Model for facilities or vendors location in a global scale considering several echelons in the Chain

The facilities location problem for companies with global operations is very complex and not well explored in the literature. This work proposes a MILP model that solves the problem through minimization of the total logistic cost. Main contributions of the model are the pioneer carrying cost calculation, the treatment given to the take-or-pay costs and to the international tax benefits such as drawback and added value taxes in Brazil. The model was successfully applied to a real case of a chemical industry with industrial plants and sales all over the world. The model application recommended a totally new sourcing model for the company.

A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Thermodynamic modelling of an Al(2)O(3)-MnO system using the ionic model

The thermodynamic assessment of an Al(2)O(3)-MnO pseudo-binary system has been carried out with the use of an ionic model. The use of the electro-neutrality principles in addition to the constitutive relations, between site fractions of the species on each sub-lattice, the thermodynamics descriptions of each solid phase has been determined to make possible the solubility description. Based on the thermodynamics descriptions of each phase in addition to thermo-chemical data obtained from the literature, the Gibbs energy functions were optimized for each phase of the Al(2)O(3)-MnO system with the support of PARROT(R) module from ThemoCalc(R) package. A thermodynamic database was obtained, in agreement with the thermo-chemical data extracted from the literature, to describe the Al(2)O(3)-MnO system including the solubility description of solid phases. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Animated solid model of the lung constructed from unsynchronized MR sequential images

This work discusses a 4D lung reconstruction method from unsynchronized MR sequential images. The lung, differently from the heart, does not have its own muscles, turning impossible to see its real movements. The visualization of the lung in motion is an actual topic of research in medicine. CT (Computerized Tomography) can obtain spatio-temporal images of the heart by synchronizing with electrocardiographic waves. The FOV of the heart is small when compared to the lung`s FOV. The lung`s movement is not periodic and is susceptible to variations in the degree of respiration. Compared to CT, MR (Magnetic Resonance) imaging involves longer acquisition times and it is not possible to obtain instantaneous 3D images of the lung. For each slice, only one temporal sequence of 2D images can be obtained. However, methods using MR are preferable because they do not involve radiation. In this paper, based on unsynchronized MR images of the lung an animated B-Repsolid model of the lung is created. The 3D animation represents the lung`s motion associated to one selected sequence of MR images. The proposed method can be divided in two parts. First, the lung`s silhouettes moving in time are extracted by detecting the presence of a respiratory pattern on 2D spatio-temporal MR images. This approach enables us to determine the lung`s silhouette for every frame, even on frames with obscure edges. The sequence of extracted lung`s silhouettes are unsynchronized sagittal and coronal silhouettes. Using our algorithm it is possible to reconstruct a 3D lung starting from a silhouette of any type (coronal or sagittal) selected from any instant in time. A wire-frame model of the lung is created by composing coronal and sagittal planar silhouettes representing cross-sections. The silhouette composition is severely underconstrained. Many wire-frame models can be created from the observed sequences of silhouettes in time. Finally, a B-Rep solid model is created using a meshing algorithm. Using the B-Rep solid model the volume in time for the right and left lungs were calculated. It was possible to recognize several characteristics of the 3D real right and left lungs in the shaded model. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A modified epidemiological model for computer viruses

Since the computer viruses pose a serious problem to individual and corporative computer systems, a lot of effort has been dedicated to study how to avoid their deleterious actions, trying to create anti-virus programs acting as vaccines in personal computers or in strategic network nodes. Another way to combat viruses propagation is to establish preventive policies based on the whole operation of a system that can be modeled with population models, similar to those that are used in epidemiological studies. Here, a modified version of the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is presented and how its parameters are related to network characteristics is explained. Then, disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are calculated, stability and bifurcation conditions are derived and some numerical simulations are shown. The relations among the model parameters in the several bifurcation conditions allow a network design minimizing viruses risks. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Closed-loop model re-identification of processes under MPC with zone control

This work deals with a procedure for model re-identification of a process in closed loop with ail already existing commercial MPC. The controller considered here has a two-layer structure where the upper layer performs a target calculation based on a simplified steady-state optimization of the process. Here, it is proposed a methodology where a test signal is introduced in a tuning parameter of the target calculation layer. When the outputs are controlled by zones instead of at fixed set points, the approach allows the continuous operation of the process without an excessive disruption of the operating objectives as process constraints and product specifications remain satisfied during the identification test. The application of the method is illustrated through the simulation of two processes of the oil refining industry. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A log-extended Weibull regression model

A bathtub-shaped failure rate function is very useful in survival analysis and reliability studies. The well-known lifetime distributions do not have this property. For the first time, we propose a location-scale regression model based on the logarithm of an extended Weibull distribution which has the ability to deal with bathtub-shaped failure rate functions. We use the method of maximum likelihood to estimate the model parameters and some inferential procedures are presented. We reanalyze a real data set under the new model and the log-modified Weibull regression model. We perform a model check based on martingale-type residuals and generated envelopes and the statistics AIC and BIC to select appropriate models. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The generalized log-gamma mixture model with covariates: local influence and residual analysis

In a sample of censored survival times, the presence of an immune proportion of individuals who are not subject to death, failure or relapse, may be indicated by a relatively high number of individuals with large censored survival times. In this paper the generalized log-gamma model is modified for the possibility that long-term survivors may be present in the data. The model attempts to separately estimate the effects of covariates on the surviving fraction, that is, the proportion of the population for which the event never occurs. The logistic function is used for the regression model of the surviving fraction. Inference for the model parameters is considered via maximum likelihood. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and total local influence of an individual are derived, analyzed and discussed. Finally, a data set from the medical area is analyzed under the log-gamma generalized mixture model. A residual analysis is performed in order to select an appropriate model.

Double generalized linear model for tissue culture proportion data: a Bayesian perspective

Joint generalized linear models and double generalized linear models (DGLMs) were designed to model outcomes for which the variability can be explained using factors and/or covariates. When such factors operate, the usual normal regression models, which inherently exhibit constant variance, will under-represent variation in the data and hence may lead to erroneous inferences. For count and proportion data, such noise factors can generate a so-called overdispersion effect, and the use of binomial and Poisson models underestimates the variability and, consequently, incorrectly indicate significant effects. In this manuscript, we propose a DGLM from a Bayesian perspective, focusing on the case of proportion data, where the overdispersion can be modeled using a random effect that depends on some noise factors. The posterior joint density function was sampled using Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms, allowing inferences over the model parameters. An application to a data set on apple tissue culture is presented, for which it is shown that the Bayesian approach is quite feasible, even when limited prior information is available, thereby generating valuable insight for the researcher about its experimental results.

Private valuation of carbon sequestration in forest plantations

Approval of the Clean Development Mechanism, provided for in the Kyoto Protocol, enables countries with afforested land to trade in carbon emissions reduction certificates related to carbon dioxide equivalent quantities (CO(2-e)) stored within a certain forest area. Potential CO(2-e) above base line sequestration was determined for two forest sites on commercial eucalyptus plantations in northern Brazil (Bahia). Compensation values for silvicultural regimes involving rotation lengths greater than economically optimal were computed using the Faustmann formula. Mean values obtained were US$8.16 (MgCO(2-e))(-1) and US $7.19 (MgCO(2-e))(-1) for average and high site indexes, respectively. Results show that carbon supply is more cost-efficient in highly productive sites. Annuities of US$18.8 Mg C(-1) and US$35.1 Mg C(-1) and yearly payments of US$4.4 m(-3) and US$8.2 m(-3) due for each marginal cubic meter produced were computed for high and average sites, respectively. The estimated value of the tonne of carbon defines minimum values to be paid to forest owners, in order to induce a change in silvicultural management regimes. A reduction of carbon supply could be expected as a result of an increase in wood prices, although it would not respond in a regular manner. For both sites, price elasticity of supply was found to be inelastic and increased as rotation length moved further away from economically optimal: 0.24 and 0.27 for age 11 years in average- and high-productivity sites, respectively. This would be due to biomass production potential as a limiting factor; beyond a certain threshold value. an increase in price does not sustain a proportional change in carbon storage supply. The environmental service valuation model proposed might be adequate for assessing potential supply in plantation forestry, from a private landowner perspective, with an economic opportunity cost. The model is not applicable to low commercial value forest plantations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Model for comparing reduced impact logging with conventional logging for an Eastern Amazonian Forest

Using data from a logging experiment in the eastern Brazilian Amazon region, we develop a matrix growth and yield model that captures the dynamic effects of harvest system choice on forest structure and composition. Multinomial logistic regression is used to estimate the growth transition parameters for a 10-year time step, while a Poisson regression model is used to estimate recruitment parameters. The model is designed to be easily integrated with an economic model of decisionmaking to perform tropical forest policy analysis. The model is used to compare the long-run structure and composition of a stand arising from the choice of implementing either conventional logging techniques or more carefully planned and executed reduced-impact logging (RIL) techniques, contrasted against a baseline projection of an unlogged forest. Results from log and leave scenarios show that a stand logged according to Brazilian management requirements will require well over 120 years to recover its initial commercial volume, regardless of logging technique employed. Implementing RIL, however, accelerates this recovery. Scenarios imposing a 40-year cutting cycle raise the possibility of sustainable harvest volumes, although at significantly lower levels than is implied by current regulations. Meeting current Brazilian forest policy goals may require an increase in the planned total area of permanent production forest or the widespread adoption of silvicultural practices that increase stand recovery and volume accumulation rates after RIL harvests. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Validation of a root water uptake model to estimate transpiration constraints

Experimental results obtained from a greenhouse trial with common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L) plants performed to test model hypotheses regarding the onset of limiting hydraulic conditions and the shape of the transpiration reduction curve in the falling rate phase are presented. According to these hypotheses based on simulations with an upscaled single-root model, the matric flux potential at the onset of limiting hydraulic conditions is as a function of root length density and potential transpiration rate, while the relative transpiration in the falling rate phase equals the relative matric flux potential. Transpiration of bean plants in water stressed pots with four different soils was determined daily by weighing and compared to values obtained from non-stressed pots. This procedure allowed determining the onset of the falling rate phase and corresponding soil hydraulic conditions. At the onset of the falling rate phase, the value of matric flux potential M(I) showed to differ in order of magnitude from the model predicted value for three out of four soils. This difference between model and experiment can be explained by the heterogeneity of the root distribution which is not considered by the model. An empirical factor to deal with this heterogeneity should be included in the model to improve predictions. Comparing the predictions of relative transpiration in the falling rate phase using a linear shape with water content, pressure head or matric flux potential, the matric flux potential based reduction function, in agreement with the hypothesis, showed the best performance, while the pressure head based equation resulted in the highest deviations between observed and predicted values of relative transpiration rates. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium dose effect in the graft box of lemon tree (of the family Rutaceae) nutrition and production.

Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium dose effect in the graft box of lemon tree (of the family Rutaceae) nutrition and production. The aim of the study was to evaluate the graft box of lemon tree (of the family Rutaceae) nutritional state and its components of growth in function of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium dose by fertilization. The experimental outlining was entirely made casually in factorial scheme 3(3) + 1, being 3 factors (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium - NPK), 3 doses and in evidence (without fertilization), with 3 repetitions. The experimental milt was constituted by two tubes of 2,8 cm diameter and 12,3 cm high with a graft box (Hipobioto) of lemon tree (of the family Rutaceae) in each tube. The doses used were constituted by doses of N (460; 920 e 18,10 mg dm(-3)), P (50; 100 e 200 mg dm(-3)) and K (395; 790 e 1580 mg dm(-3)). The fertilization with N and K was carried out by fertirrigations and the P added to the substract of Pinus rind and vermiculite before the seeding. when the plants were 133 days after the germination they were subdivided in radicular system and air part for the determinations of the dry matter mass, height, foliar area, stem diameter and contents of nutrients. The N, K and P doses of 920 mg dm(-3), 790 mg dm(-3), 100 mg dm(-3), respectively, were enough for the suitable development of the graft box of lemon tree (of the family Rutaceae) in tubes.

Seed development, yield and quality of two palm species growing in different tropical forest types in SE Brazil: implications for ecological restoration

Natural forest remnants have been set as seed production fields to supply seeds of native tree species for tropical forest restoration, but the effect of different forest types on seed production has not been accessed to date for palm species. In this work, we studied seed development, yield, and quality of two palm species in different tropical forest types in SE Brazil. Seed production of palmiteiro (Euterpe edulis) and queen-palm (Syagrus romanzoffiana), which are largely used in restoration efforts due to their importance for vertebrate frugivores, were studied in natural remnants of Atlantic Rainforest, Restinga Forest, Seasonally Dry Forest, and Cerrado Forest. We studied seed development, yield, size, and germination of seed lots produced in some of these forest types, including seeds harvested in 2008, 2009, and both years. Seed yield and quality, as well as seed dry mass in 2009, were higher for palmiteiro seeds produced in the Atlantic Rainforest, while queen-palm seeds produced at the Restinga Forest showed the higher mass and yield, but the lowest physiological potential. Consequently, these natural differences of seed yield and quality have to be taken into account for establishing standards for seed commercialization and analysis, seed pricing, and seedling production in forest nurseries.

Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics in Oxisols of Ibiruba (Brazil) with the Century Model

introduction of conservation practices in degraded agricultural land will generally recuperate soil quality, especially by increasing soil organic matter. This aspect of soil organic C (SOC) dynamics under distinct cropping and management systems can be conveniently analyzed with ecosystem models such as the Century Model. In this study, Century was used to simulate SOC stocks in farm fields of the Ibiruba region of north central Rio Grande do Sul state in Southern Brazil. The region, where soils are predominantly Oxisols, was originally covered with subtropical woodlands and grasslands. SOC dynamics was simulated with a general scenario developed with historical data on soil management and cropping systems beginning with the onset of agriculture in 1900. From 1993 to 2050, two contrasting scenarios based on no-tillage soil management were established: the status quo scenario, with crops and agricultural inputs as currently practiced in the region and the high biomass scenario with increased frequency of corn in the cropping system, resulting in about 80% higher biomass addition to soils. Century simulations were in close agreement with SOC stocks measured in 2005 in the Oxisols with finer texture surface horizon originally under woodlands. However, simulations in the Oxisols with loamy surface horizon under woodlands and in the grassland soils were not as accurate. SOC stock decreased from 44% to 50% in fields originally under woodland and from 20% to 27% in fields under grasslands with the introduction of intensive annual grain crops with intensive tillage and harrowing operations. The adoption of conservation practices in the 1980s led to a stabilization of SOC stocks followed by a partial recovery of native stocks. Simulations to 2050 indicate that maintaining status quo would allow SOC stocks to recover from 81% to 86% of the native stocks under woodland and from 80% to 91 % of the native stocks under grasslands. Adoption of a high biomass scenario would result in stocks from 75% to 95% of the original stocks under woodlands and from 89% to 102% in the grasslands by 2050. These simulations outcomes underline the importance of cropping system yielding higher biomass to further increase SOC content in these Oxisols. This application of the Century Model could reproduce general trends of SOC loss and recovery in the Oxisols of the Ibiruba region. Additional calibration and validation should be conducted before extensive usage of Century as a support tool for soil carbon sequestration projects in this and other regions can be recommended. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.