Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Banana fiber craftwork in the perspective of multifunctionality in quilombola communities

This study pursued an analysis of a modality of craftwork activity developed as an alternative for occupation and income using banana crop wastes. It is the banana fiber craftwork. The experience was developed in quilombola communities in the region of Vale do Ribeira, S (a) over tildeo Paulo State, Brazil. The correlation between the craftwork and other activities used as a source of income, like organic banana and other land crops, and rural tourism, was established. Using multifunctionality as a reference, it was intended to focus on the craftwork. activity within the dynamics of rural families in their territories, considering the economic, social, cultural and environmental issues involved in the quilombola`s activities. This permitted the evaluation of their contributions to the maintainance of the life conditions of these communities.

Crop rotation in center-pivot for phytonematode control: density variation, pathogenicity and crop loss estimation

Crop rotation in center-pivot for phytonematode control: density variation, pathogenicity and crop loss estimation A field study conducted over three consecutive years, on a farm using crop rotation system under center-pivot and infested with the nematodes Pratylenchus brachyurus, P. zeae, Meloidogyne incognita, Paratrichodorus minor, Helicotylenchus dihystera, Mesocriconema ornata and M. onoense, demonstrated that intensive crop systems provide conditions for the maintenance of high densities of polyphagous phytonematodes. Of the crops established on the farm (cotton, maize, soybean and cowpea), cotton and soybean suffered the most severe crop losses, caused respectively by M. incognita and P. brachyurus. Since maize is a good host for both nematodes, but tolerant of M. incognita, its exclusion from cropping system would be favorable to the performance of cotton, soybean and cowpea. Results from experiments carried out in controlled conditions confirmed the pathogenicity of P. brachyurus on cotton. Additional management with genetic resistance was useful in fields infested with M. incognita, although the soybean performance was affected by low resistance of the cultivars used for P. brachyurus. In conclusion, crop rotation must be carefully planned in areas infested with polyphagous nematodes, specifically in the case of occurrence of two or more major pathogenic nematodes.

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390. This work aims to characterize the water use of maize hybrid DKB 390 under suitable conditions of irrigation for both sufficient and below-optimal situations of nitrogen supply. Crop coefficient values for different stages are also presented as a result, in order to provide the basis for crop water budget and management throughout the cycle. A field experiment was carried Out during the main season, in which biomass, soil moisture, leaf area, climate data and light transmittance were evaluated. These have allowed deriving water balance, use and efficiency. The mentioned genotype requires around 600 nun for high yield targets, being less efficient when led under below-optimal nitrogen fertilization.

Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics in an Oxisol as Affected by Liming and Crop Residues under No-Till

The short-term effects of surface lime application and black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb.) residues, with or without N fertilization, were evaluated in a long-term no-till (NT) system on a sandy clay loam, a kaolinitic, thermic Typic Hapludox from the state of Parana, Brazil. The main plot treatments were: control and dolomitic lime applied on soil surface at 8 Mg ha(-1). Three treatments with crop residues were evaluated on the subplots: (i) fallow, (ii) black oat residues, and (iii) black oat residues aft er N fertilization at 180 kg ha(-1). Black oat dry biomass was not affected by the treatments during 3 yr. Surface liming increased soil pH, microbial biomass, microbial activity, and bacterial/fungal ratio at the soil surface (0-5 cm), resulting in increased amino acid turnover, water-soluble humic substances formation, and N mineralization and nitrification. While the application of black oat did increase the soil pH, overall it had much less effect on soil biological processes and C and N pools than did lime. We concluded that black oat cannot replace the need for lime to optimize crop production in these tropical NT systems. In the long term, however, black oat should aid in the amelioration of acidity and replenishment of soil organic C pools and should help reduce erosion. Overall, this study suggests that overapplication of inorganic fertilizer N may occur in some tropical NT systems. Further experiments are required in NT systems to investigate the use of slow-release N fertilizers in combination with lime and black oat as a mechanism to reduce acidification and promote sustainability.

Reference Values of Tissue Doppler Imaging and Pulsed Doppler Echocardiography for Analysis of Left Ventricular Diastolic Function in Healthy Adults

To determine reference values for tissue Doppler imaging (TDI) and pulsed Doppler echocardiography for left ventricular diastolic function analysis in a healthy Brazilian adult population. Observations were based on a randomly selected healthy population from the city of Vitoria, Espirito Santo, Brazil. Healthy volunteers (n = 275, 61.7% women) without prior histories of cardiovascular disease underwent transthoracic echocardiography. We analyzed 175 individuals by TDI and evaluated mitral annulus E`- and A`-waves from the septum (S) and lateral wall (L) to calculate E`/A` ratios. Using pulsed Doppler echocardiography, we further analyzed the mitral E- and A-waves, E/A ratios, isovolumetric relaxation times (IRTs), and deceleration times (DTs) of 275 individuals. Pulsed Doppler mitral inflow mean values for men were as follows: E-wave: 71 +/- 16 cm/sec, A-wave: 68 +/- 15 cm/sec, IRT: 74.8 +/- 9.2 ms, DT: 206 +/- 32.3 ms, E/A ratio: 1.1 +/- 0.3. Pulsed Doppler mitral inflow mean values for women were as follows: E-wave: 76 +/- 17, A-wave: 69 +/- 14 cm/sec, IRT: 71.2 +/- 10.5 ms, DT: 197 +/- 33.3 ms, E/A ratio: 1.1 +/- 0.3. IRT and DT values were higher in men than in women (P = 0.04 and P = 0.007, respectively). TDI values in men were as follows: E`S: 11 +/- 3 cm/sec, A`S: 13 +/- 2 cm/sec, E`S/A`S: 0.89 +/- 0.2, E`L: 14 +/- 3 cm/sec, A`L: 14 +/- 2 cm/sec, E`L/A`L: 1.1 +/- 0.4. E-wave/ E`S ratio: 6.9 +/- 2.2; E-wave / E`L ratio: 4.9 +/- 1.7. In this study, we determined pulsed Doppler and TDI derived parameters for left ventricular diastolic function in a large sample of healthy Brazilian adults. (Echocardiography 2010;27:777-782).

Concepts and determination of reference values for human biomonitoring of environmental contaminants

Human biomonitoring (HBM) of environmental contaminants plays an important role in estimating exposure and evaluating risk, and thus it has been increasingly applied in the environmental field. The results of HBM must be compared with reference values ( RV). The term ""reference values"" has always been related to the interpretation of clinical laboratory tests. For physicians, RV indicate ""normal values"" or ""limits of normal""; in turn, toxicologists prefer the terms ""background values"" or ""baseline values"" to refer to the presence of contaminants in biological fluids. This discrepancy leads to the discussion concerning which should be the population selected to determine RV. Whereas clinical chemistry employs an altered health state as the main exclusion criterion to select a reference population ( that is, a ""healthy"" population would be selected), in environmental toxicology the exclusion criterion is the abnormal exposure to xenobiotics. Therefore, the choice of population to determine RV is based on the very purpose of the RV to be determined. The present paper discusses the concepts and methodology used to determine RV for biomarkers of chemical environmental contaminants.

A longitudinal study on the transmission dynamics of human Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum chagasi infection in Amazonian Brazil, with special reference to its prevalence and incidence

This was a longitudinal study carried out during a period over 2 years with a cohort of 946 individuals of both sexes, aged 1 year and older, from an endemic area of American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL) in Para State, Brazil. The object was to analyze the transmission dynamics of human Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum chagasi infection based principally on the prevalence and incidence. For diagnosis of the infection, the indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT) and leishmanin skin test (LST) were performed with amastigote and promastigote antigens of the parasite, respectively. The prevalence by LST (11.2%) was higher (p < 0.0001) than that (3.4%) by IFAT, and the combined prevalence by both tests was 12.6%. The incidences by LST were also higher (p < 0.05) than those by IFAT at 6 (4.7% A- 0.6%), 12 (4.7% A- 2.7%), and 24 months (2.9% A- 0.3%). Moreover, there were no differences (p > 0.05) between the combined incidences by both tests on the same point surveys, 5.2%, 6.3%, and 3.6%. During the study, 12 infected persons showed high IFAT IgG titers with no LST reactions: five children and two adults developed AVL (2,560-10,120), and two children and three adults developed subclinical oligosymptomatic infection (1,280-2,560). The combined tests diagnosed a total of 231 cases of infection leading to an accumulated prevalence of 24.4%.

HER2 Testing in Breast Carcinoma Very Low Concordance Rate Between Reference and Local Laboratories in Brazil

Breast cancer accounts for approximately one quarter of all cancers in females. HER2 gene amplification or HER2 protein overexpression, detected in about 20% of breast carcinomas, predicts a more aggressive clinical course and determines eligibility for targeted therapy with trastuzumab. HER2 testing has become an essential part of the clinical evaluation of all breast carcinoma patients, and accurate HER2 results are critical in identifying patients who may be benefited from targeted therapy. This study investigated the concordance in the results of HER2 immunohistochemistry assays performed in 500 invasive breast carcinomas between a reference laboratory and 149 local laboratories from all geographic regions of Brazil. Our results showed an overall poor concordance (171 of 500 cases, 34.2%) regarding HER2 results between local and reference laboratories, which may be related to the low-volume load of HER2 assays, inexperience with HER2 scoring system, and/or technical issues related to immunohistochemistry in local laboratories. Standardization of HER2 testing with rigorous quality control measures by local laboratories is highly recommended to avoid erroneous treatment of breast cancer patients.

Fetal tricuspid valve Doppler at 11-13 weeks and 6 days: reference values and reproducibility

Objective To determine normal blood flow velocities across the fetal tricuspid valve (TV) at 11-13 weeks and 6 days of gestation and to examine the reproducibility of these measurements. Methods A prospective study involving 166 normal singleton pregnancies examined at 11-13 weeks and 6 days was carried out. Descriptive analysis of E- and A-waves` maximum velocities, E/A ratio, duration of the cardiac cycle (C) and diastole (D) and D/C ratio were calculated. Intraobserver and interobserver agreement analysis was performed in a subgroup of 12 cases. Results Average (+/- SD) flow velocities were: E-wave, 25.0 (+/- 4.6) cm/s; A-wave. 42.9 (+/- 5.9) cm/s; E/A, 0.58 (+/- 0.07); cardiac cycle, 390 (+/- 21.1) ms; diastole, 147 (+/- 18) ms and D/C, 0.38 (+/- 0.04). Significant correlation was observed between all parameters (except A-wave) and gestational age but not with nuchal translucency (NT). Intraclass correlation coefficients (interobserver, intraobsever examiner I and intraobserver examiner 2) were: E-wave, 0.53, 0.53 and 0.64; A-wave, 0.45, 0.46 and 0.49; cardiac cycle, 0.70, 0.79 and 0.84 and diastole, 0.63, 0.85 and 0.82, respectively. Conclusions The present study establishes normal Doppler parameters for blood flow across the TV at 11 - 13 weeks and 6 days and demonstrates that these parameters do not correlate with NT measurement and have good/moderate reproducibility. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

LONGITUDINAL REFERENCE VALUES FOR DUCTUS VENOSUS DOPPLER IN LOW-RISK PREGNANCIES

The aim of this study was to establish normal ranges of blood flow velocities and indices in the fetal ductus venosus (DV) during the second half of normal pregnancy. A Doppler study of 60 healthy pregnant women without fetal pathologies was performed during the second half of pregnancy. The peak systolic velocity (PSV), peak diastolic velocity (PDV), maximum velocity during atrial contraction (VAC), peak systolic velocity/maximum velocity during atrial contraction (S/A ratio), pulsatility index for the vein (PIV), preload index (PLI) and velocity index for the vein (VIV) were calculated from the DV at 4-week intervals. A significant increase in PSV, PDV and VAC was observed from the 20-23(6/7) to the 28-31(6/7) weeks, with stabilization of values until the end of the pregnancy. On the other hand, the study showed a significant decrease for the S/A ratio, PIV, PLI and VIV from the 20-23(6/7) to the 28-31(6/7) weeks and remaining stable from then until term. (E-mail:dralemar@uol.com.br) (C) 2010 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology.

Reference distribution of the bioelectrical impedance vector in healthy term newborns

Bioelectrical impedance vector analysis (BIVA) is a new method that is used for the routine monitoring of the variation in body fluids and nutritional status with assumptions regarding body composition values. The aim of the present study was to determine bivariate tolerance intervals of the whole-body impedance vector and to describe phase angle (PA) values for healthy term newborns aged 7-28 d. This descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted on healthy term neonates born at a low-risk public maternity. General and anthropometric neonatal data and bioelectrical impedance data (800 mu A-50 kHz) were obtained. Bivariate vector analysis was conducted with the resistance-reactance (RXc) graph method. The BIVA software was used to construct the graphs. The study was conducted on 109 neonates (52.3% females) who were born at term, adequate for gestational age, exclusively breast-fed and aged 13 (SD 3.6) d. We constructed one standard, reference, RXc-score graph and RXc-tolerance ellipses (50, 75 and 95 %) that can be used with any analyser. Mean PA was 3.14 (SD 0.43)degrees (3.12 (SD 0.39)degrees for males and 3.17 (SD 0.48)degrees for females). Considering the overlapping of ellipses of males and females with the general distribution, a graph for newborns aged 7-28 d with the same reference tolerance ellipse was defined for boys and girls. The results differ from those reported in the literature probably, in part, due to the ethnic differences in body composition. BIVA and PA permit an assessment without the need to know body weight and the prediction error of conventional impedance formulas.

Hyperkalemia: A quick reference

This article serves as a quick reference for hyperkalemia. Guidelines for analysis and causes, signs, and a stepwise approach are presented.