A Dynamic Analysis of Tuberculosis Dissemination to Improve Control and Surveillance

Background: Detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions among biological, environmental, social, and economic factors that favour the spread of certain diseases is extremely useful for designing effective control strategies. Diseases like tuberculosis that kills somebody every 15 seconds in the world, require methods that take into account the disease dynamics to design truly efficient control and surveillance strategies. The usual and well established statistical approaches provide insights into the cause-effect relationships that favour disease transmission but they only estimate risk areas, spatial or temporal trends. Here we introduce a novel approach that allows figuring out the dynamical behaviour of the disease spreading. This information can subsequently be used to validate mathematical models of the dissemination process from which the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for this spreading could be inferred. Methodology/Principal Findings: The method presented here is based on the analysis of the spread of tuberculosis in a Brazilian endemic city during five consecutive years. The detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of the yearly geo-referenced data, using different characteristic times of the disease evolution, allowed us to trace the temporal path of the aetiological agent, to locate the sources of infection, and to characterize the dynamics of disease spreading. Consequently, the method also allowed for the identification of socio-economic factors that influence the process. Conclusions/Significance: The information obtained can contribute to more effective budget allocation, drug distribution and recruitment of human skilled resources, as well as guiding the design of vaccination programs. We propose that this novel strategy can also be applied to the evaluation of other diseases as well as other social processes.

Dynamic polarizability, Cauchy moments, and the optical absorption spectrum of liquid water: A sequential molecular dynamics/quantum mechanical approach

The dynamic polarizability and optical absorption spectrum of liquid water in the 6-15 eV energy range are investigated by a sequential molecular dynamics (MD)/quantum mechanical approach. The MD simulations are based on a polarizable model for liquid water. Calculation of electronic properties relies on time-dependent density functional and equation-of-motion coupled-cluster theories. Results for the dynamic polarizability, Cauchy moments, S(-2), S(-4), S(-6), and dielectric properties of liquid water are reported. The theoretical predictions for the optical absorption spectrum of liquid water are in good agreement with experimental information.

Experimental analysis of active-passive vibration control using viscoelastic materials and extension and shear piezoelectric actuators

Hybrid active-passive damping treatments combine the reliability, low cost and robustness of viscoelastic damping treatments and the high-performance, modal selective and adaptive piezoelectric active control. Numerous hybrid damping treatments have been reported in the literature. They differ mainly by the relative positions of viscoelastic treatments, sensors and piezoelectric actuators. In this work we present an experimental analysis of three active-passive damping design configurations applied to a cantilever beam. In particular, two design configurations based on the extension mode of piezoelectric actuators combined with viscoelastic constrained layer damping treatments and one design configuration with shear piezoelectric actuators embedded in a sandwich beam with viscoelastic core are analyzed. For comparison purposes, a purely active design configuration with an extension piezoelectric actuator bonded to an elastic beam is also analyzed. The active-passive damping performance of the four design configurations is compared. Results show that active-passive design configurations provide more reliable and wider-range damping performance than the purely active configuration.

Leak detection by inverse transient analysis in an experimental PVC pipe system

Leakage reduction in water supply systems and distribution networks has been an increasingly important issue in the water industry since leaks and ruptures result in major physical and economic losses. Hydraulic transient solvers can be used in the system operational diagnosis, namely for leak detection purposes, due to their capability to describe the dynamic behaviour of the systems and to provide substantial amounts of data. In this research work, the association of hydraulic transient analysis with an optimisation model, through inverse transient analysis (ITA), has been used for leak detection and its location in an experimental facility containing PVC pipes. Observed transient pressure data have been used for testing ITA. A key factor for the success of the leak detection technique used is the accurate calibration of the transient solver, namely adequate boundary conditions and the description of energy dissipation effects since PVC pipes are characterised by a viscoelastic mechanical response. Results have shown that leaks were located with an accuracy between 4-15% of the total length of the pipeline, depending on the discretisation of the system model.

Modeling and Analysis of Piezoelectric Energy Harvesting From Aeroelastic Vibrations Using the Doublet-Lattice Method

Multifunctional structures are pointed out as an important technology for the design of aircraft with volume, mass, and energy source limitations such as unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) and micro air vehicles (MAVs). In addition to its primary function of bearing aerodynamic loads, the wing/spar structure of an UAV or a MAV with embedded piezoceramics can provide an extra electrical energy source based on the concept of vibration energy harvesting to power small and wireless electronic components. Aeroelastic vibrations of a lifting surface can be converted into electricity using piezoelectric transduction. In this paper, frequency-domain piezoaeroelastic modeling and analysis of a canti-levered platelike wing with embedded piezoceramics is presented for energy harvesting. The electromechanical finite-element plate model is based on the thin-plate (Kirchhoff) assumptions while the unsteady aerodynamic model uses the doublet-lattice method. The electromechanical and aerodynamic models are combined to obtain the piezoaeroelastic equations, which are solved using a p-k scheme that accounts for the electromechanical coupling. The evolution of the aerodynamic damping and the frequency of each mode are obtained with changing airflow speed for a given electrical circuit. Expressions for piezoaeroelastically coupled frequency response functions (voltage, current, and electrical power as well the vibratory motion) are also defined by combining flow excitation with harmonic base excitation. Hence, piezoaeroelastic evolution can be investigated in frequency domain for different airflow speeds and electrical boundary conditions. [DOI:10.1115/1.4002785]

Experimental analysis of wheel/workpiece dynamic interactions in grinding

The aim of this work is to study the wheel/workpiece dynamic interactions in high-speed grinding using vitrified CBN wheel and DTG (difficult to grind) work materials. This problem is typical in the grinding of engine valve heads. The influence of tangential force per abrasive grain was investigated as an important control variable for the determination of G ratio. Experiments were carried out to observe the influence of vibrations in the wheel wear. The measurements of acoustic emission (AE) and vibration signals helped in identifying the correlation between the dynamic interactions (produced by forced random excitation) and the wheel wear. The wheel regenerative chatter phenomenon was observed by using the wheel mapping technique. (c) 2008 CIRP.

Finite element and dimensional analysis algorithm for the prediction of mechanical properties of bulk materials and thin films

In this work, the applicability of a new algorithm for the estimation of mechanical properties from instrumented indentation data was studied for thin films. The applicability was analyzed with the aid of both three-dimensional finite element simulations and experimental indentation tests. The numerical approach allowed studying the effect of the substrate on the estimation of mechanical properties of the film, which was conducted based on the ratio h(max)/l between maximum indentation depth and film thickness. For the experimental analysis, indentation tests were conducted on AISI H13 tool steel specimens, plasma nitrated and coated with TiN thin films. Results have indicated that, for the conditions analyzed in this work, the elastic deformation of the substrate limited the extraction of mechanical properties of the film/substrate system. This limitation occurred even at low h(max)/l ratios and especially for the estimation of the values of yield strength and strain hardening exponent. At indentation depths lower than 4% of the film thickness, the proposed algorithm estimated the mechanical properties of the film with accuracy. Particularly for hardness, precise values were estimated at h(max)/l lower than 0.1, i.e. 10% of film thickness. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Void fraction measurement and signal analysis from multiple-electrode impedance sensors

Void fraction sensors are important instruments not only for monitoring two-phase flow, but for furnishing an important parameter for obtaining flow map pattern and two-phase flow heat transfer coefficient as well. This work presents the experimental results obtained with the analysis of two axially spaced multiple-electrode impedance sensors tested in an upward air-water two-phase flow in a vertical tube for void fraction measurements. An electronic circuit was developed for signal generation and post-treatment of each sensor signal. By phase shifting the electrodes supplying the signal, it was possible to establish a rotating electric field sweeping across the test section. The fundamental principle of using a multiple-electrode configuration is based on reducing signal sensitivity to the non-uniform cross-section void fraction distribution problem. Static calibration curves were obtained for both sensors, and dynamic signal analyses for bubbly, slug, and turbulent churn flows were carried out. Flow parameters such as Taylor bubble velocity and length were obtained by using cross-correlation techniques. As an application of the void fraction tested, vertical flow pattern identification could be established by using the probability density function technique for void fractions ranging from 0% to nearly 70%.

Dynamic positioning systems: An experimental analysis of sliding mode control

Vessel dynamic positioning (DP) systems are based on conventional PID-type controllers and an extended Kalman filter. However, they present a difficult tuning procedure, and the closed-loop performance varies with environmental or loading conditions since the dynamics of the vessel are eminently nonlinear. Gain scheduling is normally used to address the nonlinearity of the system. To overcome these problems, a sliding mode control was evaluated. This controller is robust to variations in environmental and loading conditions, it maintains performance and stability for a large range of conditions, and presents an easy tuning methodology. The performance of the controller was evaluated numerically and experimentally in order to address its effectiveness. The results are compared with those obtained from conventional PID controller. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Discontinuation of continuous renal replacement therapy: A post hoc analysis of a prospective multicenter observational study

Objectives: To describe current practice for the discontinuation of continuous renal replacement therapy in a multinational setting and to identify variables associated with successful discontinuation. The approach to discontinue continuous renal replacement therapy may affect patient outcomes. However, there is lack of information on how and under what conditions continuous renal replacement therapy is discontinued. Design: Post hoc analysis of a prospective observational study. Setting. Fifty-four intensive care units in 23 countries. Patients: Five hundred twenty-nine patients (52.6%) who survived initial therapy among 1006 patients treated with continuous renal replacement therapy. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results., Three hundred thirteen patients were removed successfully from continuous renal replacement therapy and did not require any renal replacement therapy for at least 7 days and were classified as the ""success"" group and the rest (216 patients) were classified as the ""repeat-RRT"" (renal replacement therapy) group. Patients in the ""success"" group had lower hospital mortality (28.5% vs. 42.7%, p < .0001) compared with patients in the ""repeat-RRT"" group. They also had lower creatinine and urea concentrations and a higher urine output at the time of stopping continuous renal replacement therapy. Multivariate logistic regression analysis for successful discontinuation of continuous renal replacement therapy identified urine output (during the 24 hrs before stopping continuous renal replacement therapy: odds ratio, 1.078 per 100 mL/day increase) and creatinine (odds ratio, 0.996 per mu mol/L increase) as significant predictors of successful cessation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to predict successful discontinuation of continuous renal replacement therapy was 0.808 for urine output and 0.635 for creatinine. The predictive ability of urine output was negatively affected by the use of diuretics (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.671 with diuretics and 0.845 without diuretics). Conclusions. We report on the current practice of discontinuing continuous renal replacement therapy in a multinational setting. Urine output at the time of initial cessation (if continuous renal replacement therapy was the most important predictor of successful discontinuation, especially if occurring without the administration of diuretics. (Crit Care Med 2009; 37:2576-2582)

Lower Extremities Magnetic Resonance Angiography With Blood Pressure Cuff Compression: Quantitative Dynamic Analysis

Purpose: To quantitatively evaluate changes induced by the application of a femoral blood-pressure cuff (BPC) on run-off magnetic resonance angiography (MRA). which is a method generally previously proposed to reduce venous contamination in the leg. Materials and Methods: This study was Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA)- and Institutional Review Board (IRB)-compliant, We used time-resolved gradient-echo gadolinium (Gd)-enhanced MRA to measure BPC effects on arterial, venous, and soft-tissue enhancement. Seven healthy volunteers (six men) were studied with the BPC applied at the mid-femoral level unilaterally using a 1.5T MR system after intravenous injection of Gd-BOPTA. Different statistical tools were used such as the Wilcoxon signed rank test and a cubic smoothing spline fit. Results: We found that BPC application induces delayed venous filling (as previously described), but also induces significant decreases in arterial inflow, arterial enhancement, vascular-soft tissue contrast, and delayed peak enhancement (which have not been previously measured). Conclusion: The potential benefits from using a BPC for run-off MRA must be balanced against the potential pitfalls, elucidated by our findings.

Coding behavioural data for cladistic analysis: using dynamic homology without parsimony

Many of the controversies around the concept of homology rest on the subjectivity inherent to primary homology propositions. Dynamic homology partially solves this problem, but there has been up to now scant application of it outside of the molecular domain. This is probably because morphological and behavioural characters are rich in properties, connections and qualities, so that there is less space for conflicting character delimitations. Here we present a new method for the direct optimization of behavioural data, a method that relies on the richness of this database to delimit the characters, and on dynamic procedures to establish character state identity. We use between-species congruence in the data matrix and topological stability to choose the best cladogram. We test the methodology using sequences of predatory behaviour in a group of spiders that evolved the highly modified predatory technique of spitting glue onto prey. The cladogram recovered is fully compatible with previous analyses in the literature, and thus the method seems consistent. Besides the advantage of enhanced objectivity in character proposition, the new procedure allows the use of complex, context-dependent behavioural characters in an evolutionary framework, an important step towards the practical integration of the evolutionary and ecological perspectives on diversity. (C) The Willi Hennig Society 2010.

Electronic properties of liquid hydrogen fluoride: A sequential quantum mechanical/Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics approach

The electronic properties of liquid hydrogen fluoride (HF) were investigated by carrying out sequential quantum mechanics/Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics. The structure of the liquid is in good agreement with recent experimental information. Emphasis was placed on the analysis of polarisation effects, dynamic polarisability and electronic excitations in liquid HF. Our results indicate an increase in liquid phase of the dipole moment (similar to 0.5 D) and isotropic polarisability (5%) relative to their gas-phase values. Our best estimate for the first vertical excitation energy in liquid HF indicates a blue-shift of 0.4 +/- 0.2 eV relative to that of the gas-phase monomer (10.4 eV). (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influência do grau de hidrólise do poli(vinil álcool) nas propriedades físicas de filmes à base de blendas de gelatina e poli(vinil álcool) plastificados com glicerol

O objetivo deste trabalho foi o estudo do efeito do Grau de Hidrólise (GH) do poli(vinil álcool) (PVA) nas propriedades dos filmes à base de blendas de gelatina suína e PVA com dois GH. Os filmes foram produzidos com soluções com 2 g de macromoléculas/100 g de solução, contendo 23,1 g de PVA.100 g-1 de macromoléculas e 25 g de glicerol/100 g de macromoléculas. As propriedades mecânicas e térmicas, cor, opacidade, umidade e solubilidade, além de espectros de infravermelho com transformada de Fourier (FTIR) dos filmes, foram estudadas. As soluções foram analisadas por reometria dinâmica. Os filmes produzidos com o PVA de menor GH foram mais higroscópicos e mais solúveis. Mas o tipo de PVA não afetou a cor, afetando a opacidade e o brilho dos filmes. O PVA com maior GH proporcionou filmes mais resistentes, e o PVA de menor GH produziu filmes mais resistentes à tração, embora menos deformáveis na perfuração. O GH do PVA não afetou a temperatura de transição vítrea dos filmes, determinada na primeira varredura, mas a afetou na segunda varredura. Os resultados das análises de FTIR corroborraram com esses resultados. As propriedades viscoelásticas das soluções não foram afetadas pelo GH do PVA, muito possivelmente por se tratar de soluções diluídas.