235 resultados para Model Output Statistics
Resumo:
Currently there is a trend for the expansion of the area cropped with sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.), driven by an increase in the world demand for biofuels, due to economical, environmental, and geopolitical issues. Although sugarcane is traditionally harvested by burning dried leaves and tops, the unburned, mechanized harvest has been progressively adopted. The use of process based models is useful in understanding the effects of plant litter in soil C dynamics. The objective of this work was to use the CENTURY model in evaluating the effect of sugarcane residue management in the temporal dynamics of soil C. The approach taken in this work was to parameterize the CENTURY model for the sugarcane crop, to simulate the temporal dynamics of soil C, validating the model through field experiment data, and finally to make predictions in the long term regarding soil C. The main focus of this work was the comparison of soil C stocks between the burned and unburned litter management systems, but the effect of mineral fertilizer and organic residue applications were also evaluated. The simulations were performed with data from experiments with different durations, from 1 to 60 yr, in Goiana and Timbauba, Pernambuco, and Pradopolis, Sao Paulo, all in Brazil; and Mount Edgecombe, Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa. It was possible to simulate the temporal dynamics of soil C (R(2) = 0.89). The predictions made with the model revealed that there is, in the long term, a trend for higher soil C stocks with the unburned management. This increase is conditioned by factors such as climate, soil texture, time of adoption of the unburned system, and N fertilizer management.
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The search for more realistic modeling of financial time series reveals several stylized facts of real markets. In this work we focus on the multifractal properties found in price and index signals. Although the usual minority game (MG) models do not exhibit multifractality, we study here one of its variants that does. We show that the nonsynchronous MG models in the nonergodic phase is multifractal and in this sense, together with other stylized facts, constitute a better modeling tool. Using the structure function (SF) approach we detected the stationary and the scaling range of the time series generated by the MG model and, from the linear (non-linear) behavior of the SF we identified the fractal (multifractal) regimes. Finally, using the wavelet transform modulus maxima (WTMM) technique we obtained its multifractal spectrum width for different dynamical regimes. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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We study the dynamics of the adoption of new products by agents with continuous opinions and discrete actions (CODA). The model is such that the refusal in adopting a new idea or product is increasingly weighted by neighbor agents as evidence against the product. Under these rules, we study the distribution of adoption times and the final proportion of adopters in the population. We compare the cases where initial adopters are clustered to the case where they are randomly scattered around the social network and investigate small world effects on the final proportion of adopters. The model predicts a fat tailed distribution for late adopters which is verified by empirical data. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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The Random Parameter model was proposed to explain the structure of the covariance matrix in problems where most, but not all, of the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix can be explained by Random Matrix Theory. In this article, we explore the scaling properties of the model, as observed in the multifractal structure of the simulated time series. We use the Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima technique to obtain the multifractal spectrum dependence with the parameters of the model. The model shows a scaling structure compatible with the stylized facts for a reasonable choice of the parameter values. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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In this work we study an agent based model to investigate the role of asymmetric information degrees for market evolution. This model is quite simple and may be treated analytically since the consumers evaluate the quality of a certain good taking into account only the quality of the last good purchased plus her perceptive capacity beta. As a consequence, the system evolves according to a stationary Markov chain. The value of a good offered by the firms increases along with quality according to an exponent alpha, which is a measure of the technology. It incorporates all the technological capacity of the production systems such as education, scientific development and techniques that change the productivity rates. The technological level plays an important role to explain how the asymmetry of information may affect the market evolution in this model. We observe that, for high technological levels, the market can detect adverse selection. The model allows us to compute the maximum asymmetric information degree before the market collapses. Below this critical point the market evolves during a limited period of time and then dies out completely. When beta is closer to 1 (symmetric information), the market becomes more profitable for high quality goods, although high and low quality markets coexist. The maximum asymmetric information level is a consequence of an ergodicity breakdown in the process of quality evaluation. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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The Brazilian Atlantic Forest is one of the richest biodiversity hotspots of the world. Paleoclimatic models have predicted two large stability regions in its northern and central parts, whereas southern regions might have suffered strong instability during Pleistocene glaciations. Molecular phylogeographic and endemism studies show, nevertheless, contradictory results: although some results validate these predictions, other data suggest that paleoclimatic models fail to predict stable rainforest areas in the south. Most studies, however, have surveyed species with relatively high dispersal rates whereas taxa with lower dispersion capabilities should be better predictors of habitat stability. Here, we have used two land planarian species as model organisms to analyse the patterns and levels of nucleotide diversity on a locality within the Southern Atlantic Forest. We find that both species harbour high levels of genetic variability without exhibiting the molecular footprint of recent colonization or population expansions, suggesting a long-term stability scenario. The results reflect, therefore, that paleoclimatic models may fail to detect refugia in the Southern Atlantic Forest, and that model organisms with low dispersal capability can improve the resolution of these models.
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In this paper, we study the effects of introducing contrarians in a model of Opinion Dynamics where the agents have internal continuous opinions, but exchange information only about a binary choice that is a function of their continuous opinion, the CODA model. We observe that the hung election scenario that arises when contrarians are introduced in discrete opinion models still happens. However, it is weaker and it should not be expected in every election. Finally, we also show that the introduction of contrarians make the tendency towards extremism of the original model weaker, indicating that the existence of agents that prefer to disagree might be an important aspect and help society to diminish extremist opinions.
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The role of exercise training (ET) on cardiac renin-angiotensin system (RAS) was investigated in 3-5 month-old mice lacking alpha(2A-) and alpha(2C-)adrenoceptors (alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO) that present heart failure (HF) and wild type control (WT). ET consisted of 8-week running sessions of 60 min, 5 days/week. In addition, exercise tolerance, cardiac structural and function analysis were made. At 3 months, fractional shortening and exercise tolerance were similar between groups. At 5 months, alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mice displayed ventricular dysfunction and fibrosis associated with increased cardiac angiotensin (Ang) II levels (2.9-fold) and increased local angiotensin-converting enzyme activity (ACE 18%). ET decreased alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO cardiac Ang II levels and ACE activity to age-matched untrained WT mice levels while increased ACE2 expression and prevented exercise intolerance and ventricular dysfunction with little impact on cardiac remodeling. Altogether, these data provide evidence that reduced cardiac RAS explains, at least in part, the beneficial effects of ET on cardiac function in a genetic model of HF.
Resumo:
beta-blockers, as class, improve cardiac function and survival in heart failure (HF). However, the molecular mechanisms underlying these beneficial effects remain elusive. In the present study, metoprolol and carvedilol were used in doses that display comparable heart rate reduction to assess their beneficial effects in a genetic model of sympathetic hyperactivity-induced HF (alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)-ARKO mice). Five month-old HF mice were randomly assigned to receive either saline, metoprolol or carvedilol for 8 weeks and age-matched wild-type mice (WT) were used as controls. HF mice displayed baseline tachycardia, systolic dysfunction evaluated by echocardiography, 50% mortality rate, increased cardiac myocyte width (50%) and ventricular fibrosis (3-fold) compared with WT. All these responses were significantly improved by both treatments. Cardiomyocytes from HF mice showed reduced peak [Ca(2+)](i) transient (13%) using confocal microscopy imaging. Interestingly, while metoprolol improved [Ca(2+)](i) transient, carvedilol had no effect on peak [Ca(2+)](i) transient but also increased [Ca(2+)] transient decay dynamics. We then examined the influence of carvedilol in cardiac oxidative stress as an alternative target to explain its beneficial effects. Indeed, HF mice showed 10-fold decrease in cardiac reduced/oxidized glutathione ratio compared with WT, which was significantly improved only by carvedilol treatment. Taken together, we provide direct evidence that the beneficial effects of metoprolol were mainly associated with improved cardiac Ca(2+) transients and the net balance of cardiac Ca(2+) handling proteins while carvedilol preferentially improved cardiac redox state. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Sympathetic hyperactivity (SH) and renin angiotensin system (RAS) activation are commonly associated with heart failure (HF), even though the relative contribution of these factors to the cardiac derangement is less understood. The role of SH on RAS components and its consequences for the HF were investigated in mice lacking alpha(2A) and alpha(2C) adrenoceptor knockout (alpha(2A)/alpha(2C) ARKO) that present SH with evidence of HF by 7 mo of age. Cardiac and systemic RAS components and plasma norepinephrine (PN) levels were evaluated in male adult mice at 3 and 7 mo of age. In addition, cardiac morphometric analysis, collagen content, exercise tolerance, and hemodynamic assessments were made. At 3 mo, alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mice showed no signs of HF, while displaying elevated PN, activation of local and systemic RAS components, and increased cardiomyocyte width (16%) compared with wild-type mice (WT). In contrast, at 7 mo, alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mice presented clear signs of HF accompanied only by cardiac activation of angiotensinogen and ANG II levels and increased collagen content (twofold). Consistent with this local activation of RAS, 8 wk of ANG II AT(1) receptor blocker treatment restored cardiac structure and function comparable to the WT. Collectively, these data provide direct evidence that cardiac RAS activation plays a major role underlying the structural and functional abnormalities associated with a genetic SH-induced HF in mice.
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This study determined which peripheral variables would better predict the rating of perceived exertion (RPE) and time to exhaustion (TE) during exercise at different intensities. Ten men performed exercises at first lactate threshold (LT1), second lactate threshold (LT2), 50% of the distance from LT1 to LT2 (TT(50%)), and 25% of the distance from LT2 to maximal power output (TW(25%)). Lactate, catecholamines, potassium, pH, glucose, (V) over dotO(2), VE, HR, respiratory rate (RR) and RPE were measured and plotted against the exercise duration for the slope calculation. Glucose, dopamine, and noradrenaline predicted RPE in TT(50%) (88%), LT2 (64%), and TW(25%) (77%), but no variable predicted RPE in LT1. RPE (55%), RPE+HR (86%), and RPE+RR (92% and 55%) predicted TE in LT1, TT(50%), LT2, and TW(25%), respectively. At intensities from TT(50%) to TW(25%), variables associated with brain activity seem to explain most of the RPE slope, and RPE (+HR and+RR) seems to predict the TE.
Resumo:
Samogin Lopes, FA, Menegon, EM, Franchini, E, Tricoli, V, and de M. Bertuzzi, RC. Is acute static stretching able to reduce the time to exhaustion at power output corresponding to maximal oxygen uptake? J Strength Cond Res 24(6): 1650-1656, 2010-This study analyzed the effect of an acute static stretching bout on the time to exhaustion (T(lim)) at power output corresponding to (V) over dotO(2)max. Eleven physically active male subjects (age 22.3 +/- 2.8 years, (V) over dotO(2)max 2.7 +/- 0.5 L . min(-1)) completed an incremental cycle ergometer test, 2 muscle strength tests, and 2 maximal tests to exhaustion at power output corresponding to (V) over dotO(2)max with and without a previous static stretching bout. The T(lim) was not significantly affected by the static stretching (164 +/- 28 vs. 150 +/- 26 seconds with and without stretching, respectively, p = 0.09), but the time to reach (V) over dotO(2)max (118 +/- 22 vs. 102 +/- 25 seconds), blood-lactate accumulation immediately after exercise (10.7 +/- 2.9 vs. 8.0 +/- 1.7 mmol . L(-1)), and oxygen deficit (2.4 +/- 0.9 vs. 2.1 +/- 0.7 L) were significantly reduced (p <= 0.02). Thus, an acute static stretching bout did not reduce T(lim) at power output corresponding to (V) over dotO(2)max possibly by accelerating aerobic metabolism activation at the beginning of exercise. These results suggest that coaches and practitioners involved with aerobic dependent activities may use static stretching as part of their warm-up routines without fear of diminishing high-intensity aerobic exercise performance.
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The aim of this study was to examine the effects of low carbohydrate (CHO) availability on heart rate variability (HRV) responses during moderate and severe exercise intensities until exhaustion. Six healthy males (age, 26.5 +/- 6.7 years; body mass, 78.4 +/- 7.7 kg; body fat %, 11.3 +/- 4.5%; (V) over dotO(2max), 39.5 +/- 6.6 mL kg(-1) min(-1)) volunteered for this study. All tests were performed in the morning, after 8-12 h overnight fasting, at a moderate intensity corresponding to 50% of the difference between the first (LT(1)) and second (LT(2)) lactate breakpoints and at a severe intensity corresponding to 25% of the difference between the maximal power output and LT(2). Forty-eight hours before each experimental session, the subjects performed a 90-min cycling exercise followed by 5-min rest periods and subsequent 1-min cycling bouts at 125% (V) over dotO(2max) (with 1-min rest periods) until exhaustion, in order to deplete muscle glycogen. A diet providing 10% (CHO(low)) or 65% (CHO(control)) of energy as carbohydrates was consumed for the following 2 days until the experimental test. The Poicare plots (standard deviations 1 and 2: SD1 and SD2, respectively) and spectral autoregressive model (low frequency LF, and high frequency HF) were applied to obtain HRV parameters. The CHO availability had no effect on the HRV parameters or ventilation during moderate-intensity exercise. However, the SD1 and SD2 parameters were significantly higher in CHO(low) than in CHO(control), as taken at exhaustion during the severe-intensity exercise (P < 0.05). The HF and LF frequencies (ms(2)) were also significantly higher in CHO(low) than in CHO(control) (P < 0.05). In addition, ventilation measured at the 5 and 10-min was higher in CHO(low) (62.5 +/- 4.4 and 74.8 +/- 6.5 L min(-1), respectively, P < 0.05) than in CHO(control) (70.0 +/- 3.6 and 79.6 +/- 5.1 L min(-1), respectively; P < 0.05) during the severe-intensity exercise. These results suggest that the CHO availability alters the HRV parameters during severe-, but not moderate-, intensity exercise, and this was associated with an increase in ventilation volume.
Resumo:
ARTIOLI, G. G., B. GUALANO, E. FRANCHINI, F. B. SCAGLIUSI, M. TAKESIAN, M. FUCHS, and A. H. LANCHA. Prevalence, Magnitude, and Methods of Rapid Weight Loss among Judo Competitors. Med. Sci. Sports Exerc., Vol. 42, No. 3, pp. 436-442, 2010. Purpose: To identify the prevalence, magnitude, and methods of rapid weight loss among judo competitors. Methods: Athletes (607 males and 215 females; age = 19.3 +/- 5.3 yr, weight = 70 +/- 7.5 kg, height = 170.6 +/- 9.8 cm) completed a previously validated questionnaire developed to evaluate rapid weight loss in judo athletes, which provides a score. The higher the score obtained, the more aggressive the weight loss behaviors. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and frequency analyses. Mean scores obtained in the questionnaire were used to compare specific groups of athletes using, when appropriate, Mann-Whitney U-test or general linear model one-way ANOVA followed by Tamhane post hoc test. Results: Eighty-six percent of athletes reported that have already lost weight to compete. When heavyweights are excluded, this percentage rises to 89%. Most athletes reported reductions of up to 5% of body weight (mean +/- SD: 2.5 +/- 2.3%). The most weight ever lost was 2%-5%, whereas a great part of athletes reported reductions of 5%-10% (mean +/- SD: 6 +/- 4%). The number of reductions underwent in a season was 3 +/- 5. The reductions usually occurred within 7 +/- 7 d. Athletes began cutting weight at 12.6 +/- 6.1 yr. No significant differences were found in the score obtained by male versus female athletes as well as by athletes from different weight classes. Elite athletes scored significantly higher in the questionnaire than nonelite. Athletes who began cutting weight earlier also scored higher than those who began later. Conclusions: Rapid weight loss is highly prevalent in judo competitors. The level of aggressiveness in weight management behaviors seems to not be influenced by the gender or by the weight class, but it seems to be influenced by competitive level and by the age at which athletes began cutting weight.
Resumo:
The aim of this study was to test if the critical power model can be used to determine the critical rest interval (CRI) between vertical jumps. Ten males performed intermittent countermovement jumps on a force platform with different resting periods (4.1 +/- 0.3 s, 5.0 +/- 0.4 s, 5.9 +/- 0.6 s). Jump trials were interrupted when participants could no longer maintain 95% of their maximal jump height. After interruption, number of jumps, total exercise duration and total external work were computed. Time to exhaustion (s) and total external work (J) were used to solve the equation Work = a + b . time. The CRI (corresponding to the shortest resting interval that allowed jump height to be maintained for a long time without fatigue) was determined dividing the average external work needed to jump at a fixed height (J) by b parameter (J/s). in the final session, participants jumped at their calculated CRI. A high coefficient of determination (0.995 +/- 0.007) and the CRI (7.5 +/- 1.6 s) were obtained. In addition, the longer the resting period, the greater the number of jumps (44 13, 71 28, 105 30, 169 53 jumps; p<0.0001), time to exhaustion (179 +/- 50, 351 +/- 120, 610 +/- 141, 1,282 +/- 417 s; p<0.0001) and total external work (28.0 +/- 8.3, 45.0 +/- 16.6, 67.6 +/- 17.8, 111.9 +/- 34.6 kJ; p<0.0001). Therefore, the critical power model may be an alternative approach to determine the CRI during intermittent vertical jumps.