A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Mineralization and degradation of glyphosate and atrazine applied in combination in a Brazilian Oxisol

The aim of this study was to investigate the behavior of the association between atrazine and glyphosate in the soil through mineralization and degradation tests. Soil treatments consisted of the combination of a field dose of glyphosate (2.88 kg ha-1) with 0, 1/2, 1 and 2 times a field dose of atrazine (3.00 kg ha-1) and a field dose of atrazine with 0, 1/2, 1 and 2 times a field dose of glyphosate. The herbicide mineralization rates were measured after 0, 3, 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 42, 49, 56 and 63 days of soil application, and degradation rates after 0, 7, 28 and 63 days. Although glyphosate mineralization rate was higher in the presence of 1 (one) dose of atrazine when compared with glyphosate alone, no significant differences were found when half or twice the atrazine dose was applied, meaning that differences in glyphosate mineralization rates cannot be attributed to the presence of atrazine. On the other hand, the influence of glyphosate on atrazine mineralization was evident, since increasing doses of glyphosate increased the atrazine mineralization rate and the lowest dose of glyphosate accelerated atrazine degradation.

Bias-corrected Pearson estimating functions for Taylor`s power law applied to benthic macrofauna data

Estimation of Taylor`s power law for species abundance data may be performed by linear regression of the log empirical variances on the log means, but this method suffers from a problem of bias for sparse data. We show that the bias may be reduced by using a bias-corrected Pearson estimating function. Furthermore, we investigate a more general regression model allowing for site-specific covariates. This method may be efficiently implemented using a Newton scoring algorithm, with standard errors calculated from the inverse Godambe information matrix. The method is applied to a set of biomass data for benthic macrofauna from two Danish estuaries. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

PROPOSAL OF A PERFORMANCE MEASURING SYSTEM APPLIED TO AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION

The leaders` organizations of several different sectors have as characteristic to measure their own performance in a systematic way. However, this concept is still unusual in agricultural enterprises, including the mechanization sector. Mechanization has an important role on the production costs and to know its performance is a key factor for the agricultural enterprise success. This work was generated by the importance that measurement of performance has for the management and the mechanization impact on the production costs. Its aim is to propose an integrated performance measurement system to give support to agricultural management. The methodology was divided in two steps: adjustment of a conceptual model based on Balanced Score Card - BSC; application of the model in a study case at sugar cane mill. The adjustment and the application of the conceptual model allowed to obtain the performance index in a systematic way, that are associated to: costs and deadline ( traditionally used); control and improvement on the quality of operations and support process; environmental preservation; safety; health; employees satisfaction; development of information systems. The adjusted model helped the development of the performance measurement system for the mechanized management systems and the index allows an integrated view of the enterprise, related to its strategic objectives.

Canonical discriminant analysis applied to broiler chicken performance

The mechanisms involved in the control of growth in chickens are too complex to be explained only under univariate analysis because all related traits are biologically correlated. Therefore, we evaluated broiler chicken performance under a multivariate approach, using the canonical discriminant analysis. A total of 1920 chicks from eight treatments, defined as the combination of four broiler chicken strains (Arbor Acres, AgRoss 308, Cobb 500 and RX) from both sexes, were housed in 48 pens. Average feed intake, average live weight, feed conversion and carcass, breast and leg weights were obtained for days 1 to 42. Canonical discriminant analysis was implemented by SAS((R)) CANDISC procedure and differences between treatments were obtained by the F-test (P < 0.05) over the squared Mahalanobis` distances. Multivariate performance from all treatments could be easily visualised because one graph was obtained from two first canonical variables, which explained 96.49% of total variation, using a SAS((R)) CONELIP macro. A clear distinction between sexes was found, where males were better than females. Also between strains, Arbor Acres, AgRoss 308 and Cobb 500 (commercial) were better than RX (experimental), Evaluation of broiler chicken performance was facilitated by the fact that the six original traits were reduced to only two canonical variables. Average live weight and carcass weight (first canonical variable) were the most important traits to discriminate treatments. The contrast between average feed intake and average live weight plus feed conversion (second canonical variable) were used to classify them. We suggest analysing performance data sets using canonical discriminant analysis.

X ray densitometry applied to technological evaluation of MDF panels of eucalyptus

MDF panels from eucalyptus wood fibers were manufactured in laboratory and industrial production and had their apparent density profile determined by X-ray densitometry. The MDF panels apparent density parameters (maximum density of the superior and inferior faces; medium and minimum density) were determined and compared. The results indicated that the density values of the MDF panels made in the laboratory and in industrial line did not show significant statistical differences, indicating the similarities in the pressing phase of the fibers of both kinds. However, for MDF panels of laboratory and production line, the values of maximum, mean and minimum densities showed statistically significant correlations. The determination of the density profile for MDF panels by X-ray densitometry is important for the evaluation of pressing phase and other variables of the industrial process of production, as well for the determination of the technological properties.

Bio-Dis and the Paddle Dissolution Apparatuses Applied to the Release Characterization of Ketoprofen from Hypromellose Matrices

The purposes of this work were: (1) to comparatively evaluate the effects of hypromellose viscosity grade and content on ketoprofen release from matrix tablets, using Bio-Dis and the paddle apparatuses, (2) to investigate the influence of the pH of the dissolution medium on drug release. Furthermore, since direct compression had not shown to be appropriate to obtain the matrices under study, it was also an objective (3) to evaluate the impact of granulation on drug release process. Six formulations of ketoprofen matrix tablets were obtained by compression, with or without previous granulation, varying the content and viscosity grade of hypromellose. Dissolution tests were carried out at a fixed pH, in each experiment, with the paddle method (pH 4.5, 6.0, 6.8, or 7.2), while a pH gradient was used in Bio-Dis (pH 1.2 to 7.2). The higher the hypromellose viscosity grade and content were, the lower the amount of ketoprofen released was in both apparatuses, the content effect being more expressive. Drug dissolution enhanced with the increase of the pH of the medium due to its pH-dependent solubility. Granulation caused an increase in drug dissolution and modified the mechanism of the release process.

Phase diagrams of a CTAB/organic solvent/buffer system applied to extraction of enzymes by reverse micelles

A partial pseudo-ternary phase diagram has been studied for the cethyltrimethylammonium bromide/isooctane:hexanol:butanol/potassium phosphate buffer system, where the two-phase diagram consisting of the reverse micelle phase (L-2) in equilibrium with the solvent is indicated. Based on these diagrams two-phase systems of reverse micelles were prepared with different compositions of the compounds and used for extraction and recovery of two enzymes, and the percentage of enzyme recovery yield monitored. The enzymes glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) and xylose redutase (XR) obtained from Candida guilliermondii yeast were used in the extraction procedures. The recovery yield data indicate that micelles having different composition give selective extraction of enzymes. The method can thus be used to optimize enzyme extraction processes. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparative study of laser and LED systems of low intensity applied to tendon healing

The aim of this study was to compare the effects of Low-intensity Laser Therapy (LILT) and Light Emitting Diode Therapy (LEDT) of low intensity on the treatment of lesioned Achilles tendon of rats. The experimental model consisted of a partial mechanical lesion on the right Achilles tendon deep portion of 90 rats. One hour after the lesion, the injured animals received applications of laser/LED (685, 830/630, 880 nm), and the same procedure was repeated at 24-h intervals, for 10 days. The healing process and deposition of collagen were evaluated based on a polarization microscopy analysis of the alignment and organization of collagen bundles, through the birefringence (optical retardation-OR). The results showed a real efficiency of treatments based on LEDT and confirmed that LILT seems to be effective on healing process. Although absence of coherence of LED light, tendon healing treatment with this feature was satisfactory and can certainly replace treatments based on laser light applications. Applications of infrared laser at 830 nm and LED 880 nm were more efficient when the aim is a good organization, aggregation, and alignment of the collagen bundles on tendon healing. However, more research is needed for a safety and more efficient determination of a protocol with LED.

The Ethics and Citizenship Program: a Brazilian experience in moral education

This article describes the Ethics and Citizenship Program, a moral education project developed by the Brazilian government to promote education in ethics and citizenship in Brazilian fundamental and middle schools through four key themes: ethics, democratic coexistence, human rights and social inclusion. Some findings from a research project that investigated whether such a program did in fact promote the ethical and citizenship awareness of participating students are outlined. As an introduction to the paper`s main concerns, the Brazilian socioeconomic context is characterised, followed by a description of the historical background of moral education in Brazil.

The impact of life stage and societal culture on subordinate influence ethics: A study of Brazil, China, Germany, and the US

In this paper, we investigate the effects of societal values and life stage on subordinate influence ethics. Based on the evolving crossvergence theory of macro-level predictors of values evolution, we demonstrate the applicability of crossvergence theory in the micro-level context. Furthermore, our study provides the first empirical multi-level analysis of influence ethics utilizing a multi pie-country sample. Thus, we illustrate how the breath of crossvergence can be expanded to provide a multi-level theoretical foundation of values and behavior evolution across cultures. Specifically, we integrate micro-level life stage theory and macro-level societal culture theory to concurrently assess the contributions of each theory in explaining subordinate influence ethics across the diverse societies of Brazil. China, Germany and the U.S. Consistent with previous research, we found significant societal differences in influence ethics. However, we also found that life stage theory played a significant role in understanding influence ethics. Thus, our findings expand the crossvergence perspective on societal change, indicating that key micro-level predictors (e.g., life stage) should be included in cross-cultural research. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOSY NMR applied to analysis of flavonoid glycosides from Bidens sulphurea

2D DOSY (1)H NMR has proved to be a useful technique in the identification of the molecular skeleton of the four major compounds of ethyl acetate extract of aerial parts of Bidens sulphurea (Asteraceae). The combination of this technique with HPLC, mass spectrometry and other NMR techniques enabled the identification of four flavonoid glycosides: quercetin-3-O-beta-D-galactopyranoside, quercetin-3-O-beta-D-glycopyranoside, quercetin-3-O-alpha-L-arabinofuranoside and quercetin-3-O-beta-D-rhamnopyranoside. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Peritoneal Dialysis in Acute Kidney Injury: Lessons Learned and Applied

Peritoneal dialysis (PD) is a simple, safe, gentle, and efficient renal replacement therapy (RRT) method. It is able to correct acute kidney injury (AKI)-induced metabolic, electrolytic, and acid-base disorders and volume overload both in and out the intensive care unit setting. Some PD modalities, such as high-volume PD and continuous flow PD, can provide RRT doses and efficiency comparable to extracorporeal blood purification methods. PD is particularly suitable for children, patients with refractory heart failure or hemodynamically instable, conditions where systemic anticoagulation should be avoided, patients with difficulty for vascular access and hypo- and hyperthermia conditions. In the following manuscript, PD technical aspects and the possible advantages and limitations of this RRT method will be discussed, and the more recent literature on clinical experience with PD for treatment of AKI will be reviewed.

The influence of the amount of sunscreen applied and its sun protection factor (SPF): evaluation of two sunscreens including the same ingredients at different concentrations

Background To estimate labeled sun protection factor (SPF) for sunscreen, the amount of product applied on volunteers, according to food and drug administration (FDA) and International protocols, is 2 mg/cm(2). However, different studies have shown that consumers actually apply much less product when exposed to the sun. Previous studies have reported contradictory findings in an attempt to correlate the amount applied in relation to SPF. The objective of the present study was to estimate the influence of the quantity of sunscreen applied in the determination of SPF, according to the FDA methodology. Subjects and methods Forty volunteers were included in two groups (SPF 15 and 30). The selected sunscreen was then applied in four different quantities (2, 1.5, 1.0 and 0.5 mg/cm(2)). All areas were irradiated with a solar simulator. After 24 h, the minimal erythemal dose (MED) and SPF were determined. Results In both groups, we observed that the SPF decreased when the amount of sunscreen applied was decreased. The differences between the 2 mg/cm(2) area and the others were significant in both groups (P < 0.001). The correlation between specified SPF and applied amount grew exponentially. Conclusion The protection provided by sunscreen is related to the amount of product applied. It is essential to educate consumers to apply larger amounts of sunscreen for adequate photoprotection.

Independent component analysis applied to raman spectra for classification of in vitro human coronary arteries

Optical diagnostic methods, such as near-infrared Raman spectroscopy allow quantification and evaluation of human affecting diseases, which could be useful in identifying and diagnosing atherosclerosis in coronary arteries. The goal of the present work is to apply Independent Component Analysis (ICA) for data reduction and feature extraction of Raman spectra and to perform the Mahalanobis distance for group classification according to histopathology, obtaining feasible diagnostic information to detect atheromatous plaque. An 830nm Ti:sapphire laser pumped by an argon laser provides near-infrared excitation. A spectrograph disperses light scattered from arterial tissues over a liquid-nitrogen cooled CCD to detect the Raman spectra. A total of 111 spectra from arterial fragments were utilized.