Complexity theory and tourism policy research

This paper investigates applications of complexity theory in the social sphere and considers its potential contribution to enhance understanding of tourism policy making. Five concepts are identified to explore complex social circumstances and human interactions that influence policy. Social applications of complexity suggest a move towards localised and deeper studies to explore the dynamics of policy enactment in context. It suggests complexity theory might be used as a thinking tool to enable a more holistic approach to policy analysis and investigate policy in its context, considering interactions between different policies/programmes, and the implications of human agency.

The political economy of co-ordination challenges in the National Health Service: a postpositivist evaluation of diabetes policy and governance

The present PhD thesis develops and applies an evaluative methodology suited to the evaluation of policy and governance in complex policy areas. While extensive literatures exist on the topic of policy evaluation, governance evaluation has received less attention. At the level of governance, policymakers confront choices between different policy tools and governance arrangements in their attempts to solve policy problems, including variants of hierarchy, networks and markets. There is a need for theoretically-informed empirical research to inform decision-making at this level. To that end, the PhD develops an approach to evaluation by combining postpositivist policy analysis with heterodox political economy. Postpositivist policy analysis recognises that policy problems are often contested, that choices between policy options can involve significant trade-offs and that knowledge of policy options is itself dispersed and fragmented. Similarly, heterodox economics combines a concept of incommensurable values with an appreciation of the strengths and weaknesses of different institutional arrangements to realise them. A central concept of the field is coordination, which orientates policy analysis to the interactions of stakeholders in policy processes. The challenge of governance is to select the appropriate policy tools and arrangements which facilitate coordination. Via a postpositivist exploration of stakeholder ‘frames’, it is possible to ascertain whether coordination is occurring and to identify problems if it is not. Evaluative claims of governance can be made where arrangements can be shown to frustrate the realisation of shared values and objectives. The research makes a contribution to knowledge in a number of ways a) a distinctive evaluative approach that could be applied to other areas of health and public policy b) greater appreciation of the strengths and weaknesses of different forms of evidence in public policy and in particular health policy and c) concrete policy proposals for the governance and organisation of diabetes services, with implications for the NHS more broadly.

Inflation targeting and the consistency of monetary policy decisions in Mexico: an empirical analysis with discrete choice models

This paper examines the nature of monetary policy decisions in Mexico using discrete choice models applied to the Central Bank's explicit monetary policy instrument. We find that monetary policy adjustments in Mexico have been strongly consistent with the CB's inflation targeting strategy. We also find evidence that monetary policy responds in a forward-looking manner to deviations of inflation from the target and that observed policy adjustments exhibit asymmetric features, with stronger responses to positive than to negative deviations of inflation from the target and a greater likelihood of policy persistence during periods when monetary policy is tightened, compared with periods when policy is loosened.