Dynamical models for computer viruses propagation

Nowadays, digital computer systems and networks are the main engineering tools, being used in planning, design, operation, and control of all sizes of building, transportation, machinery, business, and life maintaining devices. Consequently, computer viruses became one of the most important sources of uncertainty, contributing to decrease the reliability of vital activities. A lot of antivirus programs have been developed, but they are limited to detecting and removing infections, based on previous knowledge of the virus code. In spite of having good adaptation capability, these programs work just as vaccines against diseases and are not able to prevent new infections based on the network state. Here, a trial on modeling computer viruses propagation dynamics relates it to other notable events occurring in the network permitting to establish preventive policies in the network management. Data from three different viruses are collected in the Internet and two different identification techniques, autoregressive and Fourier analyses, are applied showing that it is possible to forecast the dynamics of a new virus propagation by using the data collected from other viruses that formerly infected the network. Copyright (c) 2008 J. R. C. Piqueira and F. B. Cesar. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Mutually connected phase-locked loop networks: dynamical models and design parameters

Distribution of timing signals is an essential factor for the development of digital systems for telecommunication networks, integrated circuits and manufacturing automation. Originally, this distribution was implemented by using the master-slave architecture with a precise master clock generator sending signals to phase-locked loops (PLL) working as slave oscillators. Nowadays, wireless networks with dynamical connectivity and the increase in size and operation frequency of the integrated circuits suggest that the distribution of clock signals could be more efficient if mutually connected architectures were used. Here, mutually connected PLL networks are studied and conditions for synchronous states existence are analytically derived, depending on individual node parameters and network connectivity, considering that the nodes are nonlinear oscillators with nonlinear coupling conditions. An expression for the network synchronisation frequency is obtained. The lock-in range and the transmission error bounds are analysed providing hints to the design of this kind of clock distribution system.

A hypothesis for explaining single outbreaks (like the Black Death in European cities) of vector-borne infections

We propose a mechanism by which single outbreaks of vector-borne infections can happen even when the value of the basic reproduction number, R(o), of the infection is below one. With this hypothesis we have shown that dynamical models simulations demonstrate that the arrival of a relatively small (with respect to the host population) number of infected vectors can trigger a short-lived epidemic but with a huge number of cases. These episodes are characterized by a sudden outbreak in a previously virgin area that last from weeks to a few months, and then disappear without leaving vestiges. The hypothesis proposed in this paper to explain those single outbreaks of vector-borne infections, even when total basic reproduction number, Ro, is less than one (which explain the fact that those infections fail to establish themselves at endemic levels), is that the vector-to-host component of Ro is greater than one and that a sufficient amount of infected vectors are imported to the vulnerable area, triggering the outbreak. We tested the hypothesis by performing numerical simulations that reproduce the observed outbreaks of chikungunya in Italy in 2007 and the plague in Florence in 1348. The theory proposed provides an explanation for isolated outbreaks of vector-borne infections, ways to calculate the size of those outbreaks from the number of infected vectors arriving in the affected areas. Given the ever-increasing worldwide transportation network, providing a high degree of mobility from endemic to virgin areas, the proposed mechanism may have important implications for public health planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-Conjugate Adaptive Optics VLT imaging of the distant old open cluster FSR 1415

We employ the recently installed near-infrared Multi-Conjugate Adaptive Optics demonstrator (MAD) to determine the basic properties of a newly identified, old and distant, Galactic open cluster (FSR 1415). The MAD facility remarkably approaches the diffraction limit, reaching a resolution of 0.07 arcsec (in K), that is also uniform in a field of similar to 1.8 arcmin in diameter. The MAD facility provides photometry that is 50 per cent complete at K similar to 19. This corresponds to about 2.5 mag below the cluster main-sequence turn-off. This high-quality data set allows us to derive an accurate heliocentric distance of 8.6 kpc, a metallicity close to solar and an age of similar to 2.5 Gyr. On the other hand, the deepness of the data allows us to reconstruct (completeness-corrected) mass functions (MFs) indicating a relatively massive cluster, with a flat core MF. The Very Large Telescope/MAD capabilities will therefore provide fundamental data for identifying/analysing other faint and distant open clusters in the Galaxy III and IV quadrants.

Universality of sudden death of entanglement

We present a constructive argument to demonstrate the universality of the sudden death of entanglement in the case of two non-interacting qubits, each of which generically coupled to independent Markovian environments at zero temperature. Conditions for the occurrence of the abrupt disappearance of entanglement are determined and, most importantly, rigourously shown to be almost always satisfied: Dynamical models for which the sudden death of entanglement does not occur are seen to form a highly idealized zero-measure subset within the set of all possible quantum dynamics.

Border figure detection using a phase oscillator network with dynamical coupling

Oscillator networks have been developed in order to perform specific tasks related to image processing. Here we analytically investigate the existence of synchronism in a pair of phase oscillators that are short-range dynamically coupled. Then, we use these analytical results to design a network able of detecting border of black-and-white figures. Each unit composing this network is a pair of such phase oscillators and is assigned to a pixel in the image. The couplings among the units forming the network are also dynamical. Border detection emerges from the network activity.

The young, tight, and low-mass binary TWA22AB: a new calibrator for evolutionary models? Orbit, spectral types, and temperature

Context. Tight binaries discovered in young, nearby associations are ideal targets for providing dynamical mass measurements to test the physics of evolutionary models at young ages and very low masses. Aims. We report the binarity of TWA22 for the first time. We aim at monitoring the orbit of this young and tight system to determine its total dynamical mass using an accurate distance determination. We also intend to characterize the physical properties (luminosity, effective temperature, and surface gravity) of each component based on near-infrared photometric and spectroscopic observations. Methods. We used the adaptive-optics assisted imager NACO to resolve the components, to monitor the complete orbit and to obtain the relative near-infrared photometry of TWA22 AB. The adaptive-optics assisted integral field spectrometer SINFONI was also used to obtain medium-resolution (R(lambda) = 1500-2000) spectra in JHK bands. Comparison with empirical and synthetic librairies were necessary for deriving the spectral type, the effective temperature, and the surface gravity for each component of the system. Results. Based on an accurate trigonometric distance (17.5 +/- 0.2 pc) determination, we infer a total dynamical mass of 220 +/- 21 M(Jup) for the system. From the complete set of spectra, we find an effective temperature T(eff) = 2900(-200)(+200) K for TWA22A and T(eff) = 2900(-100)(+200) for TWA22 B and surface gravities between 4.0 and 5.5 dex. From our photometry and an M6 +/- 1 spectral type for both components, we find luminosities of log(L/L(circle dot)) = -2.11 +/- 0.13 dex and log(L/L(circle dot)) = -2.30 +/- 0.16 dex for TWA22 A and B, respectively. By comparing these parameters with evolutionary models, we question the age and the multiplicity of this system. We also discuss a possible underestimation of the mass predicted by evolutionary models for young stars close to the substellar boundary.

Bayesian online algorithms for learning in discrete Hidden Markov Models

We propose and analyze two different Bayesian online algorithms for learning in discrete Hidden Markov Models and compare their performance with the already known Baldi-Chauvin Algorithm. Using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a measure of generalization we draw learning curves in simplified situations for these algorithms and compare their performances.

Dynamical mutation of dark energy

We discuss the intriguing possibility that dark energy may change its equation of state in situations where large dark energy fluctuations are present. We show indications of this dynamical mutation in some generic models of dark energy.

Periodic-orbit analysis and scaling laws of intermingled basins of attraction in an ecological dynamical system

Chaotic dynamical systems with two or more attractors lying on invariant subspaces may, provided certain mathematical conditions are fulfilled, exhibit intermingled basins of attraction: Each basin is riddled with holes belonging to basins of the other attractors. In order to investigate the occurrence of such phenomenon in dynamical systems of ecological interest (two-species competition with extinction) we have characterized quantitatively the intermingled basins using periodic-orbit theory and scaling laws. The latter results agree with a theoretical prediction from a stochastic model, and also with an exact result for the scaling exponent we derived for the specific class of models investigated. We discuss the consequences of the scaling laws in terms of the predictability of a final state (extinction of either species) in an ecological experiment.

Dynamical generation of mass in the D = (2+1) Wess-Zumino model

In this work we study the dynamical generation of mass in the massless N = 1 Wess-Zumino model in a three-dimensional spacetime. Using the tadpole method to compute the effective potential, we observe that supersymmetry is dynamically broken together with the discrete symmetry A(x) -> A(x). We show that this model, different from nonsupersymmetric scalar models, exhibits a consistent perturbative dynamical generation of mass after two-loop corrections to the effective potential.

Exact Search Directions for Optimization of Linear and Nonlinear Models Based on Generalized Orthonormal Functions

A novel technique for selecting the poles of orthonormal basis functions (OBF) in Volterra models of any order is presented. It is well-known that the usual large number of parameters required to describe the Volterra kernels can be significantly reduced by representing each kernel using an appropriate basis of orthonormal functions. Such a representation results in the so-called OBF Volterra model, which has a Wiener structure consisting of a linear dynamic generated by the orthonormal basis followed by a nonlinear static mapping given by the Volterra polynomial series. Aiming at optimizing the poles that fully parameterize the orthonormal bases, the exact gradients of the outputs of the orthonormal filters with respect to their poles are computed analytically by using a back-propagation-through-time technique. The expressions relative to the Kautz basis and to generalized orthonormal bases of functions (GOBF) are addressed; the ones related to the Laguerre basis follow straightforwardly as a particular case. The main innovation here is that the dynamic nature of the OBF filters is fully considered in the gradient computations. These gradients provide exact search directions for optimizing the poles of a given orthonormal basis. Such search directions can, in turn, be used as part of an optimization procedure to locate the minimum of a cost-function that takes into account the error of estimation of the system output. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is adopted here as the optimization procedure. Unlike previous related work, the proposed approach relies solely on input-output data measured from the system to be modeled, i.e., no information about the Volterra kernels is required. Examples are presented to illustrate the application of this approach to the modeling of dynamic systems, including a real magnetic levitation system with nonlinear oscillatory behavior.

Oriented Percolation in One-dimensional 1/vertical bar x-y vertical bar(2) Percolation Models

We consider independent edge percolation models on Z, with edge occupation probabilities. We prove that oriented percolation occurs when beta > 1 provided p is chosen sufficiently close to 1, answering a question posed in Newman and Schulman (Commun. Math. Phys. 104: 547, 1986). The proof is based on multi-scale analysis.

Protein lethality investigated in terms of long range dynamical interactions

The relationship between network structure/dynamics and biological function constitutes a fundamental issue in systems biology. However, despite many related investigations, the correspondence between structure and biological functions is not yet fully understood. A related subject that has deserved particular attention recently concerns how essentiality is related to the structure and dynamics of protein interactions. In the current work, protein essentiality is investigated in terms of long range influences in protein-protein interaction networks by considering simulated dynamical aspects. This analysis is performed with respect to outward activations, an approach which models the propagation of interactions between proteins by considering self-avoiding random walks. The obtained results are compared to protein local connectivity. Both the connectivity and the outward activations were found to be strongly related to protein essentiality.

STABILITY ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATIONS OF A TWO-DIMENSIONAL DYNAMICAL SYSTEM ARISING FROM A STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR AN ASSET MARKET

We analyze the stability properties of equilibrium solutions and periodicity of orbits in a two-dimensional dynamical system whose orbits mimic the evolution of the price of an asset and the excess demand for that asset. The construction of the system is grounded upon a heterogeneous interacting agent model for a single risky asset market. An advantage of this construction procedure is that the resulting dynamical system becomes a macroscopic market model which mirrors the market quantities and qualities that would typically be taken into account solely at the microscopic level of modeling. The system`s parameters correspond to: (a) the proportion of speculators in a market; (b) the traders` speculative trend; (c) the degree of heterogeneity of idiosyncratic evaluations of the market agents with respect to the asset`s fundamental value; and (d) the strength of the feedback of the population excess demand on the asset price update increment. This correspondence allows us to employ our results in order to infer plausible causes for the emergence of price and demand fluctuations in a real asset market. The employment of dynamical systems for studying evolution of stochastic models of socio-economic phenomena is quite usual in the area of heterogeneous interacting agent models. However, in the vast majority of the cases present in the literature, these dynamical systems are one-dimensional. Our work is among the few in the area that construct and study analytically a two-dimensional dynamical system and apply it for explanation of socio-economic phenomena.