to infer the dynamic flow stress. Furthermore, it is shown that the adopted procedure does not rely on any previous knowledge of the structure response. Three analytical models are used to analyze the performance of the technique. It is shown that perfect similarity is achieved, regardless of the magnitude of the scaling factor. For the class of material used, the solution outlined has long been sought, inasmuch as it allows perfect similarity for strain rate sensitive structures subject to impact loads. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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We examine the representation of judgements of stochastic independence in probabilistic logics. We focus on a relational logic where (i) judgements of stochastic independence are encoded by directed acyclic graphs, and (ii) probabilistic assessments are flexible in the sense that they are not required to specify a single probability measure. We discuss issues of knowledge representation and inference that arise from our particular combination of graphs, stochastic independence, logical formulas and probabilistic assessments. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The combined-cycle gas and steam turbine power plant presents three main pieces of equipment: gas turbines, steam turbines and heat recovery steam generator (HRSG). In case of HRSG failure the steam cycle is shut down, reducing the power plant output. Considering that the technology for design, construction and operation of high capacity HRSGs is quite recent its availability should be carefully evaluated in order to foresee the performance of the power plant. This study presents a method for reliability and availability evaluation of HRSGs installed in combined-cycle power plant. The method`s first step consists in the elaboration of the steam generator functional tree and development of failure mode and effects analysis. The next step involves a reliability and availability analysis based on the time to failure and time to repair data recorded during the steam generator operation. The third step, aiming at availability improvement, recommends the fault-tree analysis development to identify components the failure (or combination of failures) of which can cause the HRSG shutdown. Those components maintenance policy can be improved through the use of reliability centered maintenance (RCM) concepts. The method is applied on the analysis of two HRSGs installed in a 500 MW combined-cycle power plant. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This paper investigates probabilistic logics endowed with independence relations. We review propositional probabilistic languages without and with independence. We then consider graph-theoretic representations for propositional probabilistic logic with independence; complexity is analyzed, algorithms are derived, and examples are discussed. Finally, we examine a restricted first-order probabilistic logic that generalizes relational Bayesian networks. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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In this work SiOxNy films are produced and characterized. Series of samples were deposited by the plasma enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) technique at low temperatures from silane (SiH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and helium (He) precursor gaseous mixtures, at different deposition power in order to analyze the effect of this parameter on the films structural properties, on the SiOxNy/Si interface quality and on the SiOxNy effective charge density. In order to compare the film structural properties with the interface (SiOxNy/Si) quality and effective charge density, MOS capacitors were fabricated using these films as dielectric layer. X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy (XANES), at the Si-K edge, was utilized to investigate the structure of the films and the material bonding characteristics were analyzed through Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). The MOS capacitors were characterized by low and high frequency capacitance (C-V) measurements, in order to obtain the interface state density (D-it) and the effective charge density (N-ss). An effective charge density linear reduction for decreasing deposition power was observed, result that is attributed to the smaller amount of ions present in the plasma for low RF power. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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In this paper the continuous Verhulst dynamic model is used to synthesize a new distributed power control algorithm (DPCA) for use in direct sequence code division multiple access (DS-CDMA) systems. The Verhulst model was initially designed to describe the population growth of biological species under food and physical space restrictions. The discretization of the corresponding differential equation is accomplished via the Euler numeric integration (ENI) method. Analytical convergence conditions for the proposed DPCA are also established. Several properties of the proposed recursive algorithm, such as Euclidean distance from optimum vector after convergence, convergence speed, normalized mean squared error (NSE), average power consumption per user, performance under dynamics channels, and implementation complexity aspects, are analyzed through simulations. The simulation results are compared with two other DPCAs: the classic algorithm derived by Foschini and Miljanic and the sigmoidal of Uykan and Koivo. Under estimated errors conditions, the proposed DPCA exhibits smaller discrepancy from the optimum power vector solution and better convergence (under fixed and adaptive convergence factor) than the classic and sigmoidal DPCAs. (C) 2010 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

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A thermodynamic information system for diagnosis and prognosis of an existing power plant was developed. The system is based on an analytic approach that informs the current thermodynamic condition of all cycle components, as well as the improvement that can be obtained in the cycle performance by the elimination of the discovered anomalies. The effects induced by components anomalies and repairs in other components efficiency, which have proven to be one of the main drawbacks in the diagnosis and prognosis analyses, are taken into consideration owing to the use of performance curves and corrected performance curves together with the thermodynamic data collected from the distributed control system. The approach used to develop the system is explained, the system implementation in a real gas turbine cogeneration combined cycle is described and the results are discussed. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Estimation of Taylor`s power law for species abundance data may be performed by linear regression of the log empirical variances on the log means, but this method suffers from a problem of bias for sparse data. We show that the bias may be reduced by using a bias-corrected Pearson estimating function. Furthermore, we investigate a more general regression model allowing for site-specific covariates. This method may be efficiently implemented using a Newton scoring algorithm, with standard errors calculated from the inverse Godambe information matrix. The method is applied to a set of biomass data for benthic macrofauna from two Danish estuaries. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This article explores human rights and education based on an intervention experience conducted in three schools located in Sao Paulo City, which had as its main goal a substantial reduction in violence (2004-2005). The guideline was that education should be considered a basic human right, taking into consideration the power and authority relations that exist within this institution. What are the problems that we face, nowadays, to consider education as a human right, in the difficult Brazilian history? Is it possible to think about some kind of democratic authority within the school, when our vision of authority is linked to despotic leaders, or even when there is no space for any authority? How does this discussion associate with the violence in our daily life in school? These are some of the questions included in the debate proposed by this article.

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U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science[DE-FG02-94ER61937]

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Evaluate the distribution and variation of placental vascular indices according to gestational age and placental volume. From March to November 2007, three-dimensional (3D)-power Doppler ultrasound was performed in 295 normal pregnancies from 12 to 40 weeks of gestation. Using the same preestablished settings for all patients, power Doppler was applied to the placenta and placental Volume was obtained by the rotational technique (VOCAL(TM)). The 3D-power histogram was used to determine the placental vascular indices: vascularization index (VI), flow index (FI) and vascularization-flow index (VFI). The placental vascular indices were then plotted against gestational age and placental volume. All placental vascular indices showed constant distribution throughout gestation. A tendency for a reduction in placental vascular indices with increased placental volume was observed, but was only statistically significant when placental FI was considered (p < 0.05). All placental vascular indices estimated by 3D-power Doppler ultrasonography presented constant distribution throughout gestation, despite the increase in placental volume according to gestational age. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Peripheral nerves are structures that, when damaged, can result in significant motor and sensory disabilities. Several studies have used therapeutic resources with the aim of promoting early nerve regeneration, such as the use of low-power laser. However, this laser therapy does not represent a consensus regarding the methodology, thus yielding controversial conclusions. The objective of our study was to investigate, by functional evaluation, the comparative effects of low-power laser (660 nm and 830 nm) on sciatic nerve regeneration following crushing injuries. Twenty-seven Wistar rats subjected to sciatic nerve injury were divided into three groups: group sham, consisting of rats undergoing simulated irradiation; a group consisting of rats subjected to gallium-aluminum-arsenide (GaAlAs) laser at 660 nm (10 J/cm(2), 30 mW and 0.06 cm(2) beam), and another one consisting of rats subjected to GaAlAs laser at 830 nm (10 J/cm(2), 30 mW and 0.116 cm(2)). Laser was applied to the lesion for 21 days. A sciatic functional index (SFI) was used for functional evaluation prior to surgery and on days 7, 14, and 21 after surgery. Differences in SFI were found between group 660 nm and the other ones at the 14th day. One can observe that laser application at 660 nm with the parameters and methods utilised was effective in promoting early functional recovery, as indicated by the SFI, over the period evaluated.

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Objective: To study the influence of low power GaAsAl laser irradiation on the regeneration of a peripheral nerve, following a controlled crush injury. Material and methods: The right common fibular nerve of 30 Wistar rats was submitted to a crush injury with an adjustable load forceps (5 000 g, 10 minutes of application). The animals were divided into three groups (n=10), according to the postoperative procedure (no irradiation; sham irradiation; effective irradiation). Laser irradiation (830 nm wave-length; 100 mW emission power; continuous mode; 140 J/cm(2)) was started on the first postoperative day and continued over 21 consecutive days. Body mass, time spent on the walking track and functional peroneal index (PFI) were analyzed based on the hind footprints, both preoperatively and on the 21st postoperative day. Results: Walking time and PFI significantly improved in the group that received effective laser irradiation, despite the significant gain in body mass between the pre- and post-operative periods. Conclusion: Low Power GaAsAl laser irradiation, with the parameters used in our study, accelerated and improved fibular nerve regeneration in rats.