155 resultados para Reliability, Failure Distribution Function, Hazard Rate, Exponential Distribution


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Although neurohumoral excitation is the hallmark of heart failure (HF), the mechanisms underlying this alteration are not entirely known. Abnormalities in several systems contribute to neurohumoral excitation in HF, including arterial and cardiopulmonary baroreceptors, central and peripheral chemoreceptors, cardiac chemoreceptors, and central nervous system abnormalities. Exercise intolerance is characteristic of chronic HF, and growing evidence strongly suggests that exercise limitation in patients with chronic HF is not due to elevated filling pressures or inadequate cardiac output during exercise, but instead due to skeletal myopathy. Several lines of evidence suggest that sympathetic excitation contributes to the skeletal myopathy of HF, since sympathetic activity mediates vasoconstriction at rest and during exercise likely restrains muscle blood flow, arteriolar dilatation, and capillary recruitment, leading to underperfused areas of working muscle, and areas of muscle ischemia, release of reactive oxygen species (ROS), and inflammation. Although controversial, either unmyelinated, metabolite-sensitive afferent fibers, and/or myelinated, mechanosensitive afferent fibers in skeletal muscle underlie the exaggerated sympathetic activity in HF. Exercise training has emerged as a unique non-pharmacological strategy for the treatment of HF. Regular exercise improves functional capacity and quality of life, and perhaps prognosis in chronic HF patients. Recent studies have provided convincing evidence that these benefits in chronic HF patients are mediated by significant reduction in central sympathetic outflow as a consequence of improvement in arterial and chemoreflex controls, and correction of central nervous system abnormalities, and increase in peripheral blood flow with reduction in cytokines and increase in mass muscle.

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The power loss reduction in distribution systems (DSs) is a nonlinear and multiobjective problem. Service restoration in DSs is even computationally hard since it additionally requires a solution in real-time. Both DS problems are computationally complex. For large-scale networks, the usual problem formulation has thousands of constraint equations. The node-depth encoding (NDE) enables a modeling of DSs problems that eliminates several constraint equations from the usual formulation, making the problem solution simpler. On the other hand, a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (EA) based on subpopulation tables adequately models several objectives and constraints, enabling a better exploration of the search space. The combination of the multiobjective EA with NDE (MEAN) results in the proposed approach for solving DSs problems for large-scale networks. Simulation results have shown the MEAN is able to find adequate restoration plans for a real DS with 3860 buses and 632 switches in a running time of 0.68 s. Moreover, the MEAN has shown a sublinear running time in function of the system size. Tests with networks ranging from 632 to 5166 switches indicate that the MEAN can find network configurations corresponding to a power loss reduction of 27.64% for very large networks requiring relatively low running time.

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This paper describes the development of an optimization model for the management and operation of a large-scale, multireservoir water supply distribution system with preemptive priorities. The model considers multiobjectives and hedging rules. During periods of drought, when water supply is insufficient to meet the planned demand, appropriate rationing factors are applied to reduce water supply. In this paper, a water distribution system is formulated as a network and solved by the GAMS modeling system for mathematical programming and optimization. A user-friendly interface is developed to facilitate the manipulation of data and to generate graphs and tables for decision makers. The optimization model and its interface form a decision support system (DSS), which can be used to configure a water distribution system to facilitate capacity expansion and reliability studies. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the utility and versatility of the developed DSS under different supply and demand scenarios, including applications to one of the largest water supply systems in the world, the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area Water Supply Distribution System in Brazil.

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A procedure is proposed for the determination of the residence time distribution (RTD) of curved tubes taking into account the non-ideal detection of the tracer. The procedure was applied to two holding tubes used for milk pasteurization in laboratory scale. Experimental data was obtained using an ionic tracer. The signal distortion caused by the detection system was considerable because of the short residence time. Four RTD models, namely axial dispersion, extended tanks in series, generalized convection and PER + CSTR association, were adjusted after convolution with the E-curve of the detection system. The generalized convection model provided the best fit because it could better represent the tail on the tracer concentration curve that is Caused by the laminar velocity profile and the recirculation regions. Adjusted model parameters were well cot-related with the now rate. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Background: The presence of the periodontal ligament (PDL) makes it possible to absorb and distribute loads produced during masticatory function and other tooth contacts into the alveolar process via the alveolar bone proper. However, several factors affect the integrity of periodontal structures causing the destruction of the connective matrix and cells, the loss of fibrous attachment, and the resorption of alveolar bone. Methods: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the stress distribution by finite element analysis in a PDL in three-dimensional models of the upper central incisor under three different load conditions: 100 N occlusal loading at 45 degrees (model 1: masticatory load); 500 N at the incisal edge at 45 degrees (model 2: parafunctional habit); and 800 N at the buccal surface at 90 degrees (model 3: trauma case). The models were built from computed tomography scans. Results: The stress distribution was quite different among the models. The most significant values (harmful) of tensile and compressive stresses were observed in models 2 and 3, with similarly distinct patterns of stress distributions along the PDL. Tensile stresses were observed along the internal and external aspects of the PDL, mostly at the cervical and middle thirds. Conclusions: The stress generation in these models may affect the integrity of periodontal structures. A better understanding of the biomechanical behavior of the PDL under physiologic and traumatic loading conditions might enhance the understanding of the biologic reaction of the PDL in health and disease. J Periodontol 2009;80:1859-1867.

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A deterministic mathematical model for steady-state unidirectional solidification is proposed to predict the columnar-to-equiaxed transition. In the model, which is an extension to the classic model proposed by Hunt [Hunt JD. Mater Sci Eng 1984;65:75], equiaxed grains nucleate according to either a normal or a log-normal distribution of nucleation undercoolings. Growth maps are constructed, indicating either columnar or equiaxed solidification as a function of the velocity of isotherms and temperature gradient. The fields A columnar and equiaxed growth change significantly with the spread of the nucleation undercooling distribution. Increasing the spread Favors columnar solidification if the dimensionless velocity of the isotherms is larger than 1. For a velocity less than 1, however, equiaxed solidification is initially favored, but columnar solidification is enhanced for a larger increase in the spread. This behavior was confirmed by a stochastic model, which showed that an increase in the distribution spread Could change the grain structure from completely columnar to 50% columnar grains. (c) 2008 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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In a sample of censored survival times, the presence of an immune proportion of individuals who are not subject to death, failure or relapse, may be indicated by a relatively high number of individuals with large censored survival times. In this paper the generalized log-gamma model is modified for the possibility that long-term survivors may be present in the data. The model attempts to separately estimate the effects of covariates on the surviving fraction, that is, the proportion of the population for which the event never occurs. The logistic function is used for the regression model of the surviving fraction. Inference for the model parameters is considered via maximum likelihood. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. Finally, a data set from the medical area is analyzed under the log-gamma generalized mixture model. A residual analysis is performed in order to select an appropriate model.

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Hydrological models featuring root water uptake usually do not include compensation mechanisms such that reductions in uptake from dry layers are compensated by an increase in uptake from wetter layers. We developed a physically based root water uptake model with an implicit compensation mechanism. Based on an expression for the matric flux potential (M) as a function of the distance to the root, and assuming a depth-independent value of M at the root surface, uptake per layer is shown to be a function of layer bulk M, root surface M, and a weighting factor that depends on root length density and root radius. Actual transpiration can be calculated from the sum of layer uptake rates. The proposed reduction function (PRF) was built into the SWAP model, and predictions were compared to those made with the Feddes reduction function (FRF). Simulation results were tested against data from Canada (continuous spring wheat [(Triticum aestivum L.]) and Germany (spring wheat, winter barley [Hordeum vulgare L.], sugarbeet [Beta vulgaris L.], winter wheat rotation). For the Canadian data, the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) for water content in the upper soil layers was very similar for FRF and PRF; for the deeper layers, RMSEP was smaller for PRF. For the German data, RMSEP was lower for PRF in the upper layers and was similar for both models in the deeper layers. In conclusion, but dependent on the properties of the data sets available for testing,the incorporation of the new reduction function into SWAP was successful, providing new capabilities for simulating compensated root water uptake without increasing the number of input parameters or degrading model performance.

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Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

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We introduce the log-beta Weibull regression model based on the beta Weibull distribution (Famoye et al., 2005; Lee et al., 2007). We derive expansions for the moment generating function which do not depend on complicated functions. The new regression model represents a parametric family of models that includes as sub-models several widely known regression models that can be applied to censored survival data. We employ a frequentist analysis, a jackknife estimator, and a parametric bootstrap for the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influences. Further, for different parameter settings, sample sizes, and censoring percentages, several simulations are performed. In addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals are displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be extended to a modified deviance residual in the proposed regression model applied to censored data. We define martingale and deviance residuals to evaluate the model assumptions. The extended regression model is very useful for the analysis of real data and could give more realistic fits than other special regression models.

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The aim of this study was to evaluate (1) the prevalence of periodic leg movements during sleep (PLMs) in a consecutive sample of congestive heart failure (CHF) outpatients; (2) the presence of correlation between PLMs, subjective daytime sleepiness, and sleep architecture; and (3) the heart rate response to PLMs in CHF. Seventy-nine [50 men, age 59 +/- 11 years, body mass index (BMI) 26 +/- 5 kg/m(2)] consecutive adult stable outpatients with CHF [left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 36 +/- 6%] were prospectively evaluated. The patients underwent assessment of echocardiography, sleepiness (Epworth Scale), and overnight in-lab polysomnography. Fifteen patients (19%) had PLM index > 5. These subjects were similar in sex distribution, BMI, subjective somnolence, LVEF, and apnea-hypopnea index (AHI), but were significantly older than subjects without PLMs. Sleep architecture was similar in subjects with and without PLMs. There was a small but significant elevation of heart rate after PLMs (80.1 +/- 9.4 vs. 81.5 +/- 9.2; p < 0.001). The cardiac acceleration was also present in absence of electroencephalogram activation. The prevalence of PLMs in consecutive sample of adult CHF outpatients was 19%. There were no differences in subjective daytime sleepiness, sleep architecture, AHI, and severity of CHF in subjects with and without PLMs. PLMs caused a small but statistically significant cardiac acceleration.

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We examined the association between IL28B single-nucleotide polymorphism rs12979860, hepatitis C virus (HCV) kinetic, and pegylated interferon alpha-2a pharmacodynamic parameters in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients from South America. Twenty-six subjects received pegylated interferon alpha-2a + ribavirin. Serum HCV-RNA and interferon concentrations were measured frequently during the first 12 weeks of therapy and analyzed using mathematical models. African Americans and whites had a similar distribution of IL28B genotypes (P = 0.5). The IL28B CC genotype was overrepresented (P = 0.015) in patients infected with HCV genotype-3 compared with genotype-1. In both genotype-1 and genotype-3, the first-phase viral decline and the average pegylated interferon-alpha-2a effectiveness during the first week of therapy were larger (trend P <= 0.12) in genotype-CC compared with genotypes-TC/TT. In genotype-1 patients, the second slower phase of viral decline (days 2-29) and infected cells loss rate, delta, were larger (P = 0.02 and 0.11, respectively) in genotype-CC than in genotypes-TC/TT. These associations were not observed in genotype-3 patients.

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Fentanyl is used in obstetrical practice to promote analgesia and anesthesia during labor and in cesarean delivery, with rapid and short-term effects. To determine fentanyl concentrations in maternal plasma, in the placental intervillous space, and in the umbilical artery and vein in term pregnant women. Ten healthy pregnant women underwent epidural anesthesia with fentanyl plus bupivacaine and lidocaine, and fentanyl concentrations were determined in the various maternal and fetal compartments, including the placental intervillous space, which has not been previously studied in the literature. The ratios of fentanyl concentrations in the various maternal and fetal compartments revealed an 86% rate of placental fentanyl transfer. The highest fentanyl concentrations were detected in the placental intervillous space, being 2.19 times higher than in maternal plasma, 2.8 times higher than in the umbilical vein and 3.6 times higher than in the umbilical artery, with no significant differences between the umbilical vein and artery, demonstrating that there was no drug uptake by fetal tissues nor metabolism of the drug by the fetus despite the high rates of placental transfer. The present study demonstrated that the placental intervillous space acted as a site of fentanyl deposit, a fact that may be explained by two hypotheses: (1) the blood collected from the placental intervillous space is arterial and, according to some investigators, the arterial plasma concentrations of the drugs administered to patients undergoing epidural anesthesia are higher than the venous concentrations, and (2) a possible role of P-glycoprotein (P-gp).

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Historically, the cure rate model has been used for modeling time-to-event data within which a significant proportion of patients are assumed to be cured of illnesses, including breast cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, leukemia, prostate cancer, melanoma, and head and neck cancer. Perhaps the most popular type of cure rate model is the mixture model introduced by Berkson and Gage [1]. In this model, it is assumed that a certain proportion of the patients are cured, in the sense that they do not present the event of interest during a long period of time and can found to be immune to the cause of failure under study. In this paper, we propose a general hazard model which accommodates comprehensive families of cure rate models as particular cases, including the model proposed by Berkson and Gage. The maximum-likelihood-estimation procedure is discussed. A simulation study analyzes the coverage probabilities of the asymptotic confidence intervals for the parameters. A real data set on children exposed to HIV by vertical transmission illustrates the methodology.

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Background: Although the influence of respiration on ventricular filling, as evaluated by Doppler technique, and the evaluation of diastolic velocities of mitral valve annulus (MVA), as measured by Doppler tissue imaging (DTI), can provide valuable information for the study of left ventricular (LV) diastolic function, the concomitant effects of aging, tidal volume (TV), and respiratory rate (RR) on these velocities have not been quantitatively investigated. Methods: We evaluated 12 normal male volunteers (Group I) aged 20-26 years (mean: 22.8) and 8 normal subjects aged 41 to 54 years old (mean: 45.9) (Group II). Using DTI we measured peak early (E-a) and late (A(a)) velocities of longitudinal axis expansion at lateral and medial MVA. Doppler mitral and tricuspid flow velocities were measured: peak early (E) and late (A) inflow velocity, early (E-i) and late (A(i)) flow integral, and deceleration time of peak early mitral flow velocity (DT). Respiratory cycles were simultaneously recorded at RR of 9, 12, 15, and 18 cycles/min and TV of 600 and 900 mL during respiration (RESP). Results and conclusions: (1) E, A, and A(i) in MV had negligible change during respiration, but E-i was significantly reduced during inspiration; (2) DT reduced slightly with inspiration, but the change was significant only with TV of 900 mL; (3) an important increase of E in right ventricular flow was observed during inspiration; (4) variations of RR and TV did not significantly influence right and left ventricular inflow in normal subjects, in the conditions of this investigation; (5) a significant increase of E-a at medial MVA was documented during inspiration only in young subjects; (6) a significant decrease of A(a) at medial MVA was observed during inspiration in both groups of volunteers; (7) RR and TV did not influence MVA velocities in young and adult subjects; (8) a consistent reduction in E-a and a significant increase in A(a) were observed with increasing age; (9) these changes were more conspicuous and consistent than those documented in ventricular filling when young and middle-age men are compared, suggesting that the DTI is more sensitive to detect changes in diastolic function; and (10) in addition, these data suggest that, for evaluation of diastolic function, in clinical context, it is not necessary to control rigorously RR or TV.