The influence of ARIMA-GARCH parameters in feed forward neural networks prediction

The objective of this article is to find out the influence of the parameters of the ARIMA-GARCH models in the prediction of artificial neural networks (ANN) of the feed forward type, trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, through Monte Carlo simulations. The paper presents a study of the relationship between ANN performance and ARIMA-GARCH model parameters, i.e. the fact that depending on the stationarity and other parameters of the time series, the ANN structure should be selected differently. Neural networks have been widely used to predict time series and their capacity for dealing with non-linearities is a normally outstanding advantage. However, the values of the parameters of the models of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity have an influence on ANN prediction performance. The combination of the values of the GARCH parameters with the ARIMA autoregressive terms also implies in ANN performance variation. Combining the parameters of the ARIMA-GARCH models and changing the ANN`s topologies, we used the Theil inequality coefficient to measure the prediction of the feed forward ANN.

The Aedes aegypti larval transcriptome: a comparative perspective with emphasis on trypsins and the domain structure of peritrophins

The genome sequence of Aedes aegypti was recently reported. A significant amount of Expressed Sequence Tags (ESTs) were sequenced to aid in the gene prediction process. In the present work we describe an integrated analysis of the genomic and EST data, focusing on genes with preferential expression in larvae (LG), adults (AG) and in both stages (SG). A total of 913 genes (5.4% of the transcript complement) are LG, including ion transporters and cuticle proteins that are important for ion homeostasis and defense. From a starting set of 245 genes encoding the trypsin domain, we identified 66 putative LG, AG, and SG trypsins by manual curation. Phylogenetic analyses showed that AG trypsins are divergent from their larval counterparts (LG), grouping with blood-induced trypsins from Anopheles gambiae and Simulium vittatum. These results support the hypothesis that blood-feeding arose only once, in the ancestral Culicomorpha. Peritrophins are proteins that interlock chitin fibrils to form the peritrophic membrane (PM) that compartmentalizes the food in the midgut. These proteins are recognized by having chitin-binding domains with 6 conserved Cys and may also present mucin-like domains (regions expected to be highly O-glycosylated). PM may be formed by a ring of cells (type 2, seen in Ae. aegypti larvae and Drosophila melanogaster) or by most midgut cells (type 1, found in Ae. aegypti adult and Tribolium castaneum). LG and D. melanogaster peritrophins have more complex domain structures than AG and T. castaneum peritrophins. Furthermore, mucin-like domains of peritrophins from T. castaneum (feeding on rough food) are lengthier than those of adult Ae. aegypti (blood-feeding). This suggests, for the first time, that type 1 and type 2 PM may have variable molecular architectures determined by different peritrophins and/or ancillary proteins, which may be partly modulated by diet.

Improved Prediction of Hydrocarbon Flash Points from Boiling Point Data

Flash points (T(FP)) of hydrocarbons are calculated from their flash point numbers, N(FP), with the relationship T(FP) (K) = 23.369N(FP)(2/3) + 20.010N(FP)(1/3) + 31.901 In turn, the N(FP) values can be predicted from experimental boiling point numbers (Y(BP)) and molecular structure with the equation N(FP) = 0.987 Y(BP) + 0.176D + 0.687T + 0.712B - 0.176 where D is the number of olefinic double bonds in the structure, T is the number of triple bonds, and B is the number of aromatic rings. For a data set consisting of 300 diverse hydrocarbons, the average absolute deviation between the literature and predicted flash points was 2.9 K.

Computer-aided Structure Elucidation of Neolignans

This paper describes a new module of the expert system SISTEMAT used for the prediction of the skeletons of neolignans by (13)C NMR, (1)H NMR and botanical data obtained from the literature. SISTEMAT is composed of MACRONO, SISCONST, C13MACH, H1MACH and SISOCBOT programs, each analyzing data of the neolignan in question to predict the carbon skeleton of the compound. From these results, the global probability is computed and the most probable skeleton predicted. SISTEMAT predicted the skeletons of 75% of the 20 neolignans tested, in a rapid and simple procedure demonstrating its advantage for the structural elucidation of new compounds.

New Improvements in Automatic Structure Elucidation Using the LSD (Logic for Structure Determination) and the SISTEMAT Expert Systems

This article describes the integration of the LSD (Logic for Structure Determination) and SISTEMAT expert systems that were both designed for the computer-assisted structure elucidation of small organic molecules. A first step has been achieved towards the linking of the SISTEMAT database with the LSD structure generator. The skeletal descriptions found by the SISTEMAT programs are now easily transferred to LSD as substructural constraints. Examples of the synergy between these expert systems are given for recently reported natural products.

Evaluation of the dental structure loss produced during maintenance and replacement of occlusal amalgam restorations

The aim of this in vitro study was to evaluate four different approaches to the decision of changing or not defective amalgam restorations in first primary molar teeth concerning the loss of dental structure. Ditched amalgam restorations (n = 11) were submitted to four different treatments, as follows: Control group - polishing and finishing of the restorations were carried out; Amalgam group - the ditched amalgam restorations were replaced by new amalgam restorations; Composite resin group - the initial amalgam restorations were replaced by composite resin restorations; Flowable resin group - the ditching around the amalgam restorations was filled with flowable resin. Images of the sectioned teeth were made and the area of the cavities before and after the procedures was determined by image analysis software to assess structural loss. The data were submitted to ANOVA complemented by the Student Newman Keuls test (p < 0.05). The cavities in all the groups presented significantly greater areas after the procedures. However, the amalgam group showed more substantial dental loss. The other three groups presented no statistically significant difference in dental structure loss after the re-treatments. Thus, replacing ditched amalgam restorations by other similar restorations resulted in a significant dental structure loss while maintaining them or replacing them by resin restorations did not result in significant loss.

Análise morfológica e fisiológica dos fígados e rins de ratas prenhes e seus fetos tratados pela associação zidovudina, lamivudina e ritonavir durante toda a prenhez

OBJETIVO: avaliar os efeitos da administração da associação zidovudina-lamivudina-ritonavir nos fígados e rins de ratas prenhes e seus conceptos do ponto de vista morfológico e fisiológico. MÉTODOS: 40 ratas albinas prenhes foram aleatoriamente divididas em 4 grupos: 1 controle (Ctrl: controle de veículo) e 3 experimentais (Exp1x, Exp3x e Exp9x). Estes últimos foram tratados por solução oral de zidovudina/lamivudina/ritonavir (Exp1x: 10/5/20 mg/kg; Exp3x: 30/15/60 mg/kg; Exp9x: 90/45/180 mg/kg). As drogas e o veículo foram administrados por gavagem, desde o 1º até o 20º dia de prenhez. No último dia do experimento, todos os animais foram anestesiados e sangue foi retirado da cavidade cardíaca para avaliação sérica das enzimas aspartato aminotransferase (AST) e alanina aminotransferase (ALT), por método calorimétrico, bem como da ureia, determinada por método cinético-enzimático, e creatinina, por método cinético-colorimétrico. Em seguida, fragmentos dos fígados e rins maternos e fetais foram coletados, fixados em formol a 10% e processados segundo os métodos histológicos para inclusão em parafina. Cortes com 5 µm de espessura foram corados pela hematoxilina-eosina (HE) e analisados por microscopia de luz. Na leitura das lâminas, considerou-se o padrão de normalidade para fígado e rins, tais como: hepatócitos, espaço porta íntegros e veias hepáticas bem definidas. Nos rins, a presença de corpúsculos renais, túbulos contorcidos e alças de Henle típicos. Nos fígados fetais considerou-se, ainda, a morfologia das células da linhagem eritrocitária nas diferentes fases do desenvolvimento, bem como os megacariócitos. Quando houve alteração da coloração padrão estabelecida para as estruturas hepáticas e renais, alteração na morfologia de núcleos, rompimento de limites de alguma organela citoplasmática, presença de congestão vascular, tudo isso foi entendido como provavelmente provocado pelas drogas em sua(s) dose(s) de aplicação. A avaliação estatística foi realizada por análise de variância (ANOVA), completada pelo teste de Tukey-Kramer (p<0,05). RESULTADOS: os fígados maternos dos grupos Ctrl, Exp1x e Exp3x mostraram hepatócitos típicos, espaço porta íntegros e veias hepáticas com aspecto normal. No fígado materno do grupo Exp9x, foram encontrados hepatócitos com sinais de atrofia e apoptose (eosinofilia citoplasmática e núcleos picnóticos). Além disso, identificou-se vasodilatação dos capilares sinusoides (congestão). Os rins maternos dos grupos Ctrl e Exp1x apresentaram-se normais, com corpúsculos renais, túbulos contorcidos e alças de Henle típicos. Já nos grupos Exp3x e Exp9x, foram encontrados congestão vascular, glomérulos pequenos ricos em células contendo núcleos hipercromáticos, sendo mais intensos no Exp9x. Com relação aos fígados e rins fetais, não foram observadas alterações morfológicas ou fisiológicas nos grupos estudados. Encontrou-se aumento significante nos níveis da AST (305,70±55,80; p<0,05) e da creatinina (0,50±0,09; p<0,05) no grupo Exp9x. CONCLUSÕES: nossos resultados evidenciam que a administração da associação zidovudina/lamivudina/ritonavir a ratas prenhes em altas doses causa alterações morfológicas e funcionais nos fígados e rins maternos. Não houve alterações nem morfológicas nem fisiológicas nos fígados e rins fetais.

Synthesis, screening for antiacetylcholinesterase activity and binding mode prediction of a new series of [3-(disubstituted-phosphate)-4,4,4-trifluoro-butyl]-carbamic acid ethyl esters

A series of nine new [3-(disubstituted-phosphate)-4,4,4-trifluoro-butyl]-carbamic acid ethyl esters (phosphate-carbamate compounds) was obtained through the reaction of (4,4,4-trifluoro-3-hydroxybut-1-yl)-carbamic acid ethyl esters with phosphorus oxychloride followed by the addition of alcohols. The products were characterized by ¹H, 13C, 31P, and 19F NMR spectroscopy, GC-MS, and elemental analysis. All the synthesized compounds were screened for acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibitory activity using the Ellman method. All compounds containing phosphate and carbamate pharmacophores in their structures showed enzyme inhibition, being the compound bearing the diethoxy phosphate group (2b) the most active compound. Molecular modeling studies were performed to investigate the detailed interactions between AChE active site and small-molecule inhibitor candidates, providing valuable structural insights into AChE inhibition.

Keratoconus prediction using a finite element model of the cornea with local biomechanical properties

PURPOSE: The ability to predict and understand which biomechanical properties of the cornea are responsible for the stability or progression of keratoconus may be an important clinical and surgical tool for the eye-care professional. We have developed a finite element model of the cornea, that tries to predicts keratoconus-like behavior and its evolution based on material properties of the corneal tissue. METHODS: Corneal material properties were modeled using bibliographic data and corneal topography was based on literature values from a schematic eye model. Commercial software was used to simulate mechanical and surface properties when the cornea was subject to different local parameters, such as elasticity. RESULTS: The simulation has shown that, depending on the corneal initial surface shape, changes in local material properties and also different intraocular pressures values induce a localized protuberance and increase in curvature when compared to the remaining portion of the cornea. CONCLUSIONS: This technique provides a quantitative and accurate approach to the problem of understanding the biomechanical nature of keratoconus. The implemented model has shown that changes in local material properties of the cornea and intraocular pressure are intrinsically related to keratoconus pathology and its shape/curvature.

Benthic macrofauna structure in the northeast area of Todos os Santos Bay, Bahia State, Brazil: patterns of spatial and seasonal distribution

Structure of intertidal and subtidal benthic macrofauna in the northeastern region of Todos os Santos Bay (TSB), northeast Brazil, was investigated during a period of two years. Relationships with environmental parameters were studied through uni-and multivariate statistical analyses, and the main distributional patterns shown to be especially related to sediment type and content of organic fractions (Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus), on both temporal and spatial scales. Polychaete annelids accounted for more than 70% of the total fauna and showed low densities, species richness and diversity, except for the area situated on the reef banks. These banks constitute a peculiar environment in relation to the rest of the region by having coarse sediments poor in organic matter and rich in biodetritic carbonates besides an abundant and diverse fauna. The intertidal region and the shallower area nearer to the oil refinery RLAM, with sediments composed mainly of fine sand, seem to constitute an unstable system with few highly dominant species, such as Armandia polyophthalma and Laeonereis acuta. In the other regions of TSB, where muddy bottoms predominated, densities and diversity were low, especially in the stations near the refinery. Here the lowest values of the biological indicators occurred together with the highest organic compound content. In addition, the nearest sites (stations 4 and 7) were sometimes azoic. The adjacent Caboto, considered as a control area at first, presented low density but intermediate values of species diversity, which indicates a less disturbed environment in relation to the pelitic infralittoral in front of the refinery. The results of the ordination analyses evidenced five homogeneous groups of stations (intertidal; reef banks; pelitic infralittoral; mixed sediments; Caboto) with different specific patterns, a fact which seems to be mainly related to granulometry and chemical sediment characteristics.

Population structure of the lancelet Branchiostoma caribaeum (Cephalochordata: Branchiostomidae) in the Baía de Guanabara, Rio de Janeiro, southeastern Brazil

Population structure of the lancelet Branchiostoma caribaeum Sandevall, 1853 was studied in four surveys, corresponding to austral seasons, in a tropical bay, southeast of Brazil. Abundance was higher in the spring and was positively correlated to coarse sediments, limiting its occurrence to some sectors of the sampling area. Body length and biomass differed seasonally but not between sexes. Sexually mature individuals occurred in all seasons, suggesting continuous breeding that is typical of tropical species. Variation in the frequency of small specimens indicates temporal differences in the intensity of breeding. The body length of recruits differed from other population of lancelets and the small length which B. caribaeum attained sexual maturity in Guanabara Bay may be related to local environmental stress or the great availability of food.

The Staircase Structure of the Southern Brazilian Continental Shelf

We show some evidences that the Southeastern Brazilian Continental Shelf (SBCS) has a devil's staircase structure, with a sequence of scarps and terraces with widths that obey fractal formation rules. Since the formation of these features is linked with the sea-level variations, we say that the sea level changes in an organized pulsating way. Although the proposed approach was applied in a particular region of the Earth, it is suitable to be applied in an integrated way to other shelves around the world, since the analyses favor the revelation of the global sea-level variations. Copyright (C) 2009 M. S. Baptista and L. A. Conti.

Prediction of good glass formers in the Al-Ni-La and Al-Ni-Gd systems using topological instability and electronegativity

A new criterion has been recently proposed combining the topological instability (lambda criterion) and the average electronegativity difference (Delta e) among the elements of an alloy to predict and select new glass-forming compositions. In the present work, this criterion (lambda.Delta e) is applied to the Al-Ni-La and Al-Ni-Gd ternary systems and its predictability is validated using literature data for both systems and additionally, using own experimental data for the Al-La-Ni system. The compositions with a high lambda.Delta e value found in each ternary system exhibit a very good correlation with the glass-forming ability of different alloys as indicated by their supercooled liquid regions (Delta T(x)) and their critical casting thicknesses. In the case of the Al-La-Ni system, the alloy with the largest lambda.Delta e value, La(56)Al(26.5)Ni(17.5), exhibits the highest glass-forming ability verified for this system. Therefore, the combined lambda.Delta e criterion is a simple and efficient tool to select new glass-forming compositions in Al-Ni-RE systems. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3563099]

Design and characterization of bridged loop-gap resonators for use in electron paramagnetic resonance measurements

This paper revisits the design of L and S band bridged loop-gap resonators (BLGRs) for electron paramagnetic resonance applications. A novel configuration is described and extensively characterized for resonance frequency and quality factor as a function of the geometrical parameters of the device. The obtained experimental results indicate higher values of the quality factor (Q) than previously reported in the literature, and the experimental analysis data should provide useful guidelines for BLGR design.

System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.