Bayesian analysis for a skew extension of the multivariate null intercept measurement error model

Skew-normal distribution is a class of distributions that includes the normal distributions as a special case. In this paper, we explore the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in a multivariate, null intercept, measurement error model [R. Aoki, H. Bolfarine, J.A. Achcar, and D. Leao Pinto Jr, Bayesian analysis of a multivariate null intercept error-in -variables regression model, J. Biopharm. Stat. 13(4) (2003b), pp. 763-771] where the unobserved value of the covariate (latent variable) follows a skew-normal distribution. The results and methods are applied to a real dental clinical trial presented in [A. Hadgu and G. Koch, Application of generalized estimating equations to a dental randomized clinical trial, J. Biopharm. Stat. 9 (1999), pp. 161-178].

Aerosol inorganic composition at a tropical site: Discrepancies between filter-based sampling and a semi-continuous method

The concentrations of the water-soluble inorganic aerosol species, ammonium (NH4+), nitrate (NO3-), chloride (Cl-), and sulfate (SO42-), were measured from September to November 2002 at a pasture site in the Amazon Basin (Rondnia, Brazil) (LBA-SMOCC). Measurements were conducted using a semi-continuous technique (Wet-annular denuder/Steam-Jet Aerosol Collector: WAD/SJAC) and three integrating filter-based methods, namely (1) a denuder-filter pack (DFP: Teflon and impregnated Whatman filters), (2) a stacked-filter unit (SFU: polycarbonate filters), and (3) a High Volume dichotomous sampler (HiVol: quartz fiber filters). Measurements covered the late dry season (biomass burning), a transition period, and the onset of the wet season (clean conditions). Analyses of the particles collected on filters were performed using ion chromatography (IC) and Particle-Induced X-ray Emission spectrometry (PIXE). Season-dependent discrepancies were observed between the WAD/SJAC system and the filter-based samplers. During the dry season, when PM2.5 (D-p <= 2.5 mu m) concentrations were similar to 100 mu g m(-3), aerosol NH4+ and SO42- measured by the filter-based samplers were on average two times higher than those determined by the WAD/SJAC. Concentrations of aerosol NO3- and Cl- measured with the HiVol during daytime, and with the DFP during day- and nighttime also exceeded those of the WAD/SJAC by a factor of two. In contrast, aerosol NO3- and Cl- measured with the SFU during the dry season were nearly two times lower than those measured by the WAD/SJAC. These differences declined markedly during the transition period and towards the cleaner conditions during the onset of the wet season (PM2.5 similar to 5 mu g m(-3)); when filter-based samplers measured on average 40-90% less than the WAD/SJAC. The differences were not due to consistent systematic biases of the analytical techniques, but were apparently a result of prevailing environmental conditions and different sampling procedures. For the transition period and wet season, the significance of our results is reduced by a low number of data points. We argue that the observed differences are mainly attributable to (a) positive and negative filter sampling artifacts, (b) presence of organic compounds and organosulfates on filter substrates, and (c) a SJAC sampling efficiency of less than 100%.

Critical discontinuous phase transition in the threshold contact process

We analyze a threshold contact process on a square lattice in which particles are created on empty sites with at least two neighboring particles and are annihilated spontaneously. We show by means of Monte Carlo simulations that the process undergoes a discontinuous phase transition at a definite value of the annihilation parameter, in accordance with the Gibbs phase rule, and that the discontinuous transition exhibits critical behavior. The simulations were performed by using boundary conditions in which the sites of the border of the lattice are permanently occupied by particles.

Solvent Effects in Chemical Processes. Water-Assisted Proton Transfer Reaction of Pterin in Aqueous Environment

Pterins are members of a family of heterocyclic compounds present in a wide variety of biological systems and may exist in two forms, corresponding to an acid and a basic tautomer. In this work, the proton transfer reaction between these tautomeric forms was investigated in the gas phase and in aqueous solution. In gas phase, the intramolecular mechanism was carried out for die isolated pterin by quantum mechanical second-order Moller-Plesset Perturbation theory (MP2/aug-cc-pVDZ) calculations and it indicates that the acid form is more stable than the basic form by -1.4 kcal/mol with a barrier of 34.2 kcal/mol with respect to the basic form. In aqueous solution, the role of the water molecules in the proton transfer reaction was analyzed in two separated parts, the direct participation of one water molecule in the reaction path, called water-assisted mechanism, and the complementary participation of the aqueous solvation. The water-assisted mechanism was carried out for one pterin-water cluster by quantum mechanical calculations and it indicates that the acid form is still more stable by -3.3 kcal/mol with a drastic reduction of 70% of the barrier, The bulk solution effect on the intramolecular and water-assisted mechanisms was included by free energy perturbation implemented on Monte Carlo simulations. The bulk water effect is found to be substantial and decisive when the reaction path involves the water-assisted mechanism. In this case, the free energy barrier is only 6.7 kcal/mol and the calculated relative Gibbs free energy for the two tautomers is -11.2 kcal/mol. This value is used to calculate the pK(a) value of 8.2 +/- 0.6 that is in excellent agreement with the experimental result of 7.9.

Immobilization of Alcohol Dehydrogenase in Phospholipid Langmuir-Blodgett Films To Detect Ethanol

Enzyme immobilization in nanostructured films may be useful for a number of biomimetic systems, particularly if suitable matrixes are identified. Here we show that alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH) has high affinity toward a negatively charged phospholipid, dimyristoylphosphatidic acid (DMPA), which forms a Langmuir monolayer at an air-water interface. Incorporation of ADH into the DMPA monolayer was monitored with Surface pressure measurements; and polarization-modulation infrared reflection absorption spectroscopy, with the alpha-helices from ADH being mainly oriented parallel to the water surface. ADH remained at the interface even at high surface pressures, thus allowing deposition of Langmuir-Blodgett (LB) films from the DMPA-ADH film. Indeed, interaction with DMPA enhances the transfer of ADH, where the mass transferred onto a solid support increased from 134 ng for ADH on a Gibbs monolayer to 178 ng for an LB film with DMPA. With fluorescence spectroscopy it was possible to confirm that the ADH structure was preserved even after one month of the LB deposition. ADH-containing films deposited onto gold-interdigitated electrodes were employed in a sensor array capable of detecting ethanol at concentrations down to 10 ppb (in volume), using impedance spectroscopy as the method of detection.

Ionic Recognition by 7-Nitro-1,3,5-triaza Adamantane: First Thermodynamic Study

A thermodynamic study involving 7-nitro-1,3,5-triaza adamantane, 1, and its interaction with metal cations in nonaqueous media is first reported. Solubility data of 1 in various solvents were used to derive the standard Gibbs energies of solution, Delta G(s)degrees in these solvents. The effect of solvation in the different media was assessed from the Gibbs energy of transfer taking acetonitrile as a reference solvent. (1)H NMR studies of the interaction of 1 and metal cations were carried out in CD(3)CN and CD(3)OD and the data are reported. Conductance measurements revealed that this ligand forms lead(II) or zinc complexes of 1: 1 stoichiometry in acetonitrile. It also revealed a stoichiometry of two molecules of 1 per mercury(II) and two cadmiu (II) ions per molecule of 1. The addition of silver salt to 1 led to the precipitation of the silver-1 complex which was isolated and characterized by X-ray crystallography. At variance with conductance measurements in solution, in the solid state the X-ray structure show`s a 1:1 stoichiometry in the Hg(II) complex. The themiodynamics of complexation of 1 and these cations provide a quantitative assessment of the selective behavior of this ligand for ions of environmental relevance.

The fluorescence detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Pierre Auger Observatory is a hybrid detector for ultra-high energy cosmic rays. It combines a surface array to measure secondary particles at ground level together with a fluorescence detector to measure the development of air showers in the atmosphere above the array. The fluorescence detector comprises 24 large telescopes specialized for measuring the nitrogen fluorescence caused by charged particles of cosmic ray air showers. In this paper we describe the components of the fluorescence detector including its optical system, the design of the camera, the electronics, and the systems for relative and absolute calibration. We also discuss the operation and the monitoring of the detector. Finally, we evaluate the detector performance and precision of shower reconstructions. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Bayesian inference for a skew-normal IRT model under the centred parameterization

Item response theory (IRT) comprises a set of statistical models which are useful in many fields, especially when there is interest in studying latent variables. These latent variables are directly considered in the Item Response Models (IRM) and they are usually called latent traits. A usual assumption for parameter estimation of the IRM, considering one group of examinees, is to assume that the latent traits are random variables which follow a standard normal distribution. However, many works suggest that this assumption does not apply in many cases. Furthermore, when this assumption does not hold, the parameter estimates tend to be biased and misleading inference can be obtained. Therefore, it is important to model the distribution of the latent traits properly. In this paper we present an alternative latent traits modeling based on the so-called skew-normal distribution; see Genton (2004). We used the centred parameterization, which was proposed by Azzalini (1985). This approach ensures the model identifiability as pointed out by Azevedo et al. (2009b). Also, a Metropolis Hastings within Gibbs sampling (MHWGS) algorithm was built for parameter estimation by using an augmented data approach. A simulation study was performed in order to assess the parameter recovery in the proposed model and the estimation method, and the effect of the asymmetry level of the latent traits distribution on the parameter estimation. Also, a comparison of our approach with other estimation methods (which consider the assumption of symmetric normality for the latent traits distribution) was considered. The results indicated that our proposed algorithm recovers properly all parameters. Specifically, the greater the asymmetry level, the better the performance of our approach compared with other approaches, mainly in the presence of small sample sizes (number of examinees). Furthermore, we analyzed a real data set which presents indication of asymmetry concerning the latent traits distribution. The results obtained by using our approach confirmed the presence of strong negative asymmetry of the latent traits distribution. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian estimation of regression parameters in elliptical measurement error models

The main object of this paper is to discuss the Bayes estimation of the regression coefficients in the elliptically distributed simple regression model with measurement errors. The posterior distribution for the line parameters is obtained in a closed form, considering the following: the ratio of the error variances is known, informative prior distribution for the error variance, and non-informative prior distributions for the regression coefficients and for the incidental parameters. We proved that the posterior distribution of the regression coefficients has at most two real modes. Situations with a single mode are more likely than those with two modes, especially in large samples. The precision of the modal estimators is studied by deriving the Hessian matrix, which although complicated can be computed numerically. The posterior mean is estimated by using the Gibbs sampling algorithm and approximations by normal distributions. The results are applied to a real data set and connections with results in the literature are reported. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Semiparametric Bayesian measurement error modeling

This work presents a Bayesian semiparametric approach for dealing with regression models where the covariate is measured with error. Given that (1) the error normality assumption is very restrictive, and (2) assuming a specific elliptical distribution for errors (Student-t for example), may be somewhat presumptuous; there is need for more flexible methods, in terms of assuming only symmetry of errors (admitting unknown kurtosis). In this sense, the main advantage of this extended Bayesian approach is the possibility of considering generalizations of the elliptical family of models by using Dirichlet process priors in dependent and independent situations. Conditional posterior distributions are implemented, allowing the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to generate the posterior distributions. An interesting result shown is that the Dirichlet process prior is not updated in the case of the dependent elliptical model. Furthermore, an analysis of a real data set is reported to illustrate the usefulness of our approach, in dealing with outliers. Finally, semiparametric proposed models and parametric normal model are compared, graphically with the posterior distribution density of the coefficients. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Analysis for Nonlinear Regression Model Under Skewed Errors, with Application in Growth Curves

We have considered a Bayesian approach for the nonlinear regression model by replacing the normal distribution on the error term by some skewed distributions, which account for both skewness and heavy tails or skewness alone. The type of data considered in this paper concerns repeated measurements taken in time on a set of individuals. Such multiple observations on the same individual generally produce serially correlated outcomes. Thus, additionally, our model does allow for a correlation between observations made from the same individual. We have illustrated the procedure using a data set to study the growth curves of a clinic measurement of a group of pregnant women from an obstetrics clinic in Santiago, Chile. Parameter estimation and prediction were carried out using appropriate posterior simulation schemes based in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Besides the deviance information criterion (DIC) and the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO), we suggest the use of proper scoring rules based on the posterior predictive distribution for comparing models. For our data set, all these criteria chose the skew-t model as the best model for the errors. These DIC and CPO criteria are also validated, for the model proposed here, through a simulation study. As a conclusion of this study, the DIC criterion is not trustful for this kind of complex model.

A theoretical and mass spectrometry study of the fragmentation of mycosporine-like amino acids

In the present study, the mycosporine-like amino acids (MAAs) were isolated from the marine red alga Gracilaria tenuistipitata and analysed by high-resolution accurate-mass sequential mass spectrometry (MSn). In addition to the proposed fragmentation mechanism based on the MSn analysis, it is clearly demonstrated that the elimination of mass 15 is a radical processes taking place at the methoxyl substituent of the double bond. This characteristic loss of a methyl radical was studied by theoretical calculations and the homolytic cleavage of the O-C bond is suggested to be dependent on the bond weakening. The protonation site of the MAAs was indicated by analysis of the Fukui functions and the relative Gibbs energies of the several possible protonated forms. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mutagenicity and DNA adduct formation of PAH, nitro-PAH, and oxy-PAH fractions of atmospheric particulate matter from Sao Paulo, Brazil

Urban particulate matter (UPM) contributes to lung cancer incidence. Here, we have studied the mutagenic activity and DNA adduct-forming ability of fractionated UPM extractable organic matter (EOM). UPM was collected with a high-volume sampler in June 2004 at two sites, one at street level adjacent to a roadway and the other inside a park within the urban area of the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. UPM was extracted using dichloromethane, and the resulting EOM was separated by HPLC to obtain PAH, nitro-PAH, and oxy-PAH fractions which were tested for mutagenicity with the Salmonella strains TA98 and YG1041 with and without S9 metabolic activation. The PAH fraction from both sites showed negligible mutagenic activity in both strains. The highest mutagenic activity was found for the nitro-PAH fraction using YG1041 without metabolic activation; however, results were comparable for both sites. The nitro-PAH and oxy-PAH fractions were incubated with calf thymus DNA under reductive conditions appropriate for the activation of nitro aromatic compounds, then DNA adduct patterns and levels were determined with thin-layer chromatography (TLC) (32)p-postlabeling method using two enrichment procedures-nuclease PI digestion and butanol extraction. Reductively activated fractions from both sites produced diagonal radioactive zones (DRZ) of putative aromatic DNA adducts on thin layer plates with both enrichment procedures. No such DRZ were observed in control experiments using fractions from unexposed filters or from incubations without activating system. Total adduct levels produced by the nitro-PAH fractions were similar for both sites ranging from 30 to 45 adducts per 10(8) normal nucleotides. In contrast, the DNA binding of reductively activated oxy-PAH fractions was three times higher and the adduct pattern consisted of multiple discrete spots along the diagonal line on the thin layer plates. However, DNA adduct levels were not significantly different between the sampling sites. Both samples presented the same levels of mutagenic activity. The response in the Salmonella assay was typical of nitroaromatics. Although, more mutagenic activity was related to the nitro-PAH fraction in the Salmonella assay, the oxy-PAH fractions showed the highest DNA adduct levels. More studies are needed to elucidate the nature of the genotoxicants occurring in Sao Paulo atmospheric samples. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thiothionyl bromide (S=SBr2): The elusive isomer of dibromodisulfane (BrSSBr)

CCSD(T) with a series of correlation consistent basis up to quadruple-zeta is used to investigate the structures, vibrational spectra, relative stability, heats of formation, and barrier to isomerization of S=SBr2 and BrSSBr. It represents the most accurate and detailed characterization of these molecules to date. We show that the frequency mode at 302 cm(-1), detected in various studies and assigned to impurities by some authors, and to the anti-symmetric SBr stretch in BrSSBr by others, thus in fact corresponds to the anti-symmetric SBr stretch in the elusive S=SBr2 species; it thus corroborates and complements an earlier partial IR spectra study attributable to S=SBr2. Including corrections for relativistic and core-valence correlation effects, we also predict 26.33 (12.74) kcal/mol for Delta H-f (298.15 K) of S=SBr2 (BrSSBr). For the S=SBr2 -> BrSSBr reaction, our best estimates for the Gibbs free energy and the enthalpy of the reaction at 298.15 K are -13.71 and -13.44 kcal/mol, respectively. For a value of Delta G(#) equal to 23.52 kcal/mol, we estimate a TST rate constant, at 298.15 K, of 3.57 x 10(-5) s(-1). (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ab Initio Analysis of Monomers and Dimers of Trialkylphosphine Oxides: Structural and Thermodynamic Stability

Structural and thermodynamic stabilities of monomers and dimers of trialkylphosphine oxides (TRPO) were Studied using quantum chemistry calculations. Density functional theory calculations were carried Out and the structures Of four TRPO have been determined: TMPO (methyl; R = CH(3)), TEPO (ethyl; R = CH(3)CH(2)), TBPO (n-butyl; R = CH(3)(CH(2))(3)), and TOPO (n-octyl; R = CH(3)(CH(2))(7)). TRPO homodimers were investigated considering two isomeric possibilities for each dimer. Relative binding energies and the enthalpic and entropic contributions to the Gibbs free energy were Calculated for all dimers. The formation of dimers from the individual monomeric TRPO species as a function of temperature was also analyzed. (C) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Int J Quantum Chem 109: 250-258, 2009