Um modelo estocástico combinado de previsão sazonal para a precipitação no Brasil

Este artigo discute um modelo de previsão combinada para a realização de prognósticos climáticos na escala sazonal. Nele, previsões pontuais de modelos estocásticos são agregadas para obter as melhores projeções no tempo. Utilizam-se modelos estocásticos autoregressivos integrados a médias móveis, de suavização exponencial e previsões por análise de correlações canônicas. O controle de qualidade das previsões é feito através da análise dos resíduos e da avaliação do percentual de redução da variância não-explicada da modelagem combinada em relação às previsões dos modelos individuais. Exemplos da aplicação desses conceitos em modelos desenvolvidos no Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) mostram bons resultados e ilustram que as previsões do modelo combinado, superam na maior parte dos casos a de cada modelo componente, quando comparadas aos dados observados.

Padrões de distribuição geográfica das espécies de Schefflera J. R. Forst. & G. Forst. (Araliaceae) do Brasil extra-amazônico

Uma análise da distribuição geográfica de Schefflera no Brasil extra-amazônico foi realizada com base em mapas atualizados plotando as ocorrências conhecidas das 26 espécies do gênero encontradas nessa grande área: S. angustissima (Marchal) Frodin, S. aurata Fiaschi, S. botumirimensis Fiaschi & Pirani, S. burchellii (Seem.) Frodin & Fiaschi, S. calva (Cham.) Frodin & Fiaschi, S. capixaba Fiaschi, S. cephalantha (Harms) Frodin, S. cordata (Taub.) Frodin & Fiaschi, S. distractiflora (Harms) Frodin, S. fruticosa Fiaschi & Pirani, S. gardneri (Seem.) Frodin & Fiaschi, S. glaziovii (Taub.) Frodin & Fiaschi, S. grandigemma Fiaschi, S. kollmannii Fiaschi, S. longipetiolata (Pohl ex DC.) Frodin & Fiaschi, S. lucumoides (Decne. & Planch. ex Marchal) Frodin & Fiaschi, S. macrocarpa (Cham. & Schltdl.) Frodin, S. malmei (Harms) Frodin, S. morototoni (Aubl.) Maguire, Steyermark & Frodin, S. racemifera Fiaschi & Frodin, S. ruschiana Fiaschi & Pirani, S. selloi (Marchal) Frodin & Fiaschi, S. succinea Frodin & Fiaschi, S. villosissima Fiaschi & Pirani, S. vinosa (Cham. & Schltdl.) Frodin & Fiaschi e S. aff. varisiana Frodin. Dois centros de endemismo associados com áreas de altitude elevada foram reconhecidos: Cadeia do Espinhaço em Minas Gerais e florestas montanas do Estado do Espírito Santo. Os padrões de distribuição geográfica ilustrados são discutidos com base em dados obtidos para outros grupos de angiospermas e em estudos fitogeográficos das principais fitocórias do Brasil extra-amazônico. São apresentadas também hipóteses acerca de prováveis relações filogenéticas entre alguns táxons, visando à busca de possíveis correlações entre estas e a biogeografia do grupo.

Morphology and anatomy of leaf miners in two species of Commelinaceae (Commelina diffusa Burm. f. and Floscopa glabrata (Kunth) Hassk)

In specialized literature, reports on anatomy of miners in host plants are few in number. These agents trigger excavations, or paths, by consumption of plant inner tissues by larvae of several insects. The aim of this work was to investigate leaf miner occurrence in Commelina diffusa (a cosmopolitan plant) and Floscopa glabrata (an amphibious plant) using anatomical techniques. The place where the plants were collected is subjected to seasonal floods, consequently both the species were exposed to the same weather conditions and seasonal floods. This study showed that members of Agromyzidae and Chironomidae families, which are Diptera endophytophagous larvae types, were responsible for the tunnels. Moreover, in Commelina diffusa Agromyzidae larvae were found, while in Floscopa glabrata three Chironomidae cephalic exuviae were found. The miners, as can be seen from anatomical studies, used only mesophyll parenchyma tissues for feeding, causing the formation of linear mines. In addition, in both the species, the epidermis and the medium-sized vascular units were kept intact, showing no structural modification, such as neoformation of tissues.

Genotype-phenotype correlation in Brazillian Rett syndrome patients

BACKGROUND: Rett syndrome (RS) is a severe neurodevelopmental X-linked dominant disorder caused by mutations in the MECP2 gene. PURPOSE: To search for point mutations on the MECP2 gene and to establish a correlation between the main point mutations found and the phenotype. METHOD: Clinical evaluation of 105 patients, following a standard protocol. Detection of point mutations on the MECP2 gene was performed on peripheral blood DNA by sequencing the coding region of the gene. RESULTS: Classical RS was seen in 68% of the patients. Pathogenic point mutations were found in 64.1% of all patients and in 70.42% of those with the classical phenotype. Four new sequence variations were found, and their nature suggests patogenicity. Genotype-phenotype correlations were performed. CONCLUSION: Detailed clinical descriptions and identification of the underlying genetic alterations of this Brazilian RS population add to our knowledge of genotype/phenotype correlations, guiding the implementation of mutation searching programs.

Effects of uterine cervix constriction on Wistar rats

PURPOSE: To verify if uterine cerclage can induce craniosynostosis or any cranial deformity in new born Wistar rats. METHODS: One pregnant female Wistar rat underwent laparotomy on day 18 of gestation and the uterus cervix was closed with a 3-0 nylon suture to avoid delivery, that occurs normally on the 21 day. The suture was released after 48 hours beyond the normal gestation period. The female rat delivered 11 pups. Six surviving rats from the delivery (group A - constrained group). Two rats were born from another mother and in the same age were used as control group (group B - 2 nonconstrained controls) were allowed to grow. They were sacrificed 1.2 years after their birth all the eight animals. Linear measurement, routine histology and computed tomography of the skull were performed at the time of their death to evaluate the cranial asymmetries by mesurements of the anatomical landmarks of the craniofacial skeleton of the rats on the two groups and compared then. RESULTS: We did not observe statistically significant differences in any of the compared measurements (p>0.05) obtained through the morphologic and radiologic methods. Histologic examinations did not reveal any sign of premature fusion or suture imbrications. Critical decrease in longitudinal body size was noticed as the limbs too in all the animals of group A. CONCLUSION: Constriction of uterine cervix leads to fetus suffering, even death for a few animals, associated to small body size, but not to craniosynostosis.

Birds from cerradão woodland, an overlooked forest of the Cerrado region, Brazil

The Cerrado region still receives relatively little ornithological attention, although it is regarded as the only tropical savanna in the world considered to be a biodiversity hotspot. Cerradão is one of the least known and most deforested Cerrado physiognomies and few recent bird surveys have been conducted in these forests. In order to rescue bird records and complement the few existing inventories of this under-studied forest type in the state of São Paulo, we looked for published papers on birds of cerradão. Additionally we surveyed birds at a 314-ha cerradão remnant located in central São Paulo, Brazil, from September 2005-December 2006 using unlimited distance transect counts. Out of 95 investigations involving cerradão bird studies, only 17 (18%) investigations teased apart bird species recorded inside cerradão from those recorded in other physiognomies of Cerrado. Except for one study, no research found more than 64 species in this type of forest, a result shared within many regions from Brazil and Bolivia. Differences in species richness do not seem be related with levels of disturbance of landscape or fragment size. Considering all species recorded in cerradão in Brazil and Bolivia, a compilation of data accumulated 250 species in 36 families and 15 orders. In recent surveys at central São Paulo, we recorded 48 species in 20 families, including the Pale-bellied Tyrant-Manakin Neopelma pallescens, threatened in São Paulo, and the Helmeted Manakin Antilophia galeata, near threatened in the state and endemic to the Cerrado region. Among the most abundant species inside this fragment, none was considered to be neither threatened nor endemic.

Impact on human health of particulate matter emitted from burnings in the Brazilian Amazon region

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the impact on human health of exposure to particulate matter emitted from burnings in the Brazilian Amazon region. METHODS: This was an ecological study using an environmental exposure indicator presented as the percentage of annual hours (AH%) of PM2.5 above 80 μg/m3. The outcome variables were the rates of hospitalization due to respiratory disease among children, the elderly and the intermediate age group, and due to childbirth. Data were obtained from the National Space Research Institute and the Ministry of Health for all of the microregions of the Brazilian Amazon region, for the years 2004 and 2005. Multiple regression models for the outcome variables in relation to the predictive variable AH% of PM2.5 above 80 μg/m3 were analyzed. The Human Development Index (HDI) and mean number of complete blood counts per 100 inhabitants in the Brazilian Amazon region were the control variables in the regression analyses. RESULTS: The association of the exposure indicator (AH%) was higher for the elderly than for other age groups (β = 0.10). For each 1% increase in the exposure indicator there was an increase of 8% in child hospitalization, 10% in hospitalization of the elderly, and 5% for the intermediate age group, even after controlling for HDI and mean number of complete blood counts. No association was found between the AH% and hospitalization due to childbirth. CONCLUSIONS: The indicator of atmospheric pollution showed an association with occurrences of respiratory diseases in the Brazilian Amazon region, especially in the more vulnerable age groups. This indicator may be used to assess the effects of forest burning on human health.

Ressonância não linear de uma bússola em campos magnéticos

Fenômenos oscilatórios e ressonantes são explorados em vários cursos experimentais de física. Em geral os experimentos são interpretados no limite de pequenas oscilações e campos uniformes. Neste artigo descrevemos um experimento de baixo custo para o estudo da ressonância em campo magnético da agulha de uma bússola fora dos limites acima. Nesse caso, termos não lineares na equação diferencial são responsáveis por fenômenos interessantes de serem explorados em laboratórios didáticos.

Transpressive dextral shear in the Italva-Itaperuna section, Northern State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Structural analysis carried out on a segment of the Neoproterozoic Ribeira Belt, southeastern Brazil, show that it represents part of the transpressive dextral orogen related to the Central Mantiqueira Province. NNE-trending and steeply dipping regional mylonitic belts form anastomosed geometry, and describe a map-scale, S-C-like structure that is characterized by their deflection towards NE near the Além Paraíba Lineament. Lithological and structural control related to deformation partition were responsible for the formation of felsic mylonitic granulites with S-type granites lenses developed in ductile shear zones, alternated with less deformed intermediate to basic granulites associated with charnockites. The dextral shear sense indicators are consistent with transpressive deformation in the region and are common especially at the border of the main shear zones. The presence of S-type leucogranite may lead to variations of linear and planar relationships, which result in local extension zones. These elements are consistent with oblique continental collision considering the São Francisco Craton as a stable block.

Dose de exposição radiométrica de granitos do estado de Rondônia, Brasil

Este trabalho avaliou a concentração dos radioelementos K, eU e eTh em amostras de granitos do Estado de Rondônia, Brasil. A análise estatística dos dados obtidos indicou que eles seguem distribuições lognormais. Os valores modais encontrados correspondem a cerca de 11% para K, 29 ppm para eU e 85 ppm para eTh. Correlações diretas significativas foram determinadas entre as concentrações dos três radioelementos, isto é, r = 0,71 (entre K e eU), r = 0,72 (entre K e eTh)e r = 0,72 (entre eU e eTh), sugerindo que são congruentes os processos de seu acúmulo nos minerais das rochas analisadas. Os dados de concentração permitiram estimar a taxa de dose absorvida de radiação no ar acima de 1 m do nível do terreno, a qual também segue uma distribuição lognormal, com valor modal de 2,7 mSv/ano, que é ligeiramente superior à média global de 2,4 mSv/ano. Os resultados obtidos também permitiram avaliar, do ponto de vista radiométrico, se os granitos analisados são adequados para emprego como revestimento em construção civil.

Investimento materno e história reprodutiva de mães residentes em contextos com diferentes graus de urbanização

A presente pesquisa tem como objetivo caracterizar o investimento materno e a história reprodutiva de mães que vivem em diferentes contextos. Para tal, 150 mães que residiam em três contextos com diferentes graus de urbanização foram entrevistadas. Por meio da análise estatística dos dados constatou-se que houve diferenças significativas entre os contextos, além de correlações positivas entre os núcleos reprodutivos, como idade da primeira relação sexual e idade da mãe no nascimento do primeiro filho. Conclui-se que as estratégias reprodutivas são influenciadas pela história de vida das mães, das condições sociodemográficas atuais e do contexto onde vivem.

Rheology of decane/water and triglyceride/water emulsions stabilized by β-casein and sodium caseinate

β-Casein and sodium caseinate stabilized emulsions were produced and had their rheological properties investigated as a function of the nature of the oil phase, ionic strength and pH. Oil phases of distinct structural characteristics, namely decane and vegetable oil of high triglyceride content, were assayed. The former was much more effectively emulsified than the latter. Effects of pH and ionic strength were minor. Emulsion rheological properties were strikingly distinct in each case, with viscoelastic, solid-like structures being formed with decane (G' >> G"), differently from what is observed for samples containing triglycerides as the oil phase, in which viscoelasticity was not even apparent. The relevance of the spatial features of the oil phase structure in the development of the emulsion viscoelastic character is discussed. Factors responding for the system distinct behaviour possibly reside at the emulsion droplet interface, unapproachable by optical microscopy, rather than on aspects related to particle size or shape.

Headland-bay beach planform stability of Santa Catarina State and of the Northern Coast of São Paulo State

This paper presents the results of the planform stability classification for the headland-bay beaches of the State of Santa Catarina and of the Northern Coast of São Paulo, based on the application of the Parabolic Bay-Shape Equation (PBSE) to aerial images of the beaches, using the software MEPBAY®. For this purpose, georeferenced mosaics of the QuickBird2® satellite imagery (for the State of Santa Catarina) and vertical aerial photographs (for the northern coast of São Paulo State) were used. Headland-bay beach planform stability can be classified as: (1) in static equilibrium, (2) in dynamic equilibrium, (3) unstable or (4) in a state of natural beach reshaping. Static equilibrium beaches are the most frequent along the coast of the State of Santa Catarina and the Northern Shore of São Paulo, notably along the most rugged sectors of the coast and those with experiencing lower fluvial discharge. By comparison, dynamic equilibrium beaches occur primarily on the less rugged sectors of the coast and along regions with higher fluvial discharge. Beaches in a state of natural beach reshaping have only been found in SC, associated with stabilized estuarine inlets or port breakwaters. However, it is not possible to classify any of these beaches as unstable because only one set of images was used. No clear relation was observed between a beach's planform stability and other classification factors, such as morphodynamics or orientation.

Boracéia Biological Station: an ornithological review

Boracéia Biological Station, near the city of Salesópolis, SP, is located in one of the most well-defined centers of endemism in eastern Brazil - the Serra do Mar Center. While the station was established only in 1954 under the auspices of the Museu de Zoologia da Universidade de São Paulo, the avifauna of this locality had already attracted the attention of ornithologists by the 1940s, when the first specimens were collected. Here we describe the ornithological history of the Boracéia Biological Station with a review of all the bird species recorded during more than 68 years, including recent transect and mist-netting records. Boracéia's records were found in museums, literature and unpublished reports that totaled 323 bird species when recent data is also considered. Of these, 117 are endemic to the Atlantic forest and 28 are threatened in the state. Although there are a few doubtful records that need to be checked, some species are the only sightings in the state. Boracéia includes a recently discovered species near the station site and is extremely important for the conservation of Atlantic forest birds.

Tendência temporal e desigualdades na mortalidade por diarreias em menores de 5 anos

OBJETIVO: Analisar a tendência da mortalidade por diarreia entre menores de 5 anos, no município de Osasco (SP), entre 1980 e 2000. MÉTODOS: Trata-se de estudo observacional com dois delineamentos. Um descritivo, que toma o indivíduo como unidade do estudo, e outro ecológico, analisando agregado populacional que incluiu análise de séries temporais. A fonte de dados foi o sistema de informação de mortalidade do Estado de São Paulo e censos de 1980, 1991 e 2000. Descreveu-se a variação sazonal e para a análise de tendência aplicaram-se modelos log lineares de regressão polinomiais, utilizando-se variáveis sociodemográficas da criança e da mãe. Foram analisadas a evolução de indicadores sociodemográficos do município de 1980 a 2000, as taxas médias de mortalidade por diarreia nos menores de 5 anos e seus diferenciais por distrito nos anos 90. RESULTADOS: Dos 1.360 óbitos, 94,3 e 75,3% atingiram, respectivamente, menores de 1 ano e de 6 meses. O declínio da mortalidade foi de 98,3%, com deslocamento da sazonalidade do verão para o outono. A mediana da idade elevou-se de 2 meses nos primeiros períodos para 3 meses no último. O resíduo de óbitos manteve-se entre filhos de mães de 20 a 29 anos e escolaridade < 8 anos. O risco relativo entre o distrito mais atingido e a taxa média do município diminuiu de 3,4 para 1,3 do primeiro para o segundo quinquênio dos anos 90. CONCLUSÃO: Nossos resultados apontam uma elevação da idade mais vulnerável e a provável mudança do agente mais frequentemente associado ao óbito por diarreia.