Risk optimization of a steel frame communications tower subject to tornado winds

The structural engineering community in Brazil faces new challenges with the recent occurrence of high intensity tornados. Satellite surveillance data shows that the area covering the south-east of Brazil, Uruguay and some of Argentina is one of the world most tornado-prone areas, second only to the infamous tornado alley in central United States. The design of structures subject to tornado winds is a typical example of decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Structural design involves finding a good balance between the competing goals of safety and economy. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimum balance between these goals in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper, reliability-based risk optimization is used to find the optimal safety coefficient that minimizes the total expected cost of a steel frame communications tower, subject to extreme storm and tornado wind loads. The technique is not new, but it is applied to a practical problem of increasing interest to Brazilian structural engineers. The problem is formulated in the partial safety factor format used in current design codes, with all additional partial factor introduced to serve as optimization variable. The expected cost of failure (or risk) is defined as the product of a. limit state exceedance probability by a limit state exceedance cost. These costs include costs of repairing, rebuilding, and paying compensation for injury and loss of life. The total expected failure cost is the sum of individual expected costs over all failure modes. The steel frame communications, tower subject of this study has become very common in Brazil due to increasing mobile phone coverage. The study shows that optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the cost (or consequences) of failure. Since failure consequences depend oil actual tower location, it turn,,; out that different optimum designs should be used in different locations. Failure consequences are also different for the different parties involved in the design, construction and operation of the tower. Hence, it is important that risk is well understood by the parties involved, so that proper contracts call be made. The investigation shows that when non-structural terms dominate design costs (e.g, in residential or office buildings) it is not too costly to over-design; this observation is in agreement with the observed practice for non-optimized structural systems. In this situation, is much easier to loose money by under-design. When by under-design. When structural material cost is a significant part of design cost (e.g. concrete dam or bridge), one is likely to lose significantmoney by over-design. In this situation, a cost-risk-benefit optimization analysis is highly recommended. Finally, the study also shows that under time-varying loads like tornados, the optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the selected design life.

Threat of Dengue to Blood Safety in Dengue-Endemic Countries

Dengue, the most common arbovirus infection globally, is transmitted by mosquito vectors. Healthcare-related transmission, including transmission by blood products, has been documented, although the frequency of these occurrences is unknown. Dengue is endemic to Singapore, a city-state in Asia. Using mathematical modeling, we estimated the risk for dengue-infected blood transfusions in Singapore in 2005 to be 1.625-6/10,000 blood transfusions, assuming a ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic infections of 2:1 to 10:1. However, the level of viremia required to cause clinical dengue cases is person-dependent and unknown. Further studies are needed to establish the magnitude of the threat that dengue poses to blood safety in countries where it is endemic. It will then be possible to assess whether screening is feasible and to identify approaches that are most cost-effective on the basis of characteristics of local populations and seasonality of dengue.

A Dynamic Analysis of Tuberculosis Dissemination to Improve Control and Surveillance

Background: Detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions among biological, environmental, social, and economic factors that favour the spread of certain diseases is extremely useful for designing effective control strategies. Diseases like tuberculosis that kills somebody every 15 seconds in the world, require methods that take into account the disease dynamics to design truly efficient control and surveillance strategies. The usual and well established statistical approaches provide insights into the cause-effect relationships that favour disease transmission but they only estimate risk areas, spatial or temporal trends. Here we introduce a novel approach that allows figuring out the dynamical behaviour of the disease spreading. This information can subsequently be used to validate mathematical models of the dissemination process from which the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for this spreading could be inferred. Methodology/Principal Findings: The method presented here is based on the analysis of the spread of tuberculosis in a Brazilian endemic city during five consecutive years. The detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of the yearly geo-referenced data, using different characteristic times of the disease evolution, allowed us to trace the temporal path of the aetiological agent, to locate the sources of infection, and to characterize the dynamics of disease spreading. Consequently, the method also allowed for the identification of socio-economic factors that influence the process. Conclusions/Significance: The information obtained can contribute to more effective budget allocation, drug distribution and recruitment of human skilled resources, as well as guiding the design of vaccination programs. We propose that this novel strategy can also be applied to the evaluation of other diseases as well as other social processes.

Incorporation of Real-Time PCR into Routine Public Health Surveillance of Culture Negative Bacterial Meningitis in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Real-time (RT)-PCR increases diagnostic yield for bacterial meningitis and is ideal for incorporation into routine surveillance in a developing country. We validated a multiplex RT-PCR assay for Streptococcus pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis, and Haemophilus influenzae in Brazil. Risk factors for being culture-negative, RT-PCR positive were determined. The sensitivity of RT-PCR in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) was 100% (95% confidence limits, 96.0%-100%) for N. meningitidis, 97.8% (85.5%-99.9%) for S. pneumoniae, and 66.7% (9.4%-99.2%) for H. influenzae. Specificity ranged from 98.9% to 100%. Addition of RT-PCR to routine microbiologic methods increased the yield for detection of S. pneumoniae, N. meningitidis, and H. influenzae cases by 52%, 85%, and 20%, respectively. The main risk factor for being culture negative and RT-PCR positive was presence of antibiotic in CSF (odds ratio 12.2, 95% CI 5.9-25.0). RT-PCR using CSF was highly sensitive and specific and substantially added to measures of meningitis disease burden when incorporated into routine public health surveillance in Brazil.

Determination of the minimum value of the safety factor from geodesic Alfven eigenmodes in Joint European Torus

An analysis of the experimental conditions under which low-frequency (70-150 kHz) Alfven eigertmodes (AE) are excited during the monster sawtooth in Joint European Torus [F Romanelli et al, Proceedings of the 22nd IAEA Fusion Energy Conference, Geneva, Switzerland, 2008] is presented for the specific case of a discharge with ion cyclotron heating (5 MW) Using a simplified AE model for modes excited at the Alfven wave continuum maximum with geodesic corrections taken into account, the temporal evolution of the value of the safety factor q(0) at the magnetic axis is determined We describe a new scheme to determine the time variation of q(0) that works under conditions in which other standard diagnostics, such as the motional Stark effect do not give reliable results such as during a monster sawtooth [doi 10 1063/1 3494212]

Chemical composition of tomato seeds affected by conventional and organic production systems

Tomato is amongst the most consumed vegetables in the world, not only for its culinary versatility but also for its high nutritional value. In the last years, consumers have shown an increased concern regarding food origin and safety. The organic tomato production has been a promising alternative for the consumer offering a safer food in relation to environmental, social and nutritional aspects. This study assessed the chemical composition of tomato seeds produced in both conventional and organic systems by INAA. The results showed significant differences (P <= 0.05) in the mass fractions of Br, Cs, Eu, Fe, K, Mo, Na, Rb and Sm between both systems, indicating influence of the crop management adopted in the different tomato production systems.

Surveillance Programme for Healthcare Associated Infections in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Implementation and the first three years` results

Governmental programmes should be developed to collect and analyse data on healthcare associated infections (HAIs). This study describes the healthcare setting and both the implementation and preliminary results of the Programme for Surveillance of Healthcare Associated Infections in the State of Sao Paulo (PSHAISP), Brazil, from 2004 to 2006. Characterisation of the healthcare settings was carried out using a national database. The PSHAISP was implemented using components for acute care hospitals (ACH) or long term care facilities (LTCF). The components for surveillance in ACHs were surgical unit, intensive care unit and high risk nursery. The infections included in the surveillance were surgical site infection in clean surgery, pneumonia, urinary tract infection and device-associated bloodstream infections. Regarding the LTCF component, pneumonia, scabies and gastroenteritis in all inpatients were reported. In the first year of the programme there were 457 participating healthcare settings, representing 51.1% of the hospitals registered in the national database. Data obtained in this study are the initial results and have already been used for education in both surveillance and the prevention of HAI. The results of the PSHAISP show that it is feasible to collect data from a large number of hospitals. This will assist the State of Sao Paulo in assessing the impact of interventions and in resource allocation. (C) 2010 The Hospital Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Efficacy and safety of concurrent training in systemic sclerosis

Pinto, ALS, Oliveira, NC, Gualano, B, Christmann, RB, Painelli, VS, Artioli, GG, Prado, DML, and Lima, FR. Efficacy and safety of concurrent training in systemic sclerosis. J Strength Cond Res 25(5): 1423-1428, 2011-The optimal training model for patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) is unknown. In this study, we aimed to investigate the effects of a 12-week combined resistance and aerobic training program (concurrent training) in SSc patients. Eleven patients with no evidence of pulmonary involvement were recruited for the exercise program. Lower and upper limb dynamic strengths (assessed by 1 repetition maximum [1RM] of a leg press and bench press, respectively), isometric strength (assessed by back pull and handgrip tests), balance and mobility (assessed by the timed up-and-go test), muscle function (assessed by the timed-stands test), Rodnan score, digital ulcers, Rayland`s phenomenon, and blood markers of muscle inflammation (creatine kinase and aldolase) were assessed at baseline and after the 12-week program. Exercise training significantly enhanced the 1RM leg press (41%) and 1RM bench press (13%) values and back pull (24%) and handgrip strength (11%). Muscle function was also improved (15%), but balance and mobility were not significantly changed. The time-to-exhaustion was increased (46.5%, p = 0.0004), the heart rate at rest condition was significantly reduced, and the workload and time of exercise at ventilatory thresholds and peak of exercise were increased. However, maximal and submaximal (V)over dotO(2) were unaltered (p > 0.05). The Rodnan score was unchanged, and muscle enzymes remained within normal levels. No change was observed in digital ulcers and Raynaud`s phenomenon. This is the first study to demonstrate that a 12-week concurrent training program is safe and substantially improves muscle strength, function, and aerobic capacity in SSc patients.

Safety of a railway wheelset - derailment simulation with increasing lateral force

The motivation for this research is to make a comparison between dynamic results of a free railway wheelset derailment and safety limits. For this purpose, a numerical simulation of a wheelset derailment submitted to increasing lateral force is used to compare with the safety limit, using different criteria. A simplified wheelset model is used to simulate derailments with different adhesion conditions. The contact force components, including the longitudinal and spin effects, are identified in a steady-state condition on the verge of a derailment. The contact force ratios are used in a three-dimensional (3D) analytical formula to calculate the safety limits. Simulation results obtained with two contact methods were compared with the published results and the safety limit was identified with the two criteria. Results confirm Nadal`s conservative aspect and show that safety 3D analytical formula presents slightly higher safety limits for lower friction coefficients and smaller limits for high friction, in comparison with the simulation results with Fastsim.

Vehicle Dynamic Safety in Measured Rough Pavement

Dynamic vehicle behavior is used to identify safe traffic speed limits. The proposed methodology is based on the vehicle vertical wheel contact force response excited by measured pavement irregularities on the frequency domain. A quarter-car model is used to identify vehicle dynamic behavior. The vertical elevation of an unpaved road surface has been measured. The roughness spectral density is quantified as ISO Level C. Calculations for the vehicle inertance function were derived by using the vertical contact force transfer function weighed by the pavement spectral density roughness function in the frequency domain. The statistical contact load variation is obtained from the vehicle inertance density function integration. The vehicle safety behavior concept is based on its handling ability properties. The ability to generate tangential forces on the wheel/road contact interface is the key to vehicle handling. This ability is related to tire/pavement contact forces. A contribution to establish a traffic safety speed limit is obtained from the likelihood of the loss of driveability. The results show that at speeds faster than 25 km/h the likelihood of tire contact loss is possible when traveling on the measured road type. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.19435436.0000216. (C) 2011 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Development of Control Systems for Safety Instrumented Systems

Safety Instrumented Systems (SIS) are designed to prevent and / or mitigate accidents, avoiding undesirable high potential risk scenarios, assuring protection of people`s health, protecting the environment and saving costs of industrial equipment. The design of these systems require formal methods for ensuring the safety requirements, but according material published in this area, has not identified a consolidated procedure to match the task. This sense, this article introduces a formal method for diagnosis and treatment of critical faults based on Bayesian network (BN) and Petri net (PN). This approach considers diagnosis and treatment for each safety instrumented function (SIF) including hazard and operability (HAZOP) study in the equipment or system under control. It also uses BN and Behavioral Petri net (BPN) for diagnoses and decision-making and the PN for the synthesis, modeling and control to be implemented by Safety Programmable Logic Controller (PLC). An application example considering the diagnosis and treatment of critical faults is presented and illustrates the methodology proposed.

Consumer`s evaluation of the effects of gamma irradiation and natural antioxidants on general acceptance of frozen beef burger

The effect of addition of rosemary and oregano extracts on the sensory quality of irradiated beef burger was investigated. Batches of beef burgers were prepared with 400 ppm of rosemary or oregano extract and a group prepared with 200 ppm of synthetic butyl-hydroxytoluene (BHT)/butyl-hydroxy-anisol (BHA) was used as a control. Half of each formulation was irradiated at the maximum dose allowed for frozen meat (7 kGy). Samples were kept under frozen conditions (-20 degrees C) during the whole storage period, including during irradiation. Two analyses were performed after 20 and 90 days to verify the influence of the addition of the different types of antioxidants and the effect of irradiation and storage time on the acceptance of the product. Thirty-three and thirty-four untrained panelists were invited to participate in the first and second test, respectively. A structured hedonic scale ranging from 1 to 9 points was used in both analyses. BHT/BHA formulation obtained the highest score (6.73) and regarding the natural antioxidants, oregano received better acceptance (6.36). Irradiated samples formulated with oregano received a lower score, 6.03 in the first test and 5.06 in the second one, compared to the non-irradiated sample (6.36 and 5.79). In the second test (90 days), the sample formulated with BHT/BHA and which was irradiated received a higher score (6.59) when compared to the non-irradiated one (5.85). In both tests, the irradiated samples formulated with rosemary extract obtained a better score compared to the non-irradiated one, the scores being 5.00-3.82 and 5.00-3.76 in the first and second test, respectively. Our results allowed us to conclude that the natural antioxidants, rosemary and oregano extracts, present a good alternative for replacing synthetic additives in food industries, and that the irradiation process, in some cases, may help to enhance the sensory quality of food. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevalence and counts of Salmonella spp. in minimally processed vegetables in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Minimally processed vegetables (MPV) may be important vehicles of Salmonella spp. and cause disease. This study aimed at detecting and enumerating Salmonella spp. in MPV marketed in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. A total of 512 samples of MPV packages collected in retail stores were tested for Salmonella spp. and total coliforms and Escherichia coil as indication of the hygienic status. Salmonella spp. was detected in four samples, two using the detection method and two using the counting method, where the results were 8.8 x 10(2) CFU/g and 2.4 x 10(2) CFU/g. The serovars were Salmonella Typhimurium (three samples) and Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica O:47:z4,z23:- (one sample). Fourteen samples (2.7%) presented counts of E. coli above the maximum limit established by the Brazilian regulation for MPV (10(2) CFU/g). Therefore, tightened surveillance and effective intervention strategies are necessary in order to address consumers and governments concerns on safety of MPV. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella spp. in raw milk produced in Brazil: Occurrence and interference of indigenous microbiota in their isolation and development

This study aimed to verify the occurrence of Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella spp. in raw milk produced in Brazil. On account of the poor microbiological quality of this product, possible interference from the indigenous microbiota in these pathogens was also evaluated. Two-hundred and ten raw milk samples were collected in four important milk-producing areas in Brazil, tested for L. monocytogenes and Salmonella spp. presence, and for enumeration of indicator microorganisms: mesophilic aerobes, total coliforms and Escherichia coli. The interference of the indigenous microbiota in the isolation procedures was also tested, as well the frequency of naturally occurring raw milk strains with antagonistic activity against both pathogens. The pathogens were not isolated in any raw milk sample, but poor microbiological quality was confirmed by the high levels of indicator microorganisms. When present at high levels, the indigenous microbiota generated an evident interference in the methodologies of L. monocytogenes and Salmonella spp. isolation, mainly when the pathogens appeared at low levels. Three-hundred and sixty raw milk strains were tested for antagonistic activity against both pathogens, and 91 (25.3%) showed inhibitory activity against L. monocytogenes and 33 (9.2%) against Salmonella spp. The majority of the antagonistic strains were identified as Lactic Acid Bacteria species, mainly Lactococcus lactis subsp. lactis and Enterococcus faecium, known by antimicrobial substance production.

Electron beam irradiation of Matricaria chamomilla L. for microbial decontamination

Wild chamomile (Matricaria chamomilla L.) is one of the most popular herbal materials with both internal and external use to cure different health disturbances. As a consequence of its origin, chamomile could carry various microbial contaminants which offer different hazards to the final consumer. Reduction of the microbial load to the in force regulation limits represents an important phase in the technological process of vegetal materials, and the electron beam treatment might be an efficient alternative to the classical methods of hygienic quality assurance. The purpose of the study was to analyze the potential application of the electron beam treatment in order to assure the microbial safety of the wild chamomile. Samples of chamomile dry inflorescences were treated in electron beam (e-beam) of 6 MeV mean energy, at room temperature and ambient pressure. Some loss of the chemical compounds with bioactive role could be noticed, but the number of microorganisms decreased as a function on the absorbed dose. Consequently, the microbial quality of studied vegetal material inflorescences was improved by e-beam. irradiation. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.