A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Use of Sugar Cane Vinasse to Mitigate Aluminum Toxicity to Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Owing to its toxicity, aluminum (Al), which is one of the most abundant metals, inhibits the productivity of many cultures and affects the microbial metabolism. The aim of this work was to investigate the capacity of sugar cane vinasse to mitigate the adverse effects of Al on cell growth, viability, and budding, as the likely result of possible chelating action. For this purpose, Fleischmann`s yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) was used in growth tests performed in 125-mL Erlenmeyer flasks containing 30 mL of YED medium (5.0 g/L yeast extract plus 20 g/L glucose) supplemented with the selected amounts of either vinasse or Al in the form of AlCl(3) center dot A H(2)O. Without vinasse, the addition of increasing levels of Al up to 54 mg/L reduced the specific growth rate by 18%, whereas no significant reduction was observed in its presence. The toxic effect of Al on S. cerevisiae growth and the mitigating effect of sugar cane vinasse were quantified by the exponential model of Ciftci et al. (Biotechnol Bioeng 25:2007-2023, 1983). The cell viability decreased from 97.7% at the start to 84.0% at the end of runs without vinasse and to 92.3% with vinasse. On the other hand, the cell budding increased from 7.62% at the start to 8.84% at the end of runs without vinasse and to 17.8% with vinasse. These results demonstrate the ability of this raw material to stimulate cell growth and mitigate the toxic effect of Al.

Herbicide distribution in soils of a riparian forest and neighboring sugar cane field

Riparian forests are protected by Brazilian law to preserve rivers and their margins. A sugar cane field adjacent to a strip of young riparian forest bordering an older riparian forest along a stream was used to study the riparian forest as a buffer zone to prevent pesticides pollution. Concentrations of the herbicides diuron, hexazinone and tebuthiuron were determined in different soil layers of a Red Yellow Oxisol during 2003 and 2004. The determination was done by High Performance Liquid Chromatography with reverse phase C-18 column, through two mobile phases. Diuron and hexazinone concentration diminished between the sugar cane and riparian forest as buffer strip demonstrating a protective effect. However, tebuthiuron had about four times higher concentrations in the old riparian forest compared to the other areas. Concentrations were higher in the surface and decreased in deeper soil layers in the old riparian forest suggesting that this herbicide probably was introduced by air pollution. This pesticide concentrated in the canopy could be washed by rain to the soil adjacent to the stream. Our data suggest that climate conditions were responsible for enhanced volatilization exposing the old riparian forest to more air pollution that was captured by the higher canopy. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sugar and ethanol production as a rural development strategy in Brazil: Evidence from the state of Sao Paulo

Sugar and ethanol production are key components of Brazil`s rural development and energy strategies, yet in recent years sugar production has been widely criticized for its environmental and labor practices. This study examines the relationship between rural development and sugarcane, ethanol, and cattle production in the state of Sao Paulo. Our results suggest that the value added components of sugarcane production, which include sugar refining and ethanol production, may have a strong positive affect on local human development in comparison to primary agricultural production activities and other land uses. These results imply that sugar production, when accompanied by a local processing industry can stimulate rural development. However, this paper also highlights the significant environmental and social harms generated by the sugar industry at large, which may undermine its development benefits if not addressed. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

EVALUATION OF FIVE SUGAR CANE PLANTERS

Brazil is the world biggest producer of sugar cane with an area of 7x10(6) hectares. Mainly the system used for planting is the semi-mechanized one, which consists in opening the furrows with a machine, manually allocating the fractioned stalks and then covering the furrows done by the machines. The great amount of human labor used in the semi-mechanized system is becoming harder to find and also more expensive, indicating the need of a fully mechanized operation. Currently in Brazil these agriculture machines industries offers six different types of fully mechanized sugar cane planters (two types of whole stalks for planting and four using mechanized harvested stalks known as billets). All of them plant in two furrows simultaneously in 1.5 m row spacing. This study analyzed five different machines and the following variables: Working Speed (km h(-1)); Effective Capacity (ha h(-1)), Drawbar Force (kgf), Draw Bar Power (in HP), Fuel Consumption (L h(-1)) and Costs (US$ ha(-1)) comparing them with the semi-mechanized system. This research also characterized the stalks for planting as viable gems number (%), non viable gems number (%) and billet length (m). And lastly the mechanized planting system is cheaper than the conventional one and none of the machines has an adequate mechanism for placing the right amount of sugar cane seed.

Effect of modifiers for As, Cu and Pb determinations in sugar-cane spirits by GF AAS

Palladium plus magnesium nitrates with and without Ir, Ru and W were evaluated for the simultaneous determination of As, Cu and Pb in cachaca by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry. For 20 mu L sample, 5 mu L Pd(NO(3))(2) and 3 mu L Mg(NO(3))(2) dispensed together onto the Ir-coated platform of the THGA, analytical curves in the 0-30.0 mu g L(-1) As, 0-1.50 mg L(-1) Cu and 0-60.0 mu g L(-1) Pb were built up and typical linear correlation coefficients were always better than 0.999. The limit of detection was 1.30 mu g L(-1) As, 140 mu g L(-1) Cu and 0.90 mu g L(-1) Pb. As, Cu and Pb contents in 10 cachaca samples agreed with those obtained by ICP-MS. Recoveries of spiked samples varied from 96% to 106% (As), 97% to 112% (Cu) and 92% to 108% (Pb). The relative standard deviation (n = 12) was typically 2.7%, 3.3% and 1.9%. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A costs structure analysis of the Brazilian sugar and ethanol companies

The Brazil consolidated itself as the largest world producer of sugarcane, sugar and ethanol. The creation of the Programa Nacional do Alcool - PROALCOOL and the growing use of cars with flexible motors were some of the factors that helped to motivate still more the production. Evolutions in the agricultural and industrial research did the Brazilian competitiveness in sugar and ethanol globally elevated, what is evidenced when comparing the amount produced at the country and the production costs, which turned a big one differential. Therefore, the administration of costs is of great relevance to the sugar and ethanol companies, for representing a significant rationalization in the production processes, with economy of resources and the reach of better earnings, besides reducing the operational risk pertinent at the fixed costs of production. Thus, the present work has for objective to analyze the costs structure of sugar and ethanol companies of the Center-south area of the country through an empiric-analytical study based in methodologies and concepts extracted of the costs accounting. It is verified that great part of the costs and operational expenses have variable behavior, a positive factor for the sector reducing the operational risk of the activity. The main restraint of this study is the sample of five years and 10% of the number of plants in Brazil that although they represent 30% of the national production, don`t allow the generalization of the model.

Dissolved organic carbon in rainwater from areas heavily impacted by sugar cane burning

This work reports on rainwater dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from Ribeirao Preto (RP) and Araraquara over a period of 3 years. The economies of these two cities, located in Sao Paulo state (Brazil), are based on agriculture and related industries, and the region is strongly impacted by the burning of sugar cane foliage before harvesting. Highest DOC concentrations were obtained when air masses traversed sugar cane fields burned on the same day as the rain event. Significant increases in the DOC volume weighted means (VWM) during the harvest period, for both sites, and a good linear correlation (r=0.83) between DOC and K (a biomass burning marker) suggest that regional scale organic carbon emissions prevail over long-range transport. The DOC VWMs and standard deviations were 272 +/- 22 mu mol L-1 (n=193) and 338 +/- 40 mu mol L-1 (n=80) for RP and Araraquara, respectively, values which are at least two times higher than those reported for other regions influenced by biomass burning, such as the Amazon. These high DOC levels are discussed in terms of agricultural activities, particularly the large usage of biogenic fuels in Brazil, as well as the analytical method used in this work, which includes volatile organic carbon when reporting DOC values. Taking into account rainfall volume, estimated annual rainwater DOC fluxes for RP (4.8 g C m(-2) yr(-1)) and Araraquara (5.4 g C m(-2) yr(-1)) were close to that previously found for the Amazon region (4.8 g C m(-2) yr(-1)). This work also discusses whether previous calculations of the global rainwater carbon flux may have been underestimated, since they did not consider large inputs from biomass combustion sources, and suffered from a possible analytical bias. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative respiratory toxicity of particles produced by traffic and sugar cane burning

The impact of particle emissions by biomass burning is increasing throughout the world. We explored the toxicity of particulate matter produced by sugar cane burning and compared these effects with equivalent mass of traffic-derived particles. For this purpose, BALB/c mice received a single intranasal instillation of either distilled water (C) or total suspended particles (15 mu g) from an urban area (SP group) or biomass burning-derived particles (Bio group). Lung mechanical parameters (total, resistive and viscoelastic pressures, static elastance, and elastic component of viscoelasticity) and histology were analyzed 24h after instillation. Trace elements and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) metabolites of the two sources of particles were determined. All mechanical parameters increased similarly in both pollution groups compared with control, except airway resistive pressure, which increased only in Bio. Both exposed groups showed significantly higher fraction area of alveolar collapse, and influx of polymorphonuclear cells in lung parenchyma than C. The composition analysis of total suspended particles showed higher concentrations of PAHs and lower concentration of metals in traffic than in biomass burning-derived particles. In conclusion, we demonstrated that a single low dose of ambient particles, produced by traffic and sugar cane burning, induced significant alterations in pulmonary mechanics and lung histology in mice. Parenchymal changes were similar after exposure to both particle sources, whereas airway mechanics was more affected by biomass-derived particles. Our results indicate that biomass particles were at least as toxic as those produced by traffic. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Brazilian sugar cane bagasse ashes from the cogeneration industry as active pozzolans for cement manufacture

For proper management of wastes and their possible recycling as raw materials, complete characterization of the materials is necessary to evaluate the main scientific aspects and potential applications. The current paper presents a detailed scientific study of different Brazilian sugar cane bagasse ashes from the cogeneration industry as alternative cementing materials (active addition) for cement manufacture. The results show that the ashes from the industrial process (filter and bottom ones) present different chemical and mineralogical compositions and pozzolanic properties as well. As a consequence of its nature, the kinetic rate constant (K) states that the pozzolanic activity is null for the bottom ash and very low for the filter ash with respect to a sugar cane bagasse ash obtained in the laboratory under controlled burning conditions (reference). The scarce pozzolanic activity showed by ashes could be related to a possible contamination of bagasse wastes (with soils) before their use as alternative combustibles. For this reason, an optimization process for these wastes is advisable, if the ashes are to be used as pozzolans. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of calcining conditions on the microstructure of sugar cane waste ashes (SCWA): Influence in the pozzolanic activation

in this paper a study of calcining conditions on the microstructural features of sugar cane waste ash (SCWA) is carried out. For this purpose, some microparticles (< 90 mu m) of sugar cane straw ash and sugar cane bagasse ash of samples calcined at 800 degrees C and 1000 are studied by combining the bright field and the dark field images with the electron diffraction patterns in the transmission electron microscopy (TEM). It is appreciated that the morphology and texture of these microparticles change when silicon or calcium are present. Furthermore, it is observed that iron oxide (magnetite Fe(3)O(4)) is located in the calcium-rich particles. The microstructural information is correlated with the results of a kinetic-diffusive model that allows the computing of the kinetic parameters of the pozzolanic reaction (mainly the reaction rate constant). The results show that the sugar cane wastes ash calcined at 800 and 1000 degrees C have properties indicative of high pozzolanic activity. The X-ray diffraction patterns, the TEM images and the pozzolanic activity tests show the influence of different factors on the activation of these ashes. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Study of the pozzolanic reaction kinetics in sugar cane bagasse-clay ash/calcium hydroxide system: kinetic parameters and pozzolanic activity

This paper presents a study of the pozzolanic reaction kinetics between calcium hydroxide and a mixture of sugar cane bagasse with 20 and 30% of clay, burned at 800 and 1000 degrees C (SCBCA) by electrical conductivity measurements. A kinetic-diffusive model produced in previous studies by some of the authors was used. The model was fitted to the experimental data, which allowed the computation of the kinetic parameters of the pozzolanic reaction (reaction rate constant and free energy of activation) that rigorously characterised the pozzolanic activity of the materials. The results show that SCBCA demonstrated reactivity and good pozzolanic qualities in the range 800-1000 degrees C.

Insulin resistance of pregnancy involves estrogen-induced repression of muscle GLUT4

Pregnancy is accompanied by hyperestrogenism, however, the role of estrogens in the gestational-induced insulin resistance is unknown. Skeletal muscle plays a fundamental role in this resistance, where GLUT4 regulates glucose uptake. We investigated: (1) effects of oophorectomy and estradiol (E2) on insulin sensitivity and GLUT4 expression. E2 (similar to 200 nM) for 7 days decreased sensitivity, reducing similar to 30% GLUT4 mRNA and protein (P< 0.05) and plasma membrane expression in muscle; (2) the expression of ER alpha and ER beta in L6 myotubes, showing that both coexpress in the same nucleus; (3) effects of E2 on GLUT4 in L6, showing a time- and dose-dependent response. High concentration (100 nM) for 6 days reduced similar to 25% GLUT4 mRNA and protein (P < 0.05). Concluding, E2 regulates GLUT4 in muscle, and at high concentrations, such as in pregnancy, reduces GLUT4 expression and, in vivo, decreases insulin sensitivity. Thus, hyperestrogenism may be involved in the pregnancy-induced insulin resistance and/or gestational diabetes. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Screening for endophytic nitrogen-fixing bacteria in Brazilian sugar cane varieties used in organic farming and description of Stenotrophomonas pavanii sp. nov.

A Gram-negative, rod-shaped, non-spore-forming and nitrogen-fixing bacterium, designated ICB 89(T), was isolated from stems of a Brazilian sugar cane variety widely used in organic farming. 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis revealed that strain ICB 89(T) belonged to the genus Stenotrophomonas and was most closely related to Stenotrophomonas maltophilia LMG 958(T), Stenotrophomonas rhizophila LMG 22075(T), Stenotrophomonas nitritireducens L2(T), [Pseudomonas] geniculata ATCC 19374(T), [Pseudomonas] hibiscicola ATCC 19867(T) and [Pseudomonas] beteli ATCC 19861(T). DNA-DNA hybridization together with chemotaxonomic data and biochemical characteristics allowed the differentiation of strain ICB 89(T) from its nearest phylogenetic neighbours. Therefore, strain ICB 89(T) represents a novel species, for which the name Stenotrophomonas pavanii sp. nov. is proposed. The type strain is ICB 89(T) (=CBMAI 564(T) =LMG 25348(T)).

Enzymatic hydrolysis of pretreated sugar cane bagasse using Penicillium funiculosum and Trichoderma harzianum cellulases

In this study, we investigated the enzymatic hydrolysis of pretreated sugarcane bagasse using eight different enzymatic blends obtained from concentrated crude enzyme extracts produced by Penicillium funiculosum and Trichoderma harzianum as well as from the extracts in combination with a commercial enzymatic cocktail. The influence of different levels of biomass delignification, degree of crystallinity of lignicellulose, composition of enzymatic activities and BSA on enzymatic hydrolysis yields (HYs) was evaluated. Our X-ray diffraction studies showed that crystallinity of lignocellulose is not a key determinant of its recalcitrance toward enzymatic hydrolysis. In fact, under the experimental conditions of our study, an increase in crystallinity of lignocellulosic samples resulted in increased glucose release by enzymatic hydrolysis. Furthermore, under the same conditions, the addition of BSA had no significant effect on enzymatic hydrolysis. The most efficient enzyme blends were obtained by mixing a commercial enzymatic cocktail with P. funiculosum or T. harzianum cellulase preparations (HYs above 97%) followed by the concentrated extract of P. funiculosum alone (HY= 88.5%). Increased hydrolytic efficiencies appeared to correlate with having an adequate level of both beta-glucosidase and xylanase activities in the blends. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.