Estimativa da probabilidade do evento extremo de precipitação de janeiro de 2000 no Vale do Paraíba, baseada na distribuição generalizada de pareto

Um evento extremo de precipitação ocorreu na primeira semana do ano 2000, de 1º a 5 de janeiro, no Vale do Paraíba, parte leste do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, causando enorme impacto socioeconômico, com mortes e destruição. Este trabalho estudou este evento em 10 estações meteorológicas selecionadas que foram consideradas como aquelas tendo dados mais homogêneos do Que outras estações na região. O modelo de distribuição generalizada de Pareto (DGP) para valores extremos de precipitação de 5 dias foi desenvolvido, individualmente para cada uma dessas estações. Na modelagem da DGP, foi adotada abordagem não-estacionaria considerando o ciclo anual e tendência de longo prazo como co-variaveis. Uma conclusão desta investigação é que as quantidades de precipitação acumulada durante os 5 dias do evento estudado podem ser classificadas como extremamente raras para a região, com probabilidade de ocorrência menor do que 1% para maioria das estações, e menor do que 0,1% em três estações.

Study of the equatorial Atlantic Ocean mixing layer using a one-dimensional turbulence model

The General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) is applied to the diagnostic turbulence field of the mixing layer (ML) over the equatorial region of the Atlantic Ocean. Two situations were investigated: rainy and dry seasons, defined, respectively, by the presence of the intertropical convergence zone and by its northward displacement. Simulations were carried out using data from a PIRATA buoy located on the equator at 23º W to compute surface turbulent fluxes and from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project to close the surface radiation balance. A data assimilation scheme was used as a surrogate for the physical effects not present in the one-dimensional model. In the rainy season, results show that the ML is shallower due to the weaker surface stress and stronger stable stratification; the maximum ML depth reached during this season is around 15 m, with an averaged diurnal variation of 7 m depth. In the dry season, the stronger surface stress and the enhanced surface heat balance components enable higher mechanical production of turbulent kinetic energy and, at night, the buoyancy acts also enhancing turbulence in the first meters of depth, characterizing a deeper ML, reaching around 60 m and presenting an average diurnal variation of 30 m.

Glycosaminoglycan distribution in the rat uterine cervix during the estrous cycle

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the amount of glycosaminoglycans in the uterine cervix during each phase of the rat estrous cycle. DESIGN: Based on vaginal smears, forty female, regularly cycling rats were divided into four groups (n = 10 for each group): GI - proestrous, GII - estrous, GIII - metaestrous and GIV - diestrous. Animals were sacrificed at each phase of the cycle, and the cervix was immediately removed and submitted to biochemical extraction and determination of sulfated glycosaminoglycans and hyaluronic acid. The results were analyzed by ANOVA followed by the Bonferroni post-hoc test. RESULTS: The uterine cervix had the highest amount of total sulfated glycosaminoglycans and dermatan sulfate during the estrous phase (8.90 ± 0.55 mg/g of cetonic extract, p<0.001; and 8.86 ± 0.57 mg/g of cetonic extract, p<0.001). In addition, there was more heparan sulfate at the cervix during the proestrous phase (0.185 ± 0.03 mg/g of cetonic extract) than during any other phase (p<0.001). There were no significant changes in the concentration of hyaluronic acid in the uterine cervix during the estrous cycle. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that the amount of total sulfated glycosaminoglycans may be influenced by hormonal fluctuations related to the estrous cycle, with dermatan sulfate and heparan sulfate being the glycosaminoglycans most sensitive to hormonal change.

Immune cells and oxidative stress in the endotoxin tolerance mouse model

Sepsis is a systemic inflammatory response that can lead to tissue damage and death. In order to increase our understanding of sepsis, experimental models are needed that produce relevant immune and inflammatory responses during a septic event. We describe a lipopolysaccharide tolerance mouse model to characterize the cellular and molecular alterations of immune cells during sepsis. The model presents a typical lipopolysaccharide tolerance pattern in which tolerance is related to decreased production and secretion of cytokines after a subsequent exposure to a lethal dose of lipopolysaccharide. The initial lipopolysaccharide exposure also altered the expression patterns of cytokines and was followed by an 8- and a 1.5-fold increase in the T helper 1 and 2 cell subpopulations. Behavioral data indicate a decrease in spontaneous activity and an increase in body temperature following exposure to lipopolysaccharide. In contrast, tolerant animals maintained production of reactive oxygen species and nitric oxide when terminally challenged by cecal ligation and puncture (CLP). Survival study after CLP showed protection in tolerant compared to naive animals. Spleen mass increased in tolerant animals followed by increases of B lymphocytes and subpopulation Th1 cells. An increase in the number of stem cells was found in spleen and bone marrow. We also showed that administration of spleen or bone marrow cells from tolerant to naive animals transfers the acquired resistance status. In conclusion, lipopolysaccharide tolerance is a natural reprogramming of the immune system that increases the number of immune cells, particularly T helper 1 cells, and does not reduce oxidative stress.

Cardioprotective effect of ornitho-kinin in an anesthetized, open-chest chicken model of acute coronary occlusion

The generation of bradykinin (BK; Arg-Pro-Pro-Gly-Phe-Ser-Pro-Phe-Arg) in blood and kallidin (Lys-BK) in tissues by the action of the kallikrein-kinin system has received little attention in non-mammalian vertebrates. In mammals, kallidin can be generated by the coronary endothelium and myocytes in response to ischemia, mediating cardioprotective events. The plasma of birds lacks two key components of the kallikrein-kinin system: the low molecular weight kininogen and a prekallikrein activator analogous to mammalian factor XII, but treatment with bovine plasma kallikrein generates ornitho-kinin [Thr6,Leu8]-BK. The possible cardioprotective effect of ornitho-kinin infusion was investigated in an anesthetized, open-chest chicken model of acute coronary occlusion. A branch of the left main coronary artery was reversibly ligated to produce ischemia followed by reperfusion, after which the degree of myocardial necrosis (infarct size as a percent of area at risk) was assessed by tetrazolium staining. The iv injection of a low dose of ornitho-kinin (4 µg/kg) reduced mean arterial pressure from 88 ± 12 to 42 ± 7 mmHg and increased heart rate from 335 ± 38 to 402 ± 45 bpm (N = 5). The size of the infarct was reduced by pretreatment with ornitho-kinin (500 µg/kg infused over a period of 5 min) from 35 ± 3 to 10 ± 2% of the area at risk. These results suggest that the physiological role of the kallikrein-kinin system is preserved in this animal model in spite of the absence of two key components, i.e., low molecular weight kininogen and factor XII.

Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

In this work we study the problem of modeling identification of a population employing a discrete dynamic model based on the Richards growth model. The population is subjected to interventions due to consumption, such as hunting or farming animals. The model identification allows us to estimate the probability or the average time for a population number to reach a certain level. The parameter inference for these models are obtained with the use of the likelihood profile technique as developed in this paper. The identification method here developed can be applied to evaluate the productivity of animal husbandry or to evaluate the risk of extinction of autochthon populations. It is applied to data of the Brazilian beef cattle herd population, and the the population number to reach a certain goal level is investigated.

Keratoconus prediction using a finite element model of the cornea with local biomechanical properties

PURPOSE: The ability to predict and understand which biomechanical properties of the cornea are responsible for the stability or progression of keratoconus may be an important clinical and surgical tool for the eye-care professional. We have developed a finite element model of the cornea, that tries to predicts keratoconus-like behavior and its evolution based on material properties of the corneal tissue. METHODS: Corneal material properties were modeled using bibliographic data and corneal topography was based on literature values from a schematic eye model. Commercial software was used to simulate mechanical and surface properties when the cornea was subject to different local parameters, such as elasticity. RESULTS: The simulation has shown that, depending on the corneal initial surface shape, changes in local material properties and also different intraocular pressures values induce a localized protuberance and increase in curvature when compared to the remaining portion of the cornea. CONCLUSIONS: This technique provides a quantitative and accurate approach to the problem of understanding the biomechanical nature of keratoconus. The implemented model has shown that changes in local material properties of the cornea and intraocular pressure are intrinsically related to keratoconus pathology and its shape/curvature.

Dependence of the crossover exponent with the diffusion rate in the generalized contact process model

We study how the crossover exponent, phi, between the directed percolation (DP) and compact directed percolation (CDP) behaves as a function of the diffusion rate in a model that generalizes the contact process. Our conclusions are based in results pointed by perturbative series expansions and numerical simulations, and are consistent with a value phi = 2 for finite diffusion rates and phi = 1 in the limit of infinite diffusion rate.

Stress distribution in the cervical region of an upper central incisor in a 3D finite element model

The aim of this study was to evaluate the stress distribution in the cervical region of a sound upper central incisor in two clinical situations, standard and maximum masticatory forces, by means of a 3D model with the highest possible level of fidelity to the anatomic dimensions. Two models with 331,887 linear tetrahedral elements that represent a sound upper central incisor with periodontal ligament, cortical and trabecular bones were loaded at 45º in relation to the tooth's long axis. All structures were considered to be homogeneous and isotropic, with the exception of the enamel (anisotropic). A standard masticatory force (100 N) was simulated on one of the models, while on the other one a maximum masticatory force was simulated (235.9 N). The software used were: PATRAN for pre- and post-processing and Nastran for processing. In the cementoenamel junction area, tensile forces reached 14.7 MPa in the 100 N model, and 40.2 MPa in the 235.9 N model, exceeding the enamel's tensile strength (16.7 MPa). The fact that the stress concentration in the amelodentinal junction exceeded the enamel's tensile strength under simulated conditions of maximum masticatory force suggests the possibility of the occurrence of non-carious cervical lesions such as abfractions.

Reaction-diffusion stochastic lattice model for a predator-prey system

We have the purpose of analyzing the effect of explicit diffusion processes in a predator-prey stochastic lattice model. More precisely we wish to investigate the possible effects due to diffusion upon the thresholds of coexistence of species, i. e., the possible changes in the transition between the active state and the absorbing state devoid of predators. To accomplish this task we have performed time dependent simulations and dynamic mean-field approximations. Our results indicate that the diffusive process can enhance the species coexistence.

A novel polar-based human face recognition computational model

Motivated by a recently proposed biologically inspired face recognition approach, we investigated the relation between human behavior and a computational model based on Fourier-Bessel (FB) spatial patterns. We measured human recognition performance of FB filtered face images using an 8-alternative forced-choice method. Test stimuli were generated by converting the images from the spatial to the FB domain, filtering the resulting coefficients with a band-pass filter, and finally taking the inverse FB transformation of the filtered coefficients. The performance of the computational models was tested using a simulation of the psychophysical experiment. In the FB model, face images were first filtered by simulated V1- type neurons and later analyzed globally for their content of FB components. In general, there was a higher human contrast sensitivity to radially than to angularly filtered images, but both functions peaked at the 11.3-16 frequency interval. The FB-based model presented similar behavior with regard to peak position and relative sensitivity, but had a wider frequency band width and a narrower response range. The response pattern of two alternative models, based on local FB analysis and on raw luminance, strongly diverged from the human behavior patterns. These results suggest that human performance can be constrained by the type of information conveyed by polar patterns, and consequently that humans might use FB-like spatial patterns in face processing.

The UV/H2O2 - photodegradation of poly(ethyleneglycol) and model compounds

The general mechanism for the photodegradation of polyethyleneglycol (PEG) by H2O2/UV was determined studying the photooxidation of small model molecules, like low molecular weight ethyleneglycols (tetra-, tri-, di-, and ethyleneglycol). After 30 min of irradiation the average molar mass (Mw) of the degradated PEG, analysed by GPC, fall to half of its initial value, with a concomitant increase in polydispersitivity and number of average chain scission (S), characterizing a random chain scission process yielding oligomers and smaller size ethyleneglycols. HPLC analysis of the photodegradation of the model ethyleneglycols proved that the oxidation mechanism involved consecutive reactions, where the larger ethyleneglycols gave rise, successively, to smaller ones. The photodegradation of ethyleneglycol lead to the formation of low molecular weight carboxylic acids, like glycolic, oxalic and formic acids.

Survival, population pize, and gonotrophic cycle duration of Nyssomyia neivai (Diptera: Psychodidae) at an endemic area of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Southeastern Brazil

The survival, absolute population size, gonotrophic cycle duration, and temporal and spatial abundance of Nyssomyia neivai (Pinto) were studied in a rural area endemic for American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) in Conchal, Sõo Paulo State, southeastern Brazil, using mark-release-recapture techniques and by monitoring population fluctuation. The monthly abundance exhibited a unimodal pattern, with forest and domicile habitats having the highest relative abundances. A total of 1,873 males and 3,557 females were marked and released during the six experiments, of which 4.1-13.0 per cent of males and 4.1-11.8 per cent of females were recaptured. Daily survivorship estimated from the decline in recaptures per day was 0.681 for males and 0.667 for females. Gonotrophic cycle duration was estimated to be 4.0 d. Absolute population size was calculated using the Lincoln Index and ranged from 861 to 4,612 males and from 2,187 to 19,739 females. The low proportion of females that reach the age when they are potentially infective suggests that N. neivai has a low biological capacity to serve as a vector and that factors such as high biting rates and opportunistic feeding behavior would be needed to enable Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis Vianna transmission. This agreed with the epidemiological pattern of ACL in southeastern Brazil that is characterized by low incidence, with isolated cases acquired principally within domiciliary habitats

A fuzzy reed-frost model for epidemic spreading

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization

Protein-energy malnutrition alters the C3 complement factor in response to lipopolysaccharide in a murine model

A desnutrição proteico-energética modifica a resistência à infecção, modificando diversos processos fisiológicos, incluindo a hematopoiese e as funções imunológicas. Neste estudo, avaliamos as concentrações séricas do fator C3 e do Sistema Complemento total (CH50) em um modelo no qual camundongos submetidos à desnutrição proteico-energética são estimulados com lipopolissacarídeo (LPS), e avaliamos a celularidade periférica, medular e esplênica. Camundongos Swiss, machos, adultos, com dois meses de idade foram submetidos ao processo de desnutrição proteica com uma dieta contendo 4% de proteína em comparação aos animais controles com uma dieta contendo 20% de proteína. Quando os animais do grupo desnutrido alcançaram aproximadamente 20% de perda de peso, em relação ao inicial, foram inoculados endovenosamente com LPS. As células do sangue, da medula óssea e do baço foram quantificadas, bem como as concentrações circulantes de C3 e CH50 em animais estimulados com LPS. Os animais desnutridos apresentaram anemia e leucopenia, além de redução significativa da celularidade da medula óssea e do baço. Os animais desnutridos apresentaram menor taxa de sobrevivência, bem como das concentrações do fator C3 do complemento e do complemento total em relação aos animais controles. Estes resultados sugerem que animais desnutridos apresentam uma resposta deficiente aos LPS. A síntese menor do complemento pode ser em parte responsável pela imunodeficiência observada. Estes resultados conduzem-nos a inferir que a desnutrição proteico-energética interfere na ativação da resposta imune