Why Scotland needs more than just a new migration policy

The Scottish Executive has adopted a policy to combat Scotland's declining population by encouraging inward migration. Using a multi-state population model this paper presents nine long-term population scenarios for Scotland using three net international migration levels and three fertility paths. The results show inward migration can slow population decline but makes little difference to population ageing. Without a higher fertility rate Scotland's population will become demographically unsustainable. Our simulations show that a higher fertility rate substantially reduces the future ageing.

Evaluation of an accident and emergency teleconsultation service for north-east Scotland

We evaluated an accident and emergency teleconsultation service provided to 14 community hospitals in north-east Scotland. Each community hospital was equipped with a videoconferencing system and a document camera to allow transmission of radiographs. The network used 384 kbit/s ISDN connections. A total of 1392 teleconsultations were recorded during a 12-month study period. Seventy-seven per cent of patients (n=1072) were managed locally and 23% (n=320) were transferred to Aberdeen. The majority (95%) of teleconsultations were conducted on weekdays, and 90% of these occurred between the hours of 09:00 and 16:00. The mean delay in contacting a doctor was 9 min and the mean consultation time was 10 min. The majority of patients were suffering from fractures or suspected fractures of the limbs. Radiograph transmission was used in 75% of all teleconsultations. A high degree of satisfaction was recorded by all users of the service.

National survey of the prevalence, incidence, primary care burden, and treatment of heart failure in Scotland

Objective: To examine the epidemiology, primary care burden, and treatment of heart failure in Scotland, UK. Design: Cross sectional data from primary care practices participating in the Scottish continuous morbidity recording scheme between 1 April 1999 and 31 March 2000. Setting: 53 primary care practices ( 307 741 patients). Subjects: 2186 adult patients with heart failure. Results: The prevalence of heart failure in Scotland was 7.1 in 1000, increasing with age to 90.1 in 1000 among patients greater than or equal to 85 years. The incidence of heart failure was 2.0 in 1000, increasing with age to 22.4 in 1000 among patients greater than or equal to 85 years. For older patients, consultation rates for heart failure equalled or exceeded those for angina and hypertension. Respiratory tract infection was the most common comorbidity leading to consultation. Among men, 23% were prescribed a beta blocker, 11% spironolactone, and 46% an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor. The corresponding figures for women were 20% (p = 0.29 versus men), 7% (p = 0.02), and 34% (p < 0.001). Among patients, 75 years 26% were prescribed a β blocker, 11% spironolactone, and 50% an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor. The corresponding figures for patients &GE; 75 years were 19% (p = 0.04 versus patients < 75), 7% (p = 0.04), and 33% (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Heart failure is a common condition, especially with advancing age. In the elderly, the community burden of heart failure is at least as great as that of angina or hypertension. The high rate of concomitant respiratory tract infection emphasises the need for strategies to immunise patients with heart failure against influenza and pneumococcal infection. Drugs proven to improve survival in heart failure are used less frequently for elderly patients and women.

Influence of socioeconomic deprivation on the primary care burden and treatment of patients with a diagnosis of heart failure in general practice in Scotland: population based study

Objectives To examine whether there are socioeconomic gradients in die incidence, prevalence, treatment, and follow up of patients with heart failure in primary care. Design Population based study. Setting 53 general practices (307741 patients) participating in the Scottish continuous morbidity recording project between 1 April 1999 and 31 March 2000. Participants 2186 adults with heart failure. Main outcome measures Comorbid diagnoses, frequency of visits to general practitioner, and prescribed drugs. Results 2186 patients with heart failure were seen (prevalence 7.1 per 1000 population, incidence 2.0 per 1000 population). The age and sex standardised incidence of heart failure increased with greater socioeconomic deprivation, from 1.8 per 1000 population in the most affluent stratum to 2.6 per 1000 population in the most deprived stratum (odds ratio 1.44, P=0.0003). On average, patients were seen 2.4 times yearly, but follow up rates were less frequent with increasing socioeconomic deprivation (from 2.6 yearly in the most affluent subgroup to 2.0 yearly in the most deprived subgroup, P=0.00009). Overall, 812 (80.6%) patients were prescribed diuretics, 396 (39.3%) angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, 216 (21.4%) beta blockers, 208 (20.7%) digoxin, and 86 (8.5%) spironolactone. The wide discrepancies in prescribing between different general practices disappeared after adjustment for patient age and sex. Prescribing patterns did not vary by deprivation categories on univariate or multivariate analyses. Conclusions Compared with affluent patients, socioeconomically deprived patients were 44% more likely to develop heart failure but 23% less likely to see their general practitioner on an ongoing basis. Prescribed treatment did not differ across socioeconomic gradients.