An oracle approach for interaction neighborhood estimation in random fields

We consider the problem of interaction neighborhood estimation from the partial observation of a finite number of realizations of a random field. We introduce a model selection rule to choose estimators of conditional probabilities among natural candidates. Our main result is an oracle inequality satisfied by the resulting estimator. We use then this selection rule in a two-step procedure to evaluate the interacting neighborhoods. The selection rule selects a small prior set of possible interacting points and a cutting step remove from this prior set the irrelevant points. We also prove that the Ising models satisfy the assumptions of the main theorems, without restrictions on the temperature, on the structure of the interacting graph or on the range of the interactions. It provides therefore a large class of applications for our results. We give a computationally efficient procedure in these models. We finally show the practical efficiency of our approach in a simulation study.

A simple way to introduce fibers into FEM models

This communication proposes a simple way to introduce fibers into finite element modelling. This is a promising formulation to deal with fiber-reinforced composites by the finite element method (FEM), as it allows the consideration of short or long fibers placed arbitrarily inside a continuum domain (matrix). The most important feature of the formulation is that no additional degree of freedom is introduced into the pre-existent finite element numerical system to consider any distribution of fiber inclusions. In other words, the size of the system of equations used to solve a non-reinforced medium is the same as the one used to solve the reinforced counterpart. Another important characteristic is the reduced work required by the user to introduce fibers, avoiding `rebar` elements, node-by-node geometrical definitions or even complex mesh generation. An additional characteristic of the technique is the possibility of representing unbounded stresses at the end of fibers using a finite number of degrees of freedom. Further studies are required for non-linear applications in which localization may occur. Along the text the linear formulation is presented and the bounded connection between fibers and continuum is considered. Four examples are presented, including non-linear analysis, to validate and show the capabilities of the formulation. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

On the basic reproduction number and the topological properties of the contact network: An epidemiological study in mainly locally connected cellular automata

We study the spreading of contagious diseases in a population of constant size using susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) models described in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and probabilistic cellular automata (PCA). In the PCA model, each individual (represented by a cell in the lattice) is mainly locally connected to others. We investigate how the topological properties of the random network representing contacts among individuals influence the transient behavior and the permanent regime of the epidemiological system described by ODE and PCA. Our main conclusions are: (1) the basic reproduction number (commonly called R(0)) related to a disease propagation in a population cannot be uniquely determined from some features of transient behavior of the infective group; (2) R(0) cannot be associated to a unique combination of clustering coefficient and average shortest path length characterizing the contact network. We discuss how these results can embarrass the specification of control strategies for combating disease propagations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of oxygen mass transfer coefficient in simple and extractive fermentation systems

Aeration and agitation are important variables to ensure effective oxygen transfer rate during aerobic bioprocesses: therefore, the knowledge of the volumetric mass transfer coefficient (k(L)a) is required. In view of selecting the optimum oxygen requirements for extractive fermentation in aqueous two-phase system (ATPS), the k(L)a values in a typical ATPS medium were compared in this work with those in distilled water and in a simple fermentation medium. in the absence of biomass. Aeration and agitation were selected as the independent variables using a 2(2) full factorial design. Both variables showed statistically significant effects on k(L)a, and the highest values of this parameter in both media for simple fermentation (241 s(-1)) and extractive fermentation with ATPS (70.3 s(-1)) were observed at the highest levels of aeration (5 vvm) and agitation (1200 rpm). The k(L)a values were then used to establish mathematical correlations of this response as a function of the process variables. The exponents of the power number (N(3)D(2)) and superficial gas velocity (V(s)) determined in distilled water (alpha = 0.39 and beta = 0.47, respectively) were in reasonable agreement with the ones reported in the literature for several aqueous systems and close to those determined for a simple fermentation medium (alpha=0.38 and beta=0.41). On the other hand, as expected by the increased viscosity in the presence of polyethylene glycol, their values were remarkably higher in a typical medium for extractive fermentation (alpha=0.50 and beta=1.0). A reasonable agreement was found between the experimental data of k(L)a for the three selected systems and the values predicted by the theoretical models, under a wide range of operational conditions. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Protocol of orofacial myofunctional evaluation with scores

Objective: In the literature there is no validated instrument for the clinical evaluation of the orofacial myofunctional condition of children that will permit the examiner to express numerically his perception of the characteristics and behaviors observed. The proposal of this study is to describe a protocol for the evaluation of children aged 6-12 years in order to establish relations between the orofacial. myofunctional conditions and numerical scales. The protocol validity, reliability of the examiners and agreement between them was analyzed. Methods: Eighty children aged 6-12 years participated in the study. All were evaluated and 30 were selected at random for the analyses (age range: 72-149 months, mean = 103.3, S.D. = 23.57). Individuals with and without orofacial myofunctional. disorders were included. The examiners were two speech therapists property calibrated in orofacial myofunctional evaluation. Two protocols were constructed. One, based on traditional models, was called traditional orofacial. myofunctional. evaluation (TOME), and the other, with the addition of numerical scales, was called orofacial myofunctional. evaluation with scores (OMES). The clinical conditions included were: appearance, posture and mobility of lips, tongue, cheeks and jaws, respiration, mastication and deglutition. Statistical analysis was performed using the split-half reliability method. Means, standard deviations and the Spearman correlation coefficient were also calculated. Results: There was a statistically significant correlation between the evaluations of 30 children assessed with the TOME and OMES protocols (r = 0.85, p < 0.01). The reliability between protocols was 0.92. The test-retest reliability of the OMES instrument was 0.99 and the correlation was 0.98. Reliability between examiners 1 and 2 using the OMES protocol was 0.99, and the correlation was 0.98 (P < 0.01). Conclusion: The OMES protocot proved to be a valid and reliable instrument for orofacial myofunctional evaluation, permitting the grading of orofacial myofunctional conditions within the limits of the selected items. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of inbreeding depression in a Guzerat dairy herd: Effects of individual increase in inbreeding coefficients on production and reproduction

Influences of inbreeding on daily milk yield (DMY), age at first calving (AFC), and calving intervals (CI) were determined on a highly inbred zebu dairy subpopulation of the Guzerat breed. Variance components were estimated using animal models in single-trait analyses. Two approaches were employed to estimate inbreeding depression: using individual increase in inbreeding coefficients or using inbreeding coefficients as possible covariates included in the statistical models. The pedigree file included 9,915 animals, of which 9,055 were inbred, with an average inbreeding coefficient of 15.2%. The maximum inbreeding coefficient observed was 49.45%, and the average inbreeding for the females still in the herd during the analysis was 26.42%. Heritability estimates were 0.27 for DMY and 0.38 for AFC. The genetic variance ratio estimated with the random regression model for CI ranged around 0.10. Increased inbreeding caused poorer performance in DMY, AFC, and CI. However, some of the cows with the highest milk yield were among the highly inbred animals in this subpopulation. Individual increase in inbreeding used as a covariate in the statistical models accounted for inbreeding depression while avoiding overestimation that may result when fitting inbreeding coefficients.

Random primordial magnetic fields and the gas content of dark matter haloes

We recently predicted the existence of random primordial magnetic fields (RPMFs) in the form of randomly oriented cells with dipole-like structure with a cell size L(0) and an average magnetic field B(0). Here, we investigate models for primordial magnetic field with a similar web-like structure, and other geometries, differing perhaps in L(0) and B(0). The effect of RPMF on the formation of the first galaxies is investigated. The filtering mass, M(F), is the halo mass below which baryon accretion is severely depressed. We show that these RPMF could influence the formation of galaxies by altering the filtering mass and the baryon gas fraction of a halo, f(g). The effect is particularly strong in small galaxies. We find, for example, for a comoving B(0) = 0.1 mu G, and a reionization epoch that starts at z(s) = 11 and ends at z(e) = 8, for L(0) = 100 pc at z = 12, the f(g) becomes severely depressed for M < 10(7) M(circle dot), whereas for B(0) = 0 the f(g) becomes severely depressed only for much smaller masses, M < 10(5) M(circle dot). We suggest that the observation of M(F) and f(g) at high redshifts can give information on the intensity and structure of primordial magnetic fields.

Non-random reef use by fishes at two dominant zones in a tropical, algal-dominated coastal reef

Habitat use and the processes which determine fish distribution were evaluated at the reef flat and reef crest zones of a tropical, algal-dominated reef. Our comparisons indicated significant differences in the majority of the evaluated environmental characteristics between zones. Also, significant differences in the abundances of twelve, from thirteen analyzed species, were observed within and between-sites. According to null models, non-random patterns of species co-occurrences were significant, suggesting that fish guilds in both zones were non-randomly structured. Unexpectedly, structural complexity negatively affected overall species richness, but had a major positive influence on highly site-attached species such as a damselfish. Depth and substrate composition, particularly macroalgae cover, were positive determinants for the fish assemblage structure in the studied reef, prevailing over factors such as structural complexity and live coral cover. Our results are conflicting with other studies carried out in coral-dominated reefs of the Caribbean and Pacific, therefore supporting the idea that the factors which may potentially influence reef fish composition are highly site-dependent and variable.

The Prospective and Retrospective Memory Questionnaire: A population-based random sampling study

The Prospective and Retrospective Memory Questionnaire (PRMQ) has been shown to have acceptable reliability and factorial, predictive, and concurrent validity. However, the PRMQ has never been administered to a probability sample survey representative of all ages in adulthood, nor have previous studies controlled for factors that are known to influence metamemory, such as affective status. Here, the PRMQ was applied in a survey adopting a probabilistic three-stage cluster sample representative of the population of Sao Paulo, Brazil, according to gender, age (20-80 years), and economic status (n=1042). After excluding participants who had conditions that impair memory (depression, anxiety, used psychotropics, and/or had neurological/psychiatric disorders), in the remaining 664 individuals we (a) used confirmatory factor analyses to test competing models of the latent structure of the PRMQ, and (b) studied effects of gender, age, schooling, and economic status on prospective and retrospective memory complaints. The model with the best fit confirmed the same tripartite structure (general memory factor and two orthogonal prospective and retrospective memory factors) previously reported. Women complained more of general memory slips, especially those in the first 5 years after menopause, and there were more complaints of prospective than retrospective memory, except in participants with lower family income.

Predator-prey models: an application for the plankton dynamics of lake Geneva

In this paper we present a hierarchical Bayesian analysis for a predator-prey model applied to ecology considering the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. We consider the introduction of a random effect in the model and the presence of a covariate vector. An application to ecology is considered using a data set related to the plankton dynamics of lake Geneva for the year 1990. We also discuss some aspects of discrimination of the proposed models.

Robust linear mixed models with skew-normal independent distributions from a Bayesian perspective

Linear mixed models were developed to handle clustered data and have been a topic of increasing interest in statistics for the past 50 years. Generally. the normality (or symmetry) of the random effects is a common assumption in linear mixed models but it may, sometimes, be unrealistic, obscuring important features of among-subjects variation. In this article, we utilize skew-normal/independent distributions as a tool for robust modeling of linear mixed models under a Bayesian paradigm. The skew-normal/independent distributions is an attractive class of asymmetric heavy-tailed distributions that includes the skew-normal distribution, skew-t, skew-slash and the skew-contaminated normal distributions as special cases, providing an appealing robust alternative to the routine use of symmetric distributions in this type of models. The methods developed are illustrated using a real data set from Framingham cholesterol study. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence diagnostics in nonlinear mixed-effects elliptical models

In this work we propose and analyze nonlinear elliptical models for longitudinal data, which represent an alternative to gaussian models in the cases of heavy tails, for instance. The elliptical distributions may help to control the influence of the observations in the parameter estimates by naturally attributing different weights for each case. We consider random effects to introduce the within-group correlation and work with the marginal model without requiring numerical integration. An iterative algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters is presented, as well as diagnostic results based on residual distances and local influence [Cook, D., 1986. Assessment of local influence. journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series B 48 (2), 133-169; Cook D., 1987. Influence assessment. journal of Applied Statistics 14 (2),117-131; Escobar, L.A., Meeker, W.Q., 1992, Assessing influence in regression analysis with censored data, Biometrics 48, 507-528]. As numerical illustration, we apply the obtained results to a kinetics longitudinal data set presented in [Vonesh, E.F., Carter, R.L., 1992. Mixed-effects nonlinear regression for unbalanced repeated measures. Biometrics 48, 1-17], which was analyzed under the assumption of normality. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Power series generalized nonlinear models

We introduce in this paper a new class of discrete generalized nonlinear models to extend the binomial, Poisson and negative binomial models to cope with count data. This class of models includes some important models such as log-nonlinear models, logit, probit and negative binomial nonlinear models, generalized Poisson and generalized negative binomial regression models, among other models, which enables the fitting of a wide range of models to count data. We derive an iterative process for fitting these models by maximum likelihood and discuss inference on the parameters. The usefulness of the new class of models is illustrated with an application to a real data set. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Oriented Percolation in One-dimensional 1/vertical bar x-y vertical bar(2) Percolation Models

We consider independent edge percolation models on Z, with edge occupation probabilities. We prove that oriented percolation occurs when beta > 1 provided p is chosen sufficiently close to 1, answering a question posed in Newman and Schulman (Commun. Math. Phys. 104: 547, 1986). The proof is based on multi-scale analysis.

Extending the use of canonical and microcanonical Monte Carlo algorithms to spin models

We describe the canonical and microcanonical Monte Carlo algorithms for different systems that can be described by spin models. Sites of the lattice, chosen at random, interchange their spin values, provided they are different. The canonical ensemble is generated by performing exchanges according to the Metropolis prescription whereas in the microcanonical ensemble, exchanges are performed as long as the total energy remains constant. A systematic finite size analysis of intensive quantities and a comparison with results obtained from distinct ensembles are performed and the quality of results reveal that the present approach may be an useful tool for the study of phase transitions, specially first-order transitions. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.