Risk-based decision making method for maintenance policy selection of thermal power plant equipment

This study presents a decision-making method for maintenance policy selection of power plants equipment. The method is based on risk analysis concepts. The method first step consists in identifying critical equipment both for power plant operational performance and availability based on risk concepts. The second step involves the proposal of a potential maintenance policy that could be applied to critical equipment in order to increase its availability. The costs associated with each potential maintenance policy must be estimated, including the maintenance costs and the cost of failure that measures the critical equipment failure consequences for the power plant operation. Once the failure probabilities and the costs of failures are estimated, a decision-making procedure is applied to select the best maintenance policy. The decision criterion is to minimize the equipment cost of failure, considering the costs and likelihood of occurrence of failure scenarios. The method is applied to the analysis of a lubrication oil system used in gas turbines journal bearings. The turbine has more than 150 MW nominal output, installed in an open cycle thermoelectric power plant. A design modification with the installation of a redundant oil pump is proposed for lubricating oil system availability improvement. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Policy Iteration Algorithm for Average Continuous Control of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes

The main goal of this paper is to apply the so-called policy iteration algorithm (PIA) for the long run average continuous control problem of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP`s) taking values in a general Borel space and with compact action space depending on the state variable. In order to do that we first derive some important properties for a pseudo-Poisson equation associated to the problem. In the sequence it is shown that the convergence of the PIA to a solution satisfying the optimality equation holds under some classical hypotheses and that this optimal solution yields to an optimal control strategy for the average control problem for the continuous-time PDMP in a feedback form.

Synaptic compensation on Hopfield network: implications for memory rehabilitation

The discrete-time neural network proposed by Hopfield can be used for storing and recognizing binary patterns. Here, we investigate how the performance of this network on pattern recognition task is altered when neurons are removed and the weights of the synapses corresponding to these deleted neurons are divided among the remaining synapses. Five distinct ways of distributing such weights are evaluated. We speculate how this numerical work about synaptic compensation may help to guide experimental studies on memory rehabilitation interventions.

Forest Policy Reform in Brazil

Rapid deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, caused by economic, social, and policy factors, has focused global and national attention on protecting this valuable forest resource. In response, Brazil reformed its federal forest laws in 2006, creating new regulatory, development, and incentive policy instruments and institutions. Federal forestry responsibilities are maintained within the ministry of the environment; its regulatory agency responsibilities are divided among three different branches of the agency; many powers are delegated to states and municipalities; and a new private concession system is being developed. These reforms offer promise to improve forest protection and management in Brazil but must overcome significant institutional and social resistance for success.

Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Seed development, yield and quality of two palm species growing in different tropical forest types in SE Brazil: implications for ecological restoration

Natural forest remnants have been set as seed production fields to supply seeds of native tree species for tropical forest restoration, but the effect of different forest types on seed production has not been accessed to date for palm species. In this work, we studied seed development, yield, and quality of two palm species in different tropical forest types in SE Brazil. Seed production of palmiteiro (Euterpe edulis) and queen-palm (Syagrus romanzoffiana), which are largely used in restoration efforts due to their importance for vertebrate frugivores, were studied in natural remnants of Atlantic Rainforest, Restinga Forest, Seasonally Dry Forest, and Cerrado Forest. We studied seed development, yield, size, and germination of seed lots produced in some of these forest types, including seeds harvested in 2008, 2009, and both years. Seed yield and quality, as well as seed dry mass in 2009, were higher for palmiteiro seeds produced in the Atlantic Rainforest, while queen-palm seeds produced at the Restinga Forest showed the higher mass and yield, but the lowest physiological potential. Consequently, these natural differences of seed yield and quality have to be taken into account for establishing standards for seed commercialization and analysis, seed pricing, and seedling production in forest nurseries.

Environmental, land-use and economic implications of Brazilian sugarcane expansion 1996-2006

Governments are promoting biofuels and the resulting changes in land use and crop reallocation to biofuels production have raised concerns about impacts on environment and food security. The promotion of biofuels has also been questioned based on suggested marginal contribution to greenhouse gas emissions reduction, partly due to induced land use change causing greenhouse gas emissions. This study reports how the expansion of sugarcane in Brazil during 1996-2006 affected indicators for environment, land use and economy. The results indicate that sugarcane expansion did not in general contribute to direct deforestation in the traditional agricultural region where most of the expansion took place. The amount of forests on farmland in this area is below the minimum stated in law and the situation did not change over the studied period. Sugarcane expansion resulted in a significant reduction of pastures and cattle heads and higher economic growth than in neighboring areas. It could not be established to what extent the discontinuation of cattle production induced expansion of pastures in other areas, possibly leading to indirect deforestation. However, the results indicate that a possible migration of the cattle production reached further than the neighboring of expansion regions. Occurring at much smaller rates, expansion of sugarcane in regions such as the Amazon and the Northeast region was related to direct deforestation and competition with food crops, and appear not to have induced economic growth. These regions are not expected to experience substantial increases of sugarcane in the near future, but mitigating measures are warranted.

Viability of Lactobacillus acidophilus La-5 added solely or in co-culture with a yoghurt starter culture and implications on physico-chemical and related properties of Minas fresh cheese during storage

The effect of a probiotic culture of Lactobacillus acidophilus (La-5), added solely or in co-culture with a starter culture of Streptococcus thermophilus, on texture, proteolysis and related properties of Minas fresh cheese during storage at 5 degrees C was investigated. Three cheese-making trials were prepared and produced with no addition of cultures (T1 - control), supplemented with La-5 (T2), and with La-5 + S. thermophilus (T3). Viable counts of La-5 remained above 6.00 log cfu g(-1) during the whole storage for T2, reaching 7.00 log cfu g(-1) on the 14th day. For T3, the counts of La-5 remained above 6.00 log cfu g(-1) after 7 days of storage. Due to the presence of S. thermophilus, T3 presented the highest proteolytic index increase and titratable acidity values. Nevertheless, these results and S. thermophilus addition had no influence on viability of La-5 which presented satisfactory populations for a probiotic food. Moreover, the use of a yoghurt culture for the production of Minas fresh cheese T3 supplemented with La-5 resulted in a good quality product, with a small rate of post-acidification, indicating that traditional yoghurt culture could be employed in co-culture with La-5 to improve the quality of this cheese. (C) 2008 Swiss Society of Food Science and Technology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The anti-cancer agent guttiferone-A permeabilizes mitochondrial membrane: Ensuing energetic and oxidative stress implications

Guttiferone-A (GA) is a natural occurring polyisoprenylated benzophenone with cytotoxic action in vitro and anti-tumor action in rodent models. We addressed a potential involvement of mitochondria in GA toxicity (1-25 mu M) toward cancer cells by employing both hepatic carcinoma (HepG2) cells and succinate-energized mitochondria, isolated from rat liver. In HepG2 cells GA decreased viability, dissipated mitochondrial membrane potential, depleted ATP and increased reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels. In isolated rat-liver mitochondria GA promoted membrane fluidity increase, cyclosporine A/EGTA-insensitive membrane permeabilization, uncoupling (membrane potential dissipation/state 4 respiration rate increase), Ca(2+) efflux, ATP depletion, NAD(P)H depletion/oxidation and ROS levels increase. All effects in cells, except mitochondrial membrane potential dissipation, as well as NADPH depletion/oxidation and permeabilization in isolated mitochondria, were partly prevented by the a NAD(P)H regenerating substrate isocitrate. The results suggest the following sequence of events: 1) GA interaction with mitochondrial membrane promoting its permeabilization; 2) mitochondrial membrane potential dissipation; 3) NAD(P)H oxidation/depletion due to inability of membrane potential-sensitive NADP(+) transhydrogenase of sustaining its reduced state; 4) ROS accumulation inside mitochondria and cells; 5) additional mitochondrial membrane permeabilization due to ROS; and 6) ATP depletion. These GA actions are potentially implicated in the well-documented anti-cancer property of GA/structure related compounds. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Characterization of Rubus fruticosus mitochondria and salicylic acid inhibition of reactive oxygen species generation at Complex III/Q cycle: potential implications for hypersensitive response in plants

In addition to adenosine triphosphate (ATP) production, mitochondria have been implicated in the regulation of several physiological responses in plants, such as programmed cell death (PCD) activation. Salicylic acid (SA) and reactive oxygen species (ROS) are essential signaling molecules involved in such physiological responses; however, the mechanisms by which they act remain unknown. In non-photosynthesizing tissues, mitochondria appear to serve as the main source of ROS generation. Evidence suggests that SA and ROS could regulate plant PCD through a synergistic mechanism that involves mitochondria. Herein, we isolate and characterize the mitochondria from non-photosynthesizing cell suspension cultures of Rubus fruticosus. Furthermore, we assess the primary site of ROS generation and the effects of SA on isolated organelles. Mitochondrial Complex III was found to be the major source of ROS generation in this model. In addition, we discovered that SA inhibits the electron transport chain by inactivating the semiquinone radical during the Q cycle. Computational analyses confirmed the experimental data, and a mechanism for this action is proposed.

Fruit anatomy of Neotropical species of Indigofera (Leguminosae, Papilionoideae) with functional and taxonomic implications

LEITE, V. G., F. S. MARQUIAFAVEL, D. P. MORAES, AND S. P. TEIXEIRA (Departamento de Ciencias Farmaceuticas, Faculdade de Ciencias Farmaceuticas de Ribeirao Preto, Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), Av. do Cafe, s/n, 14040-903 Ribeirao Preto, SP, Brazil). Fruit anatomy of Neotropical species of Indigofera (Leguminosae, Papilionoideae) with functional and taxonomic implications. J. Torrey Bot. Soc. 136: 203-211. 2009-This work reports on the fruit surface and anatomy of seven Neotropical species of Indigofera (I. campestris Bong. ex Benth., I. hirsuta L., I. lespedeziodes Kunth, I. microcarpa Desv., I. spicata Forssk., I. suffruticosa Mill., and I. truxillensis Kunth) to help species diagnosis and clarify the fruit type classification. Flowers and fruits at several stages of development were removed from living material, fixed, and examined with scanning electron (surface analyses) and light microscopies (histological analyses). Species showed differences in relation to the number of exocarp layers, secretory trichome morphology and distribution, presence of stomata, phenolic idioblast size and distribution in mesocarp, the number and arrangement of endocarp fibers, and the presence of it separation tissue. It is noteworthy that no separation tissue was observed in L microcarpa and I. suffruticosa, although they have dehiscent fruits, which indicates it delayed dehiscence. The present work confirms that fruit anatomical characters can be utilized as it tool for fruit type classification, especially in Indigofera, the third largest genus of Leguminosae.

The game to play: expanding the co-opetition proposal through the strategic games matrix

Purpose - Using Brandenburger and Nalebuff`s 1995 co-opetition model as a reference, the purpose of this paper is to seek to develop a tool that, based on the tenets of classical game theory, would enable scholars and managers to identify which games may be played in response to the different conflict of interest situations faced by companies in their business environments. Design/methodology/approach - The literature on game theory and business strategy are reviewed and a conceptual model, the strategic games matrix (SGM), is developed. Two novel games are described and modeled. Findings - The co-opetition model is not sufficient to realistically represent most of the conflict of interest situations faced by companies. It seeks to address this problem through development of the SGM, which expands upon Brandenburger and Nalebuff`s model by providing a broader perspective, through incorporation of an additional dimension (power ratio between players) and three novel, respectively, (rival, individualistic, and associative). Practical implications - This proposed model, based on the concepts of game theory, should be used to train decision- and policy-makers to better understand, interpret and formulate conflict management strategies. Originality/value - A practical and original tool to use game models in conflict of interest situations is generated. Basic classical games, such as Nash, Stackelberg, Pareto, and Minimax, are mapped on the SGM to suggest in which situations they Could be useful. Two innovative games are described to fit four different types of conflict situations that so far have no corresponding game in the literature. A test application of the SGM to a classic Intel Corporation strategic management case, in the complex personal computer industry, shows that the proposed method is able to describe, to interpret, to analyze, and to prescribe optimal competitive and/or cooperative strategies for each conflict of interest situation.

Incorporating demand-side aspects into regional policy: variations in the importance of private investment decision factors across regions

Most regional programs focus on the supply side of regions, emphasizing the attraction conditions offered, such as infrastructure, labor skills, tax incentives, etc. This study analyzes one aspect of the demand side, that is, how investment decisions of private firms are made by asking the question: ""Do corporations decide the same way on investments in different parts of the territory?"" The paper analyzes the investments of 373 large Brazilian firms during 1996-2004. Based on the investment decisions of these firms, the role of sales, cash-flow, external financing, and working capital is investigated through regression analysis. The regional influence is captured by explanatory variables representing regional and firm characteristics, and by interaction dummies between the region and the main investment determinants. The results indicate significant differences across regions in the importance of investment determinants. This information is important for regional development policy, because different mechanisms should be used in different regions to foster private investments.

Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities

This paper uses a new panel of more than 2,000 Brazilian municipalities over 13 years to analyze the influence of public expenditures on the probability of mayors` reelection. We examine Brazilian municipal elections from 1988 to 2000 using a logit fixed-effects model. The results suggest that mayors who spend more during their terms of office increase the probability of their own reelection or of a successor of the same political party. In particular, higher capital spending over the years preceding elections and current expenditures in election years are beneficial to Brazilian incumbent mayors.