Evaluating trends in abundance of immature green turtles, Chelonia mydas, in the Greater Caribbean

Many long-lived marine species exhibit life history traits. that make them more vulnerable to overexploitation. Accurate population trend analysis is essential for development and assessment of management plans for these species. However, because many of these species disperse over large geographic areas, have life stages inaccessible to human surveyors, and/or undergo complex developmental migrations, data on trends in abundance are often available for only one stage of the population, usually breeding adults. The green turtle (Chelonia mydas) is one of these long-lived species for which population trends are based almost exclusively on either numbers of females that emerge to nest or numbers of nests deposited each year on geographically restricted beaches. In this study, we generated estimates of annual abundance for juvenile green turtles at two foraging grounds in the Bahamas based on long-term capture-mark-recapture (CMR) studies at Union Creek (24 years) and Conception Creek (13 years), using a two-stage approach. First, we estimated recapture probabilities from CMR data using the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models in the software program MARK; second, we estimated annual abundance of green turtles. at both study sites using the recapture probabilities in a Horvitz-Thompson type estimation procedure. Green turtle abundance did not change significantly in Conception Creek, but, in Union Creek, green turtle abundance had successive phases of significant increase, significant decrease, and stability. These changes in abundance resulted from changes in immigration, not survival or emigration. The trends in abundance on the foraging grounds did not conform to the significantly increasing trend for the major nesting population at Tortuguero, Costa Rica. This disparity highlights the challenges of assessing population-wide trends of green turtles and other long-lived species. The best approach for monitoring population trends may be a combination of (1) extensive surveys to provide data for large-scale trends in relative population abundance, and (2) intensive surveys, using CMR techniques, to estimate absolute abundance and evaluate the demographic processes' driving the trends.

Seasonal changes in the diel surfacing behaviour of the bimodally respiring turtle Rheodytes leukops

The purpose of this study was to determine whether a relationship existed between the diel surfacing trends of the bimodally respiring freshwater turtle Rheodytes leukops and daily fluctuations in specific biotic and abiotic factors: The, diel surfacing behaviour of adult R. leukops was recorded over four consecutive seasons (Austral autumn 2000 - summer 2001) within Marlborough Creek, central Queensland, Australia, using pressure-sensitive time-depth recorders. Additionally, diurnal variations in water temperature and aquatic Po-2 level, as well as the turtle's behavioural state (i.e., active versus resting), were monitored. In autumn and summer, surfacing frequency increased significantly during the daylight hours, with peak levels normally occurring around dawn (0500-0700) and. dusk (1700-1900). However, no consistent diel surfacing trend was recorded, for the turtles in winter or spring, owing to considerable variation among individual R. leukops. Diurnal surfacing trends recorded for R. leukops in, autumn and summer are attributed to periods of increased activity (possibly associated with foraging) during the daylight hours and not to daily variations in water temperature or aquatic Po-2 level. Turtles generally remained at a depth greater than 1 m throughout the day, where the effect of diel fluctuations in water temperature, (

Authors' institutional affiliations in Australian intellectual and developmental disabilities journals: a comparison of two decades

The generation of new knowledge through research can contribute significantly to the improvement of services for individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities. This study extends a previous study by Sigafoos, Roberts, and Couzens [Aust. N.Z.J. Dev. Disabil. 17 (1991) 331] by examining research productivity in intellectual and developmental disability in Australian journals for 1990-1999. Institutions that published research articles on intellectual and developmental disabilities in Australian journals in the 1990s were identified by noting the affiliations of authors. The most productive institutions were primarily universities in Australia and the United States of America. Publication trends in the decade of the 1990s are compared with trends of the previous decade (1980-1990). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries

The purpose of this work was to model lung cancer mortality as a function of past exposure to tobacco and to forecast age-sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates. A 3-factor age-period-cohort (APC) model, in which the period variable is replaced by the product of average tar content and adult tobacco consumption per capita, was estimated for the US, UK, Canada and Australia by the maximum likelihood method. Age- and sex-specific tobacco consumption was estimated from historical data on smoking prevalence and total tobacco consumption. Lung cancer mortality was derived from vital registration records. Future tobacco consumption, tar content and the cohort parameter were projected by autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) estimation. The optimal exposure variable was found to be the product of average tar content and adult cigarette consumption per capita, lagged for 2530 years for both males and females in all 4 countries. The coefficient of the product of average tar content and tobacco consumption per capita differs by age and sex. In all models, there was a statistically significant difference in the coefficient of the period variable by sex. In all countries, male age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates peaked in the 1980s and declined thereafter. Female mortality rates are projected to peak in the first decade of this century. The multiplicative models of age, tobacco exposure and cohort fit the observed data between 1950 and 1999 reasonably well, and time-series models yield plausible past trends of relevant variables. Despite a significant reduction in tobacco consumption and average tar content of cigarettes sold over the past few decades, the effect on lung cancer mortality is affected by the time lag between exposure and established disease. As a result, the burden of lung cancer among females is only just reaching, or soon will reach, its peak but has been declining for I to 2 decades in men. Future sex differences in lung cancer mortality are likely to be greater in North America than Australia and the UK due to differences in exposure patterns between the sexes. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Dam break wave of thixotropic fluid

Thixotropy is the characteristic of a fluid to form a gelled structure over time when it is not subjected to shearing, and to liquefy when agitated. Thixotropic fluids are commonly used in the construction industry (e.g., liquid concrete and drilling fluids), and related applications include some forms of mud flows and debris flows. This paper describes a basic study of dam break wave with thixotropic fluid. Theoretical considerations were developed based upon a kinematic wave approximation of the Saint-Venant equations down a prismatic sloping channel. A very simple thixotropic model, which predicts the basic theological trends of such fluids, was used. It describes the instantaneous state of fluid structure by a single parameter. The analytical solution of the basic flow motion and theology equations predicts three basic flow regimes depending upon the fluid properties and flow conditions, including the initial degree of jamming of the fluid (related to its time of restructuration at rest). These findings were successfully compared with systematic bentonite suspension experiments. The present work is the first theoretical analysis combining the basic principles of unsteady flow motion with a thixotropic fluid model and systematic laboratory experiments.

Cattle, crops and clearing: Regional drivers of landscape change in the Brigalow Belt, Queensland, Australia, 1840-2004

Landscape change occurs through the interaction of a multitude of natural and human driving forces at a range of organisational levels, with humans playing an increasingly dominant role in many regions of the world. Building on the current knowledge of the underlying drivers of landscape change, a conceptual framework of regional landscape change was developed which integrated population, economic and cultural values, policy and science/technology. Using the Southern Brigalow Belt biogeographic region of Queensland as a case study, the role of natural and human drivers in landscape change was investigated in four phases of settlement since 1840. The Brigalow Belt has experienced comparable rates of vegetation clearance over the past 50 years to areas of tropical deforestation. Economic factors were important during all phases of development, but the five regional drivers often acted in synergy. Environmental constraints played a significant role in slowing rates of change. Temporal trends of deforestation followed a sigmoidal curve, with initial slow change accelerating though the middle phases then slowing in recent times. Future landscape management needs to take account of the influence of all the components of the conceptual framework, at a range of organisational levels, if more ecologically sustainable outcomes are to be achieved. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Alpha-cellulose δ13C variation in mangrove tree rings correlates well with annual sea level trend between 1982 and 1999

A pilot study of tree rings in a modern mangrove tree (Rhizophora apiculata) from Leizhou Peninsula, northern South China Sea shows that ( 1) the tree-rings are annual; ( 2) the ring widths decrease; and ( 3) their alpha-cellulose delta(13)C values increase from 1982 to 1999 AD, consistent with the trends of annual sea level, salinity and sea surface temperatures in the same period. We propose that such changes were caused by increasingly longer duration of waterlogging in response to sea-level rise. If this is the case, alpha-cellulose delta(13)C in mangrove tree rings can be used as a potential indicator of past sea level fluctuations.

Factors underlying support or opposition to biotechnology among Australian food consumers and implications for retailer-led food regulation

Despite current findings that consumers, on average, have negative attitudes to biotechnologies such as cloning and genetic engineering, considerable variability can be found in the direction and strength of these attitudes. This paper presents a path analysis of attitudinal, motivational, demographic and behavioural variables that influence consumer dispositions towards biotechnology. Among these variables, those found to be most important were: consumers' level of motivation to find natural foods; the extent to which they were motivated by convenience; whether they did the shopping for their household on a regular basis; and their sex. In terms of direct effects on dispositions to biotechnology, motivation to find natural foods had a very strong negative effect while convenience had a very strong positive effect. Sex had a moderate direct effect with women less likely to be positively disposed towards biotechnology than men. In an apparent contradiction, taking responsibility for household shopping had an equally strong positive effect on both naturalness and convenience. However, sex also played a crucial role here with a very strong effect on motivation to find natural foods (women more motivated), a minor effect on convenience (women less motivated) and a strong effect on responsibility for household shopping (women more likely to shop). The policy implications of these findings are important, given the apparent oppositional trends of some sections of the food industry to endorse biotechnology, and of the supermarkets to deliver `clean and green' non-GM foods to consumers. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reweaving the Silk Road through outsourcing and offshoring: The need for an externalisation theory

The reweaving and repaving of the modern Silk Road passes through outsourcing and offshoring activities that have a profound impact on both global business psyche and landscape. Firms, in particular, and their global value chain are being shaped and reshaped through a complex concoction of vertical integration and disintegration. The boundary of the firm and the firm/market interface has been of interest to students of organisation and economics for some time. It has provided the context for Internalisation Theory. Within the new economy, the twin trends of globalisation and advancing technologies are giving rise to a hitherto unknown “worldwide market for market transactions? and increased opportunities for international expansion by firms via market-based modes of organisation. We describe these trends and offer an early modeling approach for explaining why some firm’s externalise the marginal transaction in the so-called new economy. The paper further draws attention on the need to articulate an “Externalisation Theory? that adequately accounts for the firm’s offshoring and outsourcing activities, and that parallels as well as complement “Internalisation Theory? for a full explanation of today’s firms behaviour.