Small-World Effect in Epidemics Using Cellular Automata

The spread of an infectious disease in a population involves interactions leading to an epidemic outbreak through a network of contacts. Extending on Watts and Strogatz (1998) who showed that short-distance connections create a small-world effect, a model combining short-and long-distance probabilistic and regularly updated contacts helps considering spatial heterogeneity. The method is based on cellular automata. The presence of long-distance connections accelerates the small-world effect, as if the world shrank in proportion of their total number.

Estimating the True Incidence of Rubella

The true incidence of infectious diseases is difficult to determine from surveillance or from notification data. The proportion of new infections of rubella yields a model from serological surveys. The discrepancy between results and official notification data before vaccination era leads one to suspect the presence of hidden infections. Simulation on 80% of effective vaccination coverage shows a similar discrepancy of the total number of infections compared to notification data.

Dynamics and Control of Stray Dog Populations

The population dynamics of stray dogs is simulated to assess the effects of sterilization and euthanasia. From simulations representing less than 5 years, sterilization is less efficient than euthanasia to reduce the stray dog population, considering similar rates, but the total number of sterilized dogs is less than the total number of euthanized dogs per km(2) per year. Over 20 years, both strategies have similar efficiency. Beyond a certain rate of dog abandonment, both strategies are inefficient.

Impacts of Animal Traffic on the Brazilian Amazon Parrots (Amazona species) Collection of the Quinzinho de Barros Municipal Zoological Park, Brazil, 1986-2007

Eleven species of Amazon parrots (genus Amazona) are known to occur in Brazil, and nest poaching and illegal traffic pose serious conservation threats to these species. When the illegal owners realize these animals are incompatible with their expectations and lifestyle, or when the police arrests traders and owners, these trafficked animals are often considered unfit for release and sent to local zoos and captive breeders. A retrospective survey of animal and necropsy records from 1986 to 2007 was used to evaluate the impacts of animal traffic on the population composition and mortality patterns of Amazon parrots at the Quinzinho de Barros Municipal Zoological Park, Sorocaba, Brazil. Data were obtained for 374 Amazon parrots of ten Brazilian species, and there was evidence that the studied population could be split into two major groups: a majority belonging to the Amazona aestiva species and a minority belonging to the remaining species. In comparison, the animals of the first group were more frequently admitted from traffic-related origins (98 vs. 75%), had a shorter lifespan (median 301 days vs. 848 days) and a higher mortality within the first year postadmission (54 vs. 37%), were less likely to receive expensive treatments, and were more frequently housed off-exhibit. On an average, parrots were found to have a short postadmission lifespan (median 356 days), with 92.5% of the birds dying within their first five years in captivity. The paper discusses the difficult dilemmas these incoming traffic-related animals pose to zoo management and official anti-traffic policies. Zoo Biol 29:600-614, 2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Forest-obligate Sabethes mosquitoes suggest palaeoecological perturbations

The origin of tropical forest diversity has been hotly debated for decades. Although specific mechanisms vary, many such explanations propose some vicariance in the distribution of species during glacial cycles and several have been supported by genetic evidence in Neotropical taxa. However, no consensus exists with regard to the extent or time frame of the vicariance events. Here, we analyse the cytochrome oxidase II mitochondrial gene of 250 Sabethes albiprivus B mosquitoes sampled from western Sao Paulo in Brazil. There was very low population structuring among collection sites (Phi(ST) = 0.03, P = 0.04). Historic demographic analyses and the contemporary geographic distribution of genetic diversity suggest that the populations sampled are not at demographic equilibrium. Three distinct mitochondrial clades were observed in the samples, one of which differed significantly in its geographic distribution relative to the other two within a small sampling area (similar to 70 x 35 km). This fact, supported by the inability of maximum likelihood analyses to achieve adequate fits to simple models for the population demography of the species, suggests a more complex history, possibly involving disjunct forest refugia. This hypothesis is supported by a genetic signal of recent population growth, which is expected if population sizes of this forest-obligate insect increased during the forest expansions that followed glacial periods. Although a time frame cannot be reliably inferred for the vicariance event leading to the three genetic clades, molecular clock estimates place this at similar to 1 Myr before present.

Working at night and work ability among nursing personnel: when precarious employment makes the difference

To test the association between night work and work ability, and verify whether the type of contractual employment has any influence over this association. Permanent workers (N = 642) and workers with precarious jobs (temporary contract or outsourced; N = 552) were interviewed and filled out questionnaires concerning work hours and work ability index. They were classified into: never worked at night, ex-night workers, currently working up to five nights, and currently working at least six nights/2-week span. After adjusting for socio-demography and work variables, current night work was significantly associated with inadequate WAI (vs. day work with no experience in night work) only for precarious workers (OR 2.00, CI 1.01-3.95 and OR 1.85, CI 1.09-3.13 for those working up to five nights and those working at least six nights in 2 weeks, respectively). Unequal opportunities at work and little experience in night work among precarious workers may explain their higher susceptibility to night work.

Production systems - An example from Brazil

Important information about the Brazilian agribusiness, population and economy are presented in this paper, as well as details of beef production, market, industry and production system, to inform people involved in meat industry about details on demography, production, economy and production systems of a country that is the largest player in beef exports in the world and that uses, mostly, Bos indicus based bovine population, reared under pasture conditions, for meat production purposes. Herd size, genetic evaluation programs, quantity of beef produced and market is informed, with figures about the global and major players` production. Some discussion related to environmental concerns, methane emission and carbon fixation is also presented, as well as meat quality. Meat quality of fed animals is also compared with beef from animals that are raised in pasture conditions. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Balanced polymorphism in bottlenecked populations: The case of the CCR5 5 ` cis-regulatory region in Amazonian Amerindians

The 5` cis-regulatory region of the CCR5 gene exhibits a strong signature of balancing selection in several human populations. Here we analyze the polymorphism of this region in Amerindians from Amazonia, who have a complex demographic history, including recent bottlenecks that are known to reduce genetic variability. Amerindians show high nucleotide diversity (pi = 0.27%) and significantly positive Tajima`s D, and carry haplotypes associated with weak and strong gene expression. To evaluate whether these signatures of balancing selection could be explained by demography, we perform neutrality tests based on empiric and simulated data. The observed Tajima`s D was higher than that of other world populations: higher than that found for 18 noncoding regions of South Amerindians, and higher than 99.6% of simulated genealogies, which assume nonequilibrium conditions. Moreover, comparing Amerindians and Asians, the Fst for CCR5 cis-regulatory region was unusually low, in relation to neutral markers. These findings indicate that, despite their complex demographic history, South Amerindians carry a detectable signature of selection on the CCR5 cis-regulatory region. (C) 2010 American Society for Histocompatibility and Immunogenetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The genetic effects of Late Quaternary climatic changes over a tropical latitudinal gradient: diversification of an Atlantic Forest passerine

The increase in biodiversity from high to low latitudes is a widely recognized biogeographical pattern. According to the latitudinal gradient hypothesis (LGH), this pattern was shaped by differential effects of Late Quaternary climatic changes across a latitudinal gradient. Here, we evaluate the effects of climatic changes across a tropical latitudinal gradient and its implications to diversification of an Atlantic Forest (AF) endemic passerine. We studied the intraspecific diversification and historical demography of Sclerurus scansor, based on mitochondrial (ND2, ND3 and cytb) and nuclear (FIB7) gene sequences. Phylogenetic analyses recovered three well-supported clades associated with distinct latitudinal zones. Coalescent-based methods were applied to estimate divergence times and changes in effective population sizes. Estimates of divergence times indicate that intraspecific diversification took place during Middle-Late Pleistocene. Distinct demographic scenarios were identified, with the southern lineage exhibiting a clear signature of demographic expansion, while the central one remained more stable. The northern lineage, contrasting with LGH predictions, exhibited a clear sign of a recent bottleneck. Our results suggest that different AF regions reacted distinctly, even in opposite ways, under the same climatic period, producing simultaneously favourable scenarios for isolation and contact among populations.

Population biology and regeneration of forbs and shrubs after fire in Brazilian Campos grasslands

Fire is an important factor in several ecosystems, affecting plant population biology. Campos grasslands are under constant influence of disturbance, mostly grazing and fire. However, few studies evaluated the effect of fire on plant population biology of grassland species. Therefore, we aim to analyze the effect of fire on the population biology of four species, from different functional groups and regeneration strategies: Chaptalia runcinata (forb, resprouter, absence of belowground organ), Vernonia flexuosa (forb, resprouter, presence of rhizophore), Eupatorium ligulaefolium (shrub, resprouter, presence of xylopodium) and Heterothalamus psiadioides (shrub, obligate seeder). Seven plots were established in different sites in southern Brazil: frequently burned (FB) and excluded from fire since 6 years (E). All plots were subjected to controlled burns during summer. Before experiments, populations were sampled. Further observations were carried out after 90 and after 360 days of fire experiments. In addition, we counted the number of seedlings and resprouters recruited after fire. Heat shock experiments were conducted with two species (H. psiadioides and V. flexuosa), as well as the study of the bud bank of the following species: E. ligulaefolium and V. flexuosa. The obligate seeder species had all individuals killed by fire and established only after 1 year. Resprouters, however, showed new stems immediately after fire. E. ligulaefolium and V. flexuosa showed only vegetative regeneration from belowground organs and more individuals in excluded sites 1 year after the fire. The bud bank of E. ligulaefolium tended to be larger in excluded sites, whilst V. flexuosa showed an opposite result. High temperatures did not enhance nor kill seeds from both studied species. Vegetative regeneration was the most important strategy for all studied species, except for H. psiadioides, the obligate seeder species. Fire thus, plays an important role on population structure and demography, being also important for plant recruitment.