The cost of life expectancy and the implicit social valuation of life

A new method of estimating the economic value of life is proposed. Using cross-country data, an equation is estimated to explain life expectancy as a function of real consumption of goods and services. The associated cost function for life expectancy in terms of the prices of specific goods and services is used to estimate the cost of a reduction in age-specific mortality rates sufficient to save the life of one person. The cost of saving a life in OECD countries is as much as 1000 times that in the poorest countries. Ethical implications are discussed.

Bimanual aiming and overt attention: one law for two hands

Reaching to interact with an object requires a compromise between the speed of the limb movement and the required end-point accuracy. The time it takes one hand to move to a target in a simple aiming task can be predicted reliably from Fitts' law, which states that movement time is a function of a combined measure of amplitude and accuracy constraints (the index of difficulty, ID). It has been assumed previously that Fitts' law is violated in bimanual aiming movements to targets of unequal ID. We present data from two experiments to show that this assumption is incorrect: if the attention demands of a bimanual aiming task are constant then the movements are well described by a Fitts' law relationship. Movement time therefore depends not only on ID but on other task conditions, which is a basic feature of Fitts' law. In a third experiment we show that eye movements are an important determinant of the attention demands in a bimanual aiming task. The results from the third experiment extend the findings of the first two experiments and show that bimanual aiming often relies on the strategic co-ordination of separate actions into a seamless behaviour. A number of the task specific strategies employed by the adult human nervous system were elucidated in the third experiment. The general strategic pattern observed in the hand trajectories was reflected by the pattern of eye movements recorded during the experiment. The results from all three experiments demonstrate that eye movements must be considered as an important constraint in bimanual aiming tasks.

Women's satisfaction with general practice consultations

Objective: To determine women's satisfaction with general practice services. Design: Cross-sectional postal questionnaire conducted during April to September 1996 (part of the baseline survey of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health). Participants: Women aged 18-22 (n=14739), 45-49 (n=14013) and 70-74 (n=12941) years, randomly selected from the Medicare database, with oversampling of women from rural and remote areas. Main outcome measures: Frequency of use of general practice services; satisfaction with the most recent visit to a general practitioner (CP), prevalence of selected symptoms; preference for a female doctor. Results: The most recent visit to a GP was rated overall as good, very good or excellent by more than 80% of women, with increasing levels of satisfaction with increasing age of the women. However, satisfaction was lower for waiting room time and cost of the visit. A third of the young and middle-aged women living in rural and remote areas were dissatisfied with the cost of the visit. Young women were more likely to prefer a female doctor, and many were dissatisfied with their GP's skills at explaining their problem and giving them a chance to give an opinion and ask questions. The most prevalent symptoms for all women included headaches and tiredness, and many were not satisfied with the health services available to help them deal with these symptoms. Conclusions: Australian women have high levels of satisfaction with GP consultations. However, more effective strategies may be needed to improve communication with younger women, and there is an unmet need for services to help all women deal with some common symptoms. Dissatisfaction with cost of services and women's preference for female doctors have implications for future health policy.

A state-contingent production approach to principal-agent problems with an application to point-source pollution control

Two basic representations of principal-agent relationships, the 'state-space' and 'parameterized distribution' formulations, have emerged. Although the state-space formulation appears more natural, analytical studies using this formulation have had limited success. This paper develops a state-space formulation of the moral-hazard problem using a general representation of production under uncertainty. A closed-form solution for the agency-cost problem is derived. Comparative-static results are deduced. Next we solve the principal's problem of selecting the optimal output given the agency-cost function. The analysis is applied to the problem of point-source pollution control. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Sensor scheduling in electronic support using Markov chains

In electronic support, receivers must maintain surveillance over the very wide portion of the electromagnetic spectrum in which threat emitters operate. A common approach is to use a receiver with a relatively narrow bandwidth that sweeps its centre frequency over the threat bandwidth to search for emitters. The sequence and timing of changes in the centre frequency constitute a search strategy. The search can be expedited, if there is intelligence about the operational parameters of the emitters that are likely to be found. However, it can happen that the intelligence is deficient, untrustworthy or absent. In this case, what is the best search strategy to use? A random search strategy based on a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) is proposed. When the search is conducted for emitters with a periodic scan, it is shown that there is an optimal configuration for the CTMC. It is optimal in the sense that the expected time to intercept an emitter approaches linearity most quickly with respect to the emitter's scan period. A fast and smooth approach to linearity is important, as other strategies can exhibit considerable and abrupt variations in the intercept time as a function of scan period. In theory and numerical examples, the optimum CTMC strategy is compared with other strategies to demonstrate its superior properties.

Accuracy and cost- and time-effectiveness of digital clip versus videotape interpretation of echocardiograms in patients with valvular disease

Background. Although digital and videotaped images are known to be comparable for the evaluation of left ventricular function, their relative accuracy for assessment of more complex anatomy is unclear. We sought to compare reading time, storage costs, and concordance of video and digital interpretations across multiple observers and sites. Methods. One hundred one patients with valvular (90 mitral, 48 aortic, 80 tricuspid) disease were selected prospectively, and studies were stored according to video and standardized digital protocols. The same reviewer interpreted video and digital images independently and at different times with the use of a standard report form to evaluate 40 items (eg, severity of stenosis or regurgitation, leaflet thickening, and calcification) as normal or mildly, moderately, or severely abnormal Concordance between modalities was expressed at kappa Major discordance (difference of >1 level of severity) was ascribed to the modality that gave the lesser severity. CD-ROM was used to store digital data (20:1 lossy compression), and super-VHS video-tape was used to store video data The reading time and storage costs for each modality were compared Results. Measured parameters were highly concordant (ejection fraction was 52% +/- 13% by both). Major discordance was rare, and lesser values were reported with digital rather than video interpretation in the categories of aortic and mitral valve thicken ing (1% to 2%) and severity of mitral regurgitation (2%). Digital reading time was 6.8 +/- 2.4 minutes, 38% shorter than with video (11.0 +/- 3.0, range 8 to 22 minutes, P < .001). Compressed digital studies had an average size of 60 <plus/minus> 14 megabytes (range 26 to 96 megabytes). Storage cost for video was A$0.62 per patient (18 studies per tape, total cost A$11.20), compared with A$0.31 per patient for digital storage (8 studies per CD-ROM, total cost A$2.50). Conclusion. Digital and video interpretation were highly concordant; in the few cases of major discordance, the digital scores were lower, perhaps reflecting undersampling. Use of additional views and longer clips may be indicated to minimize discordance with video in patients with complex problems. Digital interpretation offers a significant reduction in reading times and the cost of archiving.

Life-cycle preferences over consumption and health: when is cost-effectiveness analysis equivalent to cost-benefit analysis?

This paper studies life-cycle preferences over consumption and health status. We show that cost-effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost-benefit analysis if the Lifetime utility function is additive over time, multiplicative in the utility of consumption and the utility of health status, and if the utility of consumption is constant over time. We derive the conditions under which the lifetime utility function takes this form, both under expected utility theory and under rank-dependent utility theory, which is currently the most important nonexpected utility theory. If cost-effectiveness analysis is consistent with cost-benefit analysis, it is possible to derive tractable expressions for the willingness to pay for quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The willingness to pay for QALYs depends on wealth, remaining life expectancy, health status, and the possibilities for intertemporal substitution of consumption. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Autonomic activity during human sleep as a function of time and sleep stage

While there is a developing understanding of the influence of sleep on cardiovascular autonomic activity in humans, there remain unresolved issues. In particular, the effect of time within the sleep period, independent of sleep stage, has not been investigated. Further, the influence of sleep on central sympathetic nervous system (SNS) activity is uncertain because results using the major method applicable to humans, the low frequency (LF) component of heart rate Variability (HRV), have been contradictory, and because the method itself is open to criticism. Sleep and cardiac activity were measured in 14 young healthy subjects on three nights. Data was analysed in 2-min epochs. All epochs meeting specified criteria were identified, beginning 2 h before, until 7 h after, sleep onset. Epoch values were allocated to 30-min bins and during sleep were also classified into stage 2, slow wave sleep (SWS) and rapid eye movement (REM) sleep. The measures of cardiac activity were heart irate (HR), blood pressure (BP), high frequency (HF) and LF components of HRV and pre-ejection period (PEP). During non-rapid eye movement (NREM) sleep autonomic balance shifted from sympathetic to parasympathetic dominance, although this appeared to be more because of a shift in parasympathetic nervous system (PNS) activity. Autonomic balance during REM was in general similar to wakefulness. For BP and the HF and LF components the change occurred abruptly at sleep onset and was then constant over time within each stage of sleep, indicating that any change in autonomic balance over the sleep period is a consequence of the changing distribution of sleep stages. Two variables, HR and PEP, did show time effects reflecting a circadian influence over HR and perhaps time asleep affecting PEP. While both the LF component and PEP showed changes consistent with reduced sympathetic tone during sleep, their pattern of change over time differed.

Dormancy release in Lolium rigidum seeds is a function of thermal after-ripening time and seed water content

Dormancy release in seeds of Lolium rigidum Gaud. (annual ryegrass) was investigated in relation to temperature and seed water content. Freshly matured seeds were collected from cropping fields at Wongan Hills and Merredin, Western Australia. Seeds from Wongan Hills were equilibrated to water contents between 6 and 18% dry weight and after-ripened at constant temperatures between 9 and 50degreesC for up to 23 weeks. Wongan Hills and Merredin seeds at water contents between 7 and 17% were also after-ripened in full sun or shade conditions. Dormancy was tested at regular intervals during after-ripening by germinating seeds on agar at 12-h alternating 15degreesC (dark) and 25degreesC (light) periods. Rate of dormancy release for Wongan Hills seeds was a positive linear function of after-ripening temperature above a base temperature (T-b) of 5.4degreesC. A thermal after-ripening time model for dormancy loss accounting for seed moisture in the range 6-18% was developed using germination data for Wongan Hills seeds after-ripened at constant temperatures. The model accurately predicted dormancy release for Wongan Hills seeds after-ripened under naturally fluctuating temperatures. Seeds from Merredin responded similarly but had lower dormancy at collection and a faster rate of dormancy release in seeds below 9% water content.

Mass balance characterisation of Al-7Si-Mg alloy microstructures as a function of solution treatment time

Mass balance calculations were performed to model the effect of solution treatment time on A356 and A357 alloy microstructures. Image analysis and electron probe microanalysis were used to characterise microstructures and confirm model predictions. In as-cast microstructures, up to 8 times more Mg is tied up in the pi-phase than in Mg2Si. The dissolution of pi is accompanied by a corresponding increase in the amount of beta-phase. This causes the rate of pi dissolution to be limited by the rate of beta formation. It is predicted that solution treatments of the order of tens of minutes at 540degreesC produce near-maximum T6 yield strengths, and that Mg contents in excess of 0.52 wt% have no advantage.

A low-cost, easy-to-use, real-time power system simulator

We present the design rationale and basic workings of a low-cost, easy-to-use power system simulator developed to support investigations into human interface design for a hydropower plant. The power system simulator is based on three important components: models of power system components, a data repository, and human interface elements. Dynamic Data Exchange (DDE) allows simulator components to communicate with each other within the simulator. To construct the modules of the simulator we have combined the advantages of commercial software such as Matlab/Simulink, ActiveX Control, Visual Basic and Excel and integrated them in the simulator. An important advantage of our approach is that further components of the simulator now can be developed independently. An initial assessment of the simulator indicates it is fit for intended purpose.

Low-cost real-time gesture recognition

A major impediment to developing real-time computer vision systems has been the computational power and level of skill required to process video streams in real-time. This has meant that many researchers have either analysed video streams off-line or used expensive dedicated hardware acceleration techniques. Recent software and hardware developments have greatly eased the development burden of realtime image analysis leading to the development of portable systems using cheap PC hardware and software exploiting the Multimedia Extension (MMX) instruction set of the Intel Pentium chip. This paper describes the implementation of a computationally efficient computer vision system for recognizing hand gestures using efficient coding and MMX-acceleration to achieve real-time performance on low cost hardware.

Genetic algorithm based distance spectrum technique for performance union bound of space-time trellis coded OFDM

This paper derives the performance union bound of space-time trellis codes in orthogonal frequency division multiplexing system (STTC-OFDM) over quasi-static frequency selective fading channels based on the distance spectrum technique. The distance spectrum is the enumeration of the codeword difference measures and their multiplicities by exhausted searching through all the possible error event paths. Exhaustive search approach can be used for low memory order STTC with small frame size. However with moderate memory order STTC and moderate frame size the computational cost of exhaustive search increases exponentially, and may become impractical for high memory order STTCs. This requires advanced computational techniques such as Genetic Algorithms (GAS). In this paper, a GA with sharing function method is used to locate the multiple solutions of the distance spectrum for high memory order STTCs. Simulation evaluates the performance union bound and the complexity comparison of non-GA aided and GA aided distance spectrum techniques. It shows that the union bound give a close performance measure at high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). It also shows that GA sharing function method based distance spectrum technique requires much less computational time as compared with exhaustive search approach but with satisfactory accuracy.