A Bayesian model for estimating the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up

It is known that patients may cease participating in a longitudinal study and become lost to follow-up. The objective of this article is to present a Bayesian model to estimate the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up. We consider a homogeneous population, and it is assumed that the considered period of time is small enough to avoid two or more transitions from one state of health to another. The proposed model is based on a Gibbs sampling algorithm that uses information of lost to follow-up at the end of the longitudinal study. To simulate the unknown number of individuals with positive and negative states of malaria at the end of the study and lost to follow-up, two latent variables were introduced in the model. We used a real data set and a simulated data to illustrate the application of the methodology. The proposed model showed a good fit to these data sets, and the algorithm did not show problems of convergence or lack of identifiability. We conclude that the proposed model is a good alternative to estimate probabilities of transitions from one state of health to the other in studies with low adherence to follow-up.

Efficient solutions to factored MDPs with imprecise transition probabilities

When modeling real-world decision-theoretic planning problems in the Markov Decision Process (MDP) framework, it is often impossible to obtain a completely accurate estimate of transition probabilities. For example, natural uncertainty arises in the transition specification due to elicitation of MOP transition models from an expert or estimation from data, or non-stationary transition distributions arising from insufficient state knowledge. In the interest of obtaining the most robust policy under transition uncertainty, the Markov Decision Process with Imprecise Transition Probabilities (MDP-IPs) has been introduced to model such scenarios. Unfortunately, while various solution algorithms exist for MDP-IPs, they often require external calls to optimization routines and thus can be extremely time-consuming in practice. To address this deficiency, we introduce the factored MDP-IP and propose efficient dynamic programming methods to exploit its structure. Noting that the key computational bottleneck in the solution of factored MDP-IPs is the need to repeatedly solve nonlinear constrained optimization problems, we show how to target approximation techniques to drastically reduce the computational overhead of the nonlinear solver while producing bounded, approximately optimal solutions. Our results show up to two orders of magnitude speedup in comparison to traditional ""flat"" dynamic programming approaches and up to an order of magnitude speedup over the extension of factored MDP approximate value iteration techniques to MDP-IPs while producing the lowest error of any approximation algorithm evaluated. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Excited Electronic States, Transition Probabilities, and Radiative Lifetimes of CAs: A Theoretical Contribution and Challenge to Experimentalists

High-level CASSCF/MRCI calculations with a quintuple-zeta quality basis set are reported by characterizing for the first time a manifold of electronic states of the CAs radical yet to be investigated experimentally. Along with the potential energy curves and the associated spectroscopic constants, the dipole moment functions for selected electronic states as well as the transition dipole moment functions for the most relevant electronic transitions are also presented. Estimates of radiative transition probabilities and lifetimes complement this investigation, which also assesses the effect of spin-orbit interaction on the A (2)Pi state. Whenever pertinent, comparisons of similarities and differences with the isovalent CN and CP radicals are made.

Stochastic simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation activity

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability. This study investigated the following questions. Do inter-annual-to-decadal variations in tropical sea surface temperature (SST) lead to substantial changes in MJO activity? Was there a change in the MJO in the 1970s? Can this change be associated to SST anomalies? What was the level of MJO activity in the pre-reanalysis era? These questions were investigated with a stochastic model of the MJO. Reanalysis data (1948-2008) were used to develop a nine-state first order Markov model capable to simulate the non-stationarity of the MJO. The model is driven by observed SST anomalies and a large ensemble of simulations was performed to infer the activity of the MJO in the instrumental period (1880-2008). The model is capable to reproduce the activity of the MJO during the reanalysis period. The simulations indicate that the MJO exhibited a regime of near normal activity in 1948-1972 (3.4 events year(-1)) and two regimes of high activity in 1973-1989 (3.9 events) and 1990-2008 (4.6 events). Stochastic simulations indicate decadal shifts with near normal levels in 1880-1895 (3.4 events), low activity in 1896 1917 (2.6 events) and a return to near normal levels during 1918-1947 (3.3 events). The results also point out to significant decadal changes in probabilities of very active years (5 or more MJO events): 0.214 (1880-1895), 0.076 (1896-1917), 0.197 (1918-1947) and 0.193 (1948-1972). After a change in behavior in the 1970s, this probability has increased to 0.329 (1973-1989) and 0.510 (1990-2008). The observational and stochastic simulations presented here call attention to the need to further understand the variability of the MJO on a wide range of time scales.

Diagnostic tool to analyse colour-magnitude diagrams of poorly populated stellar concentrations

The dynamical processes that lead to open cluster disruption cause its mass to decrease. To investigate such processes from the observational point of view, it is important to identify open cluster remnants (OCRs), which are intrinsically poorly populated. Due to their nature, distinguishing them from field star fluctuations is still an unresolved issue. In this work, we developed a statistical diagnostic tool to distinguish poorly populated star concentrations from background field fluctuations. We use 2MASS photometry to explore one of the conditions required for a stellar group to be a physical group: to produce distinct sequences in a colour-magnitude diagram (CMD). We use automated tools to (i) derive the limiting radius; (ii) decontaminate the field and assign membership probabilities; (iii) fit isochrones; and (iv) compare object and field CMDs, considering the isochrone solution, in order to verify the similarity. If the object cannot be statistically considered as a field fluctuation, we derive its probable age, distance modulus, reddening and uncertainties in a self-consistent way. As a test, we apply the tool to open clusters and comparison fields. Finally, we study the OCR candidates DoDz 6, NGC 272, ESO 435 SC48 and ESO 325 SC15. The tool is optimized to treat these low-statistic objects and to separate the best OCR candidates for studies on kinematics and chemical composition. The study of the possible OCRs will certainly provide a deep understanding of OCR properties and constraints for theoretical models, including insights into the evolution of open clusters and dissolution rates.

Using gap-crossing capacity to evaluate functional connectivity of two Atlantic rainforest birds and their response to fragmentation

One of the main consequences of habitat loss and fragmentation is the increase in patch isolation and the consequent decrease in landscape connectivity. In this context, species persistence depends on their responses to this new landscape configuration, particularly on their capacity to move through the interhabitat matrix. Here, we aimed first to determine gap-crossing probabilities related to different gap widths for two forest birds (Thamnophilus caerulescens, Thamnophilidae, and Basileuterus culicivorus, Parulidae) from the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest. These values were defined with a playback technique and then used in analyses based on graph theory to determine functional connections among forest patches. Both species were capable of crossing forest gaps between patches, and these movements were related to gap width. The probability of crossing 40 m gaps was 50% for both species. This probability falls to 10% when the gaps are 60 m (for B. culicivorus) or 80 m (for T caerulescens). Actually, birds responded to stimulation about two times more distant inside forest trials (control) than in gap-crossing trials. Models that included gap-crossing capacity improved the explanatory power of species abundance variation in comparison to strictly structural models based merely on patch area and distance measurements. These results highlighted that even very simple functional connectivity measurements related to gap-crossing capacity can improve the understanding of the effect of habitat fragmentation on bird occurrence and abundance.

Oriented Percolation in One-dimensional 1/vertical bar x-y vertical bar(2) Percolation Models

We consider independent edge percolation models on Z, with edge occupation probabilities. We prove that oriented percolation occurs when beta > 1 provided p is chosen sufficiently close to 1, answering a question posed in Newman and Schulman (Commun. Math. Phys. 104: 547, 1986). The proof is based on multi-scale analysis.

An asymmetric sandpile model with height restriction

We analyze by numerical simulations and mean-field approximations an asymmetric version of the stochastic sandpile model with height restriction in one dimension. Each site can have at most two particles. Single particles are inactive and do not move. Two particles occupying the same site are active and may hop to neighboring sites following an asymmetric rule. Jumps to the right or to the left occur with distinct probabilities. In the active state, there will be a net current of particles to the right or to the left. We have found that the critical behavior related to the transition from the active to the absorbing state is distinct from the symmetrical case, making the asymmetry a relevant field.

Emergence and loss of assortative mating in sympatric speciation

We have studied an agent model which presents the emergence of sexual barriers through the onset of assortative mating, a condition that might lead to sympatric speciation. In the model, individuals are characterized by two traits, each determined by a single locus A or B. Heterozygotes on A are penalized by introducing an adaptive difference from homozygotes. Two niches are available. Each A homozygote is adapted to one of the niches. The second trait, called the marker trait has no bearing on the fitness. The model includes mating preferences, which are inherited from the mother and subject to random variations. A parameter controlling recombination probabilities of the two loci is also introduced. We study the phase diagram by means of simulations, in the space of parameters (adaptive difference, carrying capacity, recombination probability). Three phases are found, characterized by (i) assortative mating, (ii) extinction of one of the A alleles and (iii) Hardy-Weinberg like equilibrium. We also make perturbations of these phases to see how robust they are. Assortative mating can be gained or lost with changes that present hysteresis loops, showing the resulting equilibrium to have partial memory of the initial state and that the process of going from a polymorphic panmictic phase to a phase where assortative mating acts as sexual barrier can be described as a first-order transition. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Electronic transport properties of ascorbic acid and nicotinamide adsorbed on single-walled carbon nanotubes

Ab initio simulations of carbon nanotubes interacting with ascorbic acid and nicotinamide are reported. The electronic transport properties of these systems are studied using a combination of density functional theory and non-equilibrium Green`s functions methods. The adsorptions of both molecules are observed to depend strongly on their functionalization. The interaction through the appropriate functionalized species modifies the structural and electronic properties of the original system, resulting in a chemisorption regime. Changes in the electronic transport properties are also observed, with reductions on the total electronic transmission probabilities. Nevertheless, when the molecules interact through the pristine form, a physisorption interaction is observed with insignificant structural and electronic transport changes. (c) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The web of connections between tourism companies: Structure and dynamics

Tourism destination networks are amongst the most complex dynamical systems, involving a myriad of human-made and natural resources. In this work we report a complex network-based systematic analysis of the Elba (Italy) tourism destination network, including the characterization of its structure in terms of several traditional measurements, the investigation of its modularity, as well as its comprehensive study in terms of the recently reported superedges approach. In particular, structural (the number of paths of distinct lengths between pairs of nodes, as well as the number of reachable companies) and dynamical features (transition probabilities and the inward/outward activations and accessibilities) are measured and analyzed, leading to a series of important findings related to the interactions between tourism companies. Among the several reported results, it is shown that the type and size of the Companies influence strongly their respective activations and accessibilities, while their geographical position does not seem to matter. It is also shown that the Elba tourism network is largely fragmented and heterogeneous, so that it could benefit from increased integration. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A structure-dynamic approach to cortical organization: Number of paths and accessibility

A structure-dynamic approach to cortical systems is reported which is based on the number of paths and the accessibility of each node. The latter measurement is obtained by performing self-avoiding random walks in the respective networks, so as to simulate dynamics, and then calculating the entropies of the transition probabilities for walks starting from each node. Cortical networks of three species, namely cat, macaque and humans, are studied considering structural and dynamical aspects. It is verified that the human cortical network presents the highest accessibility and number of paths (in terms of z-scores). The correlation between the number of paths and accessibility is also investigated as a mean to quantify the level of independence between paths connecting pairs of nodes in cortical networks. By comparing the cortical networks of cat, macaque and humans, it is verified that the human cortical network tends to present the largest number of independent paths of length larger than four. These results suggest that the human cortical network is potentially the most resilient to brain injures. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sampling, WLS, and Mixed Models

Mixed models may be defined with or without reference to sampling, and can be used to predict realized random effects, as when estimating the latent values of study subjects measured with response error. When the model is specified without reference to sampling, a simple mixed model includes two random variables, one stemming from an exchangeable distribution of latent values of study subjects and the other, from the study subjects` response error distributions. Positive probabilities are assigned to both potentially realizable responses and artificial responses that are not potentially realizable, resulting in artificial latent values. In contrast, finite population mixed models represent the two-stage process of sampling subjects and measuring their responses, where positive probabilities are only assigned to potentially realizable responses. A comparison of the estimators over the same potentially realizable responses indicates that the optimal linear mixed model estimator (the usual best linear unbiased predictor, BLUP) is often (but not always) more accurate than the comparable finite population mixed model estimator (the FPMM BLUP). We examine a simple example and provide the basis for a broader discussion of the role of conditioning, sampling, and model assumptions in developing inference.

Random walks systems with killing on Z

We study random walks systems on Z whose general description follows. At time zero, there is a number N >= 1 of particles at each vertex of N, all being inactive, except for those placed at the vertex one. Each active particle performs a simple random walk on Z and, up to the time it dies, it activates all inactive particles that it meets along its way. An active particle dies at the instant it reaches a certain fixed total of jumps (L >= 1) without activating any particle, so that its lifetime depends strongly on the past of the process. We investigate how the probability of survival of the process depends on L and on the jumping probabilities of the active particles.

Improved likelihood inference for the shape parameter in Weibull regression

We obtain adjustments to the profile likelihood function in Weibull regression models with and without censoring. Specifically, we consider two different modified profile likelihoods: (i) the one proposed by Cox and Reid [Cox, D.R. and Reid, N., 1987, Parameter orthogonality and approximate conditional inference. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 49, 1-39.], and (ii) an approximation to the one proposed by Barndorff-Nielsen [Barndorff-Nielsen, O.E., 1983, On a formula for the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator. Biometrika, 70, 343-365.], the approximation having been obtained using the results by Fraser and Reid [Fraser, D.A.S. and Reid, N., 1995, Ancillaries and third-order significance. Utilitas Mathematica, 47, 33-53.] and by Fraser et al. [Fraser, D.A.S., Reid, N. and Wu, J., 1999, A simple formula for tail probabilities for frequentist and Bayesian inference. Biometrika, 86, 655-661.]. We focus on point estimation and likelihood ratio tests on the shape parameter in the class of Weibull regression models. We derive some distributional properties of the different maximum likelihood estimators and likelihood ratio tests. The numerical evidence presented in the paper favors the approximation to Barndorff-Nielsen`s adjustment.