The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

WOOD DENSITY VARIATION AND TREE RING DEMARCATION IN Gmelina arborea TREES USING X-RAY DENSITOMETRY

Due to its relationship with other properties, wood density is the main wood quality parameter. Modern, accurate methods - such as X-ray densitometry - are applied to determine the spatial distribution of density in wood sections and to evaluate wood quality. The objectives of this study were to determinate the influence of growing conditions on wood density variation and tree ring demarcation of gmelina trees from fast growing plantations in Costa Rica. The wood density was determined by X-ray densitometry method. Wood samples were cut from gmelina trees and were exposed to low X-rays. The radiographic films were developed and scanned using a 256 gray scale with 1000 dpi resolution and the wood density was determined by CRAD and CERD software. The results showed tree-ring boundaries were distinctly delimited in trees growing in site with rainfall lower than 25 10 mm/year. It was demonstrated that tree age, climatic conditions and management of plantation affects wood density and its variability. The specific effect of variables on wood density was quantified by for multiple regression method. It was determined that tree year explained 25.8% of the total variation of density and 19.9% were caused by climatic condition where the tree growing. Wood density was less affected by the intensity of forest management with 5.9% of total variation.

A spatial approach for the epidemiology of antibiotic use and resistance in community-based studies: the emergence of urban clusters of Escherichia coli quinolone resistance in Sao Paulo, Brasil

Background: Population antimicrobial use may influence resistance emergence. Resistance is an ecological phenomenon due to potential transmissibility. We investigated spatial and temporal patterns of ciprofloxacin (CIP) population consumption related to E. coli resistance emergence and dissemination in a major Brazilian city. A total of 4,372 urinary tract infection E. coli cases, with 723 CIP resistant, were identified in 2002 from two outpatient centres. Cases were address geocoded in a digital map. Raw CIP consumption data was transformed into usage density in DDDs by CIP selling points influence zones determination. A stochastic model coupled with a Geographical Information System was applied for relating resistance and usage density and for detecting city areas of high/low resistance risk. Results: E. coli CIP resistant cluster emergence was detected and significantly related to usage density at a level of 5 to 9 CIP DDDs. There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. Conclusions: There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. The usage density of 5-9 CIP DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants within the same influence zone was the resistance triggering level. This level led to E. coli resistance clustering, proving that individual resistance emergence and dissemination was affected by antimicrobial population consumption.

Genetic variability of the Amazon River prawn Macrobrachium amazonicum (Decapoda, Caridea, Palaemonidae)

The freshwater prawn Macrobrachium amazonicum is widely distributed in South America, and occupies habitats with a wide range of salinities. Several investigations have revealed the existence of wide intraspecific variability among different populations, although the understanding of this variability is still fragmentary and incomplete. We compared and characterized inland and coastal populations of M. amazonicum from Brazil, using molecular data (16S and COI mtDNA) to describe the degree of variability, structure, and relationships among them. Genetic divergence rates among populations showed variability at the intraspecific level. All the analyses evidenced significant genetic divergence among populations, structuring them in three groups: I-inland waters of the Amazonian Hydrographic Region (HR); II-Parana/Paraguay HR; and III-coastal systems of northern and northeastern Brazil. Phylogenetic reconstructions revealed that the populations form a single monophyletic clade, which supports their characterization as a single species. Clade I was a sister clade of that formed by clades II and III, which were themselves sister clades. Populations from Sertaozinho/Miguelopolis and Avare, introduced into the state of Sao Paulo, may have originated from natural populations in the states of Mato Grosso do Sul and Para, respectively. Geographical isolation probably contributed to the observed variation, and if this isolation continues. M. amazonicum may undergo speciation within its broad geographical distribution. The sequences obtained here can be used as name-tags for population identification, and the DNA barcodes are useful to identify the origin of specimens used in different freshwater-prawn cultures or introduced populations of unknown origin.

Spatial patterns of malaria in a land reform colonization project, Juruena municipality, Mato Grosso, Brazil

Background: In Brazil, 99% of malaria cases are concentrated in the Amazon, and malaria's spatial distribution is commonly associated with socio-environmental conditions on a fine landscape scale. In this study, the spatial patterns of malaria and its determinants in a rural settlement of the Brazilian agricultural reform programme called ""Vale do Amanhecer"" in the northern Mato Grosso state were analysed. Methods: In a fine-scaled, exploratory ecological study, geocoded notification forms corresponding to malaria cases from 2005 were compared with spectral indices, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the third component of the Tasseled Cap Transformation (TC_3) and thematic layers, derived from the visual interpretation of multispectral TM-Landsat 5 imagery and the application of GIS distance operators. Results: Of a total of 336 malaria cases, 102 (30.36%) were caused by Plasmodium falciparum and 174 (51.79%) by Plasmodium vivax. Of all the cases, 37.6% (133 cases) were from residents of a unique road. In total, 276 cases were reported for the southern part of the settlement, where the population density is higher, with notification rates higher than 10 cases per household. The local landscape mostly consists of open areas (38.79 km(2)). Training forest occupied 27.34 km(2) and midsize vegetation 7.01 km(2). Most domiciles with more than five notified malaria cases were located near areas with high NDVI values. Most domiciles (41.78%) and malaria cases (44.94%) were concentrated in areas with intermediate values of the TC_3, a spectral index representing surface and vegetation humidity. Conclusions: Environmental factors and their alteration are associated with the occurrence and spatial distribution of malaria cases in rural settlements.

The variability and predictors of quality of AIDS care services in Brazil

Background: Since establishing universal free access to antiretroviral therapy in 1996, the Brazilian Health System has increased the number of centers providing HIV/AIDS outpatient care from 33 to 540. There had been no formal monitoring of the quality of these services until a survey of 336 AIDS health centers across 7 Brazilian states was undertaken in 2002. Managers of the services were asked to assess their clinics according to parameters of service inputs and service delivery processes. This report analyzes the survey results and identifies predictors of the overall quality of service delivery. Methods: The survey involved completion of a multiple-choice questionnaire comprising 107 parameters of service inputs and processes of delivering care, with responses assessed according to their likely impact on service quality using a 3-point scale. K-means clustering was used to group these services according to their scored responses. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of high service quality. Results: The questionnaire was completed by 95.8% (322) of the managers of the sites surveyed. Most sites scored about 50% of the benchmark expectation. K-means clustering analysis identified four quality levels within which services could be grouped: 76 services (24%) were classed as level 1 (best), 53 (16%) as level 2 (medium), 113 (35%) as level 3 (poor), and 80 (25%) as level 4 (very poor). Parameters of service delivery processes were more important than those relating to service inputs for determining the quality classification. Predictors of quality services included larger care sites, specialization for HIV/AIDS, and location within large municipalities. Conclusion: The survey demonstrated highly variable levels of HIV/AIDS service quality across the sites. Many sites were found to have deficiencies in the processes of service delivery processes that could benefit from quality improvement initiatives. These findings could have implications for how HIV/AIDS services are planned in Brazil to achieve quality standards, such as for where service sites should be located, their size and staffing requirements. A set of service delivery indicators has been identified that could be used for routine monitoring of HIV/AIDS service delivery for HIV/AIDS in Brazil (and potentially in other similar settings).

Variability in Estrogen-Metabolizing Genes and Their Association with Genomic Instability in Untreated Breast Cancer Patients and Healthy Women

In the present study, we investigated the relationship between polymorphisms in the estrogen-metabolizing genes CYP17, CYP1B1, CYP1A1, and COMT and genomic instability in the peripheral blood lymphocytes of 62 BC patients and 62 controls considering that increased or prolonged exposure to estrogen can damage the DNA molecule and increase the genomic instability process in breast tissue. Our data demonstrated increased genomic instability in BC patients and that individuals with higher frequencies of MN exhibited higher risk to BC when belonging Val/Met genotype of the COMT gene. We also observed that CYP17 and CYP1A1 polymorphisms can modify the risk to BC depending on the menopause status. We can conclude that the genetic background in estrogen metabolism pathway can modulate chromosome damage in healthy controls and patients and thereby influence the risk to BC. These findings suggest the importance to ally biomarkers of susceptibility and effects to estimate risk groups.

A New Mouse Model for Marfan Syndrome Presents Phenotypic Variability Associated with the Genetic Background and Overall Levels of Fbn1 Expression

Marfan syndrome is an autosomal dominant disease of connective tissue caused by mutations in the fibrillin-1 encoding gene FBN1. Patients present cardiovascular, ocular and skeletal manifestations, and although being fully penetrant, MFS is characterized by a wide clinical variability both within and between families. Here we describe a new mouse model of MFS that recapitulates the clinical heterogeneity of the syndrome in humans. Heterozygotes for the mutant Fbn1 allele mg Delta(loxPneo), carrying the same internal deletion of exons 19-24 as the mg Delta mouse model, present defective microfibrillar deposition, emphysema, deterioration of aortic wall and kyphosis. However, the onset of a clinical phenotypes is earlier in the 129/Sv than in C57BL/6 background, indicating the existence of genetic modifiers of MFS between these two mouse strains. In addition, we characterized a wide clinical variability within the 129/Sv congenic heterozygotes, suggesting involvement of epigenetic factors in disease severity. Finally, we show a strong negative correlation between overall levels of Fbn1 expression and the severity of the phenotypes, corroborating the suggested protective role of normal fibrillin-1 in MFS pathogenesis, and supporting the development of therapies based on increasing Fbn1 expression.

Observational evidences on the modulation of the South American Low Level Jet east of the Andes according the ENSO variability

The differences on the phase and wavelength of the quasi-stationary waves over the South America generated by El Nino (EN) and La Nina (LN) events seem to affect the daily evolution of the South American Low Level Jet east of the Andes (SALLJ). For the austral summer period of 1977 2004 the SALLJ episodes detected according to Bonner criterion 1 show normal to above-normal frequency in EN years, and in LN years the episodes show normal to below-normal frequency. During EN and LN years the SALLJ episodes were associated with positive rainfall anomalies over the La Plata Basin, but more intense during LN years. During EN years the increase in the SALLJ cases were associated to intensification of the Subtropical Jet (SJ) around 30 degrees S and positive Sea Level Pressure (SLP) anomalies over the western equatorial Atlantic and tropical South America, particularly over central Brazil. This favored the intensification of the northeasterly trade winds over the northern continent and it channeled by the Andes mountain to the La Plata Basin region where negative SLP are found. The SALLJ cases identified during the LN events were weaker and less frequent when compared to those for EN years. In this case the SJ was weaker than in EN years and the negative SLP anomalies over the tropical continent contributed to the inversion of the northeasterly trade winds. Also a southerly flow anomaly was generated by the geostrophic balance due to the anomalous blocking over southeast Pacific and the intense cyclonic transient over the southern tip of South America. As result the warm tropical air brought by the SALLJ encounters the cold extratropical air from the southerly winds over the La Plata basin. This configuration can increase the conditional instability over the La Plata basin and may explain the more intense positive rainfall anomalies in SALLJ cases during LN years than in EN years.

High spatial resolution spectroscopy of W51IRS 2E and IRS 2W: Two very massive young stars in early formation stages

We present K-band spectra of the near infrared counterparts to IRS 2E and IRS 2W which is associated with the ultracompact H II region W51d, both of them embedded sources in the Galactic compact H II region W51 IRS 2. The high spatial resolution observations were obtained with the laser guide star facility and Near-infrared Integral Field Spectrograph (NIFS) mounted at the Gemini-North observatory. The spectrum of the ionizing source of W51d shows the photospheric features N III ( 21155 angstrom) in emission and He II ( 21897 angstrom) in absorption which lead us to classify it as a young O3 type star. We detected CO overtone in emission at 23000 angstrom in the spectrum of IRS 2E, suggesting that it is a massive young object still surrounded by an accretion disk, probably transitioning from the hot core phase to an ultracompact H II region.

Photometric variability of the Be star CoRoT-ID 102761769

Context. Classical Be stars are rapid rotators of spectral type late O to early A and luminosity class V-III, which exhibit Balmer emission lines and often a near infrared excess originating in an equatorially concentrated circumstellar envelope, both produced by sporadic mass ejection episodes. The causes of the abnormal mass loss (the so-called Be phenomenon) are as yet unknown. Aims. For the first time, we can now study in detail Be stars outside the Earth's atmosphere with sufficient temporal resolution. We investigate the variability of the Be Star CoRoT-ID 102761769 observed with the CoRoT satellite in the exoplanet field during the initial run. Methods. One low-resolution spectrum of the star was obtained with the INT telescope at the Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos. A time series analysis was performed using both cleanest and singular spectrum analysis algorithms to the CoRoT light curve. To identify the pulsation modes of the observed frequencies, we computed a set of models representative of CoRoT-ID 102761769 by varying its main physical parameters inside the uncertainties discussed. Results. We found two close frequencies related to the star. They are 2.465 c d(-1) (28.5 mu Hz) and 2.441 c d(-1) (28.2 mu Hz). The precision to which those frequencies were found is 0.018 c d(-1) (0.2 mu Hz). The projected stellar rotation was estimated to be 120 km s(-1) from the Fourier transform of spectral lines. If CoRoT-ID 102761769 is a typical Galactic Be star it rotates near the critical velocity. The critical rotation frequency of a typical B5-6 star is about 3.5 c d(-1) (40.5 mu Hz), which implies that the above frequencies are really caused by stellar pulsations rather than star's rotation.

Cyclic variability of the circumstellar disk of the Be star zeta Tauri II. Testing the 2D global disk oscillation model

Context. About 2/3 of the Be stars present the so-called V/R variations, a phenomenon characterized by the quasi-cyclic variation in the ratio between the violet and red emission peaks of the HI emission lines. These variations are generally explained by global oscillations in the circumstellar disk forming a one-armed spiral density pattern that precesses around the star with a period of a few years. Aims. This paper presents self-consistent models of polarimetric, photometric, spectrophotometric, and interferometric observations of the classical Be star zeta Tauri. The primary goal is to conduct a critical quantitative test of the global oscillation scenario. Methods. Detailed three-dimensional, NLTE radiative transfer calculations were carried out using the radiative transfer code HDUST. The most up-to-date research on Be stars was used as input for the code in order to include a physically realistic description for the central star and the circumstellar disk. The model adopts a rotationally deformed, gravity darkened central star, surrounded by a disk whose unperturbed state is given by a steady-state viscous decretion disk model. It is further assumed that this disk is in vertical hydrostatic equilibrium. Results. By adopting a viscous decretion disk model for zeta Tauri and a rigorous solution of the radiative transfer, a very good fit of the time-average properties of the disk was obtained. This provides strong theoretical evidence that the viscous decretion disk model is the mechanism responsible for disk formation. The global oscillation model successfully fitted spatially resolved VLTI/AMBER observations and the temporal V/R variations in the H alpha and Br gamma lines. This result convincingly demonstrates that the oscillation pattern in the disk is a one-armed spiral. Possible model shortcomings, as well as suggestions for future improvements, are also discussed.

Spatial patterns in the brood combs of Nannotrigona testaceicornis (Hymenoptera: Meliponinae): male clusters

Genetic models of sex and caste determination in eusocial stingless bees suggest specific patterns of male, worker and gyne cell distribution in the brood comb. Conflict between queen and laying workers over male parentage and center-periphery gradients of conditions, such as food and temperature, could also contribute to non-random spatial configuration. We converted the positions of the hexagonal cells in a brood comb to Cartesian coordinates, labeled by sex or caste of the individuals inside. To detect and locate clustered patterns, the mapped brood combs were evaluated by indexes of dispersion (MMC, mean distance of cells of a given category from their centroid) and eccentricity (DMB, distance between this centroid and the overall brood comb centroid) that we developed. After randomizing the labels and recalculating the indexes, we calculated probabilities that the original values had been generated by chance. We created sets of binary brood combs in which males were aggregated, regularly or randomly distributed among females. These stylized maps were used to describe the power of MMC and DMB, and they were applied to evaluate the male distribution in the sampled Nannotrigona testaceicornis brood combs. MMC was very sensitive to slight deviations from a perfectly rounded clump; DMB detected any asymmetry in the location of these compact to fuzzy clusters. Six of the 82 brood combs of N. testaceicornis that we analyzed had more than nine males, distributed according to variations in spatial patterns, as indicated by the two indexes.

Genetic variability and natural selection at the ligand domain of the Duffy binding protein in brazilian Plasmodium vivax populations

Background: Plasmodium vivax malaria is a major public health challenge in Latin America, Asia and Oceania, with 130-435 million clinical cases per year worldwide. Invasion of host blood cells by P. vivax mainly depends on a type I membrane protein called Duffy binding protein (PvDBP). The erythrocyte-binding motif of PvDBP is a 170 amino-acid stretch located in its cysteine-rich region II (PvDBP(II)), which is the most variable segment of the protein. Methods: To test whether diversifying natural selection has shaped the nucleotide diversity of PvDBP(II) in Brazilian populations, this region was sequenced in 122 isolates from six different geographic areas. A Bayesian method was applied to test for the action of natural selection under a population genetic model that incorporates recombination. The analysis was integrated with a structural model of PvDBP(II), and T-and B-cell epitopes were localized on the 3-D structure. Results: The results suggest that: (i) recombination plays an important role in determining the haplotype structure of PvDBP(II), and (ii) PvDBP(II) appears to contain neutrally evolving codons as well as codons evolving under natural selection. Diversifying selection preferentially acts on sites identified as epitopes, particularly on amino acid residues 417, 419, and 424, which show strong linkage disequilibrium. Conclusions: This study shows that some polymorphisms of PvDBP(II) are present near the erythrocyte-binding domain and might serve to elude antibodies that inhibit cell invasion. Therefore, these polymorphisms should be taken into account when designing vaccines aimed at eliciting antibodies to inhibit erythrocyte invasion.

Systematic Management of Variability in UML-based Software Product Lines

This paper presents SMarty, a variability management approach for UML-based software product lines (PL). SMarty is supported by a UML profile, the SMartyProfile, and a process for managing variabilities, the SMartyProcess. SMartyProfile aims at representing variabilities, variation points, and variants in UML models by applying a set of stereotypes. SMartyProcess consists of a set of activities that is systematically executed to trace, identify, and control variabilities in a PL based on SMarty. It also identifies variability implementation mechanisms and analyzes specific product configurations. In addition, a more comprehensive application of SMarty is presented using SEI's Arcade Game Maker PL. An evaluation of SMarty and related work are discussed.