Um modelo estocástico combinado de previsão sazonal para a precipitação no Brasil

Este artigo discute um modelo de previsão combinada para a realização de prognósticos climáticos na escala sazonal. Nele, previsões pontuais de modelos estocásticos são agregadas para obter as melhores projeções no tempo. Utilizam-se modelos estocásticos autoregressivos integrados a médias móveis, de suavização exponencial e previsões por análise de correlações canônicas. O controle de qualidade das previsões é feito através da análise dos resíduos e da avaliação do percentual de redução da variância não-explicada da modelagem combinada em relação às previsões dos modelos individuais. Exemplos da aplicação desses conceitos em modelos desenvolvidos no Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) mostram bons resultados e ilustram que as previsões do modelo combinado, superam na maior parte dos casos a de cada modelo componente, quando comparadas aos dados observados.

Long-term social recognition memory in adult male rats: factor analysis of the social and non-social behaviors

A modified version of the intruder-resident paradigm was used to investigate if social recognition memory lasts at least 24 h. One hundred and forty-six adult male Wistar rats were used. Independent groups of rats were exposed to an intruder for 0.083, 0.5, 2, 24, or 168 h and tested 24 h after the first encounter with the familiar or a different conspecific. Factor analysis was employed to identify associations between behaviors and treatments. Resident rats exhibited a 24-h social recognition memory, as indicated by a 3- to 5-fold decrease in social behaviors in the second encounter with the same conspecific compared to those observed for a different conspecific, when the duration of the first encounter was 2 h or longer. It was possible to distinguish between two different categories of social behaviors and their expression depended on the duration of the first encounter. Sniffing the anogenital area (49.9% of the social behaviors), sniffing the body (17.9%), sniffing the head (3%), and following the conspecific (3.1%), exhibited mostly by resident rats, characterized social investigation and revealed long-term social recognition memory. However, dominance (23.8%) and mild aggression (2.3%), exhibited by both resident and intruders, characterized social agonistic behaviors and were not affected by memory. Differently, sniffing the environment (76.8% of the non-social behaviors) and rearing (14.3%), both exhibited mostly by adult intruder rats, characterized non-social behaviors. Together, these results show that social recognition memory in rats may last at least 24 h after a 2-h or longer exposure to the conspecific.

Modelos de volatilidade estocástica em séries financeiras: uma aplicação para o IBOVESPA

Neste artigo apresentamos uma análise Bayesiana para o modelo de volatilidade estocástica (SV) e uma forma generalizada deste, cujo objetivo é estimar a volatilidade de séries temporais financeiras. Considerando alguns casos especiais dos modelos SV usamos algoritmos de Monte Carlo em Cadeias de Markov e o software WinBugs para obter sumários a posteriori para as diferentes formas de modelos SV. Introduzimos algumas técnicas Bayesianas de discriminação para a escolha do melhor modelo a ser usado para estimar as volatilidades e fazer previsões de séries financeiras. Um exemplo empírico de aplicação da metodologia é introduzido com a série financeira do IBOVESPA.

Análise de atitudes de professoras do ensino fundamental no que se refere à educação inclusiva

Este artigo, que tem como referência a teoria crítica, relata o resultado de uma pesquisa sobre atitudes em relação à educação inclusiva, realizada com doze professoras do 5º ano do ensino fundamental; dentre elas, seis tinham experiência de ter em sala de aula alunos com deficiência, e seis não tinham. A análise qualitativa dos dados decorrentes do levantamento realizado em seis escolas da rede municipal de Campo Grande (MS) demonstrou que, de modo geral, as professoras foram favoráveis à educação inclusiva. Contudo, ficou evidente a expressão de atitudes preconceituosas veladas ou explícitas no âmbito escolar. A formação para experiência com quem é "diferente" ainda encontra barreiras por conta do preconceito e da discriminação presentes nesta sociedade que tem como lógica uma "inclusão marginal". Em suas manifestações, apontaram dificuldades de trabalhar com alunos com deficiência intelectual severa; assinalaram que a responsabilidade de trabalhar sob a predominância da educação centrada no desempenho, com foco na inserção das pessoas no mercado de trabalho, gerava um "sentimento de impotência". Diante das contradições existentes, a educação inclusiva não deixa de evidenciar a presença das injustiças que ainda se apresentam no processo educativo. Apesar disso, foram indicados vários elementos favoráveis a essa forma de educação, que não é dissociada de movimentos sociais mais amplos.

Culicídeos em bromélias: diversidade de fauna segundo influência antrópica, litoral de São Paulo

OBJETIVO: Comparar a diversidade da fauna de culicídeos em bromélias de solo segundo ambientes urbano, periurbano e mata primitiva. MÉTODOS: O estudo foi realizado no município de Ilhabela, litoral norte do estado de São Paulo, em tanques de bromélias de ambientes urbano, periurbano e mata. Realizaram-se coletas de imaturos quinzenalmente, de março de 1998 a julho de 1999. A presença e freqüência de espécies nos diferentes ambientes foram comparadas com base em estimativas da diversidade para medir a riqueza, dominância e análise de variância (ANOVA). RESULTADOS: Coletaram-se 31.134 formas imaturas de mosquitos nas bromélias, distribuídas em sete gêneros e 37 espécies. O ambiente urbano registrou maior abundância, 14.575 indivíduos, seguido do periurbano com 10.987, e a mata, com o menor número de exemplares, 5.572. Foram coletadas 30 espécies no habitat urbano, 32 no periurbano e 33 na mata. As espécies dominantes foram Culex (Microculex) pleuristriatus nos ambientes urbano e periurbano, e Culex ocellatus na mata. De acordo com teste ANOVA a freqüência de mosquitos em bromélias não foi diferente entre os ambientes pesquisados (F=0,5564; p=0,5769). A diversidade de espécies na mata foi maior, e semelhante entre periurbano e urbano. CONCLUSÕES: A composição específica de culicídeos em bromélias de solo mostrou-se diversificada, sendo maior naquelas de ambiente de mata. As espécies dominantes foram Cx. (Mcx.) pleuristriatus e Cx. ocellatus.

A fuzzy reed-frost model for epidemic spreading

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization

Exact time-dependent solutions for a self-regulating gene

The exact time-dependent solution for the stochastic equations governing the behavior of a binary self-regulating gene is presented. Using the generating function technique to rephrase the master equations in terms of partial differential equations, we show that the model is totally integrable and the analytical solutions are the celebrated confluent Heun functions. Self-regulation plays a major role in the control of gene expression, and it is remarkable that such a microscopic model is completely integrable in terms of well-known complex functions.

Resprouting from roots in four Brazilian tree species

Previous studies pointed out that species richness and high density values within the Leguminosae in Brazilian forest fragments affected by fire could be due, at least partially, to the high incidence of root sprouting in this family. However, there are few Studies of the factors that induce root sprouting in woody plants after disturbance. We investigated the bud formation on root cuttings, and considered a man-made disturbance that isolates the root from the shoot apical dominance of three Leguminosae (Bauhinia forficata Link., Centrolobium tomentosum Guill. ex Benth, and Inga laurina (Sw.) Willd) and one Rutaceae (Esenbeckia febrifuga (St. Hit.) Juss. ex Mart.). All these species resprout frequently after fire. We also attempted to induce bud formation on root systems by removing the main trunk, girdling or sectioning the shallow lateral roots from forest tree species Esenbeckia febrifuga and Hymenaea courbaril L. We identified the origin of shoot primordia and their early development by fixing the samples in Karnovsky solution, dehydrating in ethyl alcohol series and embedding in plastic resin. Serial sections were cut on a rotary microtome and stained with toluidine blue O. Permanent slides were mounted in synthetic resin. We observed different modes of bud origin on root cuttings: close to the vascular cambium (C. tomentosum), from the callus (B. forficata and E febrifuga) and from the phloematic parenchyma proliferation (L laurina). Fragments of B. forficala root bark were also capable of forming reparative buds from healing phellogen formed in callus in the bark's inner side. In the attempt of bud induction on root systems, Hymenaea courbaril did not respond to any of the induction tests, probably because of plant age. However, Esenbeckia febrifuga roots formed suckers when the main trunk was removed or their roots were sectioned and isolated from the original plant. We experimentally demonstrated the ability of four tree species to resprout from roots after disturbance. Our results suggest that the release of apical dominance enables root resprouting in the studied species. Rev. Biol. Trop. 57 (3): 789-800. Epub 2009 September 30.

The Relationship between Population Structure and Aluminum Tolerance in Cultivated Sorghum

Background: Acid soils comprise up to 50% of the world's arable lands and in these areas aluminum (Al) toxicity impairs root growth, strongly limiting crop yield. Food security is thereby compromised in many developing countries located in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. In sorghum, SbMATE, an Al-activated citrate transporter, underlies the Alt(SB) locus on chromosome 3 and confers Al tolerance via Al-activated root citrate release. Methodology: Population structure was studied in 254 sorghum accessions representative of the diversity present in cultivated sorghums. Al tolerance was assessed as the degree of root growth inhibition in nutrient solution containing Al. A genetic analysis based on markers flanking Alt(SB) and SbMATE expression was undertaken to assess a possible role for Alt(SB) in Al tolerant accessions. In addition, the mode of gene action was estimated concerning the Al tolerance trait. Comparisons between models that include population structure were applied to assess the importance of each subpopulation to Al tolerance. Conclusion/Significance: Six subpopulations were revealed featuring specific racial and geographic origins. Al tolerance was found to be rather rare and present primarily in guinea and to lesser extent in caudatum subpopulations. Alt(SB) was found to play a role in Al tolerance in most of the Al tolerant accessions. A striking variation was observed in the mode of gene action for the Al tolerance trait, which ranged from almost complete recessivity to near complete dominance, with a higher frequency of partially recessive sources of Al tolerance. A possible interpretation of our results concerning the origin and evolution of Al tolerance in cultivated sorghum is discussed. This study demonstrates the importance of deeply exploring the crop diversity reservoir both for a comprehensive view of the dynamics underlying the distribution and function of Al tolerance genes and to design efficient molecular breeding strategies aimed at enhancing Al tolerance.

A spatial approach for the epidemiology of antibiotic use and resistance in community-based studies: the emergence of urban clusters of Escherichia coli quinolone resistance in Sao Paulo, Brasil

Background: Population antimicrobial use may influence resistance emergence. Resistance is an ecological phenomenon due to potential transmissibility. We investigated spatial and temporal patterns of ciprofloxacin (CIP) population consumption related to E. coli resistance emergence and dissemination in a major Brazilian city. A total of 4,372 urinary tract infection E. coli cases, with 723 CIP resistant, were identified in 2002 from two outpatient centres. Cases were address geocoded in a digital map. Raw CIP consumption data was transformed into usage density in DDDs by CIP selling points influence zones determination. A stochastic model coupled with a Geographical Information System was applied for relating resistance and usage density and for detecting city areas of high/low resistance risk. Results: E. coli CIP resistant cluster emergence was detected and significantly related to usage density at a level of 5 to 9 CIP DDDs. There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. Conclusions: There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. The usage density of 5-9 CIP DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants within the same influence zone was the resistance triggering level. This level led to E. coli resistance clustering, proving that individual resistance emergence and dissemination was affected by antimicrobial population consumption.

Allosteric Control of Gating Mechanisms Revisited: The Large Conductance Ca(2+)-Activated K(+) Channel

Large-conductance Ca(2+)-activated K(+) channels (BK) play a fundamental role in modulating membrane potential in many cell types. The gating of BK channels and its modulation by Ca(2+) and voltage has been the subject of intensive research over almost three decades, yielding several of the most complicated kinetic mechanisms ever proposed. A large number of open and closed states disposed, respectively, in two planes, named tiers, characterize these mechanisms. Transitions between states in the same plane are cooperative and modulated by Ca(2+). Transitions across planes are highly concerted and voltage-dependent. Here we reexamine the validity of the two-tiered hypothesis by restricting attention to the modulation by Ca(2+). Large single channel data sets at five Ca(2+) concentrations were simultaneously analyzed from a Bayesian perspective by using hidden Markov models and Markov-chain Monte Carlo stochastic integration techniques. Our results support a dramatic reduction in model complexity, favoring a simple mechanism derived from the Monod-Wyman-Changeux allosteric model for homotetramers, able to explain the Ca(2+) modulation of the gating process. This model differs from the standard Monod-Wyman-Changeux scheme in that one distinguishes when two Ca(2+) ions are bound to adjacent or diagonal subunits of the tetramer.

Association of SNPs on CAPN1 and CAST genes with tenderness in Nellore cattle

We examined whether single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the calpain (CAPN) and calpastatin (CAST) genes, described from Bos primigenius taurus, are polymorphic in Nellore cattle. We also looked for a possible association of linkage disequilibrium of this polymorphism with tenderness of the longissimus dorsi muscle after 7, 14 and 21 days of postmortem aging in 638 purebred Nellore bulls. Meat tenderness was measured as Warner-Bratzler shear force. Additive and dominance effects were tested for SNPs of the three genotypic classes; the substitution effect was tested for SNPs with missing genotypic classes. Genotypic and gene frequencies were also calculated for the different SNPs. An increase in tenderness was observed from 7 to 21 days; the average values for shear force at 7, 14 and 21 days of aging were 5.92 +/- 0.06, 4.92 +/- 0.05, and 4.38 +/- 0.04 kg, respectively. All markers showed polymorphism, but there was no CC genotype for CAPN316, and few animals showed the AA genotype for CAPN530. The alleles CAPN4751, UOGCAST1, and WSUCAST were found to have additive and dominance effects for shear force at 7, 14 and 21 days, while CAPN316 showed a substitution effect for shear force at 7 and 21 days. An additive-by-additive epistatic interaction was observed between CAPN4751 and markers on the CAST gene. In conclusion, these markers should be considered for use in breeding programs.

Physical and dynamical characterization of (5201) Ferraz-Mello, a possible extinct Jupiter family comet

Context. The subject of asteroids in cometary orbits (ACOs) has been of growing interest lately. These objects have the orbital characteristics typical of comets, but are asteroidal in appearance, i.e., show no signs of a coma at any part of their orbits. At least a fraction of these objects are thought to be comets that have either exhausted all their volatile content or developed a refractory crust that prevents sublimation. In particular, the asteroid ( 5201) Ferraz-Mello has, since its discovery, been suspected to be an extinct Jupiter family comet due to the peculiar nature of its orbit. Aims. The aim of this work is to put constraints on the possible origin of ( 5201) Ferraz-Mello by means of spectroscopic characterization and a study of the dynamics of this asteroid. Methods. We used the SOAR Optical Imager (SOI) to obtain observations of ( 5201) Ferraz-Mello using four SDSS filters. These observations were compared to asteroids listed in the Sloan Moving objects catalog and also to photometry of cometary nuclei, Centaurs, and TNOs. The orbital evolution of ( 5201) Ferraz-Mello and of a sample of asteroids and comets that are close to that object in the a - e plane were simulated using a pure N-body code for 4 000 years forward and 4 000 years backward in time. Results. The reflectance spectrum obtained from its colors in the SDSS system is unusual, with a steep spectral gradient that is comparable to TNOs and Centaurs, but with an increase in the reflectance in the g band that is not common in those populations. A similar behavior is seen in cometary nuclei that were observed in the presence of a faint dust coma. The dynamical results confirm the very chaotic evolution found previously and its dynamical similarity to the chaotic evolution of some comets. The asteroid is situated in the very stochastic layer at the border of the 2/1 resonance, and it has a very short Lyapunov time ( 30 - 40) years. Together, the spectral characteristcs and the dynamical evolution suggest that ( 5201) Ferraz-Mello is a dormant or extinct comet.

Phylogenetic nomenclature and evolution of mannose-binding lectin (MBL2) haplotypes

Background: Polymorphisms of the mannose-binding lectin gene (MBL2) affect the concentration and functional efficiency of the protein. We recently used haplotype-specific sequencing to identify 23 MBL2 haplotypes, associated with enhanced susceptibility to several diseases. Results: In this work, we applied the same method in 288 and 470 chromosomes from Gabonese and European adults, respectively, and found three new haplotypes in the last group. We propose a phylogenetic nomenclature to standardize MBL2 studies and found two major phylogenetic branches due to six strongly linked polymorphisms associated with high MBL production. They presented high Fst values and were imbedded in regions with high nucleotide diversity and significant Tajima's D values. Compared to others using small sample sizes and unphased genotypic data, we found differences in haplotyping, frequency estimation, Fu and Li's D* and Fst results. Conclusion: Using extensive testing for selective neutrality, we confirmed that stochastic evolutionary factors have had a major role in shaping this polymorphic gene worldwide.

Phase-disorder-induced double resonance of neuronal activity

It is well known that resonance can be induced by external noise or diversity. Here we show that resonance can be induced even by a phase disorder in coupled excitable neurons with subthreshold activity. In contrast to the case of identical phase, we find that phase disorder plays an active role in enhancing neuronal activity. We also uncover that the presence of phase disorder can induce a double resonance phenomenon: phase disorder and coupling strength both can enhance neuronal firing activity. A physical theory is formulated to help understand the mechanism behind this double resonance phenomenon.