Risk Estimates of Dengue in Travelers to Dengue Endemic Areas Using Mathematical Models

Dengue has emerged as a frequent problem in international travelers. The risk depends on destination, duration, and season of travel. However, data to quantify the true risk for travelers to acquire dengue are lacking. We used mathematical models to estimate the risk of nonimmune persons to acquire dengue when traveling to Singapore. From the force of infection, we calculated the risk of dengue dependent on duration of stay and season of arrival. Our data highlight that the risk for nonimmune travelers to acquire dengue in Singapore is substantial but varies greatly with seasons and epidemic cycles. For instance, for a traveler who stays in Singapore for 1 week during the high dengue season in 2005, the risk of acquiring dengue was 0.17%, but it was only 0.00423% during the low season in a nonepidemic year such as 2002. Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling will help the travel medicine provider give better evidence-based advice for travelers to dengue endemic countries.

Effects of detectability on estimates of geographic range size in bignonieae

Extinction risk has not been evaluated for 96% of all described plant species. Given that the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation proposes preliminary conservation assessments of all described plant species by 2010, herbarium specimens (i.e., primary occurrence data) are increasingly being used to infer threat components from estimates of geographic range size. Nevertheless, estimates of range size based on herbarium data may be inaccurate due to collection bias associated with interspecific variation in detectability. We used data on 377 species of Bignonieae to test the hypothesis that there is a positive relationship between detectability and estimates of geographic range size derived from herbarium specimens. This relationship is expected if the proportion of the true geographic range size of a species that is documented by herbarium specimens is given by the product of the true geographic range size and the detectability of the species, assuming no relationship between true geographic range size and detectability. We developed 4 measures of detectability that can be estimated from herbarium data and examined the relationship between detectability and 2 types of estimates of geographic range size: area of occupancy and extent of occurrence. Our results from regressing estimates of extent of occurrence and area of occupancy on detectability across genera provided no support for this hypothesis. The same was true for regressions of estimated extent of occurrence on detectability across species within genera. Nevertheless, regressions of estimated area of occupancy on detectability across species within genera provided partial support for our hypothesis. We considered 3 possible explanations for this mixed outcome: violation of the assumption of no relationship between true geographic range size and detectability; the relationships between estimated geographic range size and detectability may be an artifact of a negative relationship between estimated area of occupancy and the sampling variance of detectability; detectability may have had 2 opposite effects on estimated species range sizes: one determines the proportion of the true range of a species documented by herbarium specimens and the other determines the distribution of true range size for the species actually observed with herbarium data. Our findings should help improve understanding of the potential biases incurred with the use of herbarium data.

Permanence of stability for a class of system of differential equations with two delays

The paper studies a class of a system of linear retarded differential difference equations with several parameters. It presents some sufficient conditions under which no stability changes for an equilibrium point occurs. Application of these results is given. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal subdivision of land in agrarian reform projects: an analysis using genetic algorithms

J.A. Ferreira Neto, E.C. Santos Junior, U. Fra Paleo, D. Miranda Barros, and M.C.O. Moreira. 2011. Optimal subdivision of land in agrarian reform projects: an analysis using genetic algorithms. Cien. Inv. Agr. 38(2): 169-178. The objective of this manuscript is to develop a new procedure to achieve optimal land subdivision using genetic algorithms (GA). The genetic algorithm was tested in the rural settlement of Veredas, located in Minas Gerais, Brazil. This implementation was based on the land aptitude and its productivity index. The sequence of tests in the study was carried out in two areas with eight different agricultural aptitude classes, including one area of 391.88 ha subdivided into 12 lots and another of 404.1763 ha subdivided into 14 lots. The effectiveness of the method was measured using the shunting line standard value of a parceled area lot`s productivity index. To evaluate each parameter, a sequence of 15 calculations was performed to record the best individual fitness average (MMI) found for each parameter variation. The best parameter combination found in testing and used to generate the new parceling with the GA was the following: 320 as the generation number, a population of 40 individuals, 0.8 mutation tax, and a 0.3 renewal tax. The solution generated rather homogeneous lots in terms of productive capacity.

Efficacy of sweet solutions for analgesia in infants between 1 and 12 months of age: a systematic review

Objective To compare the efficacy of oral sweet solutions to water or no treatment in infants aged 1-12 months during immunisation. Methods Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were retrieved through internet searches or manual searches of reference lists. Search terms included newborn, infant, pain, sucrose and alternative names for sweet solutions. Summary estimates with 95% CIs were calculated and included relative risk (RR), risk difference (RD) and number needed to treat to benefit (NNTB) for dichotomous outcomes, and weighted mean differences (WMD) for continuous outcomes. Where pooling of results was not possible, a narrative summary of study results is presented. Results Of the 695 studies identified, 14 RCTs with 1674 injections met the inclusion criteria. Sucrose or glucose, compared to water or no treatment decreased crying during or following immunisation in 13 of the 14 studies. Infants receiving 30% glucose (three trials, 243 infants) had a decreased RR in crying incidence following immunisation (typical RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.93; RD -0.17, 95% CI -0.29 to -0.05; NNTB 6, 95% CI 3 to 20). With sucrose or glucose, there was a 10% WMD reduction in proportion of crying time (95% CI - 18 to - 2) and a 12 s reduction in crying duration (95% CI - 23 to -0.7 s). An optimal dose of sucrose or glucose could not be ascertained due to the varied volumes and concentrations used. Conclusion Infants aged 1-12 months administered sucrose or glucose before immunisation had moderately reduced incidence and duration of crying. Healthcare professionals should consider using sucrose or glucose before and during immunisation.

AVERAGE CONTINUOUS CONTROL OF PIECEWISE DETERMINISTIC MARKOV PROCESSES

This paper deals with the long run average continuous control problem of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) taking values in a general Borel space and with compact action space depending on the state variable. The control variable acts on the jump rate and transition measure of the PDMP, and the running and boundary costs are assumed to be positive but not necessarily bounded. Our first main result is to obtain an optimality equation for the long run average cost in terms of a discrete-time optimality equation related to the embedded Markov chain given by the postjump location of the PDMP. Our second main result guarantees the existence of a feedback measurable selector for the discrete-time optimality equation by establishing a connection between this equation and an integro-differential equation. Our final main result is to obtain some sufficient conditions for the existence of a solution for a discrete-time optimality inequality and an ordinary optimal feedback control for the long run average cost using the so-called vanishing discount approach. Two examples are presented illustrating the possible applications of the results developed in the paper.

Cross-national epidemiology of DSM-IV major depressive episode

Background: Major depression is one of the leading causes of disability worldwide, yet epidemiologic data are not available for many countries, particularly low- to middle-income countries. In this paper, we present data on the prevalence, impairment and demographic correlates of depression from 18 high and low-to middle-income countries in the World Mental Health Survey Initiative. Methods: Major depressive episodes (MDE) as defined by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DMS-IV) were evaluated in face-to-face interviews using the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Data from 18 countries were analyzed in this report (n = 89,037). All countries surveyed representative, population-based samples of adults. Results: The average lifetime and 12-month prevalence estimates of DSM-IV MDE were 14.6% and 5.5% in the ten high-income and 11.1% and 5.9% in the eight low- to middle-income countries. The average age of onset ascertained retrospectively was 25.7 in the high-income and 24.0 in low- to middle-income countries. Functional impairment was associated with recency of MDE. The female: male ratio was about 2: 1. In high-income countries, younger age was associated with higher 12-month prevalence; by contrast, in several low-to middle-income countries, older age was associated with greater likelihood of MDE. The strongest demographic correlate in high-income countries was being separated from a partner, and in low- to middle-income countries, was being divorced or widowed. Conclusions: MDE is a significant public-health concern across all regions of the world and is strongly linked to social conditions. Future research is needed to investigate the combination of demographic risk factors that are most strongly associated with MDE in the specific countries included in the WMH.

Impact of Manaus City on the Amazon Green Ocean atmosphere: ozone production, precursor sensitivity and aerosol load

As a contribution to the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia - Cooperative LBA Airborne Regional Experiment (LBA-CLAIRE-2001) field campaign in the heart of the Amazon Basin, we analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamics of the urban plume of Manaus City during the wet-to-dry season transition period in July 2001. During the flights, we performed vertical stacks of crosswind transects in the urban outflow downwind of Manaus City, measuring a comprehensive set of trace constituents including O(3), NO, NO(2), CO, VOC, CO(2), and H(2)O. Aerosol loads were characterized by concentrations of total aerosol number (CN) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and by light scattering properties. Measurements over pristine rainforest areas during the campaign showed low levels of pollution from biomass burning or industrial emissions, representative of wet season background conditions. The urban plume of Manaus City was found to be joined by plumes from power plants south of the city, all showing evidence of very strong photochemical ozone formation. One episode is discussed in detail, where a threefold increase in ozone mixing ratios within the atmospheric boundary layer occurred within a 100 km travel distance downwind of Manaus. Observation-based estimates of the ozone production rates in the plume reached 15 ppb h(-1). Within the plume core, aerosol concentrations were strongly enhanced, with Delta CN/Delta CO ratios about one order of magnitude higher than observed in Amazon biomass burning plumes. Delta CN/Delta CO ratios tended to decrease with increasing transport time, indicative of a significant reduction in particle number by coagulation, and without substantial new particle nucleation occurring within the time/space observed. While in the background atmosphere a large fraction of the total particle number served as CCN (about 60-80% at 0.6% supersaturation), the CCN/CN ratios within the plume indicated that only a small fraction (16 +/- 12 %) of the plume particles were CCN. The fresh plume aerosols showed relatively weak light scattering efficiency. The CO-normalized CCN concentrations and light scattering coefficients increased with plume age in most cases, suggesting particle growth by condensation of soluble organic or inorganic species. We used a Single Column Chemistry and Transport Model (SCM) to infer the urban pollution emission fluxes of Manaus City, implying observed mixing ratios of CO, NO(x) and VOC. The model can reproduce the temporal/spatial distribution of ozone enhancements in the Manaus plume, both with and without accounting for the distinct (high NO(x)) contribution by the power plants; this way examining the sensitivity of ozone production to changes in the emission rates of NO(x). The VOC reactivity in the Manaus region was dominated by a high burden of biogenic isoprene from the background rainforest atmosphere, and therefore NO(x) control is assumed to be the most effective ozone abatement strategy. Both observations and models show that the agglomeration of NO(x) emission sources, like power plants, in a well-arranged area can decrease the ozone production efficiency in the near field of the urban populated cores. But on the other hand remote areas downwind of the city then bear the brunt, being exposed to increased ozone production and N-deposition. The simulated maximum stomatal ozone uptake fluxes were 4 nmol m(-2) s(-1) close to Manaus, and decreased only to about 2 nmol m(-2) s(-1) within a travel distance >1500 km downwind from Manaus, clearly exceeding the critical threshold level for broadleaf trees. Likewise, the simulated N deposition close to Manaus was similar to 70 kg N ha(-1) a(-1) decreasing only to about 30 kg N ha(-1) a(-1) after three days of simulation.

Tidal-amplitude rhythms of larval release: variable departure from presumed optimal timing among populations of the mottled shore crab

It is widely assumed that optimal timing of larval release is of major importance to offspring survival, but the extent to which environmental factors entrain synchronous reproductive rhythms in natural populations is not well known. We sampled the broods of ovigerous females of the common shore crab Pachygrapsus transversus at both sheltered and exposed rocky shores interspersed along a so-km coastline, during four different periods, to better assess inter-population differences of larval release timing and to test for the effect of wave action. Shore-specific patterns were consistent through time. Maximum release fell within 1 day around syzygies on all shores, which matched dates of maximum tidal amplitude. Within this very narrow range, populations at exposed shores anticipated hatching compared to those at sheltered areas, possibly due to mechanical stimulation by wave action. Average departures from syzygial release ranged consistently among shores from 2.4 to 3.3 days, but in this case we found no evidence for the effect of wave exposure. Therefore, processes varying at the scale of a few kilometres affect the precision of semilunar timing and may produce differences in the survival of recently hatched larvae. Understanding the underlying mechanisms causing departures from presumed optimal release timing is thus important for a more comprehensive evaluation of reproductive success of invertebrate populations.

Biomass burning in Brazil`s Amazonian ""arc of deforestation"": Burning efficiency and charcoal formation in a fire after mechanized clearing at Feliz Natal, Mato Grosso

Estimates of greenhouse-gas emissions from deforestation are highly uncertain because of high variability in key parameters and because of the limited number of studies providing field measurements of these parameters. One such parameter is burning efficiency, which determines how much of the original forest`s aboveground carbon stock will be released in the burn, as well as how much will later be released by decay and how much will remain as charcoal. In this paper we examined the fate of biomass from a semideciduous tropical forest in the ""arc of deforestation,"" where clearing activity is concentrated along the southern edge of the Amazon forest. We estimated carbon content, charcoal formation and burning efficiency by direct measurements (cutting and weighing) and by line-intersect sampling (LIS) done along the axis of each plot before and after burning of felled vegetation. The total aboveground dry biomass found here (219.3 Mg ha(-1)) is lower than the values found in studies that have been done in other parts of the Amazon region. Values for burning efficiency (65%) and charcoal formation (6.0%, or 5.98 Mg C ha(-1)) were much higher than those found in past studies in tropical areas. The percentage of trunk biomass lost in burning (49%) was substantially higher than has been found in previous studies. This difference may be explained by the concentration of more stems in the smaller diameter classes and the low humidity of the fuel (the dry season was unusually long in 2007, the year of the burn). This study provides the first measurements of forest burning parameters for a group of forest types that is now undergoing rapid deforestation. The burning parameters estimated here indicate substantially higher burning efficiency than has been found in other Amazonian forest types. Quantification of burning efficiency is critical to estimates of trace-gas emissions from deforestation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SYNCHRONIZATION OF A CLASS OF SECOND-ORDER NONLINEAR SYSTEMS

The asymptotic behavior of a class of coupled second-order nonlinear dynamical systems is studied in this paper. Using very mild assumptions on the vector-field, conditions on the coupling parameters that guarantee synchronization are provided. The proposed result does not require solutions to be ultimately bounded in order to prove synchronization, therefore it can be used to study coupled systems that do not globally synchronize, including synchronization of unbounded solutions. In this case, estimates of the synchronization region are obtained. Synchronization of two-coupled nonlinear pendulums and two-coupled Duffing systems are studied to illustrate the application of the proposed theory.

Recursive linear estimation for general discrete-time descriptor systems

This paper considers the optimal linear estimates recursion problem for discrete-time linear systems in its more general formulation. The system is allowed to be in descriptor form, rectangular, time-variant, and with the dynamical and measurement noises correlated. We propose a new expression for the filter recursive equations which presents an interesting simple and symmetric structure. Convergence of the associated Riccati recursion and stability properties of the steady-state filter are provided. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Avoiding Divergence in the Shalvi-Weinstein Algorithm

The most popular algorithms for blind equalization are the constant-modulus algorithm (CMA) and the Shalvi-Weinstein algorithm (SWA). It is well-known that SWA presents a higher convergence rate than CMA. at the expense of higher computational complexity. If the forgetting factor is not sufficiently close to one, if the initialization is distant from the optimal solution, or if the signal-to-noise ratio is low, SWA can converge to undesirable local minima or even diverge. In this paper, we show that divergence can be caused by an inconsistency in the nonlinear estimate of the transmitted signal. or (when the algorithm is implemented in finite precision) by the loss of positiveness of the estimate of the autocorrelation matrix, or by a combination of both. In order to avoid the first cause of divergence, we propose a dual-mode SWA. In the first mode of operation. the new algorithm works as SWA; in the second mode, it rejects inconsistent estimates of the transmitted signal. Assuming the persistence of excitation condition, we present a deterministic stability analysis of the new algorithm. To avoid the second cause of divergence, we propose a dual-mode lattice SWA, which is stable even in finite-precision arithmetic, and has a computational complexity that increases linearly with the number of adjustable equalizer coefficients. The good performance of the proposed algorithms is confirmed through numerical simulations.

Short communication: An evaluation of the effectiveness of Lactobacillus buchneri 40788 to alter fermentation and improve the aerobic stability of corn silage in farm silos

The objective of this study was to determine if the effects of inoculation with Lactobacillus buchneri 40788 were detectable when applied to whole-plant corn stored in farm silos. Corn silage was randomly sampled from farms in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania, and was untreated (n = 15) or treated with an inoculant (n = 16) containing L. buchneri 40788 alone or this organism combined with Pediococcus pentosaceus during May and June 2007. Corn silage that was removed from the silo face during the morning feeding was sampled, vacuum-packed, and heat sealed in polyethylene bags and shipped immediately to the University of Delaware for analyses. Silage samples were analyzed for dry matter (DM), nutrient composition, fermentation end-products, aerobic stability, and microbial populations. The population of L. buchneri in silages was determined using a real-time quantitative PCR method. Aerobic stability was measured as the time after exposure to air that it took for a 2 degrees C increase above an ambient temperature. The DM and concentrations of lactic and acetic acids were 35.6 and 34.5, 4.17 and 4.85, and 2.24 and 2.41%, respectively, for untreated and inoculated silages and were not different between treatments. The concentration of 1,2-propanediol was greater in inoculated silages (1.26 vs. 0.29%). Numbers of lactic acid bacteria determined on selective agar were not different between treatments. However, the numbers of L. buchneri based on measurements using real-time quantitative PCR analysis were greater and averaged 6.46 log cfu-equivalents/g compared with 4.89 log cfu-equivalent for inoculated silages. There were fewer yeasts and aerobic stability was greater in inoculated silages (4.75 log cfu/g and 74 h of stability) than in untreated silages (5.55 log cfu/g and 46 h of stability). This study supports the effectiveness of L. buchneri 40788 on dairy farms.

Characterization and stability study of a water-in-oil microemulsion incorporating quercetin

Background: The effectiveness of a water/oil (w/o) microemulsion containing quercetin against ultraviolet B radiation (UVB) induced damage was recently demonstrated by our group. However, during the development of new pharmaceutical products, the evaluation of percutaneous absorption and in vivo effectiveness should be accompanied by evaluation of stability parameters as an integral part of the process. Objective: The aim was to investigate the stability of the final microemulsion formulation considering the temperature ranges of storage and application. Methods: The physical, chemical, and functional stability of this formulation under different conditions of storage during 12 months and the photostability of quercetin incorporated into this system over UVB exposure for 7 days were evaluated. Results: Although the results indicated a notable physical stability of the w/o microemulsions during the experimental period under all employed conditions, in both, the chemical and functional studies, a significant loss of quercetin content and antioxidant activity was found after 6 months of storage at 30 degrees C/70% relative humidity and after 2 months at 40 degrees C/70% relative humidity. The photostability study results demonstrated that the incorporation of quercetin into the w/o microemulsion maintained the previously demonstrated photostability of this flavonoid under forced exposure to UVB irradiation. Conclusion: Thus, this work demonstrates that special storage conditions (at 4 +/- 2 degrees C) are necessary to maintain the functionality of the w/o microemulsion containing quercetin and mainly emphasizes the importance of studying physical, chemical, and functional parameters at the same time during stability evaluation of active principles.