Vector Error-Correction Models in a consumer packaged goods category forecasting decision support system

A framework for developing marketing category management decision support systems (DSS) based upon the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model is extended. Since the BVAR model is vulnerable to permanent and temporary shifts in purchasing patterns over time, a form that can correct for the shifts and still provide the other advantages of the BVAR is a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model (BVECM). We present the mechanics of extending the DSS to move from a BVAR model to the BVECM model for the category management problem. Several additional iterative steps are required in the DSS to allow the decision maker to arrive at the best forecast possible. The revised marketing DSS framework and model fitting procedures are described. Validation is conducted on a sample problem.

Structured modeling of recombinant protein production in batch and fed-batch culture of baculovirus-infected insect cells

The infection of insect cells with baculovirus was described in a mathematical model as a part of the structured dynamic model describing whole animal cell metabolism. The model presented here is capable of simulating cell population dynamics, the concentrations of extracellular and intracellular viral components, and the heterologous product titers. The model describes the whole processes of viral infection and the effect of the infection on the host cell metabolism. Dynamic simulation of the model in batch and fed-batch mode gave good agreement between model predictions and experimental data. Optimum conditions for insect cell culture and viral infection in batch and fed-batch culture were studied using the model.

Nonstationary brand variables in category management: A cointegration perspective

Category-management models serve to assist in the development of plans for pricing and promotions of individual brands. Techniques to solve the models can have problems of accuracy and interpretability because they are susceptible to spurious regression problems due to nonstationary time-series data. Improperly stated nonstationary systems can reduce the accuracy of the forecasts and undermine the interpretation of the results. This is problematic because recent studies indicate that sales are often a nonstationary time-series. Newly developed correction techniques can account for nonstationarity by incorporating error-correction terms into the model when using a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model. The benefit of using such a technique is that shocks to control variates can be separated into permanent and temporary effects and allow cointegration of series for analysis purposes. Analysis of a brand data set indicates that this is important even at the brand level. Thus, additional information is generated that allows a decision maker to examine controllable variables in terms of whether they influence sales over a short or long duration. Only products that are nonstationary in sales volume can be manipulated for long-term profit gain, and promotions must be cointegrated with brand sales volume. The brand data set is used to explore the capabilities and interpretation of cointegration.

Optimising fed-batch production of recombinant proteins using the baculovirus expression vector system

Fed-batch culture can offer significant improvement in recombinant protein production compared to batch culture in the baculovirus expression vector system (BEVS), as shown by Nguyen et al. (1993) and Bedard et al. (1994) among others. However, a thorough analysis of fed-batch culture to determine its limits in improving recombinant protein production over batch culture has yet to be performed. In this work, this issue is addressed by the optimisation of single-addition fed-batch culture. This type of fed-batch culture involves the manual addition of a multi-component nutrient feed to batch culture before infection with the baculovirus. The nutrient feed consists of yeastolate ultrafiltrate, lipids, amino acids, vitamins, trace elements, and glucose, which were added to batch cultures of Spodoptera frugiperda (Sf9) cells before infection with a recombinant Autographa californica nuclear polyhedrosis virus (Ac-NPV) expressing beta-galactosidase (beta-Gal). The fed-batch production of beta-Gal was optimised using response surface methods (RSM). The optimisation was performed in two stages, starting with a screening procedure to determine the most important variables and ending with a central-composite experiment to obtain a response surface model of volumetric beta-Gal production. The predicted optimum volumetric yield of beta-Gal in fed-batch culture was 2.4-fold that of the best yields in batch culture. This result was confirmed by a statistical analysis of the best fed-batch and batch data (with average beta-Gal yields of 1.2 and 0.5 g/L, respectively) obtained from this laboratory. The response surface model generated can be used to design a more economical fed-batch operation, in which nutrient feed volumes are minimised while maintaining acceptable improvements in beta-Gal yield. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Lentiviral vector-mediated tyro sinase-related protein 2 gene transfer to dendritic cells for the therapy of melanoma

Dendritic cells (DCs) are the most potent professional antigen-presenting cells (APCs), which play a vital role in primary immune responses. Introducing genes into DCs will allow constitutive expression of the encoded proteins and thus prolong the presentation of the antigens derived therefrom. In addition, multiple and unidentified epitopes encoded by the entire tumor-associated antigen (TAA) gene may enhance T cell activation. This study demonstrated that an HIV-1-based lentiviral vector conferred efficient gene transfer to DCs. The transgene, murine tyrosinase-related protein 2 (mTRP-2), encodes a clinically relevant melanoma-associated antigen (MAA), which has been found to be a tumor rejection antigen for B16 melanoma. The transfer and proper processing of mTRP-2 in DCs, in terms of RNA transcription activity and protein expression, were verified by RT-PCR and specific antibody, respectively. Administration of mTRP-2 gene-modified DCs (DC-HR'CmT2) to C57BL/6 mice evoked strong protection against tumor challenge, for which the presence of CD4(+) and CD8(+) cells during both the priming and challenge phase was essential. In a therapy model, our results showed that four of seven mice with preestablished tumor remained tumor free for 80 days after therapeutic vaccination. Given the results shown in this study, mTRP-2 gene transfer to DCs provides a potential therapeutic strategy for the management of melanoma, especially in the early stage of the disease.

Anisotropic convection model for the earth's mantle

The paper presents a theory for modeling flow in anisotropic, viscous rock. This theory has originally been developed for the simulation of large deformation processes including the folding and kinking of multi-layered visco-elastic rock (Muhlhaus et al. [1,2]). The orientation of slip planes in the context of crystallographic slip is determined by the normal vector - the director - of these surfaces. The model is applied to simulate anisotropic mantle convection. We compare the evolution of flow patterns, Nusselt number and director orientations for isotropic and anisotropic rheologies. In the simulations we utilize two different finite element methodologies: The Lagrangian Integration Point Method Moresi et al [8] and an Eulerian formulation, which we implemented into the finite element based pde solver Fastflo (www.cmis.csiro.au/Fastflo/). The reason for utilizing two different finite element codes was firstly to study the influence of an anisotropic power law rheology which currently is not implemented into the Lagrangian Integration point scheme [8] and secondly to study the numerical performance of Eulerian (Fastflo)- and Lagrangian integration schemes [8]. It turned out that whereas in the Lagrangian method the Nusselt number vs time plot reached only a quasi steady state where the Nusselt number oscillates around a steady state value the Eulerian scheme reaches exact steady states and produces a high degree of alignment (director orientation locally orthogonal to velocity vector almost everywhere in the computational domain). In the simulations emergent anisotropy was strongest in terms of modulus contrast in the up and down-welling plumes. Mechanisms for anisotropic material behavior in the mantle dynamics context are discussed by Christensen [3]. The dominant mineral phases in the mantle generally do not exhibit strong elastic anisotropy but they still may be oriented by the convective flow. Thus viscous anisotropy (the main focus of this paper) may or may not correlate with elastic or seismic anisotropy.

Development of a short-term model using petrophysical logging at Century Mine, North Queensland

Pasminco Century Mine has developed a geophysical logging system to provide new data for ore mining/grade control and the generation of Short Term Models for mine planning. Previous work indicated the applicability of petrophysical logging for lithology prediction, however, the automation of the method was not considered reliable enough for the development of a mining model. A test survey was undertaken using two diamond drilled control holes and eight percussion holes. All holes were logged with natural gamma, magnetic susceptibility and density. Calibration of the LogTrans auto-interpretation software using only natural gamma and magnetic susceptibility indicated that both lithology and stratigraphy could be predicted. Development of a capability to enforce stratigraphic order within LogTrans increased the reliability and accuracy of interpretations. After the completion of a feasibility program, Century Mine has invested in a dedicated logging vehicle to log blast holes as well as for use in in-fill drilling programs. Future refinement of the system may lead to the development of GPS controlled excavators for mining ore.

A bacterial artificial chromosome library of Lotus japonicus constructed in an Agrobacterium tumefaciens-transformable vector

We constructed a BAC library of the model legume Lotus japonicus with a 6-to 7-fold genome coverage. We used vector PCLD04541, which allows direct plant transformation by BACs. The average insert size is 94 kb. Clones were stable in Escherichia coli and Agrobacterium tumefaciens.

The specification of vector autoregressive moving average models

In this paper we propose a new identification method based on the residual white noise autoregressive criterion (Pukkila et al. , 1990) to select the order of VARMA structures. Results from extensive simulation experiments based on different model structures with varying number of observations and number of component series are used to demonstrate the performance of this new procedure. We also use economic and business data to compare the model structures selected by this order selection method with those identified in other published studies.

SVMtm: Support vector machines to predict transmembrane segments

A new method has been developed for prediction of transmembrane helices using support vector machines. Different coding schemes of protein sequences were explored, and their performances were assessed by crossvalidation tests. The best performance method can predict the transmembrane helices with sensitivity of 93.4% and precision of 92.0%. For each predicted transmembrane segment, a score is given to show the strength of transmembrane signal and the prediction reliability. In particular, this method can distinguish transmembrane proteins from soluble proteins with an accuracy of similar to99%. This method can be used to complement current transmembrane helix prediction methods and can be Used for consensus analysis of entire proteomes . The predictor is located at http://genet.imb.uq.edu.au/predictors/ SVMtm. (C) 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A physiological product-release model for baculovirus infected insect cells

Existing models describe the product release from baculovirus infected insect cells as an unspecific protein leakage occurring in parallel with protein production. The model presented here shows that the observed product release of normally non-secreted proteins can be described through cell death alone. This model avoids the implicit non-physiological assumption of previous models that cells permeable to recombinant protein as well as trypan blue continue to produce protein. (c) 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multigradient field-active contour model for multilayer boundary detection of ultrasound rectal wall image

Extraction and reconstruction of rectal wall structures from an ultrasound image is helpful for surgeons in rectal clinical diagnosis and 3-D reconstruction of rectal structures from ultrasound images. The primary task is to extract the boundary of the muscular layers on the rectal wall. However, due to the low SNR from ultrasound imaging and the thin muscular layer structure of the rectum, this boundary detection task remains a challenge. An active contour model is an effective high-level model, which has been used successfully to aid the tasks of object representation and recognition in many image-processing applications. We present a novel multigradient field active contour algorithm with an extended ability for multiple-object detection, which overcomes some limitations of ordinary active contour models—"snakes." The core part in the algorithm is the proposal of multigradient vector fields, which are used to replace image forces in kinetic function for alternative constraints on the deformation of active contour, thereby partially solving the initialization limitation of active contour for rectal wall boundary detection. An adaptive expanding force is also added to the model to help the active contour go through the homogenous region in the image. The efficacy of the model is explained and tested on the boundary detection of a ring-shaped image, a synthetic image, and an ultrasound image. The experimental results show that the proposed multigradient field-active contour is feasible for multilayer boundary detection of rectal wall

Detecting and sorting targeting peptides wtih neural networks and support vector machines

This paper presents a composite multi-layer classifier system for predicting the subcellular localization of proteins based on their amino acid sequence. The work is an extension of our previous predictor PProwler v1.1 which is itself built upon the series of predictors SignalP and TargetP. In this study we outline experiments conducted to improve the classifier design. The major improvement came from using Support Vector machines as a "smart gate" sorting the outputs of several different targeting peptide detection networks. Our final model (PProwler v1.2) gives MCC values of 0.873 for non-plant and 0.849 for plant proteins. The model improves upon the accuracy of our previous subcellular localization predictor (PProwler v1.1) by 2% for plant data (which represents 7.5% improvement upon TargetP).

Motion vector encryption in multimedia streaming

Streaming video application requires high security as well as high computational performance. In video encryption, traditional selective algorithms have been used to partially encrypt the relatively important data in order to satisfy the streaming performance requirement. Most video selective encryption algorithms are inherited from still image encryption algorithms, the encryption on motion vector data is not considered. The assumption is that motion vector data are not as important as pixel image data. Unfortunately, in some cases, motion vector itself may be sufficient enough to leak out useful video information. Normally motion vector data consume over half of the whole video stream bandwidth, neglecting their security may be unwise. In this paper, we target this security problem and illustrate attacks at two different levels that can restore useful video information using motion vectors only. Further, an information analysis is made and a motion vector information model is built. Based on this model, we describe a new motion vector encryption algorithm called MVEA. We show the experimental results of MVEA. The security strength and performance of the algorithm are also evaluated.