Complexity theory and tourism policy research

This paper investigates applications of complexity theory in the social sphere and considers its potential contribution to enhance understanding of tourism policy making. Five concepts are identified to explore complex social circumstances and human interactions that influence policy. Social applications of complexity suggest a move towards localised and deeper studies to explore the dynamics of policy enactment in context. It suggests complexity theory might be used as a thinking tool to enable a more holistic approach to policy analysis and investigate policy in its context, considering interactions between different policies/programmes, and the implications of human agency.

The political economy of co-ordination challenges in the National Health Service: a postpositivist evaluation of diabetes policy and governance

The present PhD thesis develops and applies an evaluative methodology suited to the evaluation of policy and governance in complex policy areas. While extensive literatures exist on the topic of policy evaluation, governance evaluation has received less attention. At the level of governance, policymakers confront choices between different policy tools and governance arrangements in their attempts to solve policy problems, including variants of hierarchy, networks and markets. There is a need for theoretically-informed empirical research to inform decision-making at this level. To that end, the PhD develops an approach to evaluation by combining postpositivist policy analysis with heterodox political economy. Postpositivist policy analysis recognises that policy problems are often contested, that choices between policy options can involve significant trade-offs and that knowledge of policy options is itself dispersed and fragmented. Similarly, heterodox economics combines a concept of incommensurable values with an appreciation of the strengths and weaknesses of different institutional arrangements to realise them. A central concept of the field is coordination, which orientates policy analysis to the interactions of stakeholders in policy processes. The challenge of governance is to select the appropriate policy tools and arrangements which facilitate coordination. Via a postpositivist exploration of stakeholder ‘frames’, it is possible to ascertain whether coordination is occurring and to identify problems if it is not. Evaluative claims of governance can be made where arrangements can be shown to frustrate the realisation of shared values and objectives. The research makes a contribution to knowledge in a number of ways a) a distinctive evaluative approach that could be applied to other areas of health and public policy b) greater appreciation of the strengths and weaknesses of different forms of evidence in public policy and in particular health policy and c) concrete policy proposals for the governance and organisation of diabetes services, with implications for the NHS more broadly.

Inflation targeting and the consistency of monetary policy decisions in Mexico: an empirical analysis with discrete choice models

This paper examines the nature of monetary policy decisions in Mexico using discrete choice models applied to the Central Bank's explicit monetary policy instrument. We find that monetary policy adjustments in Mexico have been strongly consistent with the CB's inflation targeting strategy. We also find evidence that monetary policy responds in a forward-looking manner to deviations of inflation from the target and that observed policy adjustments exhibit asymmetric features, with stronger responses to positive than to negative deviations of inflation from the target and a greater likelihood of policy persistence during periods when monetary policy is tightened, compared with periods when policy is loosened.

中国四个城市吸引海外回流人才比较研究：一个政策的视角 (Returned highly skilled migrants in four Chinese cities: a policy perspective)

Most studies of returned highly skilled migrants in China were guided by a national approach, emphasizing how the size and direction of the return migration were shaped by national policies and practices. What have been overlooked are the flows of returned skills at the municipal level where talent attraction and employment really take place. To fill this gap, the author conducted a comparative study of the returned highly-skilled migration in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the four most important cities in China. Based on in-depth interviews with returned skills from different countries and with various occupational backgrounds, complemented by the analysis of talent policies that have been issued by each city since the early 1990s and relevant statistical data, this study finds that, first, municipal cities tend to make ‘localized policies’ in order to suit local situation and to increase flexibility and efficiency in their effort of enticing of talents, demonstrating a wide range of variations not yet discussed in previous literature. It is thus crucial to pay timely attention to municipalities in order to obtain a more accurate and balanced picture of returned skilled migration in China. Second, the flow of returned skills shall be perceived in a broader analytical framework, in which the attractiveness to skills comes mostly from the long-term career potentials made possible by the industrial structure of individual city and mediated by social, cultural and geographical factors. It is only within this larger framework and through the interaction with other factors that government policies play their modulator roles.

Monetary policy, exchange rates and stock prices in the Middle East region

A structural vector autoregressive model is employed to investigate the impact of monetary policy and real exchange rate shocks on the stock market performance of Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. In order to identify the structural shocks both short run and long run restrictions are applied. Unlike previous literature the contemporaneous interdependence between the financial variables are left unrestricted to give a more accurate depiction of the relationships. The heterogeneity of the results reflect the different monetary policy frameworks and stock market characteristics of these countries. Mainly, monetary policy and the real exchange rate shocks have a significant short run impact on the stock prices of the countries that apply a relatively more independent monetary policy and flexible exchange rates.

Reflections of professional practice: using electronic discourse analysis networks (EDANs) to examine embedded business emails

Emails have become a central genre in business communication, reflecting both how people communicate and how they go about their professional practices. This chapter examines embedded business emails as reflections of the professional practices of the regulatory and policy department of a multinational based in London, UK. It argues that the nature of online communication in international organisations, with its high levels of intertextuality and interdiscursivity, requires multidimensional analytical approaches that are capable of capturing its complexity and dynamics. To this end, the chapter introduces electronic discourse analysis networks (EDANs) as one example of such approaches. It begins with a brief review of the literature that has informed the study reported on here before it discusses EDANs as its analytical framework. Using a group of embedded emails and a number of networked data sets, the chapter shows how EDANs can be used to further our understanding of professional online communication.

Embracing difference and the deferral of self-government: a critical analysis of the framing and practice of contemporary peace building

This thesis analyses how dominant policy approaches to peacebuilding have moved away from a single and universalised understanding of peace to be achieved through a top-down strategy of democratisation and economic liberalisation, prevalent at the beginning of 1990s. Instead, throughout the 2000s, peacebuilders have increasingly adopted a commitment to cultivating a bottom-up and hybrid peace building process that is context-sensitive and intended to be more respectful of the needs and values of post-war societies. The projects of statebuilding in Kosovo and, to a lesser extent, in Bosnia are examined to illustrate the shift. By capturing this shift, I seek to argue that contemporary practitioners of peace are sharing the sensibility of the theoretical critics of liberalism. These critics have long contended that post-war societies cannot be governed from ‘above’ and have advocated the adoption of a bottom-up approach to peacebuilding. Now, both peace practitioners and their critics share the tendency to embrace difference in peacebuilding operations, but this shift has failed to address meaningfully the problems and concerns of post-conflict societies. The conclusion of this research is that, drawing on the assumption that these societies are not capable of undertaking sovereign acts because of their problematic inter-subjective frames, the discourses of peacebuilding (in policy-making and academic critique) have increasingly legitimised an open-ended role of interference by external agencies, which now operate from ‘below’. Peacebuilding has turned into a long-term process, in which international and local actors engage relationally in the search for ever-more emancipatory hybrid outcomes, but in which self-government and self-determination are constantly deferred. Processes of emphasising difference have thus denied the political autonomy of post-war societies and have continuously questioned the political and human equality of these populations in a hierarchically divided world.

The Potential of Participedia as a Crowdsourcing Tool for Comparative Analysis of Democratic Innovations

For two reasons, our capacity for systematic comparison of innovative participatory democratic processes remains limited. First, the category of participatory democratic innovations remains relatively vague when compared to more traditional democratic institutions and practices. Second, until recently there existed no large-sample databases that captured relevant variables in the practice of democratic innovation. The lone exception to these patterns is the Participedia database, located online. Participedia is well placed to respond to the two obstacles to systematic comparative research on democratic innovation. First, its crowdsourced data collection strategy means that many of the cases on the platform are not well known and have not been the subject of sustained academic analysis. Second, the data captured in the articles provides the basis for systematic comparative analysis of democratic innovations both within type (e.g., participatory budgeting, mini-publics) and across types. The platform allows for systematic content analysis of text descriptions and/or statistical analysis of the datasets generated from the structured data fields. This article describes the data about innovative participatory democratic processes available from Participedia, and furnishes examples of the kinds of quantitative and qualitative insights about those processes that Participedia enables.

Regional collaborations and indigenous innovation capabilities in China: A multivariate method for the analysis of regional innovation systems

In this study we analyse the emerging patterns of regional collaboration for innovation projects in China, using official government statistics of 30 Chinese regions. We propose the use of Ordinal Multidimensional Scaling and Cluster analysis as a robust method to study regional innovation systems. Our results show that regional collaborations amongst organisations can be categorised by means of eight dimensions: public versus private organisational mindset; public versus private resources; innovation capacity versus available infrastructures; innovation input (allocated resources) versus innovation output; knowledge production versus knowledge dissemination; and collaborative capacity versus collaboration output. Collaborations which are aimed to generate innovation fell into 4 categories, those related to highly specialised public research institutions, public universities, private firms and governmental intervention. By comparing the representative cases of regions in terms of these four innovation actors, we propose policy measures for improving regional innovation collaboration within China.

Troubled waters: an institutional analysis of ageing Dutch and American waterway infrastructure

Waterways are one of the oldest systems for the transportation of cargo and continue to play a vital role in the economies of some countries. Due to societal change, climate change and the ageing of assets, the conditions influencing the effective functioning of these systems seem to be changing. These changing conditions require measures to renew, adapt or renovate these waterway systems. However, measures with the sole aim of improving navigation conditions have encountered resistance, as the general public, and stakeholders in particular, value these waters in many more ways than navigation alone. Therefore, a more inclusive, integrated approach is required, rather than a sectoral one. Addressing these contemporary challenges requires a shift in the traditional waterway authorities' regimes. The aim of this study is to identify elements in the institutional setting where obstacles and opportunities for a more inclusive approach can be found. Two major waterway systems, the American and the Dutch, have been analyzed using the Institutional Analysis and Development framework to reveal those obstacles and opportunities. The results show that horizontal coordination and a low pay-off for an inclusive approach is particularly problematic. The American case also reveals a promising aspect – mandatory local co-funding for federal navigation projects acts as a stimulus for broad stakeholder involvement. Improving horizontal coordination and seizing opportunities for multifunctional development can open pathways to optimize the value of waterway systems for society.

The Role of Emotion in Global Warming Policy Support and Opposition

Prior research has found that affect and affective imagery strongly influence public support for global warming. This article extends this literature by exploring the separate influence of discrete emotions. Utilizing a nationally representative survey in the United States, this study found that discrete emotions were stronger predictors of global warming policy support than cultural worldviews, negative affect, image associations, or sociodemographic variables. In particular, worry, interest, and hope were strongly associated with increased policy support. The results contribute to experiential theories of risk information processing and suggest that discrete emotions play a significant role in public support for climate change policy. Implications for climate change communication are also discussed.

Eco city development in China: addressing the policy implementation challenge

Over the last few decades, China has seen a steep rise in diverse eco city and low carbon city policies. Recently, attention has begun to focus on the perceived shortcomings in the practical delivery of related initiatives, with several publications suggesting a gap between ambitious policy goals and the emerging realities of the newly built environment. To probe this further, in this article we examine – based on the policy network approach – how the gap between high-level national policies and local practice implementation can be explained in the current Chinese context. We develop a four-pronged typology of eco city projects based on differential involvement of key (policy) actor groups, followed by a mapping of what are salient policy network relations among these actors in each type. Our analysis suggests that, within the overall framework of national policy, a core axis in the network relations is that between local government and land developers. In some cases, central government agencies– often with buy-in from international architecture, engineering and consulting firms – seek to influence local government planning through various incentives aimed at rendering sustainability a serious consideration. However, this is mostly done in a top-down manner, which overemphasizes a rational, technocratic planning mode while underemphasizing interrelationships among actors. This makes the emergence of a substantial implementation gap in eco city practice an almost predictable outcome. Consequently, we argue that special attention be paid in particular to the close interdependency between the interests of local government actors and those of land and real estate developers. Factoring in this aspect of the policy network is essential if eco city implementation is to gain proper traction on the ground.

‘The Party’s Over’: Critical Junctures, Crises and the Politics of Housing Policy

The key argument set out in this article is that historical and comparative forms of investigation are necessary if we are to better understand the ambitions and scope of contemporary housing interventions. To demonstrate the veracity of our claim we have set out an analysis of UK housing polices enacted in the mid 1970s as a basis for comparison with those pursued forty years later. The article begins with a critical summary of some of the methodological approaches adopted by researchers used to interpret housing policy. In the main section we present our critical analysis of housing policy reforms (implemented by the Labour government between 1974 and 1979) noting both their achievements and limitations. In the concluding section, we use our interpretation of this period as a basis to judge contemporary housing policy and reflect on the methodological issues that arise from our analysis.

Detailed analysis of data from heat pumps installed via the Renewable Heat Premium Payment Scheme

The RHPP policy provided subsidies for private householders, Registered social landlords and communities to install renewable heat measures in residential properties. Eligible measures included air and ground-source heat pumps, biomass boilers and solar thermal. Around 18,000 heat pumps were installed via this scheme. DECC funded a detailed monitoring campaign, which covered 700 heat pumps (around 4% of the total). The aim of this monitoring campaign was to assess the efficiencies of the heat pumps and to estimate the carbon and bill savings and amount of renewable heat generated. Data was collected from 31/10/2013 to 31/03/2015. This report represents the analysis of this data and represents the most complete and reliable data in-situ residential heat pump performance in the UK to date.