Estimating hourly net radiation for leaf wetness duration using the Penman-Monteith equation

Leaf wetness duration (LWD) is related to plant disease occurrence and is therefore a key parameter in agrometeorology. As LWD is seldom measured at standard weather stations, it must be estimated in order to ensure the effectiveness of warning systems and the scheduling of chemical disease control. Among the models used to estimate LWD, those that use physical principles of dew formation and dew and/or rain evaporation have shown good portability and sufficiently accurate results for operational use. However, the requirement of net radiation (Rn) is a disadvantage foroperational physical models, since this variable is usually not measured over crops or even at standard weather stations. With the objective of proposing a solution for this problem, this study has evaluated the ability of four models to estimate hourly Rn and their impact on LWD estimates using a Penman-Monteith approach. A field experiment was carried out in Elora, Ontario, Canada, with measurements of LWD, Rn and other meteorological variables over mowed turfgrass for a 58 day period during the growing season of 2003. Four models for estimating hourly Rn based on different combinations of incoming solar radiation (Rg), airtemperature (T), relative humidity (RH), cloud cover (CC) and cloud height (CH), were evaluated. Measured and estimated hourly Rn values were applied in a Penman-Monteith model to estimate LWD. Correlating measured and estimated Rn, we observed that all models performed well in terms of estimating hourly Rn. However, when cloud data were used the models overestimated positive Rn and underestimated negative Rn. When only Rg and T were used to estimate hourly Rn, the model underestimated positive Rn and no tendency was observed for negative Rn. The best performance was obtained with Model I, which presented, in general, the smallest mean absolute error (MAE) and the highest C-index. When measured LWD was compared to the Penman-Monteith LWD, calculated with measured and estimated Rn, few differences were observed. Both precision and accuracy were high, with the slopes of the relationships ranging from 0.96 to 1.02 and R-2 from 0.85 to 0.92, resulting in C-indices between 0.87 and 0.93. The LWD mean absolute errors associated with Rn estimates were between 1.0 and 1.5h, which is sufficient for use in plant disease management schemes.

Simulation of irrigated Thanzania grass growth based on photothermal units, nitrogen fertilization and water availability

Simulation of irrigated Thanzania grass growth based on photothermal units, nitrogen fertilization and water availability. The mathematical model to predict the forage yield using photothennal units was utilized with success in Elephant grass, Thanzania and Brachiaria niziziensis in the absence of water stress and nitrogen stress. The aim of this study was to propose models to estimate the forage yield of Thanzania grass under different irrigation (25, 50,75, 100 e 125% of ETc) and nitrogen level in various regions of Brazil. As such, models were developed to estimate the dry matter production of Panicum maximum Jacq. frass cv Thanzania in different irrigation and nitrogen levels, using photothermal units. The models were adjusted to doses of 0, 30, 60, 110 and 270 kg of N ha(-1), doses were divided in applications after each evaluation, with a rest cycle of 35 days. The adjusted model presented good performance in predicting dry matter production of Thanzania grass, with r(2) = 0.9999. The results made it possible to verify that the proposed model can be used to predict forage production in different regions of Brazil. It can be estimated, with good precision. The production of Thanzania grass dry matter can be accurately estimated in specific places (in function of latitude and time of year), with the maximum and minimum temperature values.

Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

Annual and polyetic progression of citrus canker on trees protected with copper sprays

The effects of copper sprays on annual and polyetic progress of citrus canker, caused by Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri, in the presence of the Asian citrus leafminer (Phyllocnistis citrella), were evaluated in a study conducted in a commercial orchard in northwest Parana state, Brazil, where citrus canker is endemic. Nonlinear monomolecular, logistic and Gompertz models were fitted to monthly disease incidence data (proportion of leaves with symptoms) for each treatment for three seasons. The logistic model provided the best estimate of disease progress for all years and treatments evaluated and logistic parameter estimates were used to describe polyetic disease dynamics. Although citrus canker incidence increased during each of the seasons studied, it decreased over the whole study period, more so in copper-treated trees than in water-sprayed controls. Copper treatment reduced disease incidence compared with controls in every year, especially 2004-2005, when incidence was ca. 10-fold higher in controls than in treated plots (estimated asymptote values 0 center dot 82 and 0 center dot 07, respectively). Copper treatment also reduced estimated initial disease incidence and epidemic growth rates every year.

Quantitative Trait Loci Mapping and The Genetic Basis of Heterosis in Maize and Rice

Despite its importance to agriculture, the genetic basis of heterosis is still not well understood. The main competing hypotheses include dominance, overdominance, and epistasis. NC design III is an experimental design that. has been used for estimating the average degree of dominance of quantitative trait 106 (QTL) and also for studying heterosis. In this study, we first develop a multiple-interval mapping (MIM) model for design III that provides a platform to estimate the number, genomic positions, augmented additive and dominance effects, and epistatic interactions of QTL. The model can be used for parents with any generation of selling. We apply the method to two data sets, one for maize and one for rice. Our results show that heterosis in maize is mainly due to dominant gene action, although overdominance of individual QTL could not completely be ruled out due to the mapping resolution and limitations of NC design III. For rice, the estimated QTL dominant effects could not explain the observed heterosis. There is evidence that additive X additive epistatic effects of QTL could be the main cause for the heterosis in rice. The difference in the genetic basis of heterosis seems to be related to open or self pollination of the two species. The MIM model for NC design III is implemented in Windows QTL Cartographer, a freely distributed software.

Ammonia volatilization in soil treated with tannery sludge

The utilization of tannery sludge in agricultural areas can be an alternative for its disposal and recycling. Despite this procedure may cause the loss of nitrogen by ammonia volatilization, there is no information about this process in tropical soils. For two years a field experiment was carried out in Rolandia (Parana State, Brazil), to evaluate the amount of NH(3) volatilization due to tannery sludge application on agricultural soil. The doses of total N applied varied from zero to 1200 kg ha(-1), maintained at the surface for 89 days, as usual in this region. The alkalinity of the tannery sludge used was equivalent to between 262 and 361 g CaCO(3) per kg. Michaelis-Menten equation was adequate to estimate NH(3)-N volatilization kinetics. The relation between total nitrogen applied as tannery sludge and the potentially volatilized NH(3)-N, calculated by the chemical-kinetics equation resulted in an average determination coefficient of 0.87 (P > 0.01). In this period, the amount of volatilized NH(3) was more intense during the first 30 days; the time to reach half of the maximum NH(3) volatilization (K(m)) was 13 an 9 days for the first and second experiments, respectively. The total loss as ammonia in the whole period corresponded in average to 17.5% of the total N applied and to 35% of the NH(4)(+)-N present in the sludge. If tannery sludge is to be surface applied to supply N for crops, the amounts lost as NH(3) must be taken into consideration. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics in Oxisols of Ibiruba (Brazil) with the Century Model

introduction of conservation practices in degraded agricultural land will generally recuperate soil quality, especially by increasing soil organic matter. This aspect of soil organic C (SOC) dynamics under distinct cropping and management systems can be conveniently analyzed with ecosystem models such as the Century Model. In this study, Century was used to simulate SOC stocks in farm fields of the Ibiruba region of north central Rio Grande do Sul state in Southern Brazil. The region, where soils are predominantly Oxisols, was originally covered with subtropical woodlands and grasslands. SOC dynamics was simulated with a general scenario developed with historical data on soil management and cropping systems beginning with the onset of agriculture in 1900. From 1993 to 2050, two contrasting scenarios based on no-tillage soil management were established: the status quo scenario, with crops and agricultural inputs as currently practiced in the region and the high biomass scenario with increased frequency of corn in the cropping system, resulting in about 80% higher biomass addition to soils. Century simulations were in close agreement with SOC stocks measured in 2005 in the Oxisols with finer texture surface horizon originally under woodlands. However, simulations in the Oxisols with loamy surface horizon under woodlands and in the grassland soils were not as accurate. SOC stock decreased from 44% to 50% in fields originally under woodland and from 20% to 27% in fields under grasslands with the introduction of intensive annual grain crops with intensive tillage and harrowing operations. The adoption of conservation practices in the 1980s led to a stabilization of SOC stocks followed by a partial recovery of native stocks. Simulations to 2050 indicate that maintaining status quo would allow SOC stocks to recover from 81% to 86% of the native stocks under woodland and from 80% to 91 % of the native stocks under grasslands. Adoption of a high biomass scenario would result in stocks from 75% to 95% of the original stocks under woodlands and from 89% to 102% in the grasslands by 2050. These simulations outcomes underline the importance of cropping system yielding higher biomass to further increase SOC content in these Oxisols. This application of the Century Model could reproduce general trends of SOC loss and recovery in the Oxisols of the Ibiruba region. Additional calibration and validation should be conducted before extensive usage of Century as a support tool for soil carbon sequestration projects in this and other regions can be recommended. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contribution of soil organic carbon to the ion exchange capacity of tropical soils

Highly weathered soils represent about 3 billion ha of the tropical region. Oxisols represent about 60% of the Brazilian territory (more than 5 million km 2), in areas of great agricultural importance. Soil organic carbon (SOC) can be responsible for more than 80% of the cation exchange capacity (CEC) of highly weathered soils, such as Oxisols and Ultisols. The objective of this study was to estimate the contribution of the SOC to the CEC of Brazilian soils from different orders. Surface samples (0.0 to 0.2 m) of 30 uncultivated soils (13 Oxisols, 6 Ultisols, 5 Alfisols, 3 Entisols, I Histosol, 1 Inceptisol. and I Molisol), under native forests and from reforestation sites from Sao Paulo State, Brazil, were collected in order to obtain a large variation of (electro)chemical, physical, and mineralogical soil attributes. Total content of SOC was quantified by titulometric and colorimetric methods. Effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC) was obtained by two methods: the indirect method-summation-estimated the ECECi from the sum of basic cations (Ca+ Mg+ K+ Na) and exchangeable Al; and the direct ECECd obtained by the compulsive exchange method, using unbuffered BaCl2 solution. The contribution of SOC to the soil CEC was estimated by the Bennema statistical method. The amount of SOC var ied from 6.6 g kg(-1) to 213.4 g kg(-1). while clay contents varied from 40 g kg(-1) to 716 g kg(-1). Soil organic carbon contents were strongly associated to the clay contents, suggesting that clay content was the primary variable in controling the variability of SOC contents in the samples. Cation exchange capacity varied from 7.0 mmol(c) kg(-1) to 137.8 mmol(c) kg(-1) and had a positive Correlation with SOC. The mean contribution (per grain) of the SOC (1.64 mmol(c)) for the soil CEC was more than 44 times higher than the contribution of the clay fraction (0.04 mmol(c),). A regression model that considered the SOC content as the only significant variable explained 60% of the variation in the soil total CEC. The importance of SOC was related to soil pedogenetic process, since its contribution to the soil CEC was more evident in Oxisols with predominance of Fe and Al (oxihydr)oxides in the mineral fraction or in Ultisols, that presented illuviated clay. The influence of SOC in the sign and in the magnitude of the net charge of soils reinforce the importance of agricultural management systems that preserve high levels of SOC, in order to improve their sustainability.

Deciphering the weathering processes using environmental mineralogy and geochemistry: Towards an integrated model of laterite and podzol genesis in the Upper Amazon Basin

This article reports major results from collaborative research between France and Brazil on soil and water systems, carried out in the Upper Amazon Basin. It reveals the weathering processes acting in the partly inundated, low elevation plateaus of the Basin, mostly covered by evergreen forest. Our findings are based on geochemical data and mineral spectroscopy that probe the crystal chemistry of Fe and Al in mineral phases (mainly kaolinite, Al- and Fe-(hydr)oxides) of tropical soils (laterites). These techniques reveal crystal alterations in mineral populations of different ages and changes of metal speciation associated with mineral or organic phases. These results provide an integrated model of soil formation and changes (from laterites to podzols) in distinct hydrological compartments of the Amazon landscapes and under altered water regimes. (C) 2010 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Short communication: Evaluation of an on-farm test to estimate somatic cell count

The objective of this study was to compare the results of an on-farm test, named Somaticell, with results of electronic cell counting and for milk somatic cell count (SCC) among readers. The Somaticell test correctly determined the SCC in fresh quarter milk samples. Correlation between Somaticell and electronic enumeration of somatic cells was 0.92 and. coefficient 0.82. Using a threshold of 205,000 cells/mL, the sensitivity and specificity for determination of intramammary infections were 91.3 and 96.0%, respectively. The SCC was greater for milk samples from which major mastitis pathogens were recovered. Minor variation among readers was observed and most likely associated with the mixing procedure. However, the final analysis indicated that this variation was not significant and did not affect the amount of samples classified as having subclinical mastitis. The on-farm test evaluated in this study showed adequate capacity of determining SCC on quarter milk samples and may be considered as an alternative for on-farm detection of subclinical mastitis.

Leaf area index estimation with MODIS reflectance time series and model inversion during full rotations of Eucalyptus plantations

The leaf area index (LAI) of fast-growing Eucalyptus plantations is highly dynamic both seasonally and interannually, and is spatially variable depending on pedo-climatic conditions. LAI is very important in determining the carbon and water balance of a stand, but is difficult to measure during a complete stand rotation and at large scales. Remote-sensing methods allowing the retrieval of LAI time series with accuracy and precision are therefore necessary. Here, we tested two methods for LAI estimation from MODIS 250m resolution red and near-infrared (NIR) reflectance time series. The first method involved the inversion of a coupled model of leaf reflectance and transmittance (PROSPECT4), soil reflectance (SOILSPECT) and canopy radiative transfer (4SAIL2). Model parameters other than the LAI were either fixed to measured constant values, or allowed to vary seasonally and/or with stand age according to trends observed in field measurements. The LAI was assumed to vary throughout the rotation following a series of alternately increasing and decreasing sigmoid curves. The parameters of each sigmoid curve that allowed the best fit of simulated canopy reflectance to MODIS red and NIR reflectance data were obtained by minimization techniques. The second method was based on a linear relationship between the LAI and values of the GEneralized Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (GESAVI), which was calibrated using destructive LAI measurements made at two seasons, on Eucalyptus stands of different ages and productivity levels. The ability of each approach to reproduce field-measured LAI values was assessed, and uncertainty on results and parameter sensitivities were examined. Both methods offered a good fit between measured and estimated LAI (R(2) = 0.80 and R(2) = 0.62 for model inversion and GESAVI-based methods, respectively), but the GESAVI-based method overestimated the LAI at young ages. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adapting the CROPGRO perennial forage model to predict growth of Brachiaria brizantha

Warm-season grasses are economically important for cattle production in tropical regions, and tools to aid in management and research of these forages would be highly beneficial. Crop simulation models synthesize numerous physiological processes and are important research tools for evaluating production of warm-season grasses. This research was conducted to adapt the perennial CROPGRO Forage model to simulate growth of the tropical species palisadegrass [Brachiaria brizantha (A. Rich.) Stapf. cv. Xaraes] and to describe model adaptation for this species. In order to develop the CROPGRO parameters for this species, we began with values and relationships reported in the literature. Some parameters and relationships were calibrated by comparison with observed growth, development, dry matter accumulation and partitioning during a 2-year experiment with Xaraes palisadegrass in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. Starting with parameters for the bahiagrass (Paspalum notatum Flugge) perennial forage model, dormancy effects had to be minimized, and partitioning to storage tissue/root decreased, and partitioning to leaf and stem increased to provide for more leaf and stem growth and less root. Parameters affecting specific leaf area (SLA) and senescence of plant tissues were improved. After these changes were made to the model, biomass accumulation was better simulated, mean predicted herbage yield per cycle was 3573 kg ha(-1), with a RMSE of 538 kg DM ha(-1) (D-Stat = 0.838, simulated/observed ratio = 1.028). The results of the adaptation suggest that the CROPGRO model is an efficient tool to integrate physiological aspects of palisadegrass and can be used to simulate growth. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Log-Linear Regression Model for the Beta-Weibull Distribution

We introduce the log-beta Weibull regression model based on the beta Weibull distribution (Famoye et al., 2005; Lee et al., 2007). We derive expansions for the moment generating function which do not depend on complicated functions. The new regression model represents a parametric family of models that includes as sub-models several widely known regression models that can be applied to censored survival data. We employ a frequentist analysis, a jackknife estimator, and a parametric bootstrap for the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influences. Further, for different parameter settings, sample sizes, and censoring percentages, several simulations are performed. In addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals are displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be extended to a modified deviance residual in the proposed regression model applied to censored data. We define martingale and deviance residuals to evaluate the model assumptions. The extended regression model is very useful for the analysis of real data and could give more realistic fits than other special regression models.

A split-pot experiment with sorghum to test a root water uptake partitioning model

Correct modeling of root water uptake partitioning over depth is an important issue in hydrological and crop growth models. Recently a physically based model to describe root water uptake was developed at single root scale and upscaled to the root system scale considering a homogeneous distribution of roots per soil layer. Root water uptake partitioning is calculated over soil layers or compartments as a function of respective soil hydraulic conditions, specifically the soil matric flux potential, root characteristics and a root system efficiency factor to compensate for within-layer root system heterogeneities. The performance of this model was tested in an experiment performed in two-compartment split-pot lysimeters with sorghum plants. The compartments were submitted to different irrigation cycles resulting in contrasting water contents over time. The root system efficiency factor was determined to be about 0.05. Release of water from roots to soil was predicted and observed on several occasions during the experiment; however, model predictions suggested root water release to occur more often and at a higher rate than observed. This may be due to not considering internal root system resistances, thus overestimating the ease with which roots can act as conductors of water. Excluding these erroneous predictions from the dataset, statistical indices show model performance to be of good quality.

Evaluation of the role of environmental factors in the human gastrointestinal tract on the behaviour of probiotic cultures of Lactobacillus casei Shirota and Lactobacillus casei LC01 by the use of a semi-dynamic in vitro model

This study evaluated the influence of gastrointestinal environmental factors (pH, digestive enzymes, food components, medicaments) on the survival of Lactobacillus casei Shirota and Lactobacillus casei LC01, using a semi-dynamic in vitro model that simulates the transit of microorganisms through the human GIT. The strains were first exposed to different simulated gastric juices for different periods of time (0, 30, 60 and 120 min), and then to simulated intestinal fluids for zero, 120, 180 and 240 min, in a step-wise format. The number of viable cells was determined after each step. The influence of food residues (skim milk) in the fluids and resistance to medicaments commonly used for varied therapeutic purposes (analgesics, antiarrhythmics, antibiotics, antihistaminics, proton pump inhibitors, etc.) were also evaluated. Results indicated that survival of both cultures was pH and time dependent, and digestive enzymes had little influence. Milk components presented a protective effect, and medicaments, especially anti-inflammatory drugs, influenced markedly the viability of the probiotic cultures, indicating that the beneficial effects of the two probiotic cultures to health are dependent of environmental factors encountered in the human gastrointestinal tract.