The Poisson-exponential lifetime distribution

In this paper we proposed a new two-parameters lifetime distribution with increasing failure rate. The new distribution arises on a latent complementary risk problem base. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including a formal proof of its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulae for its reliability and failure rate functions, quantiles and moments, including the mean and variance. A simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates is presented. The Fisher information matrix is derived analytically in order to obtaining the asymptotic covariance matrix. The methodology is illustrated on a real data set. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution with application to failure data

For the first time, we introduce and study some mathematical properties of the Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution that is a quite flexible model in analyzing positive data. It contains as special sub-models the exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated Rayleigh, exponentiated exponential, Weibull and also the new Kumaraswamy exponential distribution. We provide explicit expressions for the moments and moment generating function. We examine the asymptotic distributions of the extreme values. Explicit expressions are derived for the mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, reliability and Renyi entropy. The moments of the order statistics are calculated. We also discuss the estimation of the parameters by maximum likelihood. We obtain the expected information matrix. We provide applications involving two real data sets on failure times. Finally, some multivariate generalizations of the Kumaraswamy Weibull distribution are discussed. (C) 2010 The Franklin Institute. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

General results for the beta-modified Weibull distribution

We study in detail the so-called beta-modified Weibull distribution, motivated by the wide use of the Weibull distribution in practice, and also for the fact that the generalization provides a continuous crossover towards cases with different shapes. The new distribution is important since it contains as special sub-models some widely-known distributions, such as the generalized modified Weibull, beta Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, beta exponential, modified Weibull and Weibull distributions, among several others. It also provides more flexibility to analyse complex real data. Various mathematical properties of this distribution are derived, including its moments and moment generating function. We examine the asymptotic distributions of the extreme values. Explicit expressions are also derived for the chf, mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, reliability and entropies. The estimation of parameters is approached by two methods: moments and maximum likelihood. We compare by simulation the performances of the estimates from these methods. We obtain the expected information matrix. Two applications are presented to illustrate the proposed distribution.

The exponentiated generalized gamma distribution with application to lifetime data

A four-parameter extension of the generalized gamma distribution capable of modelling a bathtub-shaped hazard rate function is defined and studied. The beauty and importance of this distribution lies in its ability to model monotone and non-monotone failure rate functions, which are quite common in lifetime data analysis and reliability. The new distribution has a number of well-known lifetime special sub-models, such as the exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated generalized half-normal, exponentiated gamma and generalized Rayleigh, among others. We derive two infinite sum representations for its moments. We calculate the density of the order statistics and two expansions for their moments. The method of maximum likelihood is used for estimating the model parameters and the observed information matrix is obtained. Finally, a real data set from the medical area is analysed.

A Log-Linear Regression Model for the Beta-Weibull Distribution

We introduce the log-beta Weibull regression model based on the beta Weibull distribution (Famoye et al., 2005; Lee et al., 2007). We derive expansions for the moment generating function which do not depend on complicated functions. The new regression model represents a parametric family of models that includes as sub-models several widely known regression models that can be applied to censored survival data. We employ a frequentist analysis, a jackknife estimator, and a parametric bootstrap for the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influences. Further, for different parameter settings, sample sizes, and censoring percentages, several simulations are performed. In addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals are displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be extended to a modified deviance residual in the proposed regression model applied to censored data. We define martingale and deviance residuals to evaluate the model assumptions. The extended regression model is very useful for the analysis of real data and could give more realistic fits than other special regression models.

Immunogenicity of a Whole-Cell Pertussis Vaccine with Low Lipopolysaccharide Content in Infants

The lack of a clear correlation between the levels of antibody to pertussis antigens and protection against disease lends credence to the possibility that cell-mediated immunity provides primary protection against disease. This phase I comparative trial had the aim of comparing the in vitro cellular immune response and anti-pertussis toxin (anti-PT) immunoglobulin G (IgG) titers induced by a cellular pertussis vaccine with low lipopolysaccharide (LPS) content (wP(low) vaccine) with those induced by the conventional whole-cell pertussis (wP) vaccine. A total of 234 infants were vaccinated at 2, 4, and 6 months with the conventional wP vaccine or the wP(low) vaccine. Proliferation of CD3(+) T cells was evaluated by flow cytometry after 6 days of peripheral blood mononuclear cell culture with stimulation with heat-killed Bordetella pertussis or phytohemagglutinin (PHA). CD3(+), CD4(+), CD8(+), and T-cell receptor gamma delta-positive (gamma delta(+)) cells were identified in the gate of blast lymphocytes. Gamma interferon, tumor necrosis factor alpha, interleukin-4 (IL-4), and IL-10 levels in super-natants and serum anti-PT IgG levels were determined using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The net percentage of CD3(+) blasts in cultures with B. pertussis in the group vaccinated with wP was higher than that in the group vaccinated with the wP(low) vaccine (medians of 6.2% for the wP vaccine and 3.9% for the wP(low) vaccine; P = 0.029). The frequencies of proliferating CD4(+), CD8(+), and gamma delta(+) cells, cytokine concentrations in supernatants, and the geometric mean titers of anti-PT IgG were similar for the two vaccination groups. There was a significant difference between the T-cell subpopulations for B. pertussis and PHA cultures, with a higher percentage of gamma delta(+) cells in the B. pertussis cultures (P < 0.001). The overall data did suggest that wP vaccination resulted in modestly better specific CD3(+) cell proliferation, and gamma delta(+) cell expansions were similar with the two vaccines.

Existence of asymptotically almost automorphic solutions to some abstract partial neutral integro-differential equations

The paper establishes the existence and uniqueness of asymptotically almost automorphic mild solution to an abstract partial neutral integro-differential equation with unbounded delay. An example is given to illustrate our results. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Loss of Ergodicity in the Transition from Annealed to Quenched Disorder in a Finite Kinetic Ising Model

We consider a kinetic Ising model which represents a generic agent-based model for various types of socio-economic systems. We study the case of a finite (and not necessarily large) number of agents N as well as the asymptotic case when the number of agents tends to infinity. The main ingredient are individual decision thresholds which are either fixed over time (corresponding to quenched disorder in the Ising model, leading to nonlinear deterministic dynamics which are generically non-ergodic) or which may change randomly over time (corresponding to annealed disorder, leading to ergodic dynamics). We address the question how increasing the strength of annealed disorder relative to quenched disorder drives the system from non-ergodic behavior to ergodicity. Mathematically rigorous analysis provides an explicit and detailed picture for arbitrary realizations of the quenched initial thresholds, revealing an intriguing ""jumpy"" transition from non-ergodicity with many absorbing sets to ergodicity. For large N we find a critical strength of annealed randomness, above which the system becomes asymptotically ergodic. Our theoretical results suggests how to drive a system from an undesired socio-economic equilibrium (e. g. high level of corruption) to a desirable one (low level of corruption).

Rheumatic Fever and Rheumatic Heart Disease: Cellular Mechanisms Leading Autoimmune Reactivity and Disease

Rheumatic fever (RF) is an autoimmune disease caused by the gram-positive bacteria Streptococcus pyogenes that follows a nontreated throat infection in susceptible children. The disease manifests as polyarthritis, carditis, chorea, erythema marginatum, and/or subcutaneous nodules. Carditis, the most serious complication, occurs in 30% to 45% of RF patients and leads to chronic rheumatic heart disease (RHD), which is characterized by progressive and permanent valvular lesions. In this review, we will focus on the genes that confer susceptibility for developing the disease, as well as the innate and adaptive immune responses against S. pyogenes during the acute rheumatic fever episode that leads to RHD autoimmune reactions. The disease is genetically determined, and some human leukocyte antigen class II alleles are involved with susceptibility. Other single nucleotide polymorphisms for TNF-alpha and mannan-binding lectin genes were reported as associated with RF/RHD. T cells play an important role in RHD heart lesions. Several autoantigens were already identified, including cardiac myosin epitopes, vimentin, and other intracellular proteins. In the heart tissue, antigen-driven oligoclonal T cell expansions were probably the effectors of the rheumatic heart lesions. These cells are CD4(+) and produced inflammatory cytokines (TNF alpha and IFN gamma). Molecular mimicry is the mechanism that mediated the cross-reactions between streptococcal antigens and human proteins. The elucidation of chemokines and their receptors involved with the recruitment of Th1, Th2, and Th17 cells, as well as the function of T regulatory cells in situ will certainly contribute to the delineation of the real picture of the heart lesion process that leads to RHD.

A general hazard model for lifetime data in the presence of cure rate

Historically, the cure rate model has been used for modeling time-to-event data within which a significant proportion of patients are assumed to be cured of illnesses, including breast cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, leukemia, prostate cancer, melanoma, and head and neck cancer. Perhaps the most popular type of cure rate model is the mixture model introduced by Berkson and Gage [1]. In this model, it is assumed that a certain proportion of the patients are cured, in the sense that they do not present the event of interest during a long period of time and can found to be immune to the cause of failure under study. In this paper, we propose a general hazard model which accommodates comprehensive families of cure rate models as particular cases, including the model proposed by Berkson and Gage. The maximum-likelihood-estimation procedure is discussed. A simulation study analyzes the coverage probabilities of the asymptotic confidence intervals for the parameters. A real data set on children exposed to HIV by vertical transmission illustrates the methodology.

Forest-obligate Sabethes mosquitoes suggest palaeoecological perturbations

The origin of tropical forest diversity has been hotly debated for decades. Although specific mechanisms vary, many such explanations propose some vicariance in the distribution of species during glacial cycles and several have been supported by genetic evidence in Neotropical taxa. However, no consensus exists with regard to the extent or time frame of the vicariance events. Here, we analyse the cytochrome oxidase II mitochondrial gene of 250 Sabethes albiprivus B mosquitoes sampled from western Sao Paulo in Brazil. There was very low population structuring among collection sites (Phi(ST) = 0.03, P = 0.04). Historic demographic analyses and the contemporary geographic distribution of genetic diversity suggest that the populations sampled are not at demographic equilibrium. Three distinct mitochondrial clades were observed in the samples, one of which differed significantly in its geographic distribution relative to the other two within a small sampling area (similar to 70 x 35 km). This fact, supported by the inability of maximum likelihood analyses to achieve adequate fits to simple models for the population demography of the species, suggests a more complex history, possibly involving disjunct forest refugia. This hypothesis is supported by a genetic signal of recent population growth, which is expected if population sizes of this forest-obligate insect increased during the forest expansions that followed glacial periods. Although a time frame cannot be reliably inferred for the vicariance event leading to the three genetic clades, molecular clock estimates place this at similar to 1 Myr before present.

Short report: Historical analysis of a near disaster: Anopheles gambiae in Brazil

Attributed to human-mediated dispersal, a species of the Anopheles gambiae complex invaded northeastern Brazil in 1930. This event is considered unique among the intercontinental introductions of disease vectors and the most serious one: ""Few threats to the future health of the Americas have equalled that inherent in the invasion of Brazil, in 1930, by Anopheles gambiae."" Because it was only in the 1960s that An. gambiae was recognized as a species complex now including seven species, the precise species identity of the Brazilian invader remains a mystery. Here we used historical DNA analysis of museum specimens, collected at the time of invasion from Brazil, and aimed at the identification of the Brazilian invader. Our results identify the arid-adapted Anopheles arabiensis as being the actual invading species. Establishing the identity of the species, in addition to being of intrinsic historical interest, can inform future threats of this sort especially in a changing environment. Furthermore, these results highlight the potential danger of human-mediated range expansions of insect disease vectors and the importance of museum collections in retrieving historical information.

Resonant Wave Interactions in the Presence of a Diurnally Varying Heat Source

Resonant interactions among equatorial waves in the presence of a diurnally varying heat source are studied in the context of the diabatic version of the equatorial beta-plane primitive equations for a motionless, hydrostatic, horizontally homogeneous and stably stratified background atmosphere. The heat source is assumed to be periodic in time and of small amplitude [i.e., O(epsilon)] and is prescribed to roughly represent the typical heating associated with deep convection in the tropical atmosphere. In this context, using the asymptotic method of multiple time scales, the free linear Rossby, Kelvin, mixed Rossby-gravity, and inertio-gravity waves, as well as their vertical structures, are obtained as leading-order solutions. These waves are shown to interact resonantly in a triad configuration at the O(e) approximation, and the dynamics of these interactions have been studied in the presence of the forcing. It is shown that for the planetary-scale wave resonant triads composed of two first baroclinic equatorially trapped waves and one barotropic Rossby mode, the spectrum of the thermal forcing is such that only one of the triad components is resonant with the heat source. As a result, to illustrate the role of the diurnal forcing in these interactions in a simplified fashion, two kinds of triads have been analyzed. The first one refers to triads composed of a k = 0 first baroclinic geostrophic mode, which is resonant with the stationary component of the diurnal heat source, and two dispersive modes, namely, a mixed Rossby-gravity wave and a barotropic Rossby mode. The other class corresponds to triads composed of two first baroclinic inertio-gravity waves in which the highest-frequency wave resonates with a transient harmonic of the forcing. The integration of the asymptotic reduced equations for these selected resonant triads shows that the stationary component of the diurnal heat source acts as an ""accelerator"" for the energy exchanges between the two dispersive waves through the excitation of the catalyst geostrophic mode. On the other hand, since in the second class of triads the mode that resonates with the forcing is the most energetically active member because of the energy constraints imposed by the triad dynamics, the results show that the convective forcing in this case is responsible for a longer time scale modulation in the resonant interactions, generating a period doubling in the energy exchanges. The results suggest that the diurnal variation of tropical convection might play an important role in generating low-frequency fluctuations in the atmospheric circulation through resonant nonlinear interactions.

Resonant Wave Interactions in the Equatorial Waveguide

Weakly nonlinear interactions among equatorial waves have been explored in this paper using the adiabatic version of the equatorial beta-plane primitive equations in isobaric coordinates. Assuming rigid lid vertical boundary conditions, the conditions imposed at the surface and at the top of the troposphere were expanded in a Taylor series around two isobaric surfaces in an approach similar to that used in the theory of surface-gravity waves in deep water and capillary-gravity waves. By adopting the asymptotic method of multiple time scales, the equatorial Rossby, mixed Rossby-gravity, inertio-gravity, and Kelvin waves, as well as their vertical structures, were obtained as leading-order solutions. These waves were shown to interact resonantly in a triad configuration at the O(epsilon) approximation. The resonant triads whose wave components satisfy a resonance condition for their vertical structures were found to have the most significant interactions, although this condition is not excluding, unlike the resonant conditions for the zonal wavenumbers and meridional modes. Thus, the analysis has focused on such resonant triads. In general, it was found that for these resonant triads satisfying the resonance condition in the vertical direction, the wave with the highest absolute frequency always acts as an energy source (or sink) for the remaining triad components, as usually occurs in several other physical problems in fluid dynamics. In addition, the zonally symmetric geostrophic modes act as catalyst modes for the energy exchanges between two dispersive waves in a resonant triad. The integration of the reduced asymptotic equations for a single resonant triad shows that, for the initial mode amplitudes characterizing realistic magnitudes of atmospheric flow perturbations, the modes in general exchange energy on low-frequency (intraseasonal and/or even longer) time scales, with the interaction period being dependent upon the initial mode amplitudes. Potential future applications of the present theory to the real atmosphere with the inclusion of diabatic forcing, dissipation, and a more realistic background state are also discussed.

Can retired galaxies mimic active galaxies? Clues from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

The classification of galaxies as star forming or active is generally done in the ([O III]/H beta, [N II]/H alpha) plane. The Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) has revealed that, in this plane, the distribution of galaxies looks like the two wings of a seagull. Galaxies in the right wing are referred to as Seyfert/LINERs, leading to the idea that non-stellar activity in galaxies is a very common phenomenon. Here, we argue that a large fraction of the systems in the right wing could actually be galaxies which stopped forming stars. The ionization in these `retired` galaxies would be produced by hot post-asymptotic giant branch stars and white dwarfs. Our argumentation is based on a stellar population analysis of the galaxies via our STARLIGHT code and on photoionization models using the Lyman continuum radiation predicted for this population. The proportion of LINER galaxies that can be explained in such a way is, however, uncertain. We further show how observational selection effects account for the shape of the right wing. Our study suggests that nuclear activity may not be as common as thought. If retired galaxies do explain a large part of the seagull`s right wing, some of the work concerning nuclear activity in galaxies, as inferred from SDSS data, will have to be revised.