System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

1-[(Z)-1-Bromo-2-(butyldichloro-lambda(4)tellanyl)ethenyl]cyclohex-1-ene

The Te(IV) atom in the title compound, [Te(C(4)H(9))(C(8)H(10)Br)Cl(2)] or C(12)H(19)BrCl(2)Te, is in a distorted psi-trigonal-bipyramidal geometry, with the lone pair of electrons projected to occupy a position in the equatorial plane, and with the Cl atoms being mutually trans [172.48 (4)degrees]. Close intramolecular [Te center dot center dot center dot Br = 3.3444 (18) angstrom] and intermolecular [Te center dot center dot center dot Cl = 3.675 (3) angstrom] interactions are observed. The latter lead to centrosymmetric dimers which assemble into layers in the bc plane. The primary connections between layers are of the type C-H center dot center dot center dot Cl.

Potassium trifluoro[(Z)-3-(oxan-2-yloxy)prop-1-en-1-yl]borate monohydrate

The title compound, K(+)center dot C(8)H(13)BF(3)O(2)(-)center dot H(2)O, which was obtained from the reaction of a modified form of Z-vinylic telluride via a transmetalation reaction with n-BuLi, crystallizes as K(+) and C(8)H(13)BF(3)O(2)-ions along with a water molecule. The K(+) cation is surrounded by four anions, making close contacts with six F atoms at 2.659 (3)-2.906 (3) angstrom and with two O atoms at 2.806 (3) and 2.921 (3) angstrom in a distorted bicapped trigonal-prismatic geometry.

Phylogenetic relationships within the speciose family Characidae (Teleostei: Ostariophysi: Characiformes) based on multilocus analysis and extensive ingroup sampling

Background: With nearly 1,100 species, the fish family Characidae represents more than half of the species of Characiformes, and is a key component of Neotropical freshwater ecosystems. The composition, phylogeny, and classification of Characidae is currently uncertain, despite significant efforts based on analysis of morphological and molecular data. No consensus about the monophyly of this group or its position within the order Characiformes has been reached, challenged by the fact that many key studies to date have non-overlapping taxonomic representation and focus only on subsets of this diversity. Results: In the present study we propose a new definition of the family Characidae and a hypothesis of relationships for the Characiformes based on phylogenetic analysis of DNA sequences of two mitochondrial and three nuclear genes (4,680 base pairs). The sequences were obtained from 211 samples representing 166 genera distributed among all 18 recognized families in the order Characiformes, all 14 recognized subfamilies in the Characidae, plus 56 of the genera so far considered incertae sedis in the Characidae. The phylogeny obtained is robust, with most lineages significantly supported by posterior probabilities in Bayesian analysis, and high bootstrap values from maximum likelihood and parsimony analyses. Conclusion: A monophyletic assemblage strongly supported in all our phylogenetic analysis is herein defined as the Characidae and includes the characiform species lacking a supraorbital bone and with a derived position of the emergence of the hyoid artery from the anterior ceratohyal. To recognize this and several other monophyletic groups within characiforms we propose changes in the limits of several families to facilitate future studies in the Characiformes and particularly the Characidae. This work presents a new phylogenetic framework for a speciose and morphologically diverse group of freshwater fishes of significant ecological and evolutionary importance across the Neotropics and portions of Africa.

Time Changes with the Embodiment of Another's Body Posture

The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the perception of presentation durations of pictures of different body postures was distorted as function of the embodied movement that originally produced these postures. Participants were presented with two pictures, one with a low-arousal body posture judged to require no movement and the other with a high-arousal body posture judged to require considerable movement. In a temporal bisection task with two ranges of standard durations (0.4/1.6 s and 2/8 s), the participants had to judge whether the presentation duration of each of the pictures was more similar to the short or to the long standard duration. The results showed that the duration was judged longer for the posture requiring more movement than for the posture requiring less movement. However the magnitude of this overestimation was relatively greater for the range of short durations than for that of longer durations. Further analyses suggest that this lengthening effect was mediated by an arousal effect of limited duration on the speed of the internal clock system.

Influence of memory in deterministic walks in random media: Analytical calculation within a mean-field approximation

Consider a random medium consisting of N points randomly distributed so that there is no correlation among the distances separating them. This is the random link model, which is the high dimensionality limit (mean-field approximation) for the Euclidean random point structure. In the random link model, at discrete time steps, a walker moves to the nearest point, which has not been visited in the last mu steps (memory), producing a deterministic partially self-avoiding walk (the tourist walk). We have analytically obtained the distribution of the number n of points explored by the walker with memory mu=2, as well as the transient and period joint distribution. This result enables us to explain the abrupt change in the exploratory behavior between the cases mu=1 (memoryless walker, driven by extreme value statistics) and mu=2 (walker with memory, driven by combinatorial statistics). In the mu=1 case, the mean newly visited points in the thermodynamic limit (N >> 1) is just < n >=e=2.72... while in the mu=2 case, the mean number < n > of visited points grows proportionally to N(1/2). Also, this result allows us to establish an equivalence between the random link model with mu=2 and random map (uncorrelated back and forth distances) with mu=0 and the abrupt change between the probabilities for null transient time and subsequent ones.

ProbFAST: Probabilistic Functional Analysis System Tool

Background: The post-genomic era has brought new challenges regarding the understanding of the organization and function of the human genome. Many of these challenges are centered on the meaning of differential gene regulation under distinct biological conditions and can be performed by analyzing the Multiple Differential Expression (MDE) of genes associated with normal and abnormal biological processes. Currently MDE analyses are limited to usual methods of differential expression initially designed for paired analysis. Results: We proposed a web platform named ProbFAST for MDE analysis which uses Bayesian inference to identify key genes that are intuitively prioritized by means of probabilities. A simulated study revealed that our method gives a better performance when compared to other approaches and when applied to public expression data, we demonstrated its flexibility to obtain relevant genes biologically associated with normal and abnormal biological processes. Conclusions: ProbFAST is a free accessible web-based application that enables MDE analysis on a global scale. It offers an efficient methodological approach for MDE analysis of a set of genes that are turned on and off related to functional information during the evolution of a tumor or tissue differentiation. ProbFAST server can be accessed at http://gdm.fmrp.usp.br/probfast.

Work disability remains a major problem in rheumatoid arthritis in the 2000s: data from 32 countries in the QUEST-RA Study

Introduction: Work disability is a major consequence of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), associated not only with traditional disease activity variables, but also more significantly with demographic, functional, occupational, and societal variables. Recent reports suggest that the use of biologic agents offers potential for reduced work disability rates, but the conclusions are based on surrogate disease activity measures derived from studies primarily from Western countries. Methods: The Quantitative Standard Monitoring of Patients with RA (QUEST-RA) multinational database of 8,039 patients in 86 sites in 32 countries, 16 with high gross domestic product (GDP) (>24K US dollars (USD) per capita) and 16 low-GDP countries (<11K USD), was analyzed for work and disability status at onset and over the course of RA and clinical status of patients who continued working or had stopped working in high-GDP versus low-GDP countries according to all RA Core Data Set measures. Associations of work disability status with RA Core Data Set variables and indices were analyzed using descriptive statistics and regression analyses. Results: At the time of first symptoms, 86% of men (range 57%-100% among countries) and 64% (19%-87%) of women <65 years were working. More than one third (37%) of these patients reported subsequent work disability because of RA. Among 1,756 patients whose symptoms had begun during the 2000s, the probabilities of continuing to work were 80% (95% confidence interval (CI) 78%-82%) at 2 years and 68% (95% CI 65%-71%) at 5 years, with similar patterns in high-GDP and low-GDP countries. Patients who continued working versus stopped working had significantly better clinical status for all clinical status measures and patient self-report scores, with similar patterns in high-GDP and low-GDP countries. However, patients who had stopped working in high-GDP countries had better clinical status than patients who continued working in low-GDP countries. The most significant identifier of work disability in all subgroups was Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) functional disability score. Conclusions: Work disability rates remain high among people with RA during this millennium. In low-GDP countries, people remain working with high levels of disability and disease activity. Cultural and economic differences between societies affect work disability as an outcome measure for RA.

An assessment of population structure in eight breeds of cattle using a whole genome SNP panel

Background: Analyses of population structure and breed diversity have provided insight into the origin and evolution of cattle. Previously, these studies have used a low density of microsatellite markers, however, with the large number of single nucleotide polymorphism markers that are now available, it is possible to perform genome wide population genetic analyses in cattle. In this study, we used a high-density panel of SNP markers to examine population structure and diversity among eight cattle breeds sampled from Bos indicus and Bos taurus. Results: Two thousand six hundred and forty one single nucleotide polymorphisms ( SNPs) spanning all of the bovine autosomal genome were genotyped in Angus, Brahman, Charolais, Dutch Black and White Dairy, Holstein, Japanese Black, Limousin and Nelore cattle. Population structure was examined using the linkage model in the program STRUCTURE and Fst estimates were used to construct a neighbor-joining tree to represent the phylogenetic relationship among these breeds. Conclusion: The whole-genome SNP panel identified several levels of population substructure in the set of examined cattle breeds. The greatest level of genetic differentiation was detected between the Bos taurus and Bos indicus breeds. When the Bos indicus breeds were excluded from the analysis, genetic differences among beef versus dairy and European versus Asian breeds were detected among the Bos taurus breeds. Exploration of the number of SNP loci required to differentiate between breeds showed that for 100 SNP loci, individuals could only be correctly clustered into breeds 50% of the time, thus a large number of SNP markers are required to replace the 30 microsatellite markers that are currently commonly used in genetic diversity studies.

Kinematic analysis and membership status of TWA22 AB

Context. TWA22 was initially regarded as a member of the TW Hydrae association (TWA). In addition to being one of the youngest (approximate to 8 Myr) and nearest (approximate to 20 pc) stars to Earth, TWA22 has proven to be very interesting after being resolved as a tight, very low-mass binary. This binary can serve as a very useful dynamical calibrator for pre-main sequence evolutionary models. However, its membership in the TWA has been recently questioned despite due to the lack of accurate kinematic measurements. Aims. Based on proper motion, radial velocity, and trigonometric parallax measurements, we aim here to re-analyze the membership of TWA22 to young, nearby associations. Methods. Using the ESO NTT/SUSI2 telescope, we observed TWA22 AB during 5 different observing runs over 1.2 years to measure its trigonometric parallax and proper motion. This is a part of a larger project measuring trigonometric parallaxes and proper motions of most known TWA members at a sub-milliarcsec level. HARPS at the ESO 3.6 m telescope was also used to measure the system's radial velocity over 2 years. Results. We report an absolute trigonometric parallax of TWA22 AB, pi = 57.0 +/- 0.7 mas, corresponding to a distance 17.5 +/- 0.2 pc from Earth. Measured proper motions of TWA 22AB are mu(alpha) cos(delta) = -175.8 +/- 0.8 mas/yr and mu delta = -21.3 +/- 0.8 mas/yr. Finally, from HARPS measurements, we obtain a radial velocity V(rad) = 14.8 +/- 2.1 km s(-1). Conclusions. A kinematic analysis of TWA22 AB space motion and position implies that a membership of TWA22 AB to known young, nearby associations can be excluded except for the beta Pictoris and TW Hydrae associations. Membership probabilities based on the system's Galactic space motion and/or the trace-back technique support a higher chance of being a member to the beta Pictoris association. Membership of TWA22 in the TWA cannot be fully excluded because of large uncertainties in parallax measurements and radial velocities and to the uncertain internal velocity dispersion of its members.

Both accurate and precise gf-values for Fe II lines

We present a new set of oscillator strengths for 142 Fe II lines in the wavelength range 4000-8000 angstrom. Our gf-values are both accurate and precise, because each multiplet was globally normalized using laboratory data ( accuracy), while the relative gf-values of individual lines within a given multiplet were obtained from theoretical calculations ( precision). Our line list was tested with the Sun and high-resolution (R approximate to 10(5)), high-S/N (approximate to 700-900) Keck+HIRES spectra of the metal-poor stars HD 148816 and HD 140283, for which line-to-line scatter (sigma) in the iron abundances from Fe II lines as low as 0.03, 0.04, and 0.05 dex are found, respectively. For these three stars the standard error in the mean iron abundance from Fe II lines is negligible (sigma(mean) <= 0.01 dex). The mean solar iron abundance obtained using our gf-values and different model atmospheres is A(Fe) = 7.45(sigma = 0.02).

Mn, Cu, and Zn abundances in barium stars and their correlations with neutron capture elements

Barium stars are optimal sites for studying the correlations between the neutron-capture elements and other species that may be depleted or enhanced, because they act as neutron seeds or poisons during the operation of the s-process. These data are necessary to help constrain the modeling of the neutron-capture paths and explain the s-process abundance curve of the solar system. Chemical abundances for a large number of barium stars with different degrees of s-process excesses, masses, metallicities, and evolutionary states are a crucial step towards this goal. We present abundances of Mn, Cu, Zn, and various light and heavy elements for a sample of barium and normal giant stars, and present correlations between abundances contributed to different degrees by the weak-s, mains, and r-processes of neutron capture, between Fe-peak elements and heavy elements. Data from the literature are also considered in order to better study the abundance pattern of peculiar stars. The stellar spectra were observed with FEROS/ESO. The stellar atmospheric parameters of the eight barium giant stars and six normal giants that we analyzed lie in the range 4300 < T(eff)/K < 5300, -0.7 < [Fe/H] <= 0.12 and 1.5 <= log g < 2.9. Carbon and nitrogen abundances were derived by spectral synthesis of the molecular bands of C(2), CH, and CN. For all other elements we used the atomic lines to perform the spectral synthesis. A very large scatter was found mainly for the Mn abundances when data from the literature were considered. We found that [Zn/Fe] correlates well with the heavy element excesses, its abundance clearly increasing as the heavy element excesses increase, a trend not shown by the [Cu/Fe] and [Mn/Fe] ratios. Also, the ratios involving Mn, Cu, and Zn and heavy elements usually show an increasing trend toward higher metallicities. Our results suggest that a larger fraction of the Zn synthesis than of Cu is owed to massive stars, and that the contribution of the main-s process to the synthesis of both elements is small. We also conclude that Mn is mostly synthesized by SN Ia, and that a non-negligible fraction of the synthesis of Mn, Cu, and Zn is owed to the weak s-process.

Spatial patterns in the brood combs of Nannotrigona testaceicornis (Hymenoptera: Meliponinae): male clusters

Genetic models of sex and caste determination in eusocial stingless bees suggest specific patterns of male, worker and gyne cell distribution in the brood comb. Conflict between queen and laying workers over male parentage and center-periphery gradients of conditions, such as food and temperature, could also contribute to non-random spatial configuration. We converted the positions of the hexagonal cells in a brood comb to Cartesian coordinates, labeled by sex or caste of the individuals inside. To detect and locate clustered patterns, the mapped brood combs were evaluated by indexes of dispersion (MMC, mean distance of cells of a given category from their centroid) and eccentricity (DMB, distance between this centroid and the overall brood comb centroid) that we developed. After randomizing the labels and recalculating the indexes, we calculated probabilities that the original values had been generated by chance. We created sets of binary brood combs in which males were aggregated, regularly or randomly distributed among females. These stylized maps were used to describe the power of MMC and DMB, and they were applied to evaluate the male distribution in the sampled Nannotrigona testaceicornis brood combs. MMC was very sensitive to slight deviations from a perfectly rounded clump; DMB detected any asymmetry in the location of these compact to fuzzy clusters. Six of the 82 brood combs of N. testaceicornis that we analyzed had more than nine males, distributed according to variations in spatial patterns, as indicated by the two indexes.

Critical behavior of the susceptible-infected-recovered model on a square lattice

By means of numerical simulations and epidemic analysis, the transition point of the stochastic asynchronous susceptible-infected-recovered model on a square lattice is found to be c(0)=0.176 500 5(10), where c is the probability a chosen infected site spontaneously recovers rather than tries to infect one neighbor. This point corresponds to an infection/recovery rate of lambda(c)=(1-c(0))/c(0)=4.665 71(3) and a net transmissibility of (1-c(0))/(1+3c(0))=0.538 410(2), which falls between the rigorous bounds of the site and bond thresholds. The critical behavior of the model is consistent with the two-dimensional percolation universality class, but local growth probabilities differ from those of dynamic percolation cluster growth, as is demonstrated explicitly.

Hydro-kinetic approach to relativistic heavy ion collisions

We develop a combined hydro-kinetic approach which incorporates a hydrodynamical expansion of the systems formed in A + A collisions and their dynamical decoupling described by escape probabilities. The method corresponds to a generalized relaxation time (tau(rel)) approximation for the Boltzmann equation applied to inhomogeneous expanding systems; at small tau(rel) it also allows one to catch the viscous effects in hadronic component-hadron-resonance gas. We demonstrate how the approximation of sudden freeze-out can be obtained within this dynamical picture of continuous emission and find that hypersurfaces, corresponding to a sharp freeze-out limit, are momentum dependent. The pion m(T) spectra are computed in the developed hydro-kinetic model, and compared with those obtained from ideal hydrodynamics with the Cooper-Frye isothermal prescription. Our results indicate that there does not exist a universal freeze-out temperature for pions with different momenta, and support an earlier decoupling of higher p(T) particles. By performing numerical simulations for various initial conditions and equations of state we identify several characteristic features of the bulk QCD matter evolution preferred in view of the current analysis of heavy ion collisions at RHIC energies.