132 resultados para forecast deviation
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Background: Risperidone long-acting injection (RLAI) has been shown to be efficacious, improve compliance, and increase long-term retention rate on therapy. The aim of this work was to determine the effect of RLAI on clinical outcome and hospitalization rate in patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder enrolled in the electronic Schizophrenia Treatment Adherence Registry in Latin America. Methods: Data were collected at baseline, retrospectively for the 12 months prior to baseline, and prospectively every three months for 24 months. Hospitalization prior to therapy was assessed by a retrospective chart review. Efficacy and functioning were evaluated using Clinical Global Impression of Illness Severity (CGI-S), Personal and Social Performance (PSP), and Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) scores. Relapse and treatment were also registered. Results: Patients were recruited in Mexico (n = 53), Brazil (n = 11), and Colombia (n = 15). Sixty-five percent (n = 52) were male, and mean age was 32.9 years. Patients were classified as having schizophrenia (n = 73) or schizoaffective disorder (n = 6). The mean dose of RLAI at six months was 34.1 mg (standard deviation = 10.2 mg). The percentage of hospitalized patients before treatment was 28.2% and 5.1% at six months after initiating RLAI (P < 0.001). Significant changes were registered on CGI-S, GAF, and PSP scores. Conclusions: RLAI was associated with an improvement in clinical symptoms and functioning, and a greater reduction in hospitalization.
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Background: The vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is a major promoter of endothelial growth and migration. Some studies have shown a correlation between expression of this growth factor and prognosis in several cancers, including well-differentiated thyroid cancer. Aim: We studied VEGF expression, local invasiveness, and other prognostic factors in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) to test the hypothesis that the expression of VEGF is correlated with the degree of invasion of PTC. Patients and Methods: Clinical and pathological data of 76 patients with PTC were retrospectively reviewed. Group 1 consisted of patients with gross locally invasive tumors, group 2 consisted of patients with only invasion of the thyroid capsule, and group 3 consisted of patients with noninvasive PTC. Results: VEGF expression was noted within the tumor in all groups of PTC patients but was absent in the surrounding normal tissue. Older patients had higher expression of VEGF than younger patients. The age of patients with strong reaction to VEGF was 46 +/- 14 (mean +/- standard deviation), and that in patients with a weaker reaction was 39 +/- 16 (p<0.05). Only 20% of patients with a follicular variant of PTC had a strong reaction to VEGF compared with 68% of patients with classical PTC (p<0.01). Conclusions: VEGF expression appears to be an early event in the development of PTC. Whether VEGF expression promotes the progression of PTC is not known, but the answer to this question may be important in view of its greater expression in older patients, a group whose prognosis in PTC is worse.
A survey on clinical presentation and nutritional status of infants with suspected cow' milk allergy
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Background: Cow's milk is the most common food allergen in infants and the diagnosis of cow's milk allergy is difficult, even with the use of several diagnostic tests. Therefore, elimination diets and challenge tests are essential for the diagnosis and treatment of this disorder. The aim of this study is to report the clinical presentation and nutritional status of children evaluated by pediatric gastroenterologists for the assessment of symptoms suggestive of cow's milk allergy. Methods: An observational cross-sectional study was performed among 9,478 patients evaluated by 30 pediatric gastroenterologists for 40 days in 5 different geographical regions in Brazil. Clinical data were collected from patients with symptoms suggestive of cow's milk allergy. The nutritional status of infants (age <= 24 months) seen for the first time was evaluated according to z-scores for weight-for-age, weight-for-height, and height-for-age. Epi-Info (CDC-NCHS, 2000) software was used to calculate z-scores. Results: The prevalence of suspected cow's milk allergy in the study population was 5.4% (513/9,478), and the incidence was 2.2% (211/9,478). Among 159 infants seen at first evaluation, 15.1% presented with a low weight-for-age z score (< -2.0 standard deviation - SD), 8.7% with a low weight-for-height z score (< -2.0 SD), and 23.9% with a low height-for-age z score (< -2.0 SD). Conclusion: The high prevalence of nutritional deficits among infants with symptoms suggestive of cow's milk allergy indicates that effective elimination diets should be prescribed to control allergy symptoms and to prevent or treat malnutrition.
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Survival or longevity is an economically important trait in beef cattle. The main inconvenience for its inclusion in selection criteria is delayed recording of phenotypic data and the high computational demand for including survival in proportional hazard models. Thus, identification of a longevity-correlated trait that could be recorded early in life would be very useful for selection purposes. We estimated the genetic relationship of survival with productive and reproductive traits in Nellore cattle, including weaning weight (WW), post-weaning growth (PWG), muscularity (MUSC), scrotal circumference at 18 months (SC18), and heifer pregnancy (HP). Survival was measured in discrete time intervals and modeled through a sequential threshold model. Five independent bivariate Bayesian analyses were performed, accounting for cow survival and the five productive and reproductive traits. Posterior mean estimates for heritability (standard deviation in parentheses) were 0.55 (0.01) for WW, 0.25 (0.01) for PWG, 0.23 (0.01) for MUSC, and 0.48 (0.01) for SC18. The posterior mean estimates (95% confidence interval in parentheses) for the genetic correlation with survival were 0.16 (0.13-0.19), 0.30 (0.25-0.34), 0.31 (0.25-0.36), 0.07 (0.02-0.12), and 0.82 (0.78-0.86) for WW, PWG, MUSC, SC18, and HP, respectively. Based on the high genetic correlation and heritability (0.54) posterior mean estimates for HP, the expected progeny difference for HP can be used to select bulls for longevity, as well as for post-weaning gain and muscle score.
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Females of Aegla strinatii (n = 466) were sampled monthly (September 2003 to September 2005) by means of sieves and traps from Rio das Ostras (24 degrees 38'16.2 '' S; 48 degrees 24'05.2 '' W), at Jacupiranga State Park, South of Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The reproductive period was markedly seasonal (from May to September) encompassing the Austral late autumn through late winter. This is in accordance to the pattern of reproductive period variations in relation to the latitudinal climate variability verified in species of Aegla. The proportion of adult females exhibiting the ovigerous condition was higher in young/small specimens as compared to old/large ones, and suggests the occurrence of senescence in the latter group. Average size at the onset of functional maturity in females was estimated as 16.66 mm of carapace length (rostrum excluded). The number of eggs per ovigerous females ranged from 1 to 325. Eggs are slightly elliptical and average size varied according to embryonic stage. Mean (+/- standard deviation) carapace length of juveniles (n = 118) was 1.50 +/- 0.05 mm (range: 1.40-1.65mm).
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Background: Chamydophila pneumoniae (CP) and/or Mycoplasma pneumoniae ( MP) are two bacteria detected in vulnerable atheromas. In this study we aimed to analyze whether CP and/or MP aggravates atherosclerosis induced by cholesterol-enriched diet in C57BL/6 apoE KO male mice. Thirty male apoE KO mice aged eight weeks fed by a diet containing 1% cholesterol until 32 weeks of age were divided into four groups: the first was inoculated with CP (n = 7), the second with MP (n = 12), the third with both CP + MP ( n = 5), and the fourth with saline (sham n = 6). The animals were re-inoculated at 36 weeks of age, and sacrificed at 40 weeks of age. Two ascending aorta and one aortic arch segments were sampled. In the most severely obstructed segment, vessel diameter, plaque height, percentage of luminal obstruction and the degree of adventitial inflammation were analyzed. The plaque area/intimal surface ratio was obtained by measuring all three segments. The adventitial inflammation was semiquantified (0 absent, 1 mild, 2 moderate, and 3 diffuse). Results: The mean and standard deviation of plaque height, % luminal obstruction, external diameter, the plaque area/intimal surface ratio and the adventitial inflammation values are the following for each group: MP (0.20 +/- 12 mm, 69 +/- 26%, 0.38 +/- 0.11 mm, 0.04 +/- 0.04 and 0.22 +/- 0.67), CP (0.23 +/- 0.08 mm, 90 +/- 26%, 0.37 +/- 0.08 mm, 0.04 +/- 0.03, and 0.44 +/- 0.53), MP + CP ( 18 +/- 0.08 mm, 84 +/- 4.0%, 0.35 +/- 0.25 mm, 0.03 +/- 0.03 and 1.33 +/- 0.82) and sham (0.08 +/- 0.09 mm, 42 +/- 46%, 0.30 +/- 0.10 mm, 0.02 +/- 0.03 and 0.71 +/- 0.76). A wider area of plaque/intimal surface was observed in MP + CP inoculated groups (p = 0.07 and 0.06) as well as an increased plaque height in CP (p = 0.01) in comparison with sham group. There was also an increased luminal obstruction (p = 0.047) in CP inoculated group in comparison to sham group. Adventitial inflammation in MP + CP inoculated group was higher than MP, CP and the sham groups (p = 0.02). Conclusion: Inoculation of CP, MP or both agents in C57BL/6 apoE KO male mice caused aggravation of experimental atherosclerosis induced by cholesterol-enriched diet, with distinct characteristics. CP inoculation increased the plaque height with positive vessel remodeling and co-inoculation of MP + CP caused the highest adventitial inflammation measures.
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Atmospheric aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) are key elements of the hydrological cycle and climate. We have measured and characterized CCN at water vapor supersaturations in the range of S=0.10-0.82% in pristine tropical rainforest air during the AMAZE-08 campaign in central Amazonia. The effective hygroscopicity parameters describing the influence of chemical composition on the CCN activity of aerosol particles varied in the range of kappa approximate to 0.1-0.4 (0.16+/-0.06 arithmetic mean and standard deviation). The overall median value of kappa approximate to 0.15 was by a factor of two lower than the values typically observed for continental aerosols in other regions of the world. Aitken mode particles were less hygroscopic than accumulation mode particles (kappa approximate to 0.1 at D approximate to 50 nm; kappa approximate to 0.2 at D approximate to 200 nm), which is in agreement with earlier hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyzer (H-TDMA) studies. The CCN measurement results are consistent with aerosol mass spectrometry (AMS) data, showing that the organic mass fraction (f(org)) was on average as high as similar to 90% in the Aitken mode (D <= 100 nm) and decreased with increasing particle diameter in the accumulation mode (similar to 80% at D approximate to 200 nm). The kappa values exhibited a negative linear correlation with f(org) (R(2)=0.81), and extrapolation yielded the following effective hygroscopicity parameters for organic and inorganic particle components: kappa(org)approximate to 0.1 which can be regarded as the effective hygroscopicity of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and kappa(inorg)approximate to 0.6 which is characteristic for ammonium sulfate and related salts. Both the size dependence and the temporal variability of effective particle hygroscopicity could be parameterized as a function of AMS-based organic and inorganic mass fractions (kappa(p)=kappa(org) x f(org)+kappa(inorg) x f(inorg)). The CCN number concentrations predicted with kappa(p) were in fair agreement with the measurement results (similar to 20% average deviation). The median CCN number concentrations at S=0.1-0.82% ranged from N(CCN,0.10)approximate to 35 cm(-3) to N(CCN,0.82)approximate to 160 cm(-3), the median concentration of aerosol particles larger than 30 nm was N(CN,30)approximate to 200 cm(-3), and the corresponding integral CCN efficiencies were in the range of N(CCN,0.10/NCN,30)approximate to 0.1 to N(CCN,0.82/NCN,30)approximate to 0.8. Although the number concentrations and hygroscopicity parameters were much lower in pristine rainforest air, the integral CCN efficiencies observed were similar to those in highly polluted megacity air. Moreover, model calculations of N(CCN,S) assuming an approximate global average value of kappa approximate to 0.3 for continental aerosols led to systematic overpredictions, but the average deviations exceeded similar to 50% only at low water vapor supersaturation (0.1%) and low particle number concentrations (<= 100 cm(-3)). Model calculations assuming aconstant aerosol size distribution led to higher average deviations at all investigated levels of supersaturation: similar to 60% for the campaign average distribution and similar to 1600% for a generic remote continental size distribution. These findings confirm earlier studies suggesting that aerosol particle number and size are the major predictors for the variability of the CCN concentration in continental boundary layer air, followed by particle composition and hygroscopicity as relatively minor modulators. Depending on the required and applicable level of detail, the information and parameterizations presented in this paper should enable efficient description of the CCN properties of pristine tropical rainforest aerosols of Amazonia in detailed process models as well as in large-scale atmospheric and climate models.
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This Letter reports new results from the MINOS experiment based on a two-year exposure to muon neutrinos from the Fermilab NuMI beam. Our data are consistent with quantum-mechanical oscillations of neutrino flavor with mass splitting vertical bar Delta m(2)vertical bar = (2.43 +/- 0.13) x 10(-3) eV(2) (68% C.L.) and mixing angle sin(2)(2 theta) > 0.90 (90% C.L.). Our data disfavor two alternative explanations for the disappearance of neutrinos in flight: namely, neutrino decays into lighter particles and quantum decoherence of neutrinos, at the 3.7 and 5.7 standard-deviation levels, respectively.
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Bose-Einstein correlations of charged kaons are used to probe Au+Au collisions at s(NN)=200 GeV and are compared to charged pion probes, which have a larger hadronic scattering cross section. Three-dimensional Gaussian source radii are extracted, along with a one-dimensional kaon emission source function. The centrality dependences of the three Gaussian radii are well described by a single linear function of N(part)(1/3) with a zero intercept. Imaging analysis shows a deviation from a Gaussian tail at r greater than or similar to 10 fm, although the bulk emission at lower radius is well described by a Gaussian. The presence of a non-Gaussian tail in the kaon source reaffirms that the particle emission region in a heavy-ion collision is extended, and that similar measurements with pions are not solely due to the decay of long-lived resonances.
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The PHENIX experiment has measured the suppression of semi-inclusive single high-transverse-momentum pi(0)'s in Au+Au collisions at root s(NN) = 200 GeV. The present understanding of this suppression is in terms of energy loss of the parent (fragmenting) parton in a dense color-charge medium. We have performed a quantitative comparison between various parton energy-loss models and our experimental data. The statistical point-to-point uncorrelated as well as correlated systematic uncertainties are taken into account in the comparison. We detail this methodology and the resulting constraint on the model parameters, such as the initial color-charge density dN(g)/dy, the medium transport coefficient <(q) over cap >, or the initial energy-loss parameter epsilon(0). We find that high-transverse-momentum pi(0) suppression in Au+Au collisions has sufficient precision to constrain these model-dependent parameters at the +/- 20-25% (one standard deviation) level. These constraints include only the experimental uncertainties, and further studies are needed to compute the corresponding theoretical uncertainties.
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We report on temperature-dependent magnetoresistance measurements in balanced double quantum wells exposed to microwave irradiation for various frequencies. We have found that the resistance oscillations are described by the microwave-induced modification of electron distribution function limited by inelastic scattering (inelastic mechanism), up to a temperature of T*similar or equal to 4 K. With increasing temperature, a strong deviation of the oscillation amplitudes from the behavior predicted by this mechanism is observed, presumably indicating a crossover to another mechanism of microwave photoresistance, with similar frequency dependence. Our analysis shows that this deviation cannot be fully understood in terms of contribution from the mechanisms discussed in theory.
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A systematic study of magnetoresistance and dc magnetization was conducted in polycrystalline (Ru(1-x)Ir(x))Sr(2)GdCu(2)O(8) [(Ru,Ir)-1212] compounds, for 0 <= x <= 0.15. We found that a deviation from linearity in the normal-state electrical resistivity (rho) curves for temperatures below the magnetic transition temperature T(M) < 130 K can be properly described by a logarithmic term. The prefactor C(x, H) of this anomalous ln T contribution to rho(T) increases linearly with the Ir concentration, and diminishes rapidly with increasing applied magnetic field up to H approximate to 4 T, merging with the C(0,H) curve at higher magnetic fields. Correlation with magnetic susceptibility measurements supports a scenario of local perturbations in the orientation of Ru moments induced in the neighborhood of the Ir ions, therefore acting as scattering centers. The linear dependence of the prefactor C(x,H=0) and the superconducting transition temperature T(SC) on x points to a common source for the resistivity anomaly and the reduction in T(SC), suggesting that the CuO(2) and RuO(2) layers are not decoupled.
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The influence of microwave irradiation on dissipative and Hall resistance in high-quality bilayer electron systems is investigated experimentally. We observe a deviation from odd symmetry under magnetic-field reversal in the microwave-induced Hall resistance boolean AND R(xy), whereas the dissipative resistance boolean AND R(xx) obeys even symmetry. Studies of Delta R(xy) as a function of the microwave electric field and polarization exhibit a strong and nontrivial power and polarization dependence. The obtained results are discussed in connection to existing theoretical models of microwave-induced photoconductivity.
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The existence of quantum correlation (as revealed by quantum discord), other than entanglement and its role in quantum-information processing (QIP), is a current subject for discussion. In particular, it has been suggested that this nonclassical correlation may provide computational speedup for some quantum algorithms. In this regard, bulk nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) has been successfully used as a test bench for many QIP implementations, although it has also been continuously criticized for not presenting entanglement in most of the systems used so far. In this paper, we report a theoretical and experimental study on the dynamics of quantum and classical correlations in an NMR quadrupolar system. We present a method for computing the correlations from experimental NMR deviation-density matrices and show that, given the action of the nuclear-spin environment, the relaxation produces a monotonic time decay in the correlations. Although the experimental realizations were performed in a specific quadrupolar system, the main results presented here can be applied to whichever system uses a deviation-density matrix formalism.
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Context tree models have been introduced by Rissanen in [25] as a parsimonious generalization of Markov models. Since then, they have been widely used in applied probability and statistics. The present paper investigates non-asymptotic properties of two popular procedures of context tree estimation: Rissanen's algorithm Context and penalized maximum likelihood. First showing how they are related, we prove finite horizon bounds for the probability of over- and under-estimation. Concerning overestimation, no boundedness or loss-of-memory conditions are required: the proof relies on new deviation inequalities for empirical probabilities of independent interest. The under-estimation properties rely on classical hypotheses for processes of infinite memory. These results improve on and generalize the bounds obtained in Duarte et al. (2006) [12], Galves et al. (2008) [18], Galves and Leonardi (2008) [17], Leonardi (2010) [22], refining asymptotic results of Buhlmann and Wyner (1999) [4] and Csiszar and Talata (2006) [9]. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.