Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates

Previous research on the prediction of fiscal aggregates has shown evidence that simple autoregressive models often provide better forecasts of fiscal variables than multivariate specifications. We argue that the multivariate models considered by previous studies are small-scale, probably burdened by overparameterization, and not robust to structural changes. Bayesian Vector Autoregressions (BVARs), on the other hand, allow the information contained in a large data set to be summarized efficiently, and can also allow for time variation in both the coefficients and the volatilities. In this paper we explore the performance of BVARs with constant and drifting coefficients for forecasting key fiscal variables such as government revenues, expenditures, and interest payments on the outstanding debt. We focus on both point and density forecasting, as assessments of a country’s fiscal stability and overall credit risk should typically be based on the specification of a whole probability distribution for the future state of the economy. Using data from the US and the largest European countries, we show that both the adoption of a large system and the introduction of time variation help in forecasting, with the former playing a relatively more important role in point forecasting, and the latter being more important for density forecasting.

Differing methodologies to measure microbe dispersal during hand drying

Background: Having previously investigated the dispersal by different hand drying methods of a chemical indicator, fungi and bacteria on the hands of users, this new study assessed the potential for viral dispersal. Aims/Objectives: To determine differences between hand drying methods in their capacity to disperse viruses on the hands of users to other occupants of public washrooms and into the washroom environment. Method: A harmless virus was used to artificially contaminate the hands of participants prior to using three different hand drying devices (jet air dryer, warm air dryer, paper towel dispenser). Viral dispersal was assessed at different heights and distances from the hand drying devices and also at different times after use by means of an air sampler. Results: The jet air dryer was shown to produce significantly more dispersal of virus than the warm air dryer or paper towels. After use of the jet air dryer, high numbers of virus were detected at a range of heights with maximum numbers between 0.61 and 1.22 metres. Virus was also detected at distances of up to 3 metres from the jet air dryer and in the air for up to 15 minutes after its use. The warm air dryer and paper towel dispenser produced low or zero viral counts at different heights, different distances and times after use. Conclusion: Jet air dryers have a greater potential than other hand drying methods to disperse viruses on the hands and contaminate other occupants of a public washroom and the washroom environment.

Evaluation of the potential for virus dispersal during hand drying: a comparison of three methods

Aims To use a MS2 bacteriophage model to compare three hand-drying methods, paper towels (PT), a warm air dryer (WAD) and a jet air dryer (JAD), for their potential to disperse viruses and contaminate the immediate environment during use. Methods and Results Participants washed their gloved hands with a suspension of MS2 bacteriophage and hands were dried with one of the three hand-drying devices. The quantity of MS2 present in the areas around each device was determined using a plaque assay. Samples were collected from plates containing the indicator strain, placed at varying heights and distances and also from the air. Over a height range of 0.15-1.65 m, the JAD dispersed an average of >60 and >1300-fold more plaque-forming units (pfu) compared to the WAD and PT (P <0.0001), respectively. The JAD dispersed an average of >20 and >190-fold more pfu in total compared to WAD and PT at all distances tested up to 3 m (P <0.01), respectively. Air samples collected around each device 15 minutes after use indicated that the JAD dispersed an average of >50 and >100-fold more pfu compared to the WAD and PT (P <0.001), respectively. Conclusions Use of the JAD lead to significantly greater and further dispersal of MS2 bacteriophage from artificially contaminated hands when compared to the WAD and PT. Significance and Impact of Study The choice of hand drying device should be considered carefully in areas where infection prevention concerns are paramount, such as healthcare settings and the food industry.