Hitting and returning to rare events for all alpha-mixing processes

We prove that for any a-mixing stationary process the hitting time of any n-string A(n) converges, when suitably normalized, to an exponential law. We identify the normalization constant lambda(A(n)). A similar statement holds also for the return time. To establish this result we prove two other results of independent interest. First, we show a relation between the rescaled hitting time and the rescaled return time, generalizing a theorem of Haydn, Lacroix and Vaienti. Second, we show that for positive entropy systems, the probability of observing any n-string in n consecutive observations goes to zero as n goes to infinity. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Small rivers in the southwestern Amazon and their role in CO(2) outgassing

A recent estimate of CO(2) outgassing from Amazonian wetlands suggests that an order of magnitude more CO(2) leaves rivers through gas exchange with the atmosphere than is exported to the ocean as organic plus inorganic carbon. However, the contribution of smaller rivers is still poorly understood, mainly because of limitations in mapping their spatial extent. Considering that the largest extension of the Amazon River network is composed of small rivers, the authors` objective was to elucidate their role in air-water CO(2) exchange by developing a geographic information system ( GIS)- based model to calculate the surface area covered by rivers with channels less than 100 m wide, combined with estimated CO(2) outgassing rates at the Ji-Parana River basin, in the western Amazon. Estimated CO(2) outgassing was the main carbon export pathway for this river basin, totaling 289 Gg C yr(-1), about 2.4 times the amount of carbon exported as dissolved inorganic carbon ( 121 Gg C yr(-1)) and 1.6 times the dissolved organic carbon export ( 185 Gg C yr(-1)). The relationships established here between drainage area and channel width provide a new model for determining small river surface area, allowing regional extrapolations of air - water gas exchange. Applying this model to the entire Amazon River network of channels less than 100 m wide ( third to fifth order), the authors calculate that the surface area of small rivers is 0.3 +/- 0.05 million km(2), and it is potentially evading to the atmosphere 170 +/- 42 Tg C yr(-1) as CO(2). Therefore, these ecosystems play an important role in the regional carbon balance.

The accuracy of the Clock Drawing Test compared to that of standard screening tests for Alzheimer`s disease: results from a study of Brazilian elderly with heterogeneous educational backgrounds

Background: Although the Clock Drawing Test (CDT) is the second most used test in the world for the screening of dementia, there is still debate over its sensitivity specificity, application and interpretation in dementia diagnosis. This study has three main aims: to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the CDT in a sample composed of older adults with Alzheimer`s disease (AD) and normal controls; to compare CDT accuracy to the that of the Mini-mental State Examination (MMSE) and the Cambridge Cognitive Examination (CAMCOG), and to test whether the association of the MMSE with the CDT leads to higher or comparable accuracy as that reported for the CAMCOG. Methods: Cross-sectional assessment was carried out for 121 AD and 99 elderly controls with heterogeneous educational levels from a geriatric outpatient clinic who completed the Cambridge Examination for Mental Disorder of the Elderly (CAMDEX). The CDT was evaluated according to the Shulman, Mendez and Sunderland scales. Results: The CDT showed high sensitivity and specificity. There were significant correlations between the CDT and the MMSE (0.700-0.730; p < 0.001) and between the CDT and the CAMCOG (0.753-0.779; p < 0.001). The combination of the CDT with the MMSE improved sensitivity and specificity (SE = 89.2-90%; SP = 71.7-79.8%). Subgroup analysis indicated that for elderly people with lower education, sensitivity and specificity were both adequate and high. Conclusions: The CDT is a robust screening test when compared with the MMSE or the CAMCOG, independent of the scale used for its interpretation. The combination with the MMSE improves its performance significantly, becoming equivalent to the CAMCOG.

TOPOGRAPHIC REGISTERS OF PALEO-VALLEYS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN BRAZILIAN CONTINENTAL SHELF

The evolution of paleo-incised-valleys in the Sao Paulo State region of the southeastern Brazilian continental shelf is presented in this study in relation to the post Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sea-level rises based on the submarine topography modeled by a detailed Digital Elevation Model and evidences noted in high resolution seismic profiles. The hypothesis that has guided this study is that the set of paleo-valley characteristics (i.e. the fluvial parameters of modern coastal drainage systems, the topographical shape and dimensions of the valleys and of the subsurface channels) may indicate aspects of the relation between the influence of the fluvial and the eustatic variation regime in geomorphological-stratigraphic registers. Models described in the literature sustain the view that faster marine transgressions tend to increase erosion in estuaries, which may explain the lack of registers of paleo-drainage both in topography and the sub-surface in areas with wider shelves. On the other hand, on narrower shelves, with a higher slope angle, the transgression process can preserve, or even enhance, the incised valley registers during shoreface retreat. In the area studied, we observed that the dimensions and form of the continental shelf varies from the northern to the southern part of the area, affecting aspects of the geomorphological registers of the submerged incised valleys.

Improving Critical Thinking and Clinical Reasoning With a Continuing Education Course

Background: Continuing education courses related to critical thinking and clinical reasoning are needed to improve the accuracy of diagnosis. Method: This study evaluated a 4-day, 16-hour continuing education course conducted in Brazil. Thirty-nine nurses completed a pretest and a posttest consisting of two written case studies designed to measure the accuracy of nurses` diagnoses. Results: There were significant differences in accuracy from pretest to posttest for case 1 (p = .008) and case 2 (p = .042) and overall (p = .001). Conclusion: Continuing education courses should be implemented to improve the accuracy of nurses` diagnoses. J Contin Educ Nurs 2009;40(3):121-127.