Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.

Dynamic response of hysteretic systems with application to a system containing limited slip

A general class of single degree of freedom systems possessing rate-independent hysteresis is defined. The hysteretic behavior in a system belonging to this class is depicted as a sequence of single-valued functions; at any given time, the current function is determined by some set of mathematical rules concerning the entire previous response of the system. Existence and uniqueness of solutions are established and boundedness of solutions is examined.

An asymptotic solution procedure is used to derive an approximation to the response of viscously damped systems with a small hysteretic nonlinearity and trigonometric excitation. Two properties of the hysteresis loops associated with any given system completely determine this approximation to the response: the area enclosed by each loop, and the average of the ascending and descending branches of each loop.

The approximation, supplemented by numerical calculations, is applied to investigate the steady-state response of a system with limited slip. Such features as disconnected response curves and jumps in response exist for a certain range of system parameters for any finite amount of slip.

To further understand the response of this system, solutions of the initial-value problem are examined. The boundedness of solutions is investigated first. Then the relationship between initial conditions and resulting steady-state solution is examined when multiple steady-state solutions exist. Using the approximate analysis and numerical calculations, it is found that significant regions of initial conditions in the initial condition plane lead to the different asymptotically stable steady-state solutions.