Forecasting overseas visitors into the United Kingdom using continuous time and autoregressive fractional integrated moving average models with discrete data

This paper applies Gaussian estimation methods to continuous time models for modelling overseas visitors into the UK. The use of continuous time modelling is widely used in economics and finance but not in tourism forecasting. Using monthly data for 1986–2010, various continuous time models are estimated and compared to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Dynamic forecasts are obtained over different periods. The empirical results show that the ARIMA model performs very well, but that the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) continuous time model has the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) over a short period.

Investigating relationships between road freight transport, facility location, logistics management and urban form

This paper examines road freight transport activity and its relationship with facility location, logistics management and urban form through an analysis of 14 selected urban areas in the UK. Improved understanding of this relationship will assist planners when making transport and land use decisions. The findings suggest that several geographical, spatial and land use factors have important influences on freight activity in urban areas. Commercial and industrial land use patterns affect the types and quantities of goods produced, consumed, and hence the total quantity of freight transport handled. This also influences the distances over which goods are moved and by what specific mode. There has been relatively low growth in warehousing in many of the selected areas over the last decade compared to the national average as well suburbanisation of warehousing in some locations. This affects the origin and destination of journeys visiting these facilities and typically increases the distance of such journeys. A greater proportion of road freight has been shown to be lifted on internal journeys in large urban areas than in smaller ones. Journeys within urban areas have been shown to be less efficient than journeys to and from the urban area in the 14 locations studied due to the much smaller average vehicle carrying capacities and lower lading factors for journeys within urban areas. The length of haul on journeys to and from urban areas studied was found to be greatest for those areas with a major seaport and/or which were geographically remote. This affects the road freight transport intensity of goods transport journeys.

Evaluation of the potential for virus dispersal during hand drying: a comparison of three methods

Aims To use a MS2 bacteriophage model to compare three hand-drying methods, paper towels (PT), a warm air dryer (WAD) and a jet air dryer (JAD), for their potential to disperse viruses and contaminate the immediate environment during use. Methods and Results Participants washed their gloved hands with a suspension of MS2 bacteriophage and hands were dried with one of the three hand-drying devices. The quantity of MS2 present in the areas around each device was determined using a plaque assay. Samples were collected from plates containing the indicator strain, placed at varying heights and distances and also from the air. Over a height range of 0.15-1.65 m, the JAD dispersed an average of >60 and >1300-fold more plaque-forming units (pfu) compared to the WAD and PT (P <0.0001), respectively. The JAD dispersed an average of >20 and >190-fold more pfu in total compared to WAD and PT at all distances tested up to 3 m (P <0.01), respectively. Air samples collected around each device 15 minutes after use indicated that the JAD dispersed an average of >50 and >100-fold more pfu compared to the WAD and PT (P <0.001), respectively. Conclusions Use of the JAD lead to significantly greater and further dispersal of MS2 bacteriophage from artificially contaminated hands when compared to the WAD and PT. Significance and Impact of Study The choice of hand drying device should be considered carefully in areas where infection prevention concerns are paramount, such as healthcare settings and the food industry.