61 resultados para Plausible Inference


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Xylella fastidiosa is a vector-borne, plant-pathogenic bacterium that causes disease in citrus (citrus variegated chlorosis [CVC]) and coffee (coffee leaf scorch [CLS]) plants in Brazil. CVC and CLS occur sympatrically and share leafhopper vectors; thus, determining whether X. fastidiosa isolates can be dispersed from one crop to another and cause disease is of epidemiological importance. We sought to clarify the genetic and biological relationships between CVC- and CLS-causing X. fastidiosa isolates. We used cross-inoculation bioassays and microsatellite and multilocus sequence typing (MLST) approaches to determine the host range and genetic structure of 26 CVC and 20 CLS isolates collected from different regions in Brazil. Our results show that citrus and coffee X. fastidiosa isolates are biologically distinct. Cross-inoculation tests showed that isolates causing CVC and CLS in the field were able to colonize citrus and coffee plants, respectively, but not the other host, indicating biological isolation between the strains. The microsatellite analysis separated most X. fastidiosa populations tested on the basis of the host plant from which they were isolated. However, recombination among isolates was detected and a lack of congruency among phylogenetic trees was observed for the loci used in the MLST scheme. Altogether, our study indicates that CVC and CLS are caused by two biologically distinct strains of X. fastidiosa that have diverged but are genetically homogenized by frequent recombination.

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Causal inference methods - mainly path analysis and structural equation modeling - offer plant physiologists information about cause-and-effect relationships among plant traits. Recently, an unusual approach to causal inference through stepwise variable selection has been proposed and used in various works on plant physiology. The approach should not be considered correct from a biological point of view. Here, it is explained why stepwise variable selection should not be used for causal inference, and shown what strange conclusions can be drawn based upon the former analysis when one aims to interpret cause-and-effect relationships among plant traits.

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This paper examines the hysteresis hypothesis in the Brazilian industrialized exports using a time series analysis. This hypothesis finds an empirical representation into the nonlinear adjustments of the exported quantity to relative price changes. Thus, the threshold cointegration analysis proposed by Balke and Fomby [Balke, N.S. and Fomby, T.B. Threshold Cointegration. International Economic Review, 1997; 38; 627-645.] was used for estimating models with asymmetric adjustment of the error correction term. Amongst sixteen industrial sectors selected, there was evidence of nonlinearities in the residuals of long-run relationships of supply or demand for exports in nine of them. These nonlinearities represent asymmetric and/or discontinuous responses of exports to different representative measures of real exchange rates, in addition to other components of long-run demand or supply equations. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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We discuss the expectation propagation (EP) algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference using a factorizing posterior approximation. For neural network models, we use a central limit theorem argument to make EP tractable when the number of parameters is large. For two types of models, we show that EP can achieve optimal generalization performance when data are drawn from a simple distribution.

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Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) is widely distributed and associated with fulminant hepatitis epidemics in areas with high prevalence of HBV. Several studies performed in the 1980s showed data on HDV infection in South America, but there are no studies on the viral dynamics of this virus. The aim of this study was to conduct an evolutionary analysis of hepatitis delta genotype 3 (HDV/3) prevalent in South America: estimate its nucleotide substitution rate, determine the time of most recent ancestor (TMRCA) and characterize the epidemic history and evolutionary dynamics. Furthermore, we characterized the presence of HBV/HDV infection in seven samples collected from patients who died due to fulminant hepatitis from Amazon region in Colombia and included them in the evolutionary analysis. This is the first study reporting HBV and HDV sequences from the Amazon region of Colombia. Of the seven Colombian patients, five were positive for HBV-DNA and HDV-RNA. Of them, two samples were successfully sequenced for HBV (subgenotypes F3 and Fib) and the five samples HDV positive were classified as HDV/3. By using all HDV/3 available reference sequences with sampling dates (n = 36), we estimated the HDV/3 substitution rate in 1.07 x 10(-3) substitutions per site per year (s/s/y), which resulted in a time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of 85 years. Also, it was determined that HDV/3 spread exponentially from early 1950s to the 1970s in South America. This work discusses for the first time the viral dynamics for the HDV/3 circulating in South America. We suggest that the measures implemented to control HBV transmission resulted in the control of HDV/3 spreading in South America, especially after the important raise in this infection associated with a huge mortality during the 1950s up to the 1970s. The differences found among HDV/3 and the other HDV genotypes concerning its diversity raises the hypothesis of a different origin and/or a different transmission route. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The traditional methods employed to detect atherosclerotic lesions allow for the identification of lesions; however, they do not provide specific characterization of the lesion`s biochemistry. Currently, Raman spectroscopy techniques are widely used as a characterization method for unknown substances, which makes this technique very important for detecting atherosclerotic lesions. The spectral interpretation is based on the analysis of frequency peaks present in the signal; however, spectra obtained from the same substance can show peaks slightly different and these differences make difficult the creation of an automatic method for spectral signal analysis. This paper presents a signal analysis method based on a clustering technique that allows for the classification of spectra as well as the inference of a diagnosis about the arterial wall condition. The objective is to develop a computational tool that is able to create clusters of spectra according to the arterial wall state and, after data collection, to allow for the classification of a specific spectrum into its correct cluster.

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A previous mathematical model explaining dengue in Singapore predicted a reasonable outbreak of about 6500 cases for 2006 and a very mild outbreak with about 2000 cases for 2007. However, only 3051 cases were reported in 2006 while more than 7800 were reported in the first 44 weeks of 2007. We hypothesized that the combination of haze with other local sources of particulate matter had a significant impact on mosquito life expectancy, significantly increasing their mortality rate. To test the hypothesis a mathematical model based on the reproduction number of dengue fever and aimed at comparing the impact of several possible alternative control strategies was proposed. This model also aimed at contributing to the understanding of the causes of dengue resurgence in Singapore in the last decade. The model`s simulation demonstrated that an increase in mosquito mortality in 2006 and either a reduction in mortality or an increase in the carrying capacity of mosquitoes in 2007 explained the patterned observed in Singapore. Based on the model`s simulation we concluded that the fewer than expected number of dengue cases in Singapore in 2006 was caused by an increase in mosquito mortality due to the disproportionate haze affecting the country that year and that particularly favourable environmental conditions in 2007 propitiated mosquitoes with a lower mortality rate, which explains the greater than expected number of dengue cases in 2007. Whether our hypothesis is plausible or not should be debated further.

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In this study, a PCR multiplex was optimized, allowing the simultaneous analysis of 13 X-chromosome Insertion/deletion polymorphisms (INDELs). Genetic variation observed in Africans, Europeans, and Native Americans reveals high inter-population variability. The estimated proportions of X-chromosomes in an admixed population from the Brazilian Amazon region show a predominant Amerindian contribution (congruent to 41%), followed by European (congruent to 32%) and African (congruent to 27%) contributions. The proportion of Amerindian contribution based on X-linked data is similar to the expected value based on mtDNA and Y-chromosome information. The accuracy for assessing interethnic admixture, and the high differentiation between African, European, and Native American populations, demonstrates the suitability of this INDEL set to measure ancestry proportions in three-hybrid populations, as it is the case of Latin American populations. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 21:707-709, 2009. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) haplotypes are frequently evaluated for population history inferences and association studies. However, the available typing techniques for the main HLA loci usually do not allow the determination of the allele phase and the constitution of a haplotype, which may be obtained by a very time-consuming and expensive family-based segregation study. Without the family-based study, computational inference by probabilistic models is necessary to obtain haplotypes. Several authors have used the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to determine HLA haplotypes, but high levels of erroneous inferences are expected because of the genetic distance among the main HLA loci and the presence of several recombination hotspots. In order to evaluate the efficiency of computational inference methods, 763 unrelated individuals stratified into three different datasets had their haplotypes manually defined in a family-based study of HLA-A, -B, -DRB1 and -DQB1 segregation, and these haplotypes were compared with the data obtained by the following three methods: the Expectation-Maximization (EM) and Excoffier-Laval-Balding (ELB) algorithms using the arlequin 3.11 software, and the PHASE method. When comparing the methods, we observed that all algorithms showed a poor performance for haplotype reconstruction with distant loci, estimating incorrect haplotypes for 38%-57% of the samples considering all algorithms and datasets. We suggest that computational haplotype inferences involving low-resolution HLA-A, HLA-B, HLA-DRB1 and HLA-DQB1 haplotypes should be considered with caution.

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The aim of this work was to test the hypothesis that the bed nucleus of the stria terminalis (BST) and noradrenergic neurotransmission therein mediate cardiovascular responses to acute restraint stress in rats. Bilateral microinjection of the non-specific synaptic blocker CoCl2 (0.1nmol/100nl) into the BST enhanced the heart rate (HR) increase associated with acute restraint without affecting the blood pressure increase, indicating that synapses within the BST influence restraint-evoked HR changes. BST pretreatment with the selective 1-adrenoceptor antagonist WB4101 (15nmol/100nl) caused similar effects to cobalt, indicating that local noradrenergic neurotransmission mediates the BST inhibitory influence on restraint-related HR responses. BST treatment with equimolar doses of the 2-adrenoceptor antagonist RX821002 or the -adrenoceptor antagonist propranolol did not affect restraint-related cardiovascular responses, reinforcing the inference that 1-adrenoceptors mediate the BST-related inhibitory influence on HR responses. Microinjection of WB4101 into the BST of rats pretreated intravenously with the anticholinergic drug homatropine methyl bromide (0.2mg/kg) did not affect restraint-related cardiovascular responses, indicating that the inhibitory influence of the BST on the restraint-evoked HR increase could be related to an increase in parasympathetic activity. Thus, our results suggest an inhibitory influence of the BST on the HR increase evoked by restraint stress, and that this is mediated by local 1-adrenoceptors. The results also indicate that such an inhibitory influence is a result of parasympathetic activation.

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The role of alpha-tocopherol during nephrogenesis was investigated in rats subjected to maternal undernutrition, which reduces the number of nephrons. alpha-tocopherol (350 mg/kg, p.o.) was administered daily to well-nourished or malnourished Wistar dams during pregnancy, or to prenatal undernourished rats during lactation. The kidneys of 1- and 25-day-old offspring were removed to evaluate expression of angiotensin II (Ang II) and to correlate this with expression of proliferating cell nuclear antigen, alpha-smooth muscle actin, fibronectin and vimentin in the glomeruli and tubulointerstitial space. One-day-old prenatally undernourished rats had reduced expression of Ang II and of kidney development markers, and presented with an enlarged nephrogenic zone. Maternal administration of alpha-tocopherol restored the features of normal kidney development in undernourished rats. Twenty-five-day-old prenatally undernourished progeny had fewer glomeruli than the control group. Conversely, animals from mothers that received alpha-tocopherol during lactation presented with the same number of glomeruli and the same glomerular morphometrical profile as the control group. Analyzing the levels of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances in the liver in conjunction with kidney development markers, it is plausible that alpha-tocopherol had antioxidant and non-antioxidant actions. This study provides evidence that alpha-tocopherol treatment restored Ang II expression, and subsequently restored renal structural development.

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A plausible approach to evaluate the inhibitory action of antifungals is through the investigation of the fungal resistance to these drugs. We describe here the molecular cloning and initial characterization of the A. nidulans lipA gene, where mutation (lipA1) conferred resistance to undecanoic acid, the most fungitoxic fatty acid in the C(7:0)-C(18:0) series. The lipA gene codes for a putative lipase with the sequence consensus GVSIS and WIFGGG as the catalytic signature. Comparison of the wild-type and LIP1 mutant strain nucleotide sequences showed a G -> A change in lipA1 allele, which results in a Glu(214) -> Lys substitution in LipA protein. This ionic charge change in a conserved LipA region, next to its catalytic site, may have altered the catalytic properties of this enzyme resulting in resistance to undecanoic acid.

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Allergies in Latin America is the first cross-national survey that describes the symptoms, impact, and treatment of nasal allergies (NAs) in individuals >= 4 years old in Latin America (LA). In total, 22,012 households across the Latin American countries of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela were screened for children, adolescents, and adults with a diagnosis of NA and either symptoms or treatment in the past 12 months. A total of 1088 adults and 457 children and adolescents were included and the sample was probability based to ensure valid statistical inference to the population. Approximately 7% of the LA population was diagnosed with NAs with two of three respondents stating that their allergies were seasonal or intermittent in nature. A general practice physician or otolaryngologist diagnosed the majority of individuals surveyed. Nasal congestion was the most common and bothersome symptom of NAs. Sufferers indicated that their symptoms affected productivity and sleep and had a negative impact on quality of life. Two-thirds of patients reported taking some type of medication for their NAs, with a roughly equal percentage of patients reporting taking over-the-counter versus prescription medications. Changing medications was most commonly done in those reporting inadequate efficacy. The most common reasons cited for dissatisfaction with current medications were related to inadequate effectiveness, effectiveness wearing off with chronic use, failure to provide 24-hour relief, and bothersome side effects (e.g., unpleasant taste and retrograde drainage into the esophagus). Findings from this cross-national survey on NAs have confirmed a high prevalence of physician-diagnosed NAs and a considerable negative impact on daily quality of life and work productivity as well as substantial disease management challenges in LA. Through identification of disease impact on the LA population and further defining treatment gaps, clinicians in LA may better understand and treat NAs, thus leading to improvements in overall patient satisfaction and quality of life. (Allergy Asthma Proc 31:S9-S27, 2010; doi: 10.2500/aap.2010.31.3347)

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This study describes increased sarcolemmal permeability and myofilamentar damage that occur together with lipid peroxidation and protein nitration in the myocardium in severe sepsis induced by cecal ligation and puncture. Male C57BL/6 mice were submitted to moderate and severe septic injury and sham operation. Using light and laser confocal microscopy, diffuse foci of myocytolysis associated with focal disruption of the actin/myosin contractile apparatus could be seen in hearts with severe septic injury. The myocardial expressions of the sarcomeric proteins myosin and actin were downregulated by both severe and moderate injuries. The detection of albumin staining in the cytoplasm of myocytes to evaluate sarcolemmal permeability provided evidence of severe and mild injury of the plasma membrane in hearts with severe and moderate septic injury, respectively. The administration of a superoxide scavenger caused marked reduction of sarcolemmal permeability, indicating the involvement of free radicals in its genesis. On electron microscopy, these changes were seen to correspond to spread blocks of a few myocytes with fragmentation and dissolution of myofibrils, intracellular edema, and, occasionally, rupture of the sarcolemma. In addition, oxidative damage to lipids, using anti-4-hydroxynonenal, an indicator of oxidative stress and disruption of plasma membrane lipids, and to proteins, using antinitrotyrosine, a stable biomarker of peroxynitrite-mediated protein nitration, was demonstrated. These findings make plausible the hypothesis that increased sarcolemmal permeability might be a primary event in myocardial injury in severe sepsis possibly due to oxidative damage to lipids and proteins that could precede phenotypic changes that characterize a septic cardiomyopathy.

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Although many carnivores are of conservation concern, most are poorly studied. The maned wolf Chrysocyon brachyurus Illiger, 1811 is the largest South American canid with a broad distribution; however, the largest portion of its range is in the Brazilian Cerrado savannah, where due to intensive agricultural expansion, it is threatened by habitat loss. Maned wolf population trends are virtually unknown. We analyzed radio telemetry data from a 13-year study in Emas National Park, central Brazil, with Burnham`s live recapture/dead recovery models in the program MARK to obtain the first analytically sound estimate of the apparent maned wolf survival rate. We constructed 16 candidate models including variation in survival rate and resighting probability associated with an individual`s sex or age and year of study. Apparent adult survival rate throughout the study ranged from 0.28 (se=0.08) to 0.97 (se=0.06). There was no evidence for sex specificity but strong support for time variation. Model weights supported an age effect and the subadult survival rate was 0.63 (se=0.15). Results indicate similar life patterns for male and female maned wolves and similar mortality risks for adults and subadults in the study area. The observed temporal fluctuations of adult survival rate are important for population dynamics as they decrease average population growth rates. Population dynamics are central for conservation planning and our results are an important step towards a better understanding of the maned wolf`s ecology.